First Saturday in May

Quote: DrawingDead

After more digging and prodding and poking at it, I'm still not buying either of Dos Bafferts as mile and a quarter horses, so those holding tickets on either of them will please remember to thank me for providing the money to cash them. I'm not going to be hedging my positions in the remaining few weeks, or on race day. My only problem is that I have two and a half other colts that I like for this, and that's about one too many to be able to easily plan my wagering approach on the day.
I've added the Arkansas Derby card at Oaklawn to this time chart, along with the published Beyer figure for each of the major final Derby points qualifying 3 y/o stakes:
-edited by Keeneone-

Thanks for the update. Not a big deal, but the 6 furlong split in the Oaklawn handicap looks 3 one-hundredths faster than the Arkansas Derby. So I guess it should be in red?
----------

So no Dortmund or American Pharoah for DD. Which one are you more concerned about beating your 2.5 horses?
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There are still many more variables to think about and process in the coming weeks:
Workouts
Jockey changes
Post position draw and field size
Track conditions

Jockeys

Many horseplayers find little value in this discussion, but I find it interesting and sometimes revealing.

Mike Smith has ridden a number of contenders: Far Right, Bolo, Ocho³.
Calvin Borel ("Bo-rail") is looking for a mount and may end up back on El Kabeir.
Jose Ortiz has ridden Upstart and Tencendur.
Javier Castellano is looking for a mount. He has ridden Stanford but I would guess he gets Pletcher's 2nd choice runner.
John Velazquez has a interesting choice of runners to consider: Carpe Diem, Materiality, MadefromLucky
Most of the other runners/jockeys look set, but there could still be changes by trainers/owners.

So what does all this mean? Probably little, but if Johnny V ends up on Materiality it would get my attention. If he stays on Carpe Diem (as I expect) then Materiality would get a new jockey (I would guess J Castellano) for the Derby.

Quote: Keeneone

Thanks for the update. Not a big deal, but the 6 furlong split in the Oaklawn handicap looks 3 one-hundredths faster than the Arkansas Derby. So I guess it should be in red?

Ha! Fixed it. Probably best to proofread the details when posting something that's all about details down to the excruciatingly detailed hundredths of seconds in a mid-race fraction.

Quote: DrawingDead

After more digging and prodding and poking at it, I'm still not buying either of Dos Bafferts as mile and a quarter horses, so those holding tickets on either of them will please remember to thank me for providing the money to cash them. I'm not going to be hedging my positions in the remaining few weeks, or on race day. My only problem is that I have two and a half other colts that I like for this, and that's about one too many to be able to easily plan my wagering approach on the day.

DD, my question for you is this: Are you saying you don't think Pharoah and Dortmund are the most likely winners, or you just don't like the price you're going to get on them?

Quote: FinsRule

DD, my question for you is this: Are you saying you don't think Pharoah and Dortmund are the most likely winners, or you just don't like the price you're going to get on them?

Yes.

I haven't thought either is the most likely to win that specific race (though it certainly is possible that either could) at that distance and likely pace, and I don't like the price. While the probability of it happening for either has increased to this point (as it has for some others) I think their chances of getting there in good order, getting the trip, and most of all staying a mile and a quarter are smaller than what their odds have been, are, and will most likely be on race day. Race wagering is always about probabilities vs. price, under conditions of uncertain and incomplete information; almost anything making it into the gate has some possibility of being first across the wire.

In the case of a Baffert trainee there's an extra added unknowable element involved, because the performance will be less about the inherent characteristics of the actual horse, and mostly about the current state of the ever changing (*ahem*) Baffert Institute of Equine Experimental Veterinary Medicine, which becomes a particularly random unknowable factor in this race with all the extra scrutiny of special security measures. Under these specific unique circumstances for this particular race, it is something that can cut in either direction for anything coming from him.

As a little aside on something I have a bit of a problem with, here's a rhetorical question for one to consider: When the CHRB was finally forced to "investigate" the extraordinary number of Baffert horses suddenly dropping dead for no apparent reason a while back, why did they find that every single one of his horses were then being "treated" for the same supposed (usually congenital) medical condition with thyroid growth hormones?

EDIT to add: I would say those are the two most likely to screw me in my wagering for this. But that's not the same thing as saying either is the most likely winner in my opinion.

Quote: FinsRule

On a slightly different note, the only way to make money on the Derby is to beat the favorite, or play ONE favorite in exotics. So I think I'll use International Star and Mubtaahij in the Oaks/Derby double. I'll single AP on top of either the tri or super.

