First Saturday in May
January 23rd, 2015 at 1:00:21 AM
permalink
Quote: KeeneoneIndeed, I think I remember him discussing South African racing/horses in past horsey threads (I could be wrong).
Indianaughty (Wynn 60/1, W Hill 100/1).
Dortmund (W Hill 12-1) This is the highest price I see for him.
Tomspur has been vewwy, vewwy, qwiet lately. Something about a new job, I think. Glad to see him back in action; I had a fun sidebet with him on last year's Derby and am hoping he might be interested again.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
January 23rd, 2015 at 6:43:37 PM
permalink
Big day at Gulfstream Park on Saturday:
Race 4 (1 turn mile AOC 75k)
2 - Gorgeous Bird (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1)
3 - Glenville Gardens (Wynn 250/1, W Hill 200/1)
4 - Morgans Harbour (W Hill 175/1)
5 - Mamilio (W Hill 200/1)
6 - Blame Game (Wynn 100/1)
7 - Overcontrol (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 50/1)
8 - Jack Tripp (W Hill 175/1)
People obviously like Overcontrol for the Derby (based on his futures odds) after one winning start @ 6.5 furlongs.
Race 6 (7 furlongs MSW)
14 - Khozan (Wynn 125/1)
Unraced as a 2 year old and is out for the first start of his career. Could he be the one to break the streak? I doubt it, but like his genes and hope the best for him.
Graded Stakes:
Race 7 Hutcheson- I obviously like Barbados, so will stick with that one. Would love to see a repeat of his last race, but the competition is getting stronger.
Race 9 Holy Bull - Solid field with a nice balance of new faces, stakes runners, and varied running styles. For this race, I think it sets up well for an off-the-pace type, therefore I like Keen Ice and Frosted. I look forward to seeing how it unfolds.
Race 4 (1 turn mile AOC 75k)
2 - Gorgeous Bird (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1)
3 - Glenville Gardens (Wynn 250/1, W Hill 200/1)
4 - Morgans Harbour (W Hill 175/1)
5 - Mamilio (W Hill 200/1)
6 - Blame Game (Wynn 100/1)
7 - Overcontrol (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 50/1)
8 - Jack Tripp (W Hill 175/1)
People obviously like Overcontrol for the Derby (based on his futures odds) after one winning start @ 6.5 furlongs.
Race 6 (7 furlongs MSW)
14 - Khozan (Wynn 125/1)
Unraced as a 2 year old and is out for the first start of his career. Could he be the one to break the streak? I doubt it, but like his genes and hope the best for him.
Graded Stakes:
Race 7 Hutcheson- I obviously like Barbados, so will stick with that one. Would love to see a repeat of his last race, but the competition is getting stronger.
Race 9 Holy Bull - Solid field with a nice balance of new faces, stakes runners, and varied running styles. For this race, I think it sets up well for an off-the-pace type, therefore I like Keen Ice and Frosted. I look forward to seeing how it unfolds.
January 23rd, 2015 at 10:52:14 PM
permalink
For the Holy Bull tomorrow, I keep going back and forth between Frosted and Bluegrass Singer. Bluegrass Singer hasn't gone 1 1/16 before and he was getting chased down a bit in his last two wins, so I'm leaning towards Frosted. Upstart finished 3rd at Santa Anita, but Santa Anita is running fast, probably add another second or two to that time. I'm kinda interested in seeing what Frammento does here. He finished second to Frosted his last race and was gaining on him at the end. That was with a jockey switch to Luis Saez. Anyways, I'm guessing..
1. Frosted
2. Bluegrass Singer
3. Frammento
4. Upstart
1. Frosted
2. Bluegrass Singer
3. Frammento
4. Upstart
January 23rd, 2015 at 11:02:06 PM
permalink
And there are four Todd Pletcher colts entered in those two early 3yo races on the Gulfstream undercard, including both morning line favorites. Because there can never be too many Pletcher 3yo prospects in Florida in January. O/U on number of Pletcher colts in Derby starting gate: 19.5
Looking at one forecast calling for "scattered showers" in Miami area with 20% chance of precipitation, and at another that now says thunderstorms throughout the day with 60% chance of rain. And my calculation of the weighted average of the pedigrees of those forecasters produces: a lame gelding named "No Clue Sanchez." Good luck.
Looking at one forecast calling for "scattered showers" in Miami area with 20% chance of precipitation, and at another that now says thunderstorms throughout the day with 60% chance of rain. And my calculation of the weighted average of the pedigrees of those forecasters produces: a lame gelding named "No Clue Sanchez." Good luck.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 23rd, 2015 at 11:38:52 PM
permalink
I like Frosted and don't mind playing against the buzz horse Upstart, but I need to get paid decently to bet him here. I won't consider betting Bluegrass Cat Singer but he scares me off considering a price shorter than 3:1 in the win pool. In spite of what I wrote about one-turn miles in discussing his last race earlier in this thread, this Cat has serious high-octane speed, and if he's allowed to shake loose from any cheap speed competition on the front end then that tends to be deadly at Gulfstream. At Belmont or Fair Grounds a stalker/closer can go get a loose leader on his own in the stretch after it set an unpressured pace, but you don't see that often at Gulfstream unless the surface is deeper than usual or has gotten "cuppy." If I play the race it may have to be underneath looking for leverage in pools other than straight up to win, with potential upside in the payout from having another heavily backed runner finishing off the board or out of the first two slots. There's plenty of dark horse potential in here, say from the excellent Canadian trainer Josie Carroll's colt listed at 30:1 on the morning line, for example.Quote: JyBrd0403For the Holy Bull tomorrow, I keep going back and forth between Frosted and Bluegrass Singer. Bluegrass Singer hasn't gone 1 1/16 before and he was getting chased down a bit in his last two wins, so I'm leaning towards Frosted. Upstart finished 3rd at Santa Anita, but Santa Anita is running fast, probably add another second or two to that time. I'm kinda interested in seeing what Frammento does here. He finished second to Frosted his last race and was gaining on him at the end. That was with a jockey switch to Luis Saez. Anyways, I'm guessing..
1. Frosted
2. Bluegrass Singer
3. Frammento
4. Upstart
I'd like to back Barbados in the Hutcheson but suspect he may be bet down to unplayable oblivion in a short field.
I'll look to really make my donuts in two turf races, if... if turf is still on the green stuff, and isn't a bog, and doesn't have the rail moved out to unpteen zillion feet which increases the probability of strangely run grass races with anomalous outcomes.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 24th, 2015 at 4:39:54 PM
permalink
Gulfstream results:
Race 4 (1 turn mile AOC 75k)
Gorgeous Bird won nicely and Overcontrol ran a clunker.
Race 6 (7 furlongs MSW)
Khozan ran great in this one. Will be interested to see what his handlers do next with him.
Graded Stakes:
Race 7
Barbados won against a stubborn X Y Jet. Another solid win for him, the only knock may be the final time. He actually ran the distance slower than Khozan in the previous race. After the race, Ownership said they will consider a longer distance (maybe the Fountain Of Youth).
Race 9
Upstart won going away off his winter layoff, Frosted looked a little green down the stretch. The fast pace never materialized like I thought it would. Upstart did run the distance one second faster than J S Bach did one week ago.
----------
We have 2 weeks until the next point races and the second Derby future pool.
Race 4 (1 turn mile AOC 75k)
Gorgeous Bird won nicely and Overcontrol ran a clunker.
