Can a modern college football game end in a tie?
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September 11th, 2014 at 4:15:57 PM
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I'm working on a new page about betting college football. In looking at the margin of victory distribution, I noticed quite a few ties before 1996, which were before overtime rules were put into effect.
However, in my data it shows eight games that ended in a tie since 1996. This data is rather dirty. I've spent a lot of time cleaning it. A typical problem was a point spread of -100 or the over/under is a negative number (probably meant to be the spread).
It would seem from the rules that ties are not impossible in college football. However, what if a tornado warning was issued or some other weather emergency where they had to stop the game, and it happened to be tied at the time and was already in overtime.
However, in my data it shows eight games that ended in a tie since 1996. This data is rather dirty. I've spent a lot of time cleaning it. A typical problem was a point spread of -100 or the over/under is a negative number (probably meant to be the spread).
It would seem from the rules that ties are not impossible in college football. However, what if a tornado warning was issued or some other weather emergency where they had to stop the game, and it happened to be tied at the time and was already in overtime.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 11th, 2014 at 4:32:26 PM
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Here are examples of games my data show to have ended in a tie:
Nov 28, 2009
North Carolina vs. North Carolina State
Score: 27-27
Dec. 28, 2010
West Virginia vs. North Carolina State (Again? What are the odds?)
Score: 7-7
Sep. 11, 2013
Northern Arizona vs. Arizona
Score: 10-10
The two low scoring games makes me suspect the game was called early, probably due to weather. Maybe the Arizona game was called due to flash flooding, and September is the time for that.
Edit: As I look at the data, those two low-scoring games did go the full hour in regulation play.
Nov 28, 2009
North Carolina vs. North Carolina State
Score: 27-27
Dec. 28, 2010
West Virginia vs. North Carolina State (Again? What are the odds?)
Score: 7-7
Sep. 11, 2013
Northern Arizona vs. Arizona
Score: 10-10
The two low scoring games makes me suspect the game was called early, probably due to weather. Maybe the Arizona game was called due to flash flooding, and September is the time for that.
Edit: As I look at the data, those two low-scoring games did go the full hour in regulation play.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 11th, 2014 at 4:33:17 PM
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Yes, it can.
Quote: NCAA Football Rule 3-3-3-dIf a game is suspended under Rules 3-3-3-a and b after four periods of play and cannot be resumed, the game shall be ruled a tie. The final score shall be the score at the end of the last completed period. (Note: If a winner must be determined in a conference playoff game, conference policy shall determine when and where the game will be resumed.)
September 11th, 2014 at 4:41:27 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuy
Yes, it can.Quote: NCAA Football Rule 3-3-3-dIf a game is suspended under Rules 3-3-3-a and b after four periods of play and cannot be resumed, the game shall be ruled a tie. The final score shall be the score at the end of the last completed period. (Note: If a winner must be determined in a conference playoff game, conference policy shall determine when and where the game will be resumed.)
Thanks. Under what kind of scenario would play not be able to be resumed?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 11th, 2014 at 4:52:29 PM
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The data you use may be messed upQuote: WizardSep. 11, 2013
Northern Arizona vs. Arizona
Score: 10-10
I have friends who went to UA and they slaughtered their opponents for the first few games last year I remember well.
I only went to UCI
just look up that game that was actually played on 8/30/2013 by ESPN
Go Cats!
(remember Turkey week last year)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 11th, 2014 at 5:15:27 PM
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This from NC site :
1 2 3 4 Total
North Carolina 3 21 3 0 27
North Carolina State 0 14 7 7 28
1 2 3 4 Total
North Carolina 3 21 3 0 27
North Carolina State 0 14 7 7 28
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
September 11th, 2014 at 5:18:05 PM
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2010 Dec 28, 2010 Tue North Carolina State 23 West Virginia 7 48,962 QB Russell Wilson (North Carolina State) Champs Sports
Cirripted data ?
Cirripted data ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
September 11th, 2014 at 5:21:32 PM
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Best sports headline ever
Harvard Beats Yale 29-29.
Harvard scores 16 points in the last 42 seconds to get the tie :-)
Harvard Beats Yale 29-29.
Harvard scores 16 points in the last 42 seconds to get the tie :-)
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
September 11th, 2014 at 5:24:39 PM
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August 30 7:00 PM Northern Arizona* Arizona Stadium • Tucson, AZ P12N W 35–0 53,793
August 30 8:00 PM at Arizona* #18 Arizona Stadium • Tucson, AZ P12N L 0–35 53,793
Plus September 11th was a WEDNESDAY !
August 30 8:00 PM at Arizona* #18 Arizona Stadium • Tucson, AZ P12N L 0–35 53,793
Plus September 11th was a WEDNESDAY !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
September 11th, 2014 at 5:29:32 PM
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Dang! I guess it is bad data then.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 11th, 2014 at 5:35:29 PM
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maybe the years are wrong but the teams and scores are rightQuote: WizardDang! I guess it is bad data then.
any one that is a Pac-12 fan remembers Arizona killing the Ducks last year
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 11th, 2014 at 5:39:26 PM
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But this might be a tie later this season :
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/florida-gators/swamp-things-blog/os-lightning-delays-gators-opener-20140830,0,6979285.post
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/florida-gators/swamp-things-blog/os-lightning-delays-gators-opener-20140830,0,6979285.post
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
September 11th, 2014 at 6:21:05 PM
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Quote: WizardThanks. Under what kind of scenario would play not be able to be resumed?
