Nareed
Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 10:09:10 AM permalink
If we pick an arbitrary point, say 1966, then every World Cup has been won by either the host country or a team that has already won it. The winners since 1966 are:

1966 England (host)
1970 Brazil (previous champion)
1974 Germany (previous champion and host)
1978 Argentina (host)
1982 Italy (previous champion)
1986 Argentina (previous champion)
1990 Germany (previous champion)
1994 Brazil (previous champion)
1998 France (host)
2002 Brazil (previous champion)
2006 Italy (previous champion)

Does this matter?

Granted the results of sporting events are not random (not entirely, at least), does this pattern mean anythign at all?

I ask because a coworker confidently predicted Spain would win this year. Immediately I told him "Not a chance. Since 1970 only hosts and previous champions have won." I don't know whay I said that. It's so, of course, but I don't know if it's significant. He offered me a bet, he wins if Spain wins, I win if any other country wins. I'm tempted.
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Doc
Doc
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June 7th, 2010 at 10:24:36 AM permalink
What's the line on Spain at the book makers? I'm not a sports bettor, but this sounds like a possible opportunity to hedge bets for a guaranteed win.

Of course, my comment is based on the assumption that your private bet is at even odds.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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June 7th, 2010 at 10:43:01 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

What's the line on Spain at the book makers? I'm not a sports bettor, but this sounds like a possible opportunity to hedge bets for a guaranteed win.

Of course, my comment is based on the assumption that your private bet is at even odds.



Spain is listed at 9:2, Argentina is at 24:5. If Nareed's bet is at even odds, will his coworker take more action? :-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Nareed
Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 10:43:08 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

What's the line on Spain at the book makers? I'm not a sports bettor, but this sounds like a possible opportunity to hedge bets for a guaranteed win.

Of course, my comment is based on the assumption that your private bet is at even odds.



The newspaper ads for a local book give Spain 7 to 2, which is the same they give Brazil. Next are Germany and England at 7 to 1.

Yes, the bet is at even odds, because the other guy didn't ask for odds and I'm not about to offer any ;)
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Roghaltz
Roghaltz
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June 7th, 2010 at 11:12:35 AM permalink
You can get Spain at +400 on Matchbook (4:1). I would bet him as much as he will take and then it lay it off (if you want, as someone suggested).

I don't believe there is anything to that list. The list is made up of perennial soccer powers, so its not surprising they win the WC. It's a small sample.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 7th, 2010 at 11:13:23 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

I'm tempted.



Take that bet sir! In sports betting, generally speaking, you 'Take the Field' over an individual team, which is exactly what you might find in private betting. Notoriously Tiger Woods has made that a little less certain in golf, or at least in his heyday.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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June 7th, 2010 at 11:29:34 AM permalink
When in Vegas, for shits and giggles, I'll throw $5 bets on my hometown teams for some futures games.

Other than that I don't follow or bet on sports.

But I do have my opinions.



Does the underdog try harder?
Or accept defeat before the game begins?

Does the favorite expect to win and therefore not give 100%?
Or play with confidence?

Does the support of the fans help the home team?
Or make it harder because they have to live up to the spectator's expectations?

Did either coach give a particularly inspiring lockerroom pep talk?


Based on all these things, it is impossible to answer a simple question such as "Do Sport Teams Have Memories?"




HOWEVER...
Quote: Nareed

He offered me a bet, he wins if Spain wins, I win if any other country wins. I'm tempted.

He's rolling the dice - once - and if his number comes up, he wins, any other number you win? And even money?

Hell, I'd take that bet any day of the week, even if the number he picks is 7!
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 7th, 2010 at 2:14:40 PM permalink
I think you could look at any single sport and find the probability of the home team winning is significantly over 50%. I'm not sure if it is not wanting to let down the home fans, and thus trying harder, or more tangible benefits of playing at home, like knowing the field, and the fans being noisy or quiet according at the right times. Probably some combination. I find in baseball the odds are better betting on home teams, especially home underdogs. I find the odds about the same on home and away teams in football and basketball, all other things being equal.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 7th, 2010 at 3:49:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think you could look at any single sport and find the probability of the home team winning is significantly over 50%.



But you don't figure that for a field of 32, do you? [I think that is correct at the moment]. I would sure take that bet for even money.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Nareed
Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 4:08:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I find the odds about the same on home and away teams in football and basketball, all other things being equal.



I should think the home field advantage for football would be huge. On the other hand, with so few games per season, it would be hard to find statistical significance.

One factor in playing at home is travel. away teams travel any time from the day before the game to a few days prior. Travel sometimes takes a toll on people, especially if they skip time zones (one reason the NFL realigned teams recently).

As to the home team in the World Cup, well, it depends on the team. Countries like Mexico, South Africa, the US, Japan, Korea, to name a few recent hosts, have as much chance to win as they have of reaching the Moon by flapping their arms.

There are a number of promotions ongoing in Mexico which provides reabtes depending on how the Mexican team does. Walmart will give you a 100% rebate on all HDTVs if Mexico reaches the semi-final round. Very few poeple have opted for that promotion.
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