DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 31st, 2015 at 9:30:51 AM permalink
I think this Saturday's edition of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct just became a trivia contest:

Fracture Knocks Far From Over Off Derby Trail

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90997/fracture-knocks-far-from-over-off-derby-trail#ixzz3VyuO448F

He was among the top 5 of those potentially able to actually win this this thing in Louisville in my estimation. And that would be why I never go into single digit or even low double digit odds on future wagers. Which translates to > $300 or so on the 'will-pay' of any single cold exacta combination. Only 4+ weeks left, but there will still be more knocked out of training. There always are.

ADDENDUM: Re-reviewing my future book wagers, I consider 40% of them to be very live, 40% more are technically live but realistically in some stage of wagering life-support from which I really don't expect them to make the gate for this, and 20% are definitely irreversibly declared out. At about a month out from the event, to me that's below average performance for my somewhat larger than normal Derby future book stable this year, though not by a lot. But we'll see about those last four words in about five and a half days.

RE-EDIT, to add some little stuff of a miscellaneous nature:

A late Derby nominee named Bidget's Big Luvy will be going in the Arkansas Derby a week from Saturday, according to his trainer (J.C. Englehart) in order to seek Kentucky Derby qualifying points, after decisively winning a "listed" (ungraded) $100k stakes at 9 furlongs at Laurel. His time in that was given a Beyer figure of 87, and I have him at an AWD of 7.2f, with above average (but not spectacular) wet track tendencies. He was previously 5th of 6 in the Hutchison behind Barbados, but did have some trouble in that race. He won't have any of my money.

Bolo just worked while being clocked at 4f in 464. I didn't see the work to have an opinion of how he went about it. I'd be tempted to say that was too much, too fast too close to Saturday, and not a good thing, but it was not even a "bullet" as it was 3rd of 31 working that distance at Santa Anita this morning. First was a John Sadler colt named Zinvarn that I know nothing about, 2nd was the older multiple graded stakes winner Warren's Veneda, and 4th fastest was Cross the Line, a graded stakes placed colt (on Tapeta at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real - AWD 6.8f) from Hollendorfer's stable who will also be going in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. So, I guess the track is very quick, and Carla Gaines has him quite fit.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
March 31st, 2015 at 4:50:20 PM permalink
Saturday April 4, 2015 - Keeneland - Blue Grass Stakes Grade 1 (11/8mile - 1 Million)

1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho - 1st,2nd,3rd Derby pool future horse.
2 - Gorgeous Bird - 2nd Derby pool future horse.
3 - Pepper Roani
4 - Unrivaled
5 - Carpe Diem - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - Frammento
7 - Classy Class - 1st Derby pool future horse.
8 - Danzig Moon - 3rd Derby pool future horse.

-This is a talented field of runners. Carpe Diem is Stakes proven over the course and is strictly the one to beat. This is his 2nd start of the year. After him....I have no idea.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 31st, 2015 at 7:06:50 PM permalink
Keeneland, Keeneland, racing horses on that most hallowed beautiful classy ground of KEENELAND, yippee! Next someone will try to claim that the Cardinals are about to start playing baseball, for reals, and I wouldn't be able to stand that much good news in one week.

So long as there's a bit of interest in my AWD pedigree numbers I'm happy to post them here for whatever use someone in this thread may find, particularly for a field in a race I'm working on anyways, so I've added them in an edit before each of the eight Bluegrass entries. I've also added what their pedigree data indicates to me about their likely ability to handle a wet "off" track; I decided to translate that to easily an easily digestible letter grade here from the 0-5 numerical output I have for each of them on that question. I understand there's some chance of a shower in Lexington, though so far not too high of a probability from the forecasts I've looked at.
Quote: Keeneone

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Keeneland - Blue Grass Stakes Grade 1 (11/8mile - 1 Million)

*EDIT for:
[Dist & Mud] - by DD
[7.3f & B- ] 1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho - 1st,2nd,3rd Derby pool future horse.
[7.0f & A- ] 2 - Gorgeous Bird - 2nd Derby pool future horse.
[6.9f & B+] 3 - Pepper Roani
[7.4f & B+] 4 - Unrivaled
[7.9f & B- ] 5 - Carpe Diem - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.0f & A- ] 6 - Frammento
[7.4f & B+] 7 - Classy Class - 1st Derby pool future horse.
[7.4f & B+] 8 - Danzig Moon - 3rd Derby pool future horse.

-This is a talented field of runners. Carpe Diem is Stakes proven over the course and is strictly the one to beat. This is his 2nd start of the year. After him....I have no idea.

RE-EDIT: Corrected numbers for Unrivaled with updated data.

And what are the chances of me finding a wagering pool that offers a sensible way to actually play Carpe Diem here? Eh. I seem to suck at forecasting the tote board before I see some of the money flows. Of course he doesn't need the points; he needs to continue to progress with distance & maturity to be ready for about another 6 lengths worth of stepping forward compared to his classmates when another month older and with another big furlong. Getting that last one of the ten at Churchill is a lot bigger and harder deal for everyone in it than handling each earlier increment of the added 8ths & fractions thereof throughout their preparation.

