First Saturday in May

Madefromlucky is not going to enter the Derby. No injury, he just did not have a good workout @ CD today.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91517/madefromlucky-officially-out-of-ky-derby

Keen Ice is now in 20th place and his connections intend to run him. K. Desormeaux gets the mount.

Quote: DrawingDead

The consensus in the betting market seems to be settling firmly on American Pharoah. I'm seeing 5/2 down to 2/1 on A.P.

What happened to Itsaknockout? I wasn't surprised he didn't get the money in his last; I preferred Materiality and bet that way. But I thought 'Itsa..' was very legit going into the Florida Derby, and didn't expect him to disappear in the race.

AP does look to be the favorite, at least until post positions are drawn. He is one that will have none of my money, but I would not be surprised if he breaks my heart on Derby Day. Losing to the favorite is fine IMO, but losing to a long shot is unforgivable....

Itsaknockout has seriously been forgotten about in recent press releases. He did have good work today @ CD, but no rider has been named.

I'm okay with losing any wager I may make in this, and expect to more often than not, whether to a $7 Chrome or what I regard as an equally ridiculous $35.60 Lil E. Tee, because I regard it as among the least predictable set of circumstances in American racing. I require greater estimated compensation due to the higher degree of uncertainty of relevant information and randomness in the running of it in a 20 horse field doing something they've never attempted. I'd be seriously annoyed with myself if I had overlooked an Animal Kingdom, but not for losing to either a Chrome/Pharoah or a Far Right/Lil E. Tee in cases when that occasionally will be the outcome. Would I bet against them if they loaded in the gate again under the same circumstances, even knowing the outcome the first time? Yes. And if A.P. wins by open lengths I'll be eagerly stepping up to bet "no" on the Triple Crown with both fists. And if he turns out to be the second coming of Secretariat, I won't be happy with the specific wagering result, but won't evaluate my decision making on that basis.

Quote: DrawingDead

They do. I can easily understand why you'd prefer that. With rare exceptions, that is the only way I wager in Las Vegas books. I don't use clerks for pari-mutual race wagering. For a variety of reasons mostly having to do with speed of wagering & the exponential increase of the rate of movement of money among betting pools at post time, it would cost me money if I had to do it the old fashioned way. I think many of those still doing it 'old-school' with clerks punching out paper tickets at a mutual window are there because they're craving their social interaction with the clerks.

Most of the automated terminals in Las Vegas racebooks are IPT's (individual player terminals) which in case you aren't familiar with them are advance deposit account wagering touch-screens, allowing individuals to wager at their reserved private individual seat. They are available in limited numbers reserved for those who wager enough. They are somewhat expensive for the book, requiring a decent volume to amortize the cost, so not available for the $10 bettor. Not every book has them, but the more serious ones do. I don't go to books that can't provide me with one. There are also some stand alone kiosks and countertop terminals, similar to what you commonly find on-track, that can be used by feeding them either cash or a cash voucher.

The only major gaming company that doesn't have them at least at some of their larger or higher end properties is Caesars Entertainment. The MGM/Mirage Resorts properties, the Wynn, Boyd/Coast casinos, Westgate/LVH, Station Casinos, SouthPoint, and many others have them - one or the other or both, most commonly in the form of some reserved seating banks of IPTs. The IPTs do require an account, which takes only a couple of minutes and the completion of a simple one page document with basic identification to open.

I imagine many people aren't aware they exist, and may not even know what they are if they are standing near one. And this is partly why and how some apparently popular and very vocal but not very bright blowhards on this site who are regularly pontificating all manner of ludicrous nonsense from their fantasies of what and who they think is going on in the racebook (not in this thread) can continue to have absolutely no clue whatsoever who is actually doing what, even as what they don't know and who they don't see accounts for most of the wagering handle while they do it. It is invisible to them.

All they see are the $5 fleas (as they are affectionately termed in local lingo) and it never dawns on the poor fool that maybe something else is also happening. You probably already know that the "something else" of course amounts to a small portion of the headcount of bettors, but a large part of the money. Like going to Santa Anita and seeing nothing but the scruffy degenerates milling around on "mainline" and in the grandstand, if you never go upstairs. (Not that I'm saying there's anything wrong at all with having plenty of scruffy drunken flea degenerates blowing their money at the windows on mainline or in a book. I love them. Mostly. I'm all for that. With my sincere regards and best wishes to any of our degen fleas here.)