Race 6 (7 furlongs MSW)
Khozan ran great in this one. Will be interested to see what his handlers do next with him.
Graded Stakes:
Race 7
Barbados won against a stubborn X Y Jet. Another solid win for him, the only knock may be the final time. He actually ran the distance slower than Khozan in the previous race. After the race, Ownership said they will consider a longer distance (maybe the Fountain Of Youth).
Race 9
Upstart won going away off his winter layoff, Frosted looked a little green down the stretch. The fast pace never materialized like I thought it would. Upstart did run the distance one second faster than J S Bach did one week ago.
----------
We have 2 weeks until the next point races and the second Derby future pool.
January 24th, 2015 at 10:28:08 PM
permalink
Good calls on Barbados and Upstart today. The buzz was right on the money with Upstart. Those Palm Meadows works must have been pretty impressive. I thought he looked really good today, probably one of the best so far.
January 24th, 2015 at 11:00:07 PM
permalink
Well that was interesting.
Barbados got a figure of 92 from Beyer for his win in the Hutcheson.
Khozan, being a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare who was herself a multiple graded stakes winner, was bred with a Saturday feature race at Churchill in May in mind. The AWD is 7.4f, which for comparison happens to be a little more stout for going a distance of ground than Orb, among others. And he ran like someone paid $1,000,000 for him at Fasig-Tipton. Which they did. Extrapolating from the time of his race vs. the 92 figure put up in the Grade 3 stakes race at the same distance immediately afterward, he'll probably end up with about a 98 or 99 speed figure from that. When breaking his maiden. First time out.
Upstart got a 105 for the Holy Bull. That is incredible for a 3yo in January going two-turns. If you project him to carry the same thing all the way out to a mile and a quarter, which is a pretty big thing to project, it is close to the median Kentucky Derby winning figure in recent years. Every year there is one horse on a personal mission to screw with me, and he is this year's designated special annoyance. Nothing I do to predict the outcome of races works with this one; so far, I am always wrong about Upstart's races, every time. There's no way I'd ever consider betting him to go 10 furlongs, I don't take him seriously as a potential Derby winner at all, and if he gets there I will absolutely want to bet against him winning the thing with both fists. Which means somebody should probably start decorating his stall with roses tonight.
Here is Barbados in the Hutcheson:
And here is Upstart sneering and laughing at me as he frolics in the stretch in the Holy Bull:
Barbados got a figure of 92 from Beyer for his win in the Hutcheson.
Khozan, being a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare who was herself a multiple graded stakes winner, was bred with a Saturday feature race at Churchill in May in mind. The AWD is 7.4f, which for comparison happens to be a little more stout for going a distance of ground than Orb, among others. And he ran like someone paid $1,000,000 for him at Fasig-Tipton. Which they did. Extrapolating from the time of his race vs. the 92 figure put up in the Grade 3 stakes race at the same distance immediately afterward, he'll probably end up with about a 98 or 99 speed figure from that. When breaking his maiden. First time out.
Upstart got a 105 for the Holy Bull. That is incredible for a 3yo in January going two-turns. If you project him to carry the same thing all the way out to a mile and a quarter, which is a pretty big thing to project, it is close to the median Kentucky Derby winning figure in recent years. Every year there is one horse on a personal mission to screw with me, and he is this year's designated special annoyance. Nothing I do to predict the outcome of races works with this one; so far, I am always wrong about Upstart's races, every time. There's no way I'd ever consider betting him to go 10 furlongs, I don't take him seriously as a potential Derby winner at all, and if he gets there I will absolutely want to bet against him winning the thing with both fists. Which means somebody should probably start decorating his stall with roses tonight.
Here is Barbados in the Hutcheson:
And here is Upstart sneering and laughing at me as he frolics in the stretch in the Holy Bull:
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 25th, 2015 at 12:57:43 AM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDead-snip-
I'll look to really make my donuts in two turf races, if... if turf is still on the green stuff, and isn't a bog, and doesn't have the rail moved out to unpteen zillion feet which increases the probability of strangely run grass races with anomalous outcomes.
The rail was 24 feet out! Speaking of the turf events @ Gulfstream on Saturday....Did you see Consumer Credit's closing kick down the lane? Wow. I believe someone mentioned her (I will do a search but am feeling a bit lazy at the moment) on WOV in the past when she was attempting to break her maiden.
----------
Khozan's race was impressive, but will he turn out to be another Cyrus Alexander? Great breeding, big money, but a little late for the Derby? He does have a win, but why didn't he race as a 2 year old? I am sure there are reasons.
Upstart has one of the lower AWD #'s that you have posted in this thread (6.9). Visually I was not in love with the race as a whole (mostly because of the pace). Many horseplayers (myself included) tend to focus on why a horse loses and not credit one for winning. I am certainly not "all-in" on Upstart, but respect his accomplishments. Whenever I think about Upstart I wonder where Daredevil is. He actually beat Upstart and El Kabeir in New York (G1 Champagne), but ran a clunker in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I actually do know where Daredevil is....he is in training in S. Florida.
January 25th, 2015 at 4:18:21 PM
permalink
She came home the last furlong in roughly 22-4/5th, and 11 flat for the final fraction, for a final of 1:35-4/5ths. It was truly explosive acceleration when Zayas pushed the button on her, not the common optical illusion produced by a field coming back to her. In the 11th race males ran their turf stakes at the same mile with the same rail placement in the $100k Kitten's Joy in 24 flat, 12 flat, and a final of 1:36 flat.Quote: KeeneoneDid you see Consumer Credit's closing kick down the lane?
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 25th, 2015 at 9:52:49 PM
permalink
Here is an update of the first pool Derby hopefuls (betting closed - 11/30/2014):
Key:
WO = Has at least one published workout since 11/30/2014.
Raced = Has completed a race since 11/30/2014.
X = No data found.
1 American Pharoah - X
2 Blofeld - X
3 Calculator - WO, Raced-G3 winner.
4 Carpe Diem - WO
5 Classy Class - WO
6 Competitive Edge - WO
7 Daredevil - WO
8 Dortmund - WO, Raced-G1 winner.
9 Eagle - WO, Raced G3-7th place.
10 El Kabeir - WO, Raced G1-winner.
11 Frosted - WO, Raced G2-2nd place.
12 I Spent It - X
13 Imperia - WO
14 Lord Nelson - WO
15 Lucky Player - WO, Raced Stakes-8th place.
16 Mr. Z - WO, Raced G1 3rd place and Stakes-3rd place.
17 Ocho Ocho Ocho - X
18 Ostrolenka - WO, Raced G3-5th place.
19 Punctuate - WO
20 Texas Red - WO
21 The Great War - WO, entered to race @ Turfway 1/31 Race 6 (Stakes race)
22 Unblunted - WO, Raced G3-7th place.
23 Upstart - WO, Raced G2-winner.
24 All Others 3YOs - International Star, Far Right, and Leave the Light On are notable field horses.
The next pool will open February 6-8 and will certainly show added horses and dropped horses. The Withers @ Aqueduct, and Robert B Lewis @ Santa Anita will also be run that weekend. The winning (and maybe placed) runners from these races will get lots of play in the second pool.
Key:
WO = Has at least one published workout since 11/30/2014.
Raced = Has completed a race since 11/30/2014.
X = No data found.