I did a Chrome with all exacta last year. $36 bet paid out $340 (I actually bet $72 to pay $680) and that has been the lower end of exacta payouts. I'll probably do a Pharoah/Dortmund with all exacta this year

Nineteen days out and with all qualifying events in the books, probably time to revisit the original thread starter list from Pool #1:

Quote: DrawingDead

1 12 American Pharoah 7.0
2 20 Blofeld 6.2
3 20 Calculator 6.4
4 20 Carpe Diem 7.9
5 50 Classy Class 6.1
6 20 Competitive Edge 6.3
7 20 Daredevil 7.1
8 50 Dortmund 7.0
9 50 Eagle 7.1
10 50 El Kabeir 7.1
11 50 Frosted 7.5
12 50 I Spent It 6.4
13 50 Imperia 7.3
14 30 Lord Nelson 7.5
15 50 Lucky Player 6.7
16 30 Mr. Z 7.0
17 20 Ocho Ocho Ocho 7.3
18 50 Ostrolenka 7.0
19 50 Punctuate 7.0
20 15 Texas Red 8.1
21 30 The Great War 7.4
22 50 Unblunted 6.3
23 20 Upstart 6.9
24 3/5 All Others (Field)

So just a scosch over a third of the named individual betting interests from November are still in it at this point. I'd guesstimate about 1.5 of these remaining eight not making it to the gate to become official starters, due to illness, injury, or whatever. That would put my current o/u line on starters from Pool #1 at 6.5, which is well over the 3.5 o/u I suggested when I took a shot at an estimate of that back then on December 1st. And I'd nominate Ocho Ocho Ocho to be the 1/2 horse to make it in, so he could become Quatro Cubed.

For disclosure that I feel obliged to do here (and not with the illusion of any reason for anyone else but my creditors to care) here's the state of the straight win ticket portion of my future book wagers:

Solidly in (4):

• Carpe Diem
• Frosted
• Materiality
• Mubtaahij

In but iffy in my opinion (2):

• Bolo
• Itsaknockout

Toast (4):

• Far From Over
• Imperia
• Khozan (sigh)
• Lord Nelson

All six of the potential starters are selling with payouts for a LOT less than the odds of their tickets locked in at the time of purchase, but I believe I was lucky in catching a flaky line on at least two of them that was for a significantly higher payout than the real market price prevalent at the time.

Quote: Beardgoat

I did a Chrome with all exacta last year. $36 bet paid out $340 (I actually bet $72 to pay $680) and that has been the lower end of exacta payouts. I'll probably do a Pharoah/Dortmund with all exacta this year

I liked that bet last year, not as much this year. I think you have to pick one out of Dortmund and Pharoah. If it goes Dortmund / One lucky Dane, is that exacta going to pay more than $60 or $70? The bet will cost you $38. I don't think I'm going to use the all button this year. I think there's a few throw outs.

List of Derby contenders (Top 24) who have not won a race against winners (some have been close):

Danzig Moon
Tencendur
Mr Z
Keen Ice
Frammento
Bold Conquest

Is this a worthwhile fact to consider when looking for live runners?

Because there are people who lurk in threads like this and may assume people have thought through what they are doing, this needs to be said. Being nice is good, but sometimes it is necessary to speak plainly.

Someone using the method of exacta betting described in the previous several posts, flat betting presumed favorites over the field or a large proportion of it, is mathematically certain to eventually lose about 30-35% of their money if they were to do that over a long enough series of races under similar circumstances. They will eventually tend to lose about two to two and a half times as much as casual fans blindly betting the favorites they happen to feel emotionally attached to because of how they looked and whatnot (which really isn't the worst thing at all that one could do financially as a casual fan stretching the budget for this entertainment, since blind betting heavy favorites in straight wagers actually loses less than the % of takeout on average).

Doing either of those things is just fine and there's certainly nothing wrong with it within someone's entertainment budget: as a fan, for fun, for sheer gambling, whatever. But if the intention (or illusion) involves attaching some importance to the actual long-range financial result, what is described is consistently overbet by the least informed part of casual racetrack fans/gamblers, and is both heavily bet far below any rational calculation of probabilities and also subject to increased takeout rates, and is one of the most epic sucker bets at the track.

In order to determine the most effective bet financially, rather than for expressing some emotional reasons or for satisfaction of impulses, it is necessary to do some actual math to calculate what the fair value payout should be for one type and structure of bet in comparison to another bet, such as to win and/or to place, and to do so for each and every individual separate bet involved, using the actual odds produced by each of the specific pools in-effect at the time. That would require a little effort, performing some calculation with the actual odds being laid and the probabilities implied by each. Though not a lot, and not beyond high-school level arithmetic operations. There are even some simple "Cliff's Notes" shortcuts around with automated calculators and charts to perform part of the task for people, usually arriving at a reasonably useful approximation of the question: "if A = N1 win, and B = N2 win, then fair value of A,B exacta > Nx." No, I will not direct y'all to them. It would not be a good idea for someone who hasn't thought through the underlying fundamentals; it would be misused in some inapplicable circumstances, and also just offends me to hand out in this context.

Do what you like. But because this is a public forum, that needed to be said, in spite of the annoyance I imagine it may cause. If you want to know about the why and how, do a tiny bit of research on the topic, and then apply a little math. On your own. I will not explain. For those who don't wish to be bothered with any of that, I have absolutely no intention of doing it for you or of convincing you of anything. So for those folks (who will always thankfully be most of the crowd at the track or in the book) good luck, and have fun. I think that's fine, for those who knowingly make that choice. Sincerely.