Thanks for the information here, very educational. I am closer to a "degen flea" than a IPT registered user. I was hoping for the no account needed, United Tote/Amtote cash-in/ticket-out terminals. I guess I need to visit a California/Arizona track to use them in the future. Just curious, where is the closest horse track in relational to Vegas? California or Arizona?

Quote: Keeneone

Thanks for the information here, very educational. I am closer to a "degen flea" than a IPT registered user. I was hoping for the no account needed, United Tote/Amtote cash-in/ticket-out terminals. I guess I need to visit a California/Arizona track to use them in the future. Just curious, where is the closest horse track in relational to Vegas? California or Arizona?

No, if an advance deposit account is a problem or something you dislike, you don't have to do that. If you don't want an account to use the IPTs or one isn't available for you, you can use terminals or kiosks to buy a paper ticket in a number of Las Vegas area books. Some take cash, some need a ticket or cash voucher, neither requiring any sort of account.

A few examples: At Wynn, there are two such machines installed in the counter near the wall at the far right side as you look into the book from the back, at Aria there are two stand alone kiosks to the right of the counter just steps away from the last clerk's station toward the sportsbook's restrooms, and last time I was at Orleans there were still a couple of counter-top machines toward the left of the betting windows. Those three examples are ticket-in, ticket out, but no account or ID needed. There are others, but those are the ones that come to mind at the moment. Wynn's do some other interesting things like play video of any past race from any track on this continent on demand, from multiple angles if desired. But of those I think Aria's are really the best equipment that's easiest and quickest to wager, and I've never seen a line there that would delay anyone. Of course Aria at City Center is a lot less easy to drive into than Wynn. The many William Hill kiosks take cash as well as tickets/vouchers and also do not require an account or even a player card.

The machines in those examples I gave aren't quite identical to what is commonly installed on-track, but they are very similar.

I don't recall whether the Cantor books also have separate machines or kiosks like that, maybe not, but if it is simply a matter of concern that you may not wager enough for an IPT, ALL the screens in Cantor books are also account betting terminals (though I personally find their unique whiz-bang proprietary ones annoying to use) and in some of them they aren't heavily used on most days, so it shouldn't take much at all for them to accommodate someone at a place like Palms. There are also the locals' oriented books that offer phone wagering, which does require an advance deposit account but for minimal amounts and I think is pretty much expected to be flea city!

As far as nearest track, eh, I guess Santa Anita is nearer than Turf Paradise, and of course it is a lot nicer joint. Though you'll pay a lot more for parking, admission, seating, and on and on than at the mobbed-up dump in north Phoenix.

Quote: DrawingDead

No, if an advance deposit account is a problem or something you dislike, you don't have to do that. If you don't want an account to use the IPTs or one isn't available for you, you can use terminals or kiosks to buy a paper ticket in a number of Las Vegas area books. Some take cash, some need a ticket or cash voucher, neither requiring any sort of account.

A few examples: At Wynn, there are two such machines installed in the counter near the wall at the far right side as you look into the book from the back, at Aria there are two stand alone kiosks to the right of the counter, and last time I was at Orleans there were still a couple of counter-top machines toward the left of the betting windows. Those three examples are ticket-in, ticket out, but no account or ID needed. There are others, but those are the ones that come to mind at the moment. The many William Hill kiosks take cash as well as tickets/vouchers and also do not require an account or even a player card.

I don't recall whether the Cantor books also have separate machines or kiosks like that, maybe not, but if it is simply a matter of concern that you may not wager enough for an IPT, ALL the screens in Cantor books are also account betting terminals (though I personally find their unique whiz-bang proprietary ones annoying to use) and in some of them they aren't heavily used on most days, so it shouldn't take much at all for them to accommodate someone at a place like Palms. There are also the locals' oriented books that offer phone wagering, which does require an advance deposit account but for minimal amounts and I think is pretty much expected to be flea city!

As far as nearest track, eh, I guess Santa Anita is nearer than Turf Paradise, and of course it is a lot nicer joint. Though you'll pay a lot more for parking, admission, seating, and on and on than at the mobbed-up dump in north Phoenix.