1 American Pharoah - X
2 Blofeld - X
3 Calculator - WO, Raced-G3 winner.
4 Carpe Diem - WO
5 Classy Class - WO
6 Competitive Edge - WO
7 Daredevil - WO
8 Dortmund - WO, Raced-G1 winner.
9 Eagle - WO, Raced G3-7th place.
10 El Kabeir - WO, Raced G1-winner.
11 Frosted - WO, Raced G2-2nd place.
12 I Spent It - X
13 Imperia - WO
14 Lord Nelson - WO
15 Lucky Player - WO, Raced Stakes-8th place.
16 Mr. Z - WO, Raced G1 3rd place and Stakes-3rd place.
17 Ocho Ocho Ocho - X
18 Ostrolenka - WO, Raced G3-5th place.
19 Punctuate - WO
20 Texas Red - WO
21 The Great War - WO, entered to race @ Turfway 1/31 Race 6 (Stakes race)
22 Unblunted - WO, Raced G3-7th place.
23 Upstart - WO, Raced G2-winner.
24 All Others 3YOs - International Star, Far Right, and Leave the Light On are notable field horses.
The next pool will open February 6-8 and will certainly show added horses and dropped horses. The Withers @ Aqueduct, and Robert B Lewis @ Santa Anita will also be run that weekend. The winning (and maybe placed) runners from these races will get lots of play in the second pool.
January 26th, 2015 at 9:12:08 PM
permalink
I see Khozan has been given a 102 Beyer for his maiden breaker. Yikes.
http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/race-info/news/gulfstream-park-news-notes-94
I wondered the same & thought his work tab wasn't telling me much one way or the other. Here's the only answer I've seen:Quote: Keeneone...but why didn't he race as a 2 year old? I am sure there are reasons.
Quote: Gulfstream Park News & Notes (1/25)“He had some baby stuff at 2, and he has a pedigree that suggests he was going to get better as he got older. We just kind of took our time,” Pletcher said. “Al Shaqab is very patient. They bought a nice horse and they were in no rush with him, so we just kind of waited until he told us he was ready. He showed us it was the right time after his last couple works. He showed up and ran up to expectations.”
http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/race-info/news/gulfstream-park-news-notes-94
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 26th, 2015 at 9:30:52 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadI see Khozan has been given a 102 Beyer for his maiden breaker. Yikes.I wondered the same & thought his work tab wasn't telling me much one way or the other. Here's the only answer I've seen:
http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/race-info/news/gulfstream-park-news-notes-94
Good information, thank you for posting. I don't remember ever seeing a 102 Beyer in a MSW race in my years of read of the Daily Racing Form. Wow, is all I can say about that #. Khozan's 102 vs Upstart's 105 on the same day (different distance) is very impressive. It will be entertaining to see how Khozan progresses in the future....
January 26th, 2015 at 11:13:58 PM
permalink
I guess if you can pay a million for something that has never been anywhere near a starting gate, you can probably pay for his oats while he spends an extra six months to a year in the barn growing up. If it isn't the only spare million you have to horse around with.
And if your trainer has more than a few other horses earning checks & paying the light bill.
And if your trainer has more than a few other horses earning checks & paying the light bill.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 26th, 2015 at 11:48:58 PM
permalink
I know you put the over/under on Pletcher runners @ 19.5 for the Derby, but I feel you may have forgot a recent change. 24 horses can now be officially entered for the race. 20 guaranteed runners with 4 "also eligible" runners (to fill in for late scratches). You may want to shift the line to 20....
January 27th, 2015 at 11:21:49 AM
permalink
*snicker*
The PEIC (Pletcher Equine Industrial Complex) even has secondary & tertiary spinoffs. Maybe you've seen the spoof Twitter account:
And BloodHorse published a long feature article discussing, among other things, what Todd thinks about NotTheToddster.
The PEIC (Pletcher Equine Industrial Complex) even has secondary & tertiary spinoffs. Maybe you've seen the spoof Twitter account:
https://twitter.com/notthetoddsterQuote: Twitter @NotTheToddsterThe #Lunareclipseaward for Outstanding trainer who can only name 40% or less of his stable goes to Todd Pletcher. Congrats Fletch!
And BloodHorse published a long feature article discussing, among other things, what Todd thinks about NotTheToddster.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:42:56 PM
permalink
Barbados is out:
http://www.drf.com/news/multiple-stakes-winner-barbados-undergo-minor-knee-surgery
We shall now observe a moment of silence for someone's future book ticket.
< ... >
Thank-you; carry on.
Quote: Marty McGee @Daily Racing FormMultiple stakes winner Barbados to undergo minor knee surgery
“Hopefully we’ll have him back in light training by the first of May or so and be able to have a nice second half of the year with him,” said Tomlinson...
http://www.drf.com/news/multiple-stakes-winner-barbados-undergo-minor-knee-surgery
We shall now observe a moment of silence for someone's future book ticket.
< ... >
Thank-you; carry on.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 28th, 2015 at 6:15:29 PM
permalink
Boo. Unfortunately this is part of the process, but I am glad to hear he should be able to run in the future. Onward to the other runners....
----------
1/30 - Santa Anita race #3 (AOC 80k - 1mile)
1 - Prospect Park (Wynn 100/1, W. Hill 150/1)
2 - The Gomper (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 40/1, Westgate 75/1)
3 - St Joe Bay (Wynn 300)
4 - Rockinatten (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 150/1)
5 - Iancol (W. Hill 150/1)
Nice field of futures listed horses, with a lot of betting interest on The Gomper.
----------
1/30 - Santa Anita race #3 (AOC 80k - 1mile)
1 - Prospect Park (Wynn 100/1, W. Hill 150/1)
2 - The Gomper (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 40/1, Westgate 75/1)
3 - St Joe Bay (Wynn 300)
4 - Rockinatten (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 150/1)
5 - Iancol (W. Hill 150/1)
Nice field of futures listed horses, with a lot of betting interest on The Gomper.
January 28th, 2015 at 9:30:37 PM
permalink
Saturday Jan. 31st has a number of watchable races:
Turfway Park race #6 (Stakes 75k - 6.5 furlongs):
#6 The Great War (Wynn 75/1, Westgate 100/1)
First Derby pool horse making his return in a synthetic sprint for W. Ward.
----------
Oaklawn Park race #7 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#9 Leitrim (Wynn 125/1)
----------
Tampa Bay Downs race #2 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#8 Quiet Ray (Wynn 225/1, Westgate 150/1)
Tampa Bay Downs race #11 Sam F Davis Stakes (G3 250k - 1 1/16 mile)
#1 Catalina Red (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 125/1)
#2 Royal Son (Wynn 85/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 60/1)
#3 Ami's Flatter (Wynn 125/1)
#4 Crittenden (Wynn 175/1)
#5 Divining Rod (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1)
#6 Bandages (Wynn 150/1)
#9 My Johnny Be Good (Wynn 125/1)
#11 Ocean Knight (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 30/1, Westgate 30/1)
#12 Bears Personality (Wynn 225/1, W Hill 175/1)
This race is the prelude to the Tampa Bay Derby and certainly can be an important race (even though it earns no Derby points). Catalina Red stretches out after his Pasco Stakes record performance. With the rail he could lead right out of the gate, but can he go the distance? X Y Jet performed well in the Hutcheson and flatters this one a bit. Royal Son has been mentioned before (Pletcher + Johnny V). Ocean Knight is getting play in the futures after a winning sprint @ Aqueduct and very good workouts. I gave My Johnny Be Good a closer look. Solid field and a great betting race if you can find one you really like....I wonder if DD will call this the best prep race so far??? (j/k)
Turfway Park race #6 (Stakes 75k - 6.5 furlongs):
#6 The Great War (Wynn 75/1, Westgate 100/1)
First Derby pool horse making his return in a synthetic sprint for W. Ward.