I have been keeping this video to myself, but now is the time to share with others. I believe it is the key "prep" for the 141^st Derby.



This race was at Golden Gate Fields on a synthetic track. There was a Steward's Inquiry due to the winner not maintaining a straight course. He/she actually crossed over most of the field down the stretch. No change was made and Weiner Dog #8 won impressively. He/she was awarded a 110 DSF (Dog Speed Figure) for the race. He/she looks the one to beat and a must include in all exactas. :)

Here is a handy Brisnet free past performances (PDF format) link for Kentucky Derby 141:

http://www.brisnet.com/promo/uwb.pdf

Quote: Keeneone

Here is a handy Brisnet free past performances (PDF format) link for Kentucky Derby 141:

http://www.brisnet.com/promo/uwb.pdf

Thank you. Nice to have it available this soon, and I find some things to like about the Brisnet format.

The wiener dog thing is a noble attempt after a cranky post from me, but I'm afraid the Bay wieners are probably not quite up to the the class level of a good ostrich race.

Quote: Keeneone

Show Spoiler

Warning, this silly post is an attempt to add a little levity to the thread.

I have been keeping this video to myself, but now is the time to share with others. I believe it is the key "prep" for the 141^st Derby.

This race was at Golden Gate Fields on a synthetic track. There was a Steward's Inquiry due to the winner not maintaining a straight course. He/she actually crossed over most of the field down the stretch. No change was made and Weiner Dog #8 won impressively. He/she was awarded a 110 DSF (Dog Speed Figure) for the race. He/she looks the one to beat and a must include in all exactas. :)

why can't they run on real dirt????

Quote: DrawingDead

Because there are people who lurk in threads like this and may assume people have thought through what they are doing, this needs to be said. Being nice is good, but sometimes it is necessary to speak plainly.

Someone using the method of exacta betting described in the previous several posts, flat betting presumed favorites over the field or a large proportion of it, is mathematically certain to eventually lose about 30-35% of their money if they were to do that over a long enough series of races under similar circumstances. They will eventually tend to lose about two to two and a half times as much as casual fans blindly betting the favorites they happen to feel emotionally attached to because of how they looked and whatnot (which really isn't the worst thing at all that one could do financially as a casual fan stretching the budget for this entertainment, since blind betting heavy favorites in straight wagers actually loses less than the % of takeout on average).

Doing either of those things is just fine and there's certainly nothing wrong with it within someone's entertainment budget: as a fan, for fun, for sheer gambling, whatever. But if the intention (or illusion) involves attaching some importance to the actual long-range financial result, what is described is consistently overbet by the least informed part of casual racetrack fans/gamblers, and is both heavily bet far below any rational calculation of probabilities and also subject to increased takeout rates, and is one of the most epic sucker bets at the track.

In order to determine the most effective bet financially, rather than for expressing some emotional reasons or for satisfaction of impulses, it is necessary to do some actual math to calculate what the fair value payout should be for one type and structure of bet in comparison to another bet, such as to win and/or to place, and to do so for each and every individual separate bet involved, using the actual odds produced by each of the specific pools in-effect at the time. That would require a little effort, performing some calculation with the actual odds being laid and the probabilities implied by each. Though not a lot, and not beyond high-school level arithmetic operations. There are even some simple "Cliff's Notes" shortcuts around with automated calculators and charts to perform part of the task for people, usually arriving at a reasonably useful approximation of the question: "if A = N1 win, and B = N2 win, then fair value of A,B exacta > Nx." No, I will not direct y'all to them. It would not be a good idea for someone who hasn't thought through the underlying fundamentals; it would be misused in some inapplicable circumstances, and also just offends me to hand out in this context.

Do what you like. But because this is a public forum, that needed to be said, in spite of the annoyance I imagine it may cause. If you want to know about the why and how, do a tiny bit of research on the topic, and then apply a little math. On your own. I will not explain. For those who don't wish to be bothered with any of that, I have absolutely no intention of doing it for you or of convincing you of anything. So for those folks (who will always thankfully be most of the crowd at the track or in the book) good luck, and have fun. I think that's fine, for those who knowingly make that choice. Sincerely.

I'm pretty sure you're talking to me regarding my strategy last year. Obviously I will look at the math involved and make the bet that pays out the most money. Betting a $4 exacta chrome with all cost $76. It paid $340... If I just bet $76 straight up on chrome to win it only paid $266. So I made an extra $74 dollars by simply putting my money into an exacta. Was that not the smart thing to do ?

Quote: Keeneone

Here is a handy Brisnet free past performances (PDF format) link for Kentucky Derby 141:

http://www.brisnet.com/promo/uwb.pdf

Thanks. Now that I see them together, this year looks like a head scratcher.

I guess we'll all settle for the $5 exacta.

Beardgoat, the reason it's not a great bet is because you got almost the best 2nd place finisher possible, and it wasn't that much better than just doing the win bet. I think the all button is better reserved for the end of the tri or super, or for a leg of a pick-4.

If you do Pharoah and all for $38 and it goes Pharoah / Dortmund, you might lose money...