Thanks yet again for the detailed reply. I will be @ Wynn this week and will check out their terminals. I have not really noticed them before, or I assumed they were race re-play monitors.
Eventually I will make it out to "The Great Race Place", Del Mar, and the others....

Quote: Keeneone

<...>

I will be @ Wynn this week and will check out their terminals. I have not really noticed them before, or I assumed they were race re-play monitors.

<...>

They are that, but have multiple functions. I was editing while you were replying, partly to insert more info about that above.

Horses I am considering to complete the trifecta/superfecta:

There looks to be a connection to the Brisnet LP #'s and Kentucky Derby finishers in the top 5 (not the winner). I am not going to defend the basis of the Brisnet LP #'s, but I have noticed a connection in recent years (Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, Dullahan). To be specific, runners that have a Brisnet LP # greater than ~89 in dirt routes @ CD have shown the ability to find their way into a top 5 finish in the Derby recently.

2015 runners that meet this betting "angle":
Dortmund
Far Right
Danzig Moon
Keen Ice
Bold Conquest (not yet in the field, currently 22nd).

This is the 1st year I have closely looked at this....

Ha! Good luck. The first thing that comes to my mind (because he screwed up some of my wagers in this twice) is that those have a 66.7% connection to the very peculiar highly *ahem* unconventional form reversals that sometimes occur out of nowhere from Dallas Stewart trainees (incl. both C. Curve & G. Soul) at boxcar prices in performances never to be repeated 'till the poor plodding beast is retired with a record of something like one amazing 2nd in a premier Grade 1 followed by 32 obscure off the board finishes. But he isn't in it with any of his mystery slugs this year, thank Dog!

Not to knock your hypothesis; they aren't mutually exclusive.

Quote: DrawingDead

Ha! Good luck. The first thing that comes to my mind (because he screwed up some of my wagers in this twice) is that those have a 66.6% connection to the very peculiar highly *ahem* unconventional form reversals that sometimes occur out of nowhere from Dallas Stewart trainees (incl. both C. Curve & G. Soul) at boxcar prices in performances never to be repeated 'till the poor plodding beast is retired with a record of something like one amazing 2nd in a premier Grade 1 followed by 32 obscure off the board finishes. But he isn't in it with any of his mystery slugs this year, thank Dog!

Not to knock your hypothesis; they aren't mutually exclusive.

It is a very weak hypothesis at best. And I appreciate your opinion. But the "angle" also excludes a number of interesting runners in the last few years and could be used to remove a few runners this year....

Quote: Keeneone

...also excludes a number of interesting runners in the last few years and could be used to remove a few runners this year....

I do find that thought interesting, and probably similar in effect to something I do through other means. I didn't have a beef with Brisnet's LP metric; I just haven't got a history with them to be able to form a solely experiential opinion without access to their proprietary methodology.

Where I might be somewhat reluctant or extra cautious with it or a similar approach is of course in a case that involved an open length win under wraps (which can sometimes EITHER deflate or inflate times & splits) and/or a prospect that clearly didn't need any qualifying points (or unrestricted graded stakes earnings if retrospectively back testing before CD's points), and also obviously when some form of severe surface bias/condition and/or traffic or trip trouble was likely to be highly relevant.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: Keeneone

...also excludes a number of interesting runners in the last few years and could be used to remove a few runners this year....

I do find that thought interesting, and probably similar in effect to something I do through other means. I didn't have a beef with Brisnet's LP metric; I just haven't got a history with them to be able to form a solely experiential opinion without access to their proprietary methodology.

Where I might be somewhat reluctant or extra cautious with it or a similar approach is of course in a case that involved an open length win under wraps (which can sometimes EITHER deflate or inflate times & splits) and/or a prospect that clearly didn't need any qualifying points (or unrestricted graded stakes earnings if retrospectively back testing before CD's points), and also obviously when some form of severe surface bias/condition and/or traffic or trip trouble was likely to be highly relevant.

