Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 10:09:10 AM permalink
If we pick an arbitrary point, say 1966, then every World Cup has been won by either the host country or a team that has already won it. The winners since 1966 are:

1966 England (host)
1970 Brazil (previous champion)
1974 Germany (previous champion and host)
1978 Argentina (host)
1982 Italy (previous champion)
1986 Argentina (previous champion)
1990 Germany (previous champion)
1994 Brazil (previous champion)
1998 France (host)
2002 Brazil (previous champion)
2006 Italy (previous champion)

Does this matter?

Granted the results of sporting events are not random (not entirely, at least), does this pattern mean anythign at all?

I ask because a coworker confidently predicted Spain would win this year. Immediately I told him "Not a chance. Since 1970 only hosts and previous champions have won." I don't know whay I said that. It's so, of course, but I don't know if it's significant. He offered me a bet, he wins if Spain wins, I win if any other country wins. I'm tempted.
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Doc
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June 7th, 2010 at 10:24:36 AM permalink
What's the line on Spain at the book makers? I'm not a sports bettor, but this sounds like a possible opportunity to hedge bets for a guaranteed win.

Of course, my comment is based on the assumption that your private bet is at even odds.
rdw4potus
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June 7th, 2010 at 10:43:01 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

What's the line on Spain at the book makers? I'm not a sports bettor, but this sounds like a possible opportunity to hedge bets for a guaranteed win.

Of course, my comment is based on the assumption that your private bet is at even odds.



Spain is listed at 9:2, Argentina is at 24:5. If Nareed's bet is at even odds, will his coworker take more action? :-)
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Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 10:43:08 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

What's the line on Spain at the book makers? I'm not a sports bettor, but this sounds like a possible opportunity to hedge bets for a guaranteed win.

Of course, my comment is based on the assumption that your private bet is at even odds.



The newspaper ads for a local book give Spain 7 to 2, which is the same they give Brazil. Next are Germany and England at 7 to 1.

Yes, the bet is at even odds, because the other guy didn't ask for odds and I'm not about to offer any ;)
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Roghaltz
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June 7th, 2010 at 11:12:35 AM permalink
You can get Spain at +400 on Matchbook (4:1). I would bet him as much as he will take and then it lay it off (if you want, as someone suggested).

I don't believe there is anything to that list. The list is made up of perennial soccer powers, so its not surprising they win the WC. It's a small sample.
odiousgambit
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June 7th, 2010 at 11:13:23 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

I'm tempted.



Take that bet sir! In sports betting, generally speaking, you 'Take the Field' over an individual team, which is exactly what you might find in private betting. Notoriously Tiger Woods has made that a little less certain in golf, or at least in his heyday.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DJTeddyBear
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June 7th, 2010 at 11:29:34 AM permalink
When in Vegas, for shits and giggles, I'll throw $5 bets on my hometown teams for some futures games.

Other than that I don't follow or bet on sports.

But I do have my opinions.



Does the underdog try harder?
Or accept defeat before the game begins?

Does the favorite expect to win and therefore not give 100%?
Or play with confidence?

Does the support of the fans help the home team?
Or make it harder because they have to live up to the spectator's expectations?

Did either coach give a particularly inspiring lockerroom pep talk?


Based on all these things, it is impossible to answer a simple question such as "Do Sport Teams Have Memories?"




HOWEVER...
Quote: Nareed

He offered me a bet, he wins if Spain wins, I win if any other country wins. I'm tempted.

He's rolling the dice - once - and if his number comes up, he wins, any other number you win? And even money?

Hell, I'd take that bet any day of the week, even if the number he picks is 7!
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Wizard
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June 7th, 2010 at 2:14:40 PM permalink
I think you could look at any single sport and find the probability of the home team winning is significantly over 50%. I'm not sure if it is not wanting to let down the home fans, and thus trying harder, or more tangible benefits of playing at home, like knowing the field, and the fans being noisy or quiet according at the right times. Probably some combination. I find in baseball the odds are better betting on home teams, especially home underdogs. I find the odds about the same on home and away teams in football and basketball, all other things being equal.
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odiousgambit
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June 7th, 2010 at 3:49:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think you could look at any single sport and find the probability of the home team winning is significantly over 50%.