----------
Oaklawn Park race #7 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#9 Leitrim (Wynn 125/1)
----------
Tampa Bay Downs race #2 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#8 Quiet Ray (Wynn 225/1, Westgate 150/1)
Tampa Bay Downs race #11 Sam F Davis Stakes (G3 250k - 1 1/16 mile)
#1 Catalina Red (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 125/1)
#2 Royal Son (Wynn 85/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 60/1)
#3 Ami's Flatter (Wynn 125/1)
#4 Crittenden (Wynn 175/1)
#5 Divining Rod (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1)
#6 Bandages (Wynn 150/1)
#9 My Johnny Be Good (Wynn 125/1)
#11 Ocean Knight (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 30/1, Westgate 30/1)
#12 Bears Personality (Wynn 225/1, W Hill 175/1)
This race is the prelude to the Tampa Bay Derby and certainly can be an important race (even though it earns no Derby points). Catalina Red stretches out after his Pasco Stakes record performance. With the rail he could lead right out of the gate, but can he go the distance? X Y Jet performed well in the Hutcheson and flatters this one a bit. Royal Son has been mentioned before (Pletcher + Johnny V). Ocean Knight is getting play in the futures after a winning sprint @ Aqueduct and very good workouts. I gave My Johnny Be Good a closer look. Solid field and a great betting race if you can find one you really like....I wonder if DD will call this the best prep race so far??? (j/k)
January 28th, 2015 at 10:38:28 PM
permalink
Maybe not, but I have been wanting to see how Ocean Knight runs back, especially over a route of ground, and will call it a furlong better than that AOC at Santa Anita the day before with only five entered. Is a field of five really the best they can do nowadays in SoCal for filling a basic staple of racing, for the horses on the grounds that have some degree of hope for moving up rather than just along, in what amounts to a first level "non-winners other than" going a flat mile? Purse money is paid down to 5th place for crissakes, so just entering and stumbling along last to eventually fall across the wire will get a check for about two-grand. Tampa has put together an above average card (for them) on Saturday with several stakes, two graded, and a handful of allowance and straight maiden contests, besides the usual cheap claimers with arthritic eight year-old geldings competing to see who has the best magic vet to hold them together for about a minute and twelve.Quote: KeeneoneI wonder if DD will call this the best prep race so far??? (j/k)
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 28th, 2015 at 11:04:38 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadMaybe not, but I have been wanting to see how Ocean Knight runs back, especially over a route of ground, and will call it a furlong better than that AOC at Santa Anita the day before with only five entered. Is a field of five really the best they can do nowadays in SoCal for filling a basic staple of racing, for the horses on the grounds that have some degree of hope for moving up rather than just along, in what amounts to a first level "non-winners other than" going a flat mile? Purse money is paid down to 5th place for crissakes, so just entering and stumbling along last to eventually fall across the wire will get a check for about two-grand. Tampa has put together an above average card (for them) on Saturday with several stakes, two graded, and a handful of allowance and straight maiden contests, besides the usual cheap claimers with arthritic eight year-old geldings competing to see who has the best magic vet to hold them together for about a minute and twelve.
Hey now....Cyrus Alexander could have been in that Santa Anita AOC race, if he had broken his maiden. When compared with other Cali (west coast) runners the field looks sub-par.
----------
The more I look at the entrants, the more I am liking that Sam F Davis race. Shippers/pedigrees/sprinters/turfers....it really has a bit of everything. I was thinking this would be a slow week, but I am wrong.
----------
Take Charge Brandi (Filly) showed up on the Wynn futures this week (225/1). She is not the only filly I have seen in futures, but is an interesting late addition. She will run on Saturday @ Oaklawn in the Martha Washington Stakes (race #8 - 1 mile).
January 29th, 2015 at 9:09:07 AM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadBarbados is out:
Quote: Marty McGee @Daily Racing FormMultiple stakes winner Barbados to undergo minor knee surgery
“Hopefully we’ll have him back in light training by the first of May or so and be able to have a nice second half of the year with him,” said Tomlinson...
http://www.drf.com/news/multiple-stakes-winner-barbados-undergo-minor-knee-surgery
We shall now observe a moment of silence for someone's future book ticket.
< ... >
Thank-you; carry on.
That would be me. Dammit.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
January 29th, 2015 at 10:15:11 AM
permalink
Tickets on fillies are a real tough sell to me in Derby futures now. Consider what the new points system used by Churchill exclusively from designated races does, compared to simply using graded stakes earnings as they always did before. I think one effect is that it makes it less than half as likely that a very good filly will take a shot at the Derby instead of going in the Oaks.Quote: KeeneoneTake Charge Brandi (Filly) showed up on the Wynn futures this week (225/1). She is not the only filly I have seen in futures, but is an interesting late addition. She will run on Saturday @ Oaklawn in the Martha Washington Stakes (race #8 - 1 mile).
Of course another effect of their points scheme is that it keeps a few delusional human connections of a colt that had his success in sprints from entering their hopelessly overmatched horse just because they can, to get an owner's box on Derby day. I regret this. I liked having a couple of Trinnibergs going out for a suicide mission in about 1:09 flat. The pace shape of last year's race probably would've looked a lot different, and I likely wouldn't ever have had to listen to a single word of the douchebag drivel coming from Steve Coburn's talking hat.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 29th, 2015 at 10:54:10 AM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadTickets on fillies are a real tough sell to me in Derby futures now. Consider what the new points system used by Churchill exclusively from designated races does, compared to simply using graded stakes earnings as they always did before. I think one effect is that it makes it less than half as likely that a very good filly will take a shot at the Derby instead of going in the Oaks. -snip-
The new system basically requires a filly to run against the boys at some point before the Derby. I guess most would say the new model is more difficult, but I will provide one hypothetical:
Take Charge Brandi wins this weekend. She then gets entered into the Rebel @ Oaklawn in March. If she runs 1st (50 derby points) or 2nd (20 derby points) in the prep she would have a good shot to make the Derby. Last year the minimum Derby points of entered runners was 20. She would not even have to run in one of the "bigger" preps in April. She could just run in whatever April filly prep race and then have the option to Run for the Roses. All of this is a longshot. But D. Wayne is the old school type to give her a go, if he believes she has the talent.
January 29th, 2015 at 11:09:09 AM
permalink
Yes, that is one path; deciding earlier to send a good filly into a Derby prep race with colts, with the risk to her form and fitness and chances in the Oaks that may entail. The other path is if the Derby is undersubscribed. The path that is eliminated is deciding to go based on how your filly did in her last, the longest, most recent, highest level Grade 1 race, and how she's come out of it and been training after it in the several weeks immediately leading up to Derby/Oaks weekend.
ADDENDUM: And yeah, Lukas would be the most likely candidate to do that. Would Larry Jones?
ADDENDUM: And yeah, Lukas would be the most likely candidate to do that. Would Larry Jones?