I also do not have a history with these numbers. I just noticed a "trend" and wanted to mention it. The 2015 horses that could be excluded with this "angle" are:

International Star
El Kabeir
Mr. Z

This "statistic" is just one (of many) to think about for the Kentucky Derby.
----------

This Brisnet link continues to be updated for the Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/promo/uwb.pdf
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Can I do a Kentucky Derby give-away on the WOV website? Is it within the rules of the site?

Quote: Keeneone

....
Can I do a Kentucky Derby give-away on the WOV website? Is it within the rules of the site?

It's possible you can, but the details would matter. What are you thinking of offering?

Quote: beachbumbabs

It's possible you can, but the details would matter. What are you thinking of offering?

Once the field is established, I would do a blind draw of horses for the first 20 members that participated in this thread. I already have the list of members and they could always opt out. 1st,2nd,3rd place finishers after the race would win a Kentucky Derby related prize (less than $25 value). Potentially a little more for 1st place via a live betting ticket. I could also convert prizes to approximate cash value if the winners wanted vs giving shipping details (I realize some members do not like to do this). That is it basically.

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

Or maybe she will be another Rachel Alexandra and be racing on Saturday. Best wishes to her and your success.

Quote: Keeneone

Once the field is established, I would do a blind draw of horses for the first 20 members that participated in this thread. I already have the list of members and they could always opt out. 1st,2nd,3rd place finishers after the race would win a Kentucky Derby related prize (less than $25 value). Potentially a little more for 1st place via a live betting ticket. I could also convert prizes to approximate cash value if the winners wanted vs giving shipping details (I realize some members do not like to do this). That is it basically.

I am not the official word on this, but in my opinion, this is similar to Mission's various NFL pools where he's offered a small prize to the winner, and I would guess it would be allowable. If you want to move forward on it, I would suggest you PM Wizard and Zuga and ask if you can proceed.

On a personal note, I think it would be fun, and it's very generous of you to suggest it.

Quote: Boz

Or maybe she will be another Rachel Alexandra and be racing on Saturday. Best wishes to her and your success.

Unfortunately, Rachel skipped the Derby, crushed the Oaks, then won the Preakness. Would she have won the triple crown? I think so.

Hopefully I'll have a difficult decision like that to make in 2 years (riiiiiiight...)

The post position draw is Wednesday from 2:00-2:30pm PT (5:00-5:30pm ET) [EDIT: 2:30-3:00 PT & 5:30-6:00pm ET] televised live on NBCSN. For some inexplicable reason, I usually find that little needlessly strung-out pre-event event kind of fun.

Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

I don't think the thread title specified "May" of any particular year.

Have fun writing checks. They are rather large animals, with a habit of eating.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2015/2015_kentucky_derby_contenders.htm

Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

Congrats man, that's awesome. Enjoy.

Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

I can quite honestly say that being involved in horse ownership in the past was one of the most if not THE most exciting things I have ever done! Very rewarding when they run well and quite demoralizing when they don't!!! Still, congrats and you will have the time of your life, guaranteed!!!!

Enjoy the experience!

Quote: FinsRule

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

Quick check to make sure the first Friday in May, 2017 isn't the 7th, which would be a week after the Oaks...nope, that doesn't happen again until 2021.

Another quick check to make sure they do run the Oaks on April 30 if it's a Friday...yes, the 2010 Kentucky Oaks was on Friday 4/30.

She probably will run the first Friday in May 2017... In a 10k state-bred maiden claiming race at Arlington. Lol.

I'll keep everyone updated as she starts her training.

Corrected time for the post position draw, broadcast day after tomorrow (Wed.) on NBC-SN: 5:30-6pm ET, 2:30-3pm PT.

Quote: FinsRule

She probably will run the first Friday in May 2017... In a 10k state-bred maiden claiming race at Arlington. Lol.

I'll keep everyone updated as she starts her training.

That wouldn't be so bad at all, IMO. Still about four times as good as a 2.5k MCL at Portland Meadows. With some 6 year-old maidens. And the box seats are likely much better, under a roof that probably doesn't leak.

Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

Congrats, Fins! Weren't some of us on hold, with you taking the point, on buying a racehorse, the discussion maybe about 18 months back? Guessing that one fell through; wasn't named Carpe Diem or anything, was it? :)

Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

Quote: FinsRule

She probably will run the first Friday in May 2017... In a 10k state-bred maiden claiming race at Arlington. Lol.