But you don't figure that for a field of 32, do you? [I think that is correct at the moment]. I would sure take that bet for even money.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 4:08:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I find the odds about the same on home and away teams in football and basketball, all other things being equal.



I should think the home field advantage for football would be huge. On the other hand, with so few games per season, it would be hard to find statistical significance.

One factor in playing at home is travel. away teams travel any time from the day before the game to a few days prior. Travel sometimes takes a toll on people, especially if they skip time zones (one reason the NFL realigned teams recently).

As to the home team in the World Cup, well, it depends on the team. Countries like Mexico, South Africa, the US, Japan, Korea, to name a few recent hosts, have as much chance to win as they have of reaching the Moon by flapping their arms.

There are a number of promotions ongoing in Mexico which provides reabtes depending on how the Mexican team does. Walmart will give you a 100% rebate on all HDTVs if Mexico reaches the semi-final round. Very few poeple have opted for that promotion.
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am19psu
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June 7th, 2010 at 4:16:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think you could look at any single sport and find the probability of the home team winning is significantly over 50%. I'm not sure if it is not wanting to let down the home fans, and thus trying harder, or more tangible benefits of playing at home, like knowing the field, and the fans being noisy or quiet according at the right times. Probably some combination. I find in baseball the odds are better betting on home teams, especially home underdogs. I find the odds about the same on home and away teams in football and basketball, all other things being equal.



Generally, home teams get about an extra 20-25 cents on their moneylines in baseball, football gives 3-3.5 points, and basketball gives 3.5-4 points.
slyther
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June 7th, 2010 at 4:16:41 PM permalink
I would take that bet... The World Cup tournament is a minefield where the result in many matches comes down to penalties or a referee decision.

I saw Spain at 4/1 on Bodog yesterday.

Travel doesn't matter as much for the World Cup as the teams are in South Africa for a couple weeks ahead of the tournament.
Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 4:52:54 PM permalink
I stipulate travel doesn't matter for the World Cup.

Regarding football, there's a very strong belief that cold weather teams have a big advantage when playing home against warm weather teams. One statistic to test is Miami vs New England, if anyone's interested. The weather difference is extreme, and they play twice a year.

Pundits ahve designated Heinz Field in pittsburgh as being murder on kickers. Supposedly the Steelers0 kicker is used to the odd condition and he has no trouble.

There are rumors and legends about other stadiums, too.
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dwheatley
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June 7th, 2010 at 6:13:04 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Regarding football, there's a very strong belief that cold weather teams have a big advantage when playing home against warm weather teams.



Team Canada has only qualified for the World Cup once, in 1986. They were actually the CONCACAF champs that year, since Mexico didn't have to qualify as hosts.

How did Canada qualify? They invited Honduras up to Newfoundland for the 2nd leg of the home & away. The Honduran team was wearing mitts and toques.

:)
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odiousgambit
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June 7th, 2010 at 6:52:35 PM permalink
you havent told us if you are taking that bet!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 7:09:56 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

you havent told us if you are taking that bet!



Sorry. I did take it. it's for one hundred pesos, which should be about less than US $8.

I was worried the co-worker would insist on odds, but he didn't. If he had, well, he said "I'm picking one team, and you're pretty much picking the other 31. You have a 31% higher chance of wining." :)
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FinsRule
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June 8th, 2010 at 5:19:34 AM permalink
If Spain is 4-1, that means they have a 20% chance of winning. Of course, listed odds aren't true odds, or the casinos wouldn't make any money. Figuring 20% of that 20% is "juice", I'd say the public believes Spain has about a 16% chance of winning. Meaning you have an 84% chance of winning. Meaning you have about a 68% higher chance of winning.