For example, the game is stopped because of lightning, and a major storm goes through the area and does too much damage to the field to get the game finished any time soon. Another possibility; the game is at Cal, and the Hayward Fault chooses that moment to open up...
Your response reminds me of what happened at the NCAA 1989 Men's Soccer Championship. Santa Clara and Virginia were tied after regulation, after 30 minutes of overtime, and after 30 minutes of sudden death. The plan was to go to penalty kicks, but the field did not have lights and it was too dark - and Virginia had to leave the next day as it was finals week, so the championship committee decided to declare the game a tie and give championship (well, co-championship) trophies to both schools.
Your response reminds me of what happened at the NCAA 1989 Men's Soccer Championship. Santa Clara and Virginia were tied after regulation, after 30 minutes of overtime, and after 30 minutes of sudden death. The plan was to go to penalty kicks, but the field did not have lights and it was too dark - and Virginia had to leave the next day as it was finals week, so the championship committee decided to declare the game a tie and give championship (well, co-championship) trophies to both schools.
September 11th, 2014 at 11:50:58 PM
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Quote: mustangsallymaybe the years are wrong but the teams and scores are right
Are you saying that perhaps I had the dates wrong, but where were college ties after 2006? Can anybody give a good example, including the date?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 12th, 2014 at 10:24:51 AM
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check out this article. The one interesting tie was 1994 Florida vs FSU. The game was tied and they agreed to just end the game and settle it in the bowl game.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?id=5334960
ETA: I guess that does not help you since they are all pre 1996. I still find the above game weird.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?id=5334960
ETA: I guess that does not help you since they are all pre 1996. I still find the above game weird.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
September 12th, 2014 at 12:12:50 PM
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noQuote: WizardAre you saying that perhaps I had the dates wrong,
your data did
how it got that way I no knows
even wikipedia has the pac 12 showing a 6-6 win
in week 1
August 30 2012
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 12th, 2014 at 12:22:45 PM
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Quote: mustangsallyeven wikipedia has the pac 12 showing a 6-6 win
in week 1
August 30 2012
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State
I can't speak for the rest of the data, but it was easy to find some clarification on this questionable report: a typo.
From the Arizona State University athletics website of archives, I found this page, where the write up of the game begins with:
Quote:The Sun Devils won their season opener against the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 63-6 under new headcoach Todd Graham Thursday night.
September 12th, 2014 at 12:37:51 PM
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More archived info:
As for the November 28, 2009 game between NC State and UNC, the NC State site has this report that says the score was 28-27 in favor of NCSU (not a 27-27 tie as reported in the Wizard's data). They also reported that the December 28, 2010 game vs. West Virginia was a 23-7 NCSU victory (not a 7-7 tie as reported in the Wizard's data).
This seems to suggest that the data set is not reliable but that you have a reasonable chance of finding the truth about any specific result that you want to look into.
As for the November 28, 2009 game between NC State and UNC, the NC State site has this report that says the score was 28-27 in favor of NCSU (not a 27-27 tie as reported in the Wizard's data). They also reported that the December 28, 2010 game vs. West Virginia was a 23-7 NCSU victory (not a 7-7 tie as reported in the Wizard's data).
This seems to suggest that the data set is not reliable but that you have a reasonable chance of finding the truth about any specific result that you want to look into.
September 12th, 2014 at 12:42:27 PM
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yes exactly and I found that in about 10 seconds of searchingQuote: DocI can't speak for the rest of the data, but it was easy to find some clarification on this questionable report: a typo.
point is, the Wizard is using data that may contain lots and lots of errors not caused by him
maybe he paid for the data too
ouch
what does that do to the work he does using that data?
I guess that is why he says this at times
"I felt the data was a bit rough, so please take my analysis below with a grain of salt"
I would ask the Wizard about the data he uses,
How rough is rough on my baby soft skin?
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 12th, 2014 at 3:19:37 PM
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Thanks for all the comments. I paid $100 to Davler Sports for the data in question that goes back to 1983. I chopped out everything before 1996, when overtime rules were added, preventing ties. I then chopped out games that had obviously ridiculous data in the spread and over/under, for example a spread of -100 was common or an over/under line that was negative. I then chopped out games where the total of the individual quarters was less than the final scores. After this discussion, I chopped out any game that showed a tie. There are still 12,231 games in the data. I tend to think that the vast majority of games are good. It gets to the touchy issue of what is better -- bad data or no data.
If anybody else knows of a good source of college football data in database form, let me know.
If anybody else knows of a good source of college football data in database form, let me know.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 12th, 2014 at 5:09:23 PM
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Quote: WizardIt gets to the touchy issue of what is better -- bad data or no data.
Now if you wanted data to help analyze and promote a betting "system", then you could simply do as most such people do and make up your own data. Less stress; more sales!
September 12th, 2014 at 6:11:50 PM
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Quote: WizardThanks for all the comments. I paid $100 to Davler Sports for the data in question that goes back to 1983. I chopped out everything before 1996, when overtime rules were added, preventing ties. I then chopped out games that had obviously ridiculous data in the spread and over/under, for example a spread of -100 was common or an over/under line that was negative. I then chopped out games where the total of the individual quarters was less than the final scores. After this discussion, I chopped out any game that showed a tie. There are still 12,231 games in the data. I tend to think that the vast majority of games are good. It gets to the touchy issue of what is better -- bad data or no data.
If anybody else knows of a good source of college football data in database form, let me know.
Here's a source in fixed column form (click on a year).
The same site also lists the games by team, with color codes to indicate unconfirmed results.