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 29th, 2015 at 9:44:52 PM
permalink
Grade 2 San Vicente @ Santa Anita on Sunday 2/1:
Race #6 (200k 7furlongs)
1 - Lord Nelson (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 60/1, Westgate 100/1) (1st Derby pool horse)
2 - Serbian Syclone (W Hill 75/1)
3 - Jazzy Josh (Wynn 275/1)
4 - Texas Red (Wynn 12/1, W Hill 18/1, Westgate 12/1) (1st Derby pool horse)
5 - Punctuate (Wynn 25/1, W Hill 50/1, Westgate 35/1) (1st Derby pool horse)
7 - Bench Warrant (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 150/1)
8 - Sir Samson (Wynn 275/1, W Hill 175/1)
3 - 1st Derby pool horses entered. The return of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red, in a sprint. Interesting spot for him to show up and he will be giving 5 lbs to the field. He may be a bet against as the logical heavy favorite. He does not need to win this one (no Derby points available), and it probably is a tune-up for a bigger race in March (maybe the San Felipe?). If not Texas Red, who could win this one? I need more time to handicap this one, but I have been awaiting Lord Nelson's comeback race after a troubled start in the Ky Jockey Club.
Like I said, this is going to be a quiet weekend for the horses....
Race #6 (200k 7furlongs)
1 - Lord Nelson (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 60/1, Westgate 100/1) (1st Derby pool horse)
2 - Serbian Syclone (W Hill 75/1)
3 - Jazzy Josh (Wynn 275/1)
4 - Texas Red (Wynn 12/1, W Hill 18/1, Westgate 12/1) (1st Derby pool horse)
5 - Punctuate (Wynn 25/1, W Hill 50/1, Westgate 35/1) (1st Derby pool horse)
7 - Bench Warrant (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 150/1)
8 - Sir Samson (Wynn 275/1, W Hill 175/1)
3 - 1st Derby pool horses entered. The return of Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red, in a sprint. Interesting spot for him to show up and he will be giving 5 lbs to the field. He may be a bet against as the logical heavy favorite. He does not need to win this one (no Derby points available), and it probably is a tune-up for a bigger race in March (maybe the San Felipe?). If not Texas Red, who could win this one? I need more time to handicap this one, but I have been awaiting Lord Nelson's comeback race after a troubled start in the Ky Jockey Club.
Like I said, this is going to be a quiet weekend for the horses....
January 29th, 2015 at 11:22:12 PM
permalink
Digging into the Sam F Davis (TAM-11th) for Saturday, and drilling down into Ocean Knight's last and only race, I think the 93 Beyer figure for him in that (Dec. 13th, AQU-2nd) is flaky.
The raw times at AQU were slow all day, but there was a first level allowance open to older horses later in the card at the same distance with a fair to average sort of field for the level at Aqueduct which was run in almost identical time both early and late. Is a middling quality N1X allowance on the inner winter track at AQU equivalent to running a 93 figure at Florida tracks? No, not really.
The horses in the field of that maiden race are a bunch of stiffs who haven't done much of anything before or since, but I'm not knocking the performance of McLaughlin's colt that day; his competition isn't his fault, he drew off under wraps as easily as he pleased, and qualifies as a "could be any kind" sort of colt to me. And McLaughlin is not a particularly prolific 1st start trainer; he does better 2nd time out. I'm just saying I wouldn't want to back him based specifically on that inflated speed figure in his easy and visually impressive maiden sprint win.
I'm knocking about four or five points off it, which does make the race look competitive just from a speed figure standpoint without accounting for distance or potential for growth & improvement.
The raw times at AQU were slow all day, but there was a first level allowance open to older horses later in the card at the same distance with a fair to average sort of field for the level at Aqueduct which was run in almost identical time both early and late. Is a middling quality N1X allowance on the inner winter track at AQU equivalent to running a 93 figure at Florida tracks? No, not really.
The horses in the field of that maiden race are a bunch of stiffs who haven't done much of anything before or since, but I'm not knocking the performance of McLaughlin's colt that day; his competition isn't his fault, he drew off under wraps as easily as he pleased, and qualifies as a "could be any kind" sort of colt to me. And McLaughlin is not a particularly prolific 1st start trainer; he does better 2nd time out. I'm just saying I wouldn't want to back him based specifically on that inflated speed figure in his easy and visually impressive maiden sprint win.
I'm knocking about four or five points off it, which does make the race look competitive just from a speed figure standpoint without accounting for distance or potential for growth & improvement.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 29th, 2015 at 11:42:51 PM
permalink
I saw where they were putting Texas Red in this race the other day. Just looking at his works I'm not sure he's running at top form right now. You may be right to bet against him here. Bejarano will be on Lord Nelson instead of Martin Garcia, who will be on Punctuate. It will be Serbian Syclone's longest race to date, and in his 1st race 6 1/2 fur he weakened at the end. So, I'd worry that he's going to have trouble finishing the race. I would have Lord Nelson as my favorite right now as well.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:15:44 AM
permalink
DDead, thanks for the closer look at Ocean Knight . If he wins this one I would be very impressed. The 11 post really does him no favors in this race but he has been listed as the morning line favorite (5/2). I will pass on him this time, but I still struggle to find a winner. Royal Son is starting to feel like a "wise guy" or "under the radar" Pletcher Derby prospect. If you get a chance DD (no obligation obviously) can you work up a AWD for him. His pedigree looks solid to me, but I have a lot to learn. I will "tip my hat" to anyone able to find the winner of the Sam F Davis this year.
----------
JyBrd0403 - Lord Nelson, or "the other Baffert entrant that does not get Garcia riding", is an interesting play.
----------
@ Tomspur
Mubtaahij was added recently to the Wynn derby future (125/1).
----------
JyBrd0403 - Lord Nelson, or "the other Baffert entrant that does not get Garcia riding", is an interesting play.
----------
@ Tomspur
Mubtaahij was added recently to the Wynn derby future (125/1).
January 30th, 2015 at 1:21:28 AM
permalink
My AWDs for the Sam F Davis field:
1. Catalina Red 6.5f
2. Royal Son 7.7f
3. Ami's Flatter 7.1f
4. Crittenden 7.2f
5. Divining Rod 7.2f
6. Bandages 7.6f
7. Brother Bobo 6.8f
8. G Five 6.7f
9. My Johnny Be Good 7.1f
10. Coomer 7.8f
11. Ocean Knight 7.0f
12. Bears Personality 7.4f
Royal Son has a grind all day kind of pedigree, so setting or pushing the pace as he's done in all three of his races so far is not really what you'd expect to see. On the other hand, the pace for each of those races was rated slow to average in the Moss Pace Figures. For this race (not as a Derby prospect) I find Ami's Flatter a bit interesting, but I don't expect this to be a significant money race for me.
Someone really named their colt "Bandages?" If they breed him, will his progeny be named "Lame" "Colic" "Quarter Crack" "Bucked Shins" "Mange" etc?
1. Catalina Red 6.5f
2. Royal Son 7.7f
3. Ami's Flatter 7.1f
4. Crittenden 7.2f
5. Divining Rod 7.2f
6. Bandages 7.6f
7. Brother Bobo 6.8f
8. G Five 6.7f
9. My Johnny Be Good 7.1f
10. Coomer 7.8f
11. Ocean Knight 7.0f
12. Bears Personality 7.4f
Royal Son has a grind all day kind of pedigree, so setting or pushing the pace as he's done in all three of his races so far is not really what you'd expect to see. On the other hand, the pace for each of those races was rated slow to average in the Moss Pace Figures. For this race (not as a Derby prospect) I find Ami's Flatter a bit interesting, but I don't expect this to be a significant money race for me.
Someone really named their colt "Bandages?" If they breed him, will his progeny be named "Lame" "Colic" "Quarter Crack" "Bucked Shins" "Mange" etc?