Just my two cents.

I don't want to pick on you in particular, Mr. Goat. It isn't like this is something that's uncommon or unique to you at all. And I shouldn't care, and usually just try to bite my tongue and paste a fake virtual smile on myself about other folks' betting, since it is no skin off my assets and when large numbers of people do the same it even tends to create opportunities that benefit me. But it is "a thing" that does still dumbfound me, in the same way as hearing the screeching sound of someone driving around with their brake pads chewing up their rotors and damaging their own vehicle because "it is working" now, or occasionally peeking at some of the baccarat system threads that pop up here - for exactly the same reason. Because I'm answering your post I'm using the pronoun "you" to do so, but it isn't about you individually and is more accurately a generic "y'all."

Quote: Beardgoat

Betting a $4 exacta chrome with all cost $76. It paid $340... If I just bet $76 straight up on chrome to win it only paid $266. So I made an extra $74 dollars by simply putting my money into an exacta. Was that not the smart thing to do ?

Depends. Was every bet on that ticket paying the same odds? Nope? Huh, how 'bout dat.

So then, do you feel the 38/1 shot that finished 2nd that time and since then has never finished anywhere near the front in any kind of race anywhere ever, had about the same probability of finishing second that day as say Danza or Wicked Strong who were 3rd & 4th at 6/1, in which cases you'd have cashed your ticket while losing most of the money you bet? Or if the same race was run again, do you think there might be a difference in the probability of different outcomes that pay very different amounts, almost all of them much less than that? And is that difference possibly related at all in any way to the wagering and therefore the different payouts?

That specific bet on that one combination actually did pay a little better than fair value compared to a win bet. Not much, but a little. But were you aware of that at the time while betting all others equally for the place spot? Did you have any idea you were also betting many combinations paying much less not only in abolute dollar amount but also compared to their probability than for straight wagers to win or place, while betting each of them equally without regard to price or probability? Does it actually seem plausible that flat betting exactly the same amount on each of many combinations without regard to price or probability could possibly ever be "smart?"

If I bet $100 on thirty-six red and it hit, does that demonstrate that I have a positive expectation of putting money on thirty-six red? In recent years the race has been won by a horse from an even numbered gate in an odd numbered year, followed by an odd number in an even year, then an even number, and last year an odd number; so perhaps I should take that as evidence I should bet the even numbers in '15 because that is profitable? They are rhetorical questions, meaning that I'm not seeking any response.

It is just something one might choose to think about a little bit when their money is involved. Or not, as they wish, if it really makes them happy not to think about it, like putting the money in the slot and randomly slapping that "spin" button on the slots.

Quote: DrawingDead

Thank you. Nice to have it available this soon, and I find some things to like about the Brisnet format.
-snip-

Lots of data points to look at in those pps. I liked seeing all of Mubtaahij's running lines together. I also like some of the specialty data like LP....

Quote: Sabretom2

Thanks. Now that I see them together, this year looks like a head scratcher.

I guess we'll all settle for the $5 exacta.

Yep. 16 more days of head-scratching to unlock the race.

Quote: Beardgoat

I'm pretty sure you're talking to me regarding my strategy last year. Obviously I will look at the math involved and make the bet that pays out the most money. Betting a $4 exacta chrome with all cost $76. It paid $340... If I just bet $76 straight up on chrome to win it only paid $266. So I made an extra $74 dollars by simply putting my money into an exacta. Was that not the smart thing to do ?

Last year's results proved your strategy can work. But it requires a bomb like Commanding Curve @ ~ 38/1 to work well. IMO, feel free to do it again this year. Just tell me which favored horse you put on top first.... :)

Not trying to speak for DD or anything, but Drawing Dead's post also alludes to the Takeout rate (which varies by track and is 22% for the exacta @ Churchill Downs). This fact, combined with a large field, combined with the "over-betting" of favorites on Derby Day, leads to diminished returns on the exacta wagers that include the favorites.

Michael de Kock discusses how he's planned the nitty gritty details for bringing in Mubtaahij that I was wondering about earlier:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91278/mubtaahij-heads-to-skylight-in-louisville

Sounds very much like the right way (and not the way chosen by some others in other years) to give him his best shot, in my opinion.

I wish he was taking visitors, I'll be at Arlington on Friday.

Quote: DrawingDead

Michael de Kock discusses how he's planned the nitty gritty details for bringing in Mubtaahij that I was wondering about earlier:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91278/mubtaahij-heads-to-skylight-in-louisville

Sounds very much like the right way (and not the way chosen by some others in other years) to give him his best shot, in my opinion.

Here is another article on Bloodhorse that goes into more detail about this horse's trip to the USA:
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2015/04/15/mubtaahij-leaves-for-america.aspx
Interesting stuff that includes a change to his diet. Love this quote (about the field) from de Kock:
"My goodness, I couldn’t have found another year?” he said jokingly.