I'll keep everyone updated as she starts her training.

She may not have a name yet (other than mother's name 2014 or you may wish to keep private about it), but we know she is an Illinois bred.
I wish you and your partners the best of luck with this filly.
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In Derby news, the weather for Friday/ Saturday is looking pretty good. Very low chance of rain predicted right now.

Complements on the courage required in the willingness to take a real gamble, one that makes a wager in some casino games look more like buying some wimpy annuity or Certificate of Deposit by comparison. As of 2006 in a University of Kentucky study:

• Pct. of North American female thoroughbred foals (any filly) ever making it to be a starter in a race: 75%;
• Of ever winning any race in her lifetime: 52%;
• Of ever winning more than once: 33%;
• Of winning any kind of stakes of any level, including small restricted unlisted stakes: 7%;
• Of becoming a graded stakes winner: 2%;
• Of winning a Grade 1 stakes: 0.7%;
• Of breaking even on all-sources earnings vs. total costs in her lifetime: < ~10%.*
  *(Profitability estimate not really known, but a likely rough projection from non-UK estimates.)

The numbers for colts were somewhat higher, though not enormously so.

But, there's the small (<<< 1%) chance of becoming the equine equivalent of hitting a royal flush, with total of earnings and lifetime breeding value that greatly exceeds the sum total of hundreds of others altogether.

Whatever else, have fun and enjoy the ride. Life is short.

any one know a good place in/near south jersey to go to bet on the derby? AFAIK I can't just go to AC to bet, I'd have to go somewhere like parx or similar... I just don't feel like driving out there. Are online horse race bets legal in NJ?

Quote: ajemeister

any one know a good place in/near south jersey to go to bet on the derby? AFAIK I can't just go to AC to bet, I'd have to go somewhere like parx or similar... I just don't feel like driving out there. Are online horse race bets legal in NJ?

Sign up at twinspires.com

Quote: beachbumbabs

Congrats, Fins! Weren't some of us on hold, with you taking the point, on buying a racehorse, the discussion maybe about 18 months back? Guessing that one fell through; wasn't named Carpe Diem or anything, was it? :)

Yeah, they never returned my calls or emails, which of course is a bad sign.

The horse doesn't have a name yet, she's by Giant Oak out of an Eavesdropper mare.

I'm aware the odds are stacked highly against me. If she wins one race in her career, I'll consider it a success and be thrilled. The winners circle photo will be plastered all throughout my house.

Quote: ajemeister

any one know a good place in/near south jersey to go to bet on the derby? AFAIK I can't just go to AC to bet, I'd have to go somewhere like parx or similar... I just don't feel like driving out there. Are online horse race bets legal in NJ?

Never been to Joyzee, so can't offer an opinion on "good" but these are available:

#1. Online @ TVG (through "4NJBets"):
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/76565/tvg-to-handle-new-jersey-online-betting-site
https://4njbets.tvg.com/

#2. NJ casino racebook:
http://www.theborgata.com/casino/games/racebook
http://www.theborgata.com/casino/games/racebook/racebook-guide

#3. Simulcast wagering @ NJ track:
http://www.monmouthpark.com/home.aspx

Quote: Tomspur

Sign up at twinspires.com

Pretty sure he can't use that one if he lives in New Jersey, unless something has recently changed.

Quote: Twinspires "FAQs"

Q: In what other states is the new TwinSpires.com available?
A: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming. You can check TwinSpires.com for updates to this list as they become available.

4njbets.com

Churchill Downs Friday entries are now available.

Callback in the Eight Belles is a single in my opinion. Her 2 works at CD have been excellent.

The Kentucky Oaks field is very solid just like the Derby field. I like Birdatthewire, but she got the tough 13 post. Anyone else have opinions on the Oaks?

Free Kentucky Oaks Brisnet PP's (PDF):
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=11&param1=3740&param2=68&param3=1485055

My opinion is my callback future wager for the oaks is worthless. She was 15th in points and couldn't be entered as an AE, because Baffert wanted to make sure she could at least run in eight belles. I'm not happy.

Where they going to hold the PREAKNESS>??

As BUZZ would say it ain't safe around there

Quote: coilman

Where they going to hold the PREAKNESS>??