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 30th, 2015 at 3:31:26 PM
permalink
Leave the Light On is out:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/89889/leave-the-light-on-off-derby-trail
And so is Mawthooq: Tendon injury sidelines Mawthooq
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/89889/leave-the-light-on-off-derby-trail
Quote: Blood-HorseDr. (Larry) Bramlage will perform the surgery and we expect him to be out a couple of months before getting back under tack. It hurts to have all those Derby points in the bank and let them go to waste."
And so is Mawthooq: Tendon injury sidelines Mawthooq
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 31st, 2015 at 7:58:27 AM
permalink
By the way (and not related to the earlier discussion of Derby possibilities) I think she'll be massively overbet today, and if the pace unfolds as I think it will (hot), while vacuuming up all the money on the tote board I think she's a vulnerable favorite. Even more so if it happens to be an "off" track. She's obviously the most accomplished by far, but I'm looking to bet against her in this spot, or to get leverage on another to finish 2nd or better with major additional upside if Brandi doesn't light the board in either of the 1st two spots.Quote: KeeneoneTake Charge Brandi wins this weekend. She then gets entered into
You have permission to call me crazy in about 5 & 1/2 hours after she runs off and finishes under wraps while clear of the field by 8 lengths at the wire.
ADDENDUM, added Sat. night: So I wasn't crazy, just wrong. By about a head. Which is exactly as rewarding as being wrong by thirty-five lengths. That was not the pace I ordered at all. They need to listen to me better when I script these things.
It seems D. Wayne has been having a peculiar epidemic of Equine Squirrel Chasing Fever going around among horses in his barn. And that the squirrel they are feverishly chasing always appears in deep stretch somewhere near the grandstand side. Go figure; it is getting downright weird.
Leaving aside gender, Take Charge Brandi does have a pedigree for getting every bit of a mile and a quarter (AWD 8.0f). I hope Lukas does get her to the Derby, rather than the Oaks. I'd appreciate seeing her legit pace presence there; it isn't sprinter speed that just snivels & whines & spits out the bit on the second turn.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
January 31st, 2015 at 8:23:59 PM
permalink
1/30 - Santa Anita race #3 (AOC 80k - 1mile)
1 - Prospect Park (Wynn 100/1, W. Hill 150/1) won and was full of run down the stretch after being trapped behind horses.
----------
Lots of other racing today to discuss....
1 - Prospect Park (Wynn 100/1, W. Hill 150/1) won and was full of run down the stretch after being trapped behind horses.
----------
Lots of other racing today to discuss....
January 31st, 2015 at 10:40:44 PM
permalink
Sam F Davis Stakes (Grade 3):
Ocean Knight got a 93 Beyer for that. Exactly the same figure some imbecile just called "flaky" at Aqueduct. Who dat?
Ocean Knight got a 93 Beyer for that. Exactly the same figure some imbecile just called "flaky" at Aqueduct. Who dat?
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:12:38 AM
permalink
Another race today:
Aqueduct race #5 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#5 - Titanor (Wynn 275/1)
#7 - Dontbetwithbruno (Wynn 150/1)
Aqueduct race #5 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#5 - Titanor (Wynn 275/1)
#7 - Dontbetwithbruno (Wynn 150/1)
February 1st, 2015 at 12:33:36 PM
permalink
I didn't see the race. I understand it earned a speed figure of 92... plus whatever you may think should be added in overcoming the troubled trip. I really like seeing Tapit on top for 10 furlong potential, but Bertrando on the bottom line of the pedigree doesn't particularly help for that as more of a sprint to middle distance influence. The AWD I get for his pedigree is 7.1f.Quote: Keeneone1/30 - Santa Anita race #3 (AOC 80k - 1mile)
1 - Prospect Park (Wynn 100/1, W. Hill 150/1) won and was full of run down the stretch after being trapped behind horses.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 1st, 2015 at 3:13:07 PM
permalink
Injury knocks Calculator off Kentucky Derby trail
Quote:...will sideline him six months and takes him off the Triple Crown trail, trainer Peter Miller said Sunday.
Miller declined to reveal the injury.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 1st, 2015 at 9:54:51 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadSam F Davis Stakes (Grade 3):
-snip-
Ocean Knight got a 93 Beyer for that. Exactly the same figure some imbecile just called "flaky" at Aqueduct. Who dat?
I was impressed with Ocean Knight. Great race for him to overcome the post, a stubborn foe down the lane, and in only his second start.
Surprisingly the Sam F Davis (and the Holy Bull) lacked serious pace on the front end. This was in spite of some really fast horses entered capable of running 46-47 second half miles splits. Is anyone willing/able to steal a stakes race on the front end?
----------
Take Charge Brandi won in a high level workout in my opinion. She really looks and runs like a special horse. After the race, DW Lukas (her trainer) stated she will continue running in Arkansas and will be pointed for the Kentucky Oaks. Maybe he is speaking conservatively....
----------
Grade 2 San Vicente @ Santa Anita on Sunday 2/1:
1 - Lord Nelson (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 60/1, Westgate 100/1) (1st Derby pool horse) won the race in a tight finish with Texas Red. I would call it a very good race (in a nice final time 1:22.15) for both runners. Bring on the 2 turn races for both....
----------
The loss of Calculator as a high Derby points earner (#5 on the list) is unfortunate.
February 2nd, 2015 at 12:55:19 PM
permalink
I've been generally impressed with how Kiaran McLaughlin runners have been performing. He has a lot of prospects this year and seems to be on a mission to get there.Quote: KeeneoneI was impressed with Ocean Knight.
A few of this weekend's races were a little later than others getting Beyers publicly reported: Lord Nelson got a 91 speed figure in the San Vicente, and Take Charge Brandi got a 77 in the Martha Washington.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 2nd, 2015 at 3:01:23 PM
permalink
Pool #2 of Churchill Downs' pari-mutual Kentucky Derby future wager will be open this Friday, February 6th to Sunday, February 8th.
In November Nevada books did not have a contract to carry it and Pool #1 was not available in Las Vegas books. This weekend I didn't think to ask any of the racebook management folks if they now had contracts in place with Churchill and would have Pool #2 wagering available, as most of them have for all the CD pools in other years. Does anyone else know? If someone is asking around, the most likely individual to have the most current information is John Avello, who runs the book at the Wynn, as he's involved in negotiating the contracts with Churchill for the Nevada Pari-Mutual Association which represents the racebooks. I've seen no publicly reported news on the matter, and my web search on the question takes me back to this thread!
It will be odd and distinctly annoying if I have to leave a Las Vegas casino this weekend on a little road trip from Nevada to California to get a bet down. I'm not all that fond of sightseeing trips through beautiful Barstow and fabulous Victorville, and if one goes to the trouble to do that, once you go there, there you are, and afterward they have this weird dysfunctional custom called "closing time" at commercial establishments all around LA & environs.
In November Nevada books did not have a contract to carry it and Pool #1 was not available in Las Vegas books. This weekend I didn't think to ask any of the racebook management folks if they now had contracts in place with Churchill and would have Pool #2 wagering available, as most of them have for all the CD pools in other years. Does anyone else know? If someone is asking around, the most likely individual to have the most current information is John Avello, who runs the book at the Wynn, as he's involved in negotiating the contracts with Churchill for the Nevada Pari-Mutual Association which represents the racebooks. I've seen no publicly reported news on the matter, and my web search on the question takes me back to this thread!