A little problem some might be about to encounter, and I gather that at least one of us has been doing some advance chewing on: If I really liked the two probable co-favorites for this, Pharoah/Dortmund (I don't but I'll pretend), what would I do while keying either or both of them over the field (or most of it) in the exacta? What is the o/u on what THAT Baffert/Baffert combination would pay? Probably an amount that would make me sad, right after I thought I was happy. If those were the two I thought were the most likely winners, is there a particular reason I should think either is less likely to simultaneously complete the exacta? Maybe there is, but if so I really can't think of what that reason would be.

I really don't have anything useful to help with that conundrum; I'm just enjoying a little shameless schadenfreude moment with the thought. Shame on me. Y'all should sue for intentional infliction of whatchacallit. But I'll try to fake being a nice boy possessed of a naturally kind and generous spirit now.

Quote: Keeneone

I also like some of the specialty data like LP....

Do you happen to know how Brisnet calculates their "E1, E2, LP" numbers? I don't. Maybe the raw fractional time at a point of call vs. a par value for the class, perhaps? I dunno. Some of the races involved would have a limited amount of relevant data, due to a completely new surface in the most obvious case of Keeneland and their one short prior meet with it last fall for example.

Quote: Keeneone

"My goodness, I couldn’t have found another year?” he said jokingly.

His joking aside, I really do think there's a lot to that. Several recent years would've been a lot better "luck of the draw" to ship one in for this. I think it looks like one of the most salty Derby fields in quite a while.

It is an interesting and more detailed piece, and I probably would've missed catching the expanded version.

Quote: DrawingDead

-edited-
I really don't have anything useful to help with that conundrum; I'm just enjoying a little shameless schadenfreude moment with the thought. Shame on me. Y'all should sue for intentional infliction of whatchacallit. But I'll try to fake being a nice boy possessed of a naturally kind and generous spirit now.Do you happen to know how Brisnet calculates their "E1, E2, LP" numbers? I don't. Maybe the raw fractional time at a point of call vs. a par value for the class, perhaps? I dunno. Some of the races involved would have a limited amount of relevant data, due to a completely new surface in the most obvious case of Keeneland and their one short prior meet with it last fall for example.

Here you go:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=pace


About Mike de Kock:
Yes, it looks a tough year to bring one over, but it will be that much sweeter if his charge wins it all....

Thx:

Quote:

HOW ARE THE BRIS PACE RATINGS CALCULATED ?
Bloodstock Research uses proprietary techniques and algorithms which have been rigorously tested and long proven over hundreds of thousands of races to accurately compute the BRIS Pace variants and ratings.

...<Followed by stuff that's more useful than that.>...

Hmmm. "Proprietary techniques and algorithms which have been rigorously..." I tried a line like that on a (former) girlfriend once. She didn't buy it. Smart girl, unfortunately. But hungry for scraps of info I know I'll still throw it in the stew of things I consider on some level. Beyer did a number of very explicitly detailed books on methodology of variants & speed figures long before he got into selling the resulting race-specific numbers for publication; dog-eared decades old copies of them are holding down part of a shelf that's within arm's reach right now. But Andy-boy doesn't do pace. And neither evaluates trips.

Cyrus Alexander is running in Santa Anita's 3rd on Thursday the 15th. Now that my Derby future wagers on him are dead, he will likely win by open lengths wrapped up at the finish. Kidding aside, I do actually like him in the race, but unfortunately he is the morning line 9/5 favorite. Hopefully his odds will drift up and not down. Rock Shandy and Harmonic have stakes experience.

Remember kids, always look for value. Hahahaha

Thank you for pointing out my obvious mistake in not considering the 2nd place finishers odds. That's why I'm not AP haha.

An article on espn asks if this is the greatest ever KD field. Almost impossible to say but could be fun to discuss?
Go!

I've only been closely paying attention for 6 derbies. Before, I'd just pick a horse and watch every year.

So, I'm a bad source. But... This is by far the best field in 6 derbies. Last year had some nice 3 year olds but they werent in the derby. This year they are.

Yes, in my limited participation of this great race, this is by far the best. I don't think it is very deep, for me the top 6 or 7 will strand out, the balance may be also rans. Here is my provisional top 4.

Mubtaahij
Dortmund
American pharaoh
Frosted

I wasn't going to do this 'till about another 10 days hence, but...

This year I have about two and a half colts for which I expect to see an attractive risk/reward for this, two others that I think could be live enough & may offer enough of a return to include on some tickets if the price is right, and five more that I think legitimately belong here with a real shot even though I'm not interested in betting them, for a total of ten that would not surprise me at the wire if the race happens to unfold to their advantage. That's about two to three times the number that I'm usually taking seriously to some degree.

To impose some discipline in any wagering I might be tempted to do on the day, I like to make an odds line for this with my estimate of fair value. And I find the simple exercise of taking account of the entire field and making the line balance is useful in itself. I don't expect it to match the tote board or to reflect the general consensus of opinion leading to the race. And I don't expect it to stay exactly this way for me over the next 15 days, as some will show signs of being less than perfectly fit or having trouble moving over the eccentric Churchill surface while others blossom and thrive on it. Someone will also have to scratch in the last few days before the race. Always happens; inevitable part of the game.