If a casino were to offer a bet like that, we would be outraged!
Nareed
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June 8th, 2010 at 7:21:23 AM permalink
Most people don't really understand percentages or odds. Combine the two and it's a nuclear bomb of ignorance and confussion.
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EnvyBonus
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June 8th, 2010 at 8:18:01 PM permalink
Quote: Roghaltz


I don't believe there is anything to that list. The list is made up of perennial soccer powers, so its not surprising they win the WC. It's a small sample.



I agree. Even though you admittedly picked an arbitrary starting point, you listed every country that has ever won a World Cup tournament except Uruguay.
Nareed
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June 9th, 2010 at 7:04:07 AM permalink
Quote: EnvyBonus

I agree. Even though you admittedly picked an arbitrary starting point, you listed every country that has ever won a World Cup tournament except Uruguay.



Well, I looked at the full list and the pattern starts to set in early. Here:

1930 Uruguay (host)
1934 Italy (host)
1938 Italy (previous champion)
1950 Uruguay (previous champion)
1954 Germany (neither host nor previous champion)
1958 Brazil (neither host nor previous champion)
1962 Brazil (previous champion)
1966 England (host)
1970 Brazil (previous champion)
1974 Germany (previous champion and host)
1978 Argentina (host)
1982 Italy (previous champion)
1986 Argentina (previous champion)
1990 Germany (previous champion)
1994 Brazil (previous champion)
1998 France (host)
2002 Brazil (previous champion)
2006 Italy (previous champion)

Those are all the World Cups ever played. Only twice the winner was neither host nor a previous winner. And the last time that happened was 52 years ago. I say that's a pattern.

We cana rgue that there are eras to the World Cup. Indeed there are. The first ones were by invitation, rather than through regional elimination rounds. Travel across the world in the 1930s was much different from that in the 1950s. But the champion teams remain quite constant in every era.

BTW, would you believe the United States took third place in 1930?
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Nareed
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June 17th, 2010 at 6:48:21 AM permalink
Yesterday Spain lost to Switzerland 1-0. And suddenly my coworker claims we never really made the bet!

Last time I ever bet against him.
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odiousgambit
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June 17th, 2010 at 6:51:24 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Yesterday Spain lost to Switzerland 1-0. And suddenly my coworker claims we never really made the bet!

Last time I ever bet against him.



I was thinking of your bet when I saw that yesterday.

you'll have to read him the Wizard's 10 commandments. Print em up maybe and lay them on his desk. He can't escape I wouldnt think, and would regret the torture I would be giving him.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Nareed
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June 17th, 2010 at 9:17:05 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I was thinking of your bet when I saw that yesterday.



I hoped Spain would win. That way I'd ahve offered to raise the stakes. So maybe it all worked out for the best.

Quote:

you'll have to read him the Wizard's 10 commandments. Print em up maybe and lay them on his desk. He can't escape I wouldnt think, and would regret the torture I would be giving him.



Woulnd't do any good. This guy makes up reality as he goes along.

I suppose I could amke sure ther eare witnesses next time we amke a bet, and to write it down and sign the paper. But what for? If he weasles out of a small bet at the first sign of trouble, he's very unlikely to ever pay anyway.
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DJTeddyBear
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June 17th, 2010 at 9:26:50 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

...Woulnd't do any good. This guy makes up reality as he goes along.

Wait a sec...

You knew that, and you didn't get the bet on paper?
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Nareed
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June 17th, 2010 at 9:37:20 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Wait a sec...

You knew that, and you didn't get the bet on paper?



We all make mistakes.
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DJTeddyBear
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July 13th, 2010 at 1:09:52 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Yesterday Spain lost to Switzerland 1-0. And suddenly my coworker claims we never really made the bet!

Last time I ever bet against him.

Hmmmm.....


Spain lost their first game but ended up winning the whole thing.


Seems like you may have dodged a bullet here!
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
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