It will be odd and distinctly annoying if I have to leave a Las Vegas casino this weekend on a little road trip from Nevada to California to get a bet down. I'm not all that fond of sightseeing trips through beautiful Barstow and fabulous Victorville, and if one goes to the trouble to do that, once you go there, there you are, and afterward they have this weird dysfunctional custom called "closing time" at commercial establishments all around LA & environs.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:43:04 PM
permalink
To catch up on a few races/runners mentioned earlier in this thread:
1/31 Turfway Park race #6 (Stakes 75k - 6.5 furlongs):
#6 The Great War won in style over a soft field of "competitors". He won like a 1/9 favorite should: easily. I saw a 93 Beyer listed, but the final time seemed a bit slow @ 1:18.69 to me. I guess next he will go in the Spiral Stakes @ Turfway.
----------
1/31 Oaklawn Park race #7 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#9 Leitrim ran second to Conquest Curlinate.
----------
1/31 Tampa Bay Downs race #2 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#8 Quiet Ray was scratched and did not run.
----------
2/1 Aqueduct race #5 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#7 - Dontbetwithbruno won by a nostril over Money Multiplier after losing the lead. Nice comeback win, and yes, another Pletcher 3 year old.
1/31 Turfway Park race #6 (Stakes 75k - 6.5 furlongs):
#6 The Great War won in style over a soft field of "competitors". He won like a 1/9 favorite should: easily. I saw a 93 Beyer listed, but the final time seemed a bit slow @ 1:18.69 to me. I guess next he will go in the Spiral Stakes @ Turfway.
----------
1/31 Oaklawn Park race #7 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#9 Leitrim ran second to Conquest Curlinate.
----------
1/31 Tampa Bay Downs race #2 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#8 Quiet Ray was scratched and did not run.
----------
2/1 Aqueduct race #5 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
#7 - Dontbetwithbruno won by a nostril over Money Multiplier after losing the lead. Nice comeback win, and yes, another Pletcher 3 year old.
February 3rd, 2015 at 11:31:25 AM
permalink
Kentucky Derby Future Pool #2 is out. Link to the live odds:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/pool-2-final-odds
Pool #2 lineup w/morning line listed.
1. American Pharoah 10-1
2. Carpe Diem 15-1
3. Competitive Edge 30-1
4. Daredevil 30-1
5. Dortmund 12-1
6. El Kabeir 20-1
7. Far Right 50-1
8. Firing Line 30-1
9. Frosted 30-1
10. Gorgeous Bird 50-1
11. Imperia 30-1
12. International Star 50-1
13. Itsaknockout 50-1
14. J S Bach 30-1
15. Khozan 20-1
16. Lord Nelson 30-1
17. Mr. Z 50-1
18. Ocean Knight 50-1
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho 30-1
20. Prospect Park 50-1
21. Texas Red 15-1
22. The Great War 30-1
23. Upstart 12-1
24. Mutuel field (all others) even money
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/pool-2-final-odds
Pool #2 lineup w/morning line listed.
1. American Pharoah 10-1
2. Carpe Diem 15-1
3. Competitive Edge 30-1
4. Daredevil 30-1
5. Dortmund 12-1
6. El Kabeir 20-1
7. Far Right 50-1
8. Firing Line 30-1
9. Frosted 30-1
10. Gorgeous Bird 50-1
11. Imperia 30-1
12. International Star 50-1
13. Itsaknockout 50-1
14. J S Bach 30-1
15. Khozan 20-1
16. Lord Nelson 30-1
17. Mr. Z 50-1
18. Ocean Knight 50-1
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho 30-1
20. Prospect Park 50-1
21. Texas Red 15-1
22. The Great War 30-1
23. Upstart 12-1
24. Mutuel field (all others) even money
February 3rd, 2015 at 3:30:36 PM
permalink
An early free of charge version of Brisnet's past performances for Pool #2 wagering interests (in .pdf form) can be found HERE. [EDIT: Nevermind; it is a 'no-charge' version but does require an account log-in, so will only work for those who have a Brisnet account.] The current link via Churchill's Kentucky Derby site takes you to the PPs for early nominees for last year's Derby; I imagine they'll get around to updating that pretty soon, and that the Daily Racing Form and Equibase versions of the PPs will soon be posted, available for a fee to online data account holders.
I am updating my data and plan to post AWDs for Pool #2 here shortly for those (both of you) who may be interested, probably this evening. But a word about that: I expect some of the numbers will not be identical to those I've posted on the pedigrees of some of the same colts earlier in this thread. I have just added a chunk of more recent information to the database I use for this, in order to update the data on the progeny of all sires (not just for Derby prospects or 3 year-old colts in particular). In most cases this will not move the numbers at all, for a minority of them it will move the numbers to a small degree that should probably not make a material difference to anyone, and in a few cases (usually involving very young sires for which the more recent races comprise a larger share of the total information) the numbers could move to a degree that matters.
I routinely do this annually about this time. In every case where there is any difference the most recent numbers will incorporate a larger sample size, including all of the previous data as well as the recent additions, which I'd therefore always consider superior to the previous numbers. Besides a larger sample size, there are additional reasons rooted in how the thoroughbred racehorse breeding industry works and choices are made about which mares are used that commonly cause changes in the results over the first several seasons of some sires as they become established.
I am updating my data and plan to post AWDs for Pool #2 here shortly for those (both of you) who may be interested, probably this evening. But a word about that: I expect some of the numbers will not be identical to those I've posted on the pedigrees of some of the same colts earlier in this thread. I have just added a chunk of more recent information to the database I use for this, in order to update the data on the progeny of all sires (not just for Derby prospects or 3 year-old colts in particular). In most cases this will not move the numbers at all, for a minority of them it will move the numbers to a small degree that should probably not make a material difference to anyone, and in a few cases (usually involving very young sires for which the more recent races comprise a larger share of the total information) the numbers could move to a degree that matters.
I routinely do this annually about this time. In every case where there is any difference the most recent numbers will incorporate a larger sample size, including all of the previous data as well as the recent additions, which I'd therefore always consider superior to the previous numbers. Besides a larger sample size, there are additional reasons rooted in how the thoroughbred racehorse breeding industry works and choices are made about which mares are used that commonly cause changes in the results over the first several seasons of some sires as they become established.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 3rd, 2015 at 4:07:37 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadAn early free of charge version of Brisnet's past performances for Pool #2 wagering interests (in .pdf form) can be found HERE. [EDIT: Nevermind; it is a 'no-charge' version but does require an account log-in, so will only work for those who have a Brisnet account.] The current link via Churchill's Kentucky Derby site takes you to the PPs for early nominees for last year's Derby; I imagine they'll get around to updating that pretty soon, and that the Daily Racing Form and Equibase versions of the PPs will soon be posted, available for a fee to online data account holders.
I am updating my data and plan to post AWDs for Pool #2 here shortly for those (both of you) who may be interested, probably this evening. But a word about that: I expect some of the numbers will not be identical to those I've posted on the pedigrees of some of the same colts earlier in this thread. I have just added a chunk of more recent information to the database I use for this, in order to update the data on the progeny of all sires (not just for Derby prospects or 3 year-old colts in particular). In most cases this will not move the numbers at all, for a minority of them it will move the numbers to a small degree that should probably not make a material difference to anyone, and in a few cases (usually involving very young sires for which the more recent races comprise a larger share of the total information) the numbers could move to a degree that matters.