If they were loading at the gate right now, my estimated win probability and opinion of what I'd consider to be the minimum fair value odds (not what I expect to see on the tote board):

My top tier:
17% 5/1 Carpe Diem 7.9f
15% 6/1 Materiality 7.4f
11% 9/1 Frosted 7.5f

My potential live price possibilities:
8% 12/1 Mubtaahij 8.6f
7% 13/1 Danzig Moon 7.3f

Real contenders, but ones that I still have no interest in betting on whatsoever:
9% 11/1 International Star 7.3f
8% 12/1 Dortmund 7.1f
7% 13/1 American Pharoah* 7.0f
6% 15/1 Upstart 6.9f
5% 20/1 Firing Line 6.9f

7% - - - Collective chance among ten others including El Kabeir, Itsaknockout, Mr. Z, Ocho, Stanford, etc.

Folks following this thread for a while will be familiar with what the other numbers I have next to the names are about, and part of my reasoning in arriving at these opinions will be immediately obvious in connection with that. A few of those 'x.xf' numbers above are slightly different from what someone who is very attentive may have seen in some other posts, due to some adjustments from the data I have. But none of the differences are significant or likely to be material to my or anyone's decision on this; all changes in either direction are only 0.1f adjustments.

*By the way, has anyone ever noticed that Pharaoh is spelled wrong in the name "American Pharoah?" The 'a' & 'o' are reversed. The owner, Ahmed Zayat of Zayat Stables is originally from Cairo (Egypt, not Illinois) with multiple advanced degrees from Boston University, so I guess it must be intentional.

One Lucky Dane off the Derby trail. He had an issue during a workout. Lost his left front shoe and had an issue with that leg.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91341/one-lucky-dane-off-derby-trail-after-workout
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Madefromlucky now moves into 20th place in Derby points.

I bet against the bridge jumpers on shared belief. Once again, should have bet more than $2 on each horse! I hope he's ok.

Quote: FinsRule

I bet against the bridge jumpers on shared belief. Once again, should have bet more than $2 on each horse! I hope he's ok.

I was thinking the same thing, but instead put win money on Moreno and Vyjack, tripled my money, you did much better.

I too hope he is ok, sounds like he is.

6 Moreno..........16.00 12.00 23.20
9 Imperative..............41.60 71.20
5 Page McKenney................45.60

So I slave away over a stack of Racing Forms all day, and only manage to eke out a few bucks. Meanwhile someone just waltzes in and casually bets a few bucks on everything to show and walks out a few minutes later with a stack of cash...

Well done.

Quote: DrawingDead

6 Moreno..........16.00 12.00 23.20
9 Imperative..............41.60 71.20
5 Page McKenney................45.60

So I slave away over a stack of Racing Forms all day, and only manage to eke out a few bucks. Meanwhile someone just waltzes in and casually bets a few bucks on everything to show and walks out a few minutes later with a stack of cash...

Well done.

You make it sound like it didn't take any thought to make the bet.

Anyway, this race taught me the lesson to never ever ever ever make a bridge jump bet.

Quote: FinsRule

You make it sound like it didn't take any thought to make the bet.

Anyway, this race taught me the lesson to never ever ever ever make a bridge jump bet.

Did it? I continued my annual tradition of paying absolutely no attention whatsoever to any of the races at Charles Town, so I have no idea what I might think about any thought there may have been, if I'd thought about it. But I do sometimes enjoy seeing 'can't miss' minus pools implode into a smoldering hole in the ground, with a six figure or more bet becoming a charcoal briquette at the bottom of it.

With too much time on my hands in this twilight zone leading up to the race I've been scrutinizing the 'bubble' horses that may get into the Derby field if they get a little (likely) help from some more scratches by those with more qualifying points, those that are now #21-#24 on the points list: Keen Ice, Frammento, Bold Conquest, and The Truth Or Else. My conclusion is that none of them are likely to matter. Some years they do; this year I don't think so. All are slow, none have shown any significant tactical speed to potentially affect the pace and overall race shape for others, and those that may have stamina to get the distance (Keen Ice & Bold Conquest) do not appear capable of getting there among this company even if the race melts down in front of them – if they can find a race at a mile and a quarter that can be won in about 2:05 & change they may be in business. This is not it. So, unlike some other recent years I plan to completely ignore them, in or out. And yes, as a matter of fact, this probably is the least exciting post you've read this year, but it is what it is.

Who is going to be this year's “wiseguy horse?” Every year there just has to be a 'wiseguy' horse. One that is not among the favorites, but becomes the subject of some buzz in the last week or so before the race with chatter floating around books & some scruffy little rinky-dink tracks & OTBs about a plausible story line for why they are really the smart choice for “in-the-know” wiseguys. I don't remember any wiseguy horse actually winning the thing, but a few have run well, occasionally picking up one of the minor checks behind the winner.