They've been asking that for how many years now?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

They've been asking that for how many years now?

True. But if they torch Pimlico that could be an improvement. And the owner might want to help.

Quote: Keeneone

Anyone else have opinions on the Oaks?

Anyone for fourteen number roulette? My opinion is that will be an excellent time for me to take a break, so I still have some money at 3pm on Friday.

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, for Louisville, KY:

Quote: NOAA-NWS Louisville

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Okay then, fine 'n dandy.

But possibly just as important financially to me this weekend, opening weekend at Belmont Park (@ Elmont, NY) with some of their significant turf racing scheduled to coincide with Derby Saturday, and the tsunami of clue-deprived once a year race fan money thereon:

Quote: NOAA-NWS Elmont

Friday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Ehhh.

Quote: DrawingDead

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, for Louisville, KY: Okay then, fine 'n dandy.

But possibly just as important financially to me this weekend, opening weekend at Belmont Park (@ Elmont, NY) with some of their significant turf racing scheduled to coincide with Derby Saturday, and the tsunami of clue-deprived once a year race fan money thereon: Ehhh.

The weather does look good for the Derby.
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Elmont, NY....Where the heck is that?

I'll take a break @ Belmont this weekend and save my money for June 6th, 2015. :)

Quote: Keeneone

The weather does look good for the Derby.
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Elmont, NY....Where the heck is that?

I'll take a break @ Belmont this weekend and save my money for June 6th, 2015. :)

Hang a right at Queens.

Googleymappythingy

(For benefit of others; Keeneone is just messing with me.)

Ugh.

Post position draw is done & morning line is up:

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (E. Trujillo), 50-1
2. Carpe Diem (J. Velazquez), 8-1
3. Materiality (J. Castellano), 12-1
4. Tencendur (M. Franco), 30-1
5. Danzig Moon (J. Leparoux), 30-1
6. Mubtaahij (C. Soumillon), 20-1
7. El Kabeir (C. Borel), 30-1
8. Dortmund (M. Garcia), 3-1
9. Bolo (R. Bejarano), 30-1
10. Firing Line (G. Stevens), 12-1
11. Stanford (F. Geroux), 30-1
12. International Star (M. Mena), 20-1
13. Itsaknockout (L. Saez), 30-1
14. Keen Ice (K. Desormeaux), 50-1

<AUXILIARY GATE>

15. Frosted (J. Rosario), 15-1
16. War Story (J. Talamo), 50-1
17. Mr. Z (R. Vazquez), 50-1
18. American Pharoah (V. Espinoza), 5-2
19. Upstart (J. Ortiz), 15-1
20. Far Right (M. Smith), 30-1

AE – Frammento (C. Nakatani)
AE – Tale of Verve (B. Hernandez)

Recapping from Pool #1 in the original November thread starter post:

Quote: DrawingDead

1 12 American Pharoah 7.0
2 20 Blofeld 6.2
3 20 Calculator 6.4
4 20 Carpe Diem 7.9
5 50 Classy Class 6.1
6 20 Competitive Edge 6.3
7 20 Daredevil 7.1
8 50 Dortmund 7.0
9 50 Eagle 7.1
10 50 El Kabeir 7.1
11 50 Frosted 7.5
12 50 I Spent It 6.4
13 50 Imperia 7.3
14 30 Lord Nelson 7.5
15 50 Lucky Player 6.7
16 30 Mr. Z 7.0
17 20 Ocho Ocho Ocho 7.3
18 50 Ostrolenka 7.0
19 50 Punctuate 7.0
20 15 Texas Red 8.1
21 30 The Great War 7.4
22 50 Unblunted 6.3
23 20 Upstart 6.9
24 3/5 All Others (Field)

So pending any late scratch in the final 72hrs, 8 of the 23 are in, along with 12 from the Pool #1 "field" + the 2 on the AE list that were also not named individual wagering interests in the first early pool.

Average among Pool #1 AWDs making the race: 7.22f
Avg. Pool #1 pedigree AWD of those eliminated: 6.86f
(Using only original progeny data available at that time, with AWDs not adjusted for subsequent additional data.)

Carpe Diem is toast. Sorry DD.