I routinely do this annually about this time. In every case where there is any difference the most recent numbers will incorporate a larger sample size, including all of the previous data as well as the recent additions, which I'd therefore always consider superior to the previous numbers. Besides a larger sample size, there are additional reasons rooted in how the thoroughbred racehorse breeding industry works and choices are made about which mares are used that commonly cause changes in the results over the first several seasons of some sires as they become established.
I have no clue about much of the vocabulary and statistics you provide, but I sure appreciate you acting as a resource for those who do. I think it adds a lot to the board.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
February 3rd, 2015 at 4:42:31 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadMy AWDs for the Sam F Davis field:
1. Catalina Red 6.5f
2. Royal Son 7.7f
3. Ami's Flatter 7.1f
4. Crittenden 7.2f
5. Divining Rod 7.2f
6. Bandages 7.6f
7. Brother Bobo 6.8f
8. G Five 6.7f
9. My Johnny Be Good 7.1f
10. Coomer 7.8f
11. Ocean Knight 7.0f
12. Bears Personality 7.4f
Royal Son has a grind all day kind of pedigree, so setting or pushing the pace as he's done in all three of his races so far is not really what you'd expect to see. On the other hand, the pace for each of those races was rated slow to average in the Moss Pace Figures. For this race (not as a Derby prospect) I find Ami's Flatter a bit interesting, but I don't expect this to be a significant money race for me.
Someone really named their colt "Bandages?" If they breed him, will his progeny be named "Lame" "Colic" "Quarter Crack" "Bucked Shins" "Mange" etc?
We had a trainer and some owners who decided to name horses donkey, goat, chicken ect. as they thought it would add something to the race calls. Goat was actually the fastest of the whole lot of farm animals. ....oh yeah there was an old Mcdonald too :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
February 3rd, 2015 at 4:52:23 PM
permalink
The average winning distance (2/3/15 updated version) in furlongs for the pedigrees in the Churchill Downs KDFW Pool #2:
7.0 American Pharoah
7.9 Carpe Diem
6.9 Competitive Edge
7.1 Daredevil
7.0 Dortmund
7.2 El Kabeir
6.5 Far Right
6.9 Firing Line
7.5 Frosted
7.0 Gorgeous Bird
7.3 Imperia
7.4 International Star
7.5 Itsaknockout
7.0 J S Bach
7.5 Khozan
7.5 Lord Nelson
7.0 Mr. Z
7.1 Ocean Knight
7.3 Ocho Ocho Ocho
7.2 Prospect Park
8.0 Texas Red
7.3 The Great War
6.9 Upstart
But feel free to ask. First two questions are free; purchase of third comes with a 'fun-book' full of valuable coupons.
7.0 American Pharoah
7.9 Carpe Diem
6.9 Competitive Edge
7.1 Daredevil
7.0 Dortmund
7.2 El Kabeir
6.5 Far Right
6.9 Firing Line
7.5 Frosted
7.0 Gorgeous Bird
7.3 Imperia
7.4 International Star
7.5 Itsaknockout
7.0 J S Bach
7.5 Khozan
7.5 Lord Nelson
7.0 Mr. Z
7.1 Ocean Knight
7.3 Ocho Ocho Ocho
7.2 Prospect Park
8.0 Texas Red
7.3 The Great War
6.9 Upstart
As I'm sure you discovered in your career, adding a decent sized helping of jargon with a foggy frosting of numbers is almost as effective as carrying a clipboard while walking around in shiny shoes & a dark suit for giving the impression that you know what you're doing, and whatever the hell it is must be important. And I'll have my executive assistant send my invoice shortly.Quote: beachbumbabs...clue about much...
But feel free to ask. First two questions are free; purchase of third comes with a 'fun-book' full of valuable coupons.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 3rd, 2015 at 8:20:24 PM
permalink
Two races to mention:
2/4 Gulfstream Park Race #2 (AOC 75k - 1 1/8mile):
#1 Quimet
#2 Quality Bird (Wynn 225/1, W Hill 175/1)
#3 Night Out
#4 Madefromlucky (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 100/1)
#5 Marine One
Interesting race from a distance perspective. Small field and not many 3 year olds have run this far.
----------
2/6 Oaklawn Park Race #8 (AOC 62.5k - 1 1/16mile):
#1 Distant Kingdom (Wynn 250/1, W Hill 150/1)
#3 Pioneerof The West (Wynn 225/1, W Hill 200/1)
#6 Vici (Wynn 100/1)
Pioneerof The West ran a distant 3rd in the Sham, has been running in good company, and may deserve another look in his 3rd dirt start.
2/4 Gulfstream Park Race #2 (AOC 75k - 1 1/8mile):
#1 Quimet
#2 Quality Bird (Wynn 225/1, W Hill 175/1)
#3 Night Out
#4 Madefromlucky (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 100/1)
#5 Marine One
Interesting race from a distance perspective. Small field and not many 3 year olds have run this far.
----------
2/6 Oaklawn Park Race #8 (AOC 62.5k - 1 1/16mile):
#1 Distant Kingdom (Wynn 250/1, W Hill 150/1)
#3 Pioneerof The West (Wynn 225/1, W Hill 200/1)
#6 Vici (Wynn 100/1)
Pioneerof The West ran a distant 3rd in the Sham, has been running in good company, and may deserve another look in his 3rd dirt start.
February 3rd, 2015 at 8:58:40 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadThe average winning distance (2/3/15 updated version) in furlongs for the pedigrees in the Churchill Downs KDFW Pool #2:
-edited-
6.5 Far Right
6.9 Firing Line
7.0 Gorgeous Bird
7.4 International Star
7.5 Itsaknockout
7.0 J S Bach
7.5 Khozan
7.1 Ocean Knight
7.2 Prospect Park
Of the 9 new additions, Ocean Knight will likely get the most play. I do not see his odds closing near 50/1. Khozan is also interesting but really unproven (around 2 turns). The 2 events on Saturday (Withers/Lewis) could draw a few of these as entrants and really change the odds after the races. I thought Bolo may be added but did read he may be kept on the turf for now.
February 3rd, 2015 at 9:14:26 PM
permalink
That has the look to me of a race that a few significant trainers may have "requested" to get carded by the racing secretary. Reminds me of another one about this time last year, but with some stiffs recruited to fill out the field:Quote: Keeneone2/4 Gulfstream Park Race #2 (AOC 75k - 1 1/8mile):
#1 Quimet
#2 Quality Bird (Wynn 225/1, W Hill 175/1)
#3 Night Out
#4 Madefromlucky (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 100/1)
#5 Marine One
Interesting race from a distance perspective. Small field and not many 3 year olds have run this far.
February 22nd, 2014, Gulfstream Park, Race #6
Quote:CONSTITUTION set the pace off the rail, responded when TONALIST made a run at him on the far turn, then drew clear under pressure. TONALIST stalked the pace three wide, made a run at the winner on the far turn but couldn't stay with that rival while proving second best. MEXIKOMA unhurried early, angled out for the stretch run and improved his position to gain the show. WICKED STRONG outrun early, raced three wide around the far turn and passed tired rivals...
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
February 3rd, 2015 at 9:33:51 PM
permalink
Quote: DrawingDeadThat has the look to me of a race that a few significant trainers may have "requested" to get carded by the racing secretary. Reminds me of another one about this time last year, but with some stiffs recruited to fill out the field:
February 22nd, 2014, Gulfstream Park, Race #6
Tonalist, Wicked Strong, and Constitution all figure to be active "older horses" this year. Wow, what a great field in that race last year. So of the five entered tomorrow, who is Tonalist/Wicked Strong/Constitution?