My guess for this year's "Wiseguy horse" is Danzig Moon.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
If they were loading at the gate right now, my estimated win probability and opinion of what I'd consider to be the minimum fair value odds (not what I expect to see on the tote board):

My top tier:
17% 5/1 Carpe Diem 7.9f
15% 6/1 Materiality 7.4f
11% 9/1 Frosted 7.5f

My potential live price possibilities:
8% 12/1 Mubtaahij 8.6f
7% 13/1 Danzig Moon 7.3f

Real contenders, but ones that I still have no interest in betting on whatsoever:
9% 11/1 International Star 7.3f
8% 12/1 Dortmund 7.1f
7% 13/1 American Pharoah* 7.0f
6% 15/1 Upstart 6.9f
5% 20/1 Firing Line 6.9f

7% - - - Collective chance among ten others including El Kabeir, Itsaknockout, Mr. Z, Ocho, Stanford, etc.
-snip-

Thank you for this post. Not surprisingly, my top horse is the same as yours. My top 2:

1) Carpe Diem - He has been my pick all along. I really believe we have not seen his best race yet.
2) Dortmund - He has been the best horse to this point, even better than Carpe Diem. He has run 5 straight sub 1:36 miles on 3 different tracks (including Churchill Downs). That is almost unbelievable to me. He will be there down the stretch, but can he get the extra furlong? I say yes.

In an effort to keep it short and to the point, I did not list every reason I think these 2 are the most likely winners of the race. I will post a few runners I will be using underneath (Tri/Sup) as we get closer in.

Quote: FinsRule

My guess for this year's "Wiseguy horse" is Danzig Moon.

Danzig Moon is a good guess. I could also see Frosted, International Star, or El Kabeir (with Borel now officially riding him).
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Silly question: Which betting "angle" is the most annoying to read about coming into the Derby? I will list a few:

He is the "wiseguy" horse.
This horse is undefeated!
Pletcher's record (PEIC) in the derby (1 win with 24 starters).
Apollo (un-raced 2yo).
Baffert has never won with the favorite (0 for 6).
Storm Cat offspring has never won.
<enter name>'s daddy won!
No Wood Memorial winner has won since 2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus).
On a rainy day, bet a grey. (Frosted, El Kabeir)
Always bet Calvin Borel ("Bo-rail").
Other = ?

Quote: Keeneone

Silly question: Which betting "angle" is the most annoying to read about coming into the Derby? I will list a few:

[ x ] The inevitable annoyance to be named later in the network & sports channel coverage: The heartwarming tale of the horse's trainer's recovering Candy Crush addict groom's cute terminally ill niece's disabled pet gerbil's affectionate relationship with the horse, or someone who once had something to do with the horse, or something that had a name that sounded kinda like the horse.

William Hill's current Derby future odds (4/20 @2:45pm PT):

5/2 American Pharoah
7/2 Carpe Diem
7/2 Dortmund
10/1 Firing Line
10/1 Mubtaahij
12/1 Materiality
12/1 Upstart
14/1 Frosted
15/1 International Star
18/1 El Kabeir
20/1 Far Right
25/1 Bolo
25/1 Itsaknockout
30/1 War Story
35/1 Danzig Moon
40/1 Frammento
40/1 Keen Ice
40/1 Mr. Z
40/1 Madefromlucky
40/1 Ocho Ocho Ocho
50/1 Stanford
50/1 Tencendur
75/1 Bold Conquest

*By the way, now that it is down to 23 named wagering interests, the house 'hold' in this William Hill future book line is 37.75%! I chose Wm. Hill's to post not because it is the best line, but just because it is conveniently available to check among the legal US/Nevada brick & mortar books (they are technically sports wagers, only legal in Nevada). Maybe they are trying to make up for booking wagers for Drawing Dead at > 25/1 on Carpe Diem, 40 & 45/1 on Materiality, 20/1 on Mubtaahij, and 35/1 on Frosted.

Quote: DrawingDead

[ x ] William Hill's current Derby future odds (4/20 @2:45pm PT):

5/2 American Pharoah
7/2 Carpe Diem
7/2 Dortmund

In an expected 20 horse field they have three horses 7/2 or less? Even with 37% hold that looks like a joke

Quote: Keeneone

JockeysMany horseplayers find little value in this discussion, but I find it interesting and sometimes revealing.
Mike Smith has ridden a number of contenders: Far Right, Bolo, Ocho³.
Calvin Borel ("Bo-rail") is looking for a mount and may end up back on El Kabeir.
Jose Ortiz has ridden Upstart and Tencendur.
Javier Castellano is looking for a mount. He has ridden Stanford but I would guess he gets Pletcher's 2nd choice runner.
John Velazquez has a interesting choice of runners to consider: Carpe Diem, Materiality, MadefromLucky
Most of the other runners/jockeys look set, but there could still be changes by trainers/owners.
So what does all this mean? Probably little, but if Johnny V ends up on Materiality it would get my attention. If he stays on Carpe Diem (as I expect) then Materiality would get a new jockey (I would guess J Castellano) for the Derby.