I haven't been able to come up with a clue as to what happened to Danzig Moon in his last. He went into it looking quite promising to me, and laid a large egg. I want a colt named Pepper Roani to make the gate at Churchill. Just because he's named Pepper Roani. I can be silly that way if I wanna.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
March 31st, 2015 at 7:56:39 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
And what are the chances of me finding a wagering pool that offers a sensible way to actually play Carpe Diem here? Eh. I seem to suck at forecasting the tote board before I see some of the money flows. Of course he doesn't need the points; he needs to continue to progress with distance & maturity to be ready for about another 6 lengths worth of stepping forward compared to his classmates when another month older and with another big furlong. Getting that last one of the ten at Churchill is a lot bigger and harder deal for everyone in it than handling each increment of the added 8ths throughout their preparation.

I haven't been able to come up with a clue as to what happened to Danzig Moon in his last. He went into it looking quite promising to me, and laid a large egg. I want a colt named Pepper Roani to make the gate at Churchill. Just because he's named Pepper Roani. I can be silly that way if I wanna.



Wow, great minds think alike....I guess:/
I think CDiem will be bet hard (less than even money). Who could run 2nd or possibly upset him is the question. I was also looking closely at the race and wondering about Danzig Moon. One may be able to get him @ around 85/1+ for the Derby. I like his 2nd @ 1 mile @ CD in the fall. I also find no excuses for his Tampa Bay Derby. He has 2 nice workouts since and is a lightly raced Canadian bred. Can he make up 12+ lengths on CDiem over a new surface....probably not, but maybe second is possible. I sense I may be "pushing it" with Danzig Moon, but he could be sneaky good....

Thanks for the AWDs.

Quote: DrawingDead

Bolo just worked while being clocked at 4f in 464. I didn't see the work to have an opinion of how he went about it. I'd be tempted to say that was too much, too fast too close to Saturday, and not a good thing, but it was not even a "bullet" as it was 3rd of 31 working that distance at Santa Anita this morning. First was a John Sadler colt named Zinvarn that I know nothing about, 2nd was the older multiple graded stakes winner Warren's Veneda, and 4th fastest was Cross the Line, a graded stakes placed colt (on Tapeta at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real - AWD 6.8f) from Hollendorfer's stable who will also be going in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. So, I guess the track is very quick, and Carla Gaines has him quite fit.


Even for Santa Anita, sub-47 seconds for 4 furlongs is lightning fast. IIRC, there was some discussion by Carla Gaines of a disrupted training schedule before the San Felipe (rain). Maybe this is an overcompensation for that? I do not think it will be an issue. It probably was a true "blowout" work by a talented horse. I believe he is primed for a great performance and only needs to improve a few lengths at the extended distance. Having Mike Smith back in the irons should not diminish Bolo's chances either.
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
April 1st, 2015 at 9:15:05 AM permalink
Is going to be a big Saturday but 8 need unrivaled to win or place in order for him to go to Churchill. I think Carpe diem is going to be tough but once he starts laboring in front, unrivaled will be finishing.

I don't mind that AWD figure of 7.4 either.

Roll on Saturday.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
April 1st, 2015 at 2:38:52 PM permalink
Saturday April 4, 2015 - Aqueduct - Wood Memorial Grade 1 (11/8mile - 1 Million)

1 - Tiz Shea D
2 - Toasting Master
3 - Lieutenant Colonel
4 - Frosted - 1st,2nd,4th Derby pool future horse.
5 - El Kabeir - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - Daredevil - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
7 - Tencendur

-With the unfortunate injury of Far From Over (my choice for the Wood) I kinda like El Kabier. This race will be run over the Main track @ Aqueduct and not over the inner track (like the previous Aqueduct Derby preps). Over the years the winterized inner track has shown a bias towards front running and speedy pressers. The Main track plays a little more even for the "off-the-pace" types. I am no expert on the AQU surface but I do look for more "off-the-pace" runners when the main track is in use. This is why I liked Far From Over and now El Kabier (if he can repeat his Gotham race). Florida shippers have done well recently (Royal Son,Dubai Sky,Stanford,MadeFromLucky,International Star trains @ GS) so Frosted and Daredevil are interesting additions. I am particularly interested in Frosted's race since he participated in the FOY @ GS. If he wins big in here, he will certainly flatter the Florida contingent (Upstart, Materiality, Itsaknockout) even more.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
April 1st, 2015 at 10:17:37 PM permalink
Saturday April 4, 2015 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Derby Grade 1 (11/8mile - 1 Million)

1 - Dortmund - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse. He has pretty much been the Derby favorite since November.
2 - One Lucky Dane
3 - Cross the Line
4 - Bolo - 4th Derby pool future horse.
5 - Prospect Park - 2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
6 - Bad Read Sanchez

-Dortmund has done literally nothing wrong and is the deserving favorite. Small field and I am picking Bolo here. 2nd dirt race, blowout work, extended distance, Mike Smith, and a solid pace to run at. An interesting angle (over the years of my limited wagering at Santa Anita) is to bet the other (longer odds) Baffert runner when he enters 2 in a race. That would be One Lucky Dane in here, but he has the look of a rabbit for Dortmund to chase.