So I'm going to change my selections slightly.
1 Mubtaahij
2 International star
3 Dortmund
4 Frosted

I love the draw for mubtaahij and I think international start is an overlay right now. How will dortmund act in the scrum with that big stride?

Quote: ontariodealer

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2015/2015_kentucky_derby_contenders.htm

This was a very interesting read today. Thank you for posting the link. The data/analysis seems to point to Mubtaahij at the top of their PF rating. He has the lowest Dosage # and has run the best race to date according to the number conversions. His UAE Derby rates a little higher than Ready For Rye's Swale Stakes performance (which was excellent). Materiality/Upstart/Frosted have also turned in big performances based on the numbers. It is what it is....thanks again.

Of the favorites, Carpe Diem got the worst of the draw, Dortmund got the best spot, and AP should be fine on the outside. I am still not convinced Ocho³ is going to run and his post does not help. Stanford will run with F. Geroux to ride.

Out of the clouds with no Derby points and on the AE list:
Tale of Verve - Dallas Stewart - *B. Hernandez to ride if two horses exit the race.

*edited to fix jockey error. C. Nakatani will ride Frammento.

Quote: Keeneone

Out of the clouds with no Derby points and on the AE list:
Tale of Verve - Dallas Stewart - C. Nakatani to ride if two horses exit the race.

With all information in hand that I'm likely to get before Saturday, the identity and order of my top tier has not changed but I have shifted my "fair value" odds line on them, as well as the rest of the field.

Orig FV line Revised Avg odds/$1 on my future book tickets

17% 5/1 > 15% 6/1 Carpe Diem 27/1
15% 6/1 > 14% 7/1 Materiality 43/1
12% 9/1 = 12% 9/1 Frosted 35/1

That also happens to be the order in which I have the most future book money on them, listed from most to relatively less.

Other than making some little token straight-up raceday win bet for bragging rights which is pretty much mandatory for this, I really don't need any more exposure for the win on any of these that I'm most interested in. I'm also not going to be hedging my Derby future wagers, at least not directly. But near post time I will be looking closely at the pari-mutual money flow and proportional distribution of it among all the pools for any added risk/reward value I may get other than win wagering.

I'll be particularly looking for any leverage that may be available by betting to place and especially to show. If the distribution of money offers > $5 to show (per $2) on a wagering interest I estimate is > 40% to hit the board, with significant additional upside in the payout if the favorite doesn't get the trip or the distance and finishes off the board, I'll be all over that in the last minute as they load at the gate. If it is available at the right EV in the relevant pari-mutual pool(s) it will likely end up being the largest chunk of money I have on this. It could be considered an indirect form of hedging, but I won't be doing it for that purpose.

For me it will be a straightforward question of expected value considered independently of any wagers that are already booked. Looking to collect something like $6 or possibly $7 per $2 risked on a show wager also will not win wild applause or excite most gamblers, but I don't care. That isn't what I do it for, and it is a common sort of wager for me producing a very satisfactory ROI over time.

Over the next few days I'll be mostly burrowing into the undercard and some races at a few other major tracks, especially on grass, for likely opportunities from the anomolous wagering patterns that are unique to Derby day (normal legit 9/5 shots that tend to pay 3/1+ on that peculiar day), and probably won't have much more to say here before Saturday. Unless it involves some brief observations from my scheduled base camp in a mid-strip book, perhaps involving the adventure of conducting a ground assault through the expected combat zone of crazed boxing groupies and escaping with my life & property.

I fully expect some random ping-ponging at the break and on the first turn to unpredictably take out more than a couple from any real chance they had. It almost always does in this. Good luck.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
For disclosure that I feel obliged to do here (and not with the illusion of any reason for anyone else but my creditors to care) here's the state of the straight win ticket portion of my future book wagers:

Solidly in (4):

• Carpe Diem
• Frosted
• Materiality
• Mubtaahij

In but iffy in my opinion (2):

• Bolo
• Itsaknockout

-snip-

I have 7 runners with future tickets:

• Carpe Diem
• Firing Line
• Keen Ice
• War Story
• Danzig Moon
• Stanford
• Mubtaahij (best ROI if he wins)

here's the tri

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2448546-jimmy-fallon-predicts-2015-kentucky-derby-winner-with-the-help-of-puppies?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-national