Update on Jockeys:
Mike Smith : Far Right
Calvin Borel : El Kabeir
Jose Ortiz : Upstart
Manny Franco : Tencendur
Javier Castellano : Materiality
John Velazquez : Carpe Diem
R. Bejarano : Bolo
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In other news....Bolo and Ocho³ are going to run according to their handlers. Glad to see both in the race. Bolo because he is talented and Ocho³ to help keep the pace honest.
There are whispers Stanford and/or Madefromlucky may not run. This is not confirmed and just speculation.

Quote: DrawingDead

*By the way, has anyone ever noticed that Pharaoh is spelled wrong in the name "American Pharoah?" The 'a' & 'o' are reversed. The owner, Ahmed Zayat of Zayat Stables is originally from Cairo (Egypt, not Illinois) with multiple advanced degrees from Boston University, so I guess it must be intentional.

Today's Louisville Courier-Journal answered that, or tried to. It was a screw-up, with conflicting self-serving 'that other guy must've done it' versions of who screwed it up, how, and when:

That's 'Pharoah,' not 'Pharaoh,' for Derby fav

You'll have to answer a slightly annoying little 'survey' to read it or anything in the Courier-Journal, but you won't have to sign up for or buy anything.

Ocho³ will now ship to Churchill Downs. Elvis Trujillo to ride.
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Numerous final workouts coming in the next few days....
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Extended weather predictions are out for Fri/Sat May 1st/2nd. Some say clear and sunny, some say rain possible Friday evening. The forecast is likely to change....

Horseshoe Baltimore to offer horse race wagering with self wagering terminals and a teller on big race days.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-off-track-betting-horseshoe-20150423-story.html
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Why don't Vegas sportsbook have self betting terminals for the ponies? Well I guess William Hill (and others) do if you have an account? It is probably outlawed or maybe too expensive?

I have always preferred placing bets myself on the terminals.

I thought Trujillo didn't want to waste his time, and was going to stay in Cali and make money. Maybe he found other mounts in Louisville.

Quote: Keeneone

Horseshoe Baltimore to offer horse race wagering with self wagering terminals and a teller on big race days.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-off-track-betting-horseshoe-20150423-story.html
----------

Why don't Vegas sportsbook have self betting terminals for the ponies? Well I guess William Hill (and others) do if you have an account? It is probably outlawed or maybe too expensive?

I have always preferred placing bets myself on the terminals.

They do. I can easily understand why you'd prefer that. With rare exceptions, that is the only way I wager in Las Vegas books. I don't use clerks for pari-mutual race wagering. For a variety of reasons mostly having to do with speed of wagering & the exponential increase of the rate of movement of money among betting pools at post time, it would cost me money if I had to do it the old fashioned way. I think many of those still doing it 'old-school' with clerks punching out paper tickets at a mutual window are there because they're craving their social interaction with the clerks.

Most of the automated terminals in Las Vegas racebooks are IPT's (individual player terminals) which in case you aren't familiar with them are advance deposit account wagering touch-screens, allowing individuals to wager at their reserved private individual seat. They are available in limited numbers reserved for those who wager enough. They are somewhat expensive for the book, requiring a decent volume to amortize the cost, so not available for the $10 bettor. Not every book has them, but the more serious ones do. I don't go to books that can't provide me with one. There are also some stand alone kiosks and countertop terminals, similar to what you commonly find on-track, that can be used by feeding them either cash or a cash voucher.

The only major gaming company that doesn't have them at least at some of their larger or higher end properties is Caesars Entertainment. The MGM/Mirage Resorts properties, the Wynn, Boyd/Coast casinos, Westgate/LVH, Station Casinos, SouthPoint, and many others have them - one or the other or both, most commonly in the form of some reserved seating banks of IPTs. The IPTs do require an account, which takes only a couple of minutes and the completion of a simple one page document with basic identification to open.

I imagine many people aren't aware they exist, and may not even know what they are if they are standing near one. And this is partly why and how some apparently popular and very vocal but not very bright blowhards on this site who are regularly pontificating all manner of ludicrous nonsense from their fantasies of what and who they think is going on in the racebook (not in this thread) can continue to have absolutely no clue whatsoever who is actually doing what, even as what they don't know and who they don't see accounts for most of the wagering handle while they do it. It is invisible to them.

All they see are the $5 fleas (as they are affectionately termed in local lingo) and it never dawns on the poor fool that maybe something else is also happening. You probably already know that the "something else" of course amounts to a small portion of the headcount of bettors, but a large part of the money. Like going to Santa Anita and seeing nothing but the scruffy degenerates milling around on "mainline" and in the grandstand, if you never go upstairs. (Not that I'm saying there's anything wrong at all with having plenty of scruffy drunken flea degenerates blowing their money at the windows on mainline or in a book. I love them. Mostly. I'm all for that. With my sincere regards and best wishes to any of our degen fleas here.)

The consensus in the betting market seems to be settling firmly on American Pharoah. I'm seeing 5/2 down to 2/1 on A.P.

What happened to Itsaknockout? I wasn't surprised he didn't get the money in his last; I preferred Materiality and bet that way. But I thought 'Itsa..' was very legit going into the Florida Derby, and didn't expect him to disappear in the race.