-I was disappointed to not see Cyrus Alexander entered. Maybe he will go in the Arkansas Derby or maybe he is not ready (or good enough yet).
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
April 1st, 2015 at 11:15:23 PM permalink
Shug McGaughey has entered Gold Shield in race #4 at Aqueduct on the Wood undercard on Saturday, in a first level N1X allowance open to 3Y/Os & up at 9 furlongs. So with four weeks left and no qualifying points he can be effectively eliminated from Derby consideration, regardless of how he performs, though he continues to have a line quoted in some fixed odds future books.

In the quoted post on the Wood below I've inserted the same edits as for the Bluegrass, indicating the AWD of the pedigrees followed by a grade for mud/wet-track tendencies:
Quote: Keeneone

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Aqueduct - Wood Memorial Grade 1 (11/8mile - 1 Million)

[Dist & Mud] - edit inserted by DD
[7.7f B+] 1 - Tiz Shea D
[7.0f B .] 2 - Toasting Master
[6.7f A- ] 3 - Lieutenant Colonel
[7.4f A- ] 4 - Frosted - 1st,2nd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.2f B- ] 5 - El Kabeir - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.1f C+] 6 - Daredevil - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.1f B+] 7 - Tencendur

-With the unfortunate injury of Far From Over (my choice for the Wood) I kinda like El Kabier. This race will be run over the Main track @ Aqueduct and not over the inner track (like the previous Aqueduct Derby preps). Over the years the winterized inner track has shown a bias towards front running and speedy pressers. The Main track plays a little more even for the "off-the-pace" types. I am no expert on the AQU surface but I do look for more "off-the-pace" runners when the main track is in use. This is why I liked Far From Over and now El Kabier (if he can repeat his Gotham race). Florida shippers have done well recently (Royal Son,Dubai Sky,Stanford,MadeFromLucky,International Star trains @ GS) so Frosted and Daredevil are interesting additions. I am particularly interested in Frosted's race since he participated in the FOY @ GS. If he wins big in here, he will certainly flatter the Florida contingent (Upstart, Materiality, Itsaknockout) even more.

"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
April 1st, 2015 at 11:25:50 PM permalink
And I've inserted AWDs for each below:
Quote: Keeneone

Saturday April 4, 2015 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Derby Grade 1 (11/8mile - 1 Million)

[Dist] - Edit inserted by DD
[7.0f] 1 - Dortmund - 1st,2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse. He has pretty much been the Derby favorite since November.
[7.0f] 2 - One Lucky Dane
[6.8f] 3 - Cross the Line
[7.6f] 4 - Bolo - 4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.2f] 5 - Prospect Park - 2nd,3rd,4th Derby pool future horse.
[7.5f] 6 - Bad Read Sanchez

-Dortmund has done literally nothing wrong and is the deserving favorite. Small field and I am picking Bolo here. 2nd dirt race, blowout work, extended distance, Mike Smith, and a solid pace to run at. An interesting angle (over the years of my limited wagering at Santa Anita) is to bet the other (longer odds) Baffert runner when he enters 2 in a race. That would be One Lucky Dane in here, but he has the look of a rabbit for Dortmund to chase.

-I was disappointed to not see Cyrus Alexander entered. Maybe he will go in the Arkansas Derby or maybe he is not ready (or good enough yet).

"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
April 1st, 2015 at 11:39:12 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Shug McGauhey has entered Gold Shield in race #4 at Aqueduct on the Wood undercard on Saturday, in a first level allowance at 9 furlongs. So with four weeks left and no qualifying points he can be effectively eliminated from Derby consideration, regardless of how he performs, though he continues to have a line quoted in some fixed odds future books.

In the quoted post on the Wood below I've inserted the same edits as for the Bluegrass indicating AWD of the pedigrees followed by a grade for mud/wet-track tendencies:


I somehow missed Gold Shield's entry @ AQU. That stinks and is a bit strange. Why run him in a 3 years-old (and up) allowance (82k purse) 9 furlong event and not the Stakes race only for 3 year-olds with a million dollar purse at the same distance/same track/same day? Baffling.
----------

With 3 - 1million dollar races going this weekend we only get a total of 21 runners. You do not have to win one of the three to get into the gate at Churchill Downs. I may have overestimated the level of "Derby fever" owners and trainers get this time of year.
----------


Thank you for the AWDs (and mud grades) on all the weekend runners.

  • Jump to: