Quote: EdCollins...Note that Ayecarumba has two opposings pick. (Packers and Vikings) As I recall, that's graded as a loss for each. Mission, please confirm those picks, and the penalty.
My bad, the second entry was supposed to be the over, but I got distracted and didn't check it before sending.
Quote: EdCollinsJohn, they were posted last night. The link is in Mission's post immediately above yours.
Note that Ayecarumba has two opposings pick. (Packers and Vikings) As I recall, that's graded as a loss for each. Mission, please confirm those picks, and the penalty.
It would be graded as one loss, I believe.
Quote: EdCollins
Thanks for finding that. (I was initially looking for it but then ran out of time.)
That's what I vaguely remember... a loss for both picks.
The key there, though, is doey-don't record protection. I can't imagine why Ayecarumba would deliberately make off-setting picks to protect a losing record when he is not even halfway up the leader board. I would still suggest one loss.
EDIT: In fact, I'll have to make an official Rule for this next year. There are so many unforeseen complications with the Rules...lol
Quote: Mission146The key there, though, is doey-don't record protection. I can't imagine why Ayecarumba would deliberately make off-setting picks to protect a losing record when he is not even halfway up the leader board. I would still suggest one loss.
EDIT: In fact, I'll have to make an official Rule for this next year. There are so many unforeseen complications with the Rules...lol
Acknowledged. One loss.
Quote: EdCollinsAcknowledged. One loss.
Wait, just to be clear...
As it is, those picks went 1-1. (Naturally... one won and one lost. So it was already one loss.)
So is it 1-1... just leave the double-pick alone with no modification...
... or is it a record 0-1 for the two picks. (Meaning, the winning pick is thrown out.)
6-0: Ten2Win
5-1: YouCanBetOnThat, MWalz9, JohnZimbo
4-1: Wizard
4-2: Miplet, Genwyzgy
3-2: Paradigm, Mission146, JW17
3-3: StrictlyAP, JML24
2-3: Terapined, Beardgoat
2-4: Wudged, SteeldCo, Sodawater, RDW4Potus, KMumf
1-5: Ayecarumba, Aluisio, 10Dollarbri
Regular Picks: 49-45
Confidence Picks: 8-8
Current Standings (correction noted and edited):
Name | Wins | Losses | % | Owes |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wizard | 43 | 17 | 71.67% | - |
VCUSkyhawk (out - 3 byes) | 16 | 8 | 66.67% | $5.00 |
JohnZimbo | 39 | 26 | 60.00% | $11.67 |
Buzzard (out - withdrew) | 14 | 10 | 58.33% | $13.33 |
Steeldco | 35 | 25 | 58.33% | $13.33 |
Wudged | 41 | 30 | 57.75% | $13.92 |
MWalz9 | 37 | 28 | 56.92% | $14.74 |
StrictlyAP | 40 | 31 | 56.34% | $15.33 |
Terapined | 30 | 24 | 55.56% | $16.11 |
EdCollins | 33 | 27 | 55.00% | $16.67 |
Paradigm | 32 | 27 | 54.24% | $17.43 |
YouCanBetOnThat | 30 | 28 | 51.72% | $19.94 |
Aluisio | 36 | 34 | 51.43% | $20.24 |
Genwyzgy | 30 | 30 | 50.00% | $21.67 |
SodaWater | 33 | 33 | 50.00% | $21.67 |
Ten2Win | 33 | 33 | 50.00% | $21.67 |
RDW4Potus | 31 | 32 | 49.21% | $22.46 |
JW17 | 29 | 31 | 48.33% | $23.33 |
KMUMF | 26 | 30 | 46.43% | $25.24 |
Mission146 | 26 | 30 | 46.43% | $25.00 |
TGarrettCPA | 30 | 36 | 45.45% | $26.21 |
AyeCarumba | 31 | 38 | 44.93% | $26.74 |
Beardgoat | 28 | 36 | 43.75% | $27.92 |
Malaru (out - 3 byes) | 17 | 22 | 43.59% | $25.00 |
Miplet | 26 | 34 | 43.33% | $28.33 |
10DollarBri | 28 | 37 | 43.08% | $28.59 |
JML24 | 25 | 36 | 40.98% | $30.68 |
Vendman1 (out - 3 byes) | 15 | 24 | 38.46% | $25.00 |
BeachBumBabs (out - withdrew) | 17 | 29 | 36.96% | $25.00 |
GWAE (out - withdrew) | 13 | 27 | 32.50% | $25.00 |
Totals | 864 | 853 | 50.32% | $607.22 |
Quote: EdCollinsWeek 12 Results:
Current Standings:
Name Wins Losses % Owes Wizard 43 17 71.67% - VCUSkyhawk (out - 3 byes) 16 8 66.67% $5.00 JohnZimbo 39 26 60.00% $11.67 Buzzard (out - withdrew) 14 10 58.33% $13.33 Steeldco 35 25 58.33% $13.33 Wudged 41 30 57.75% $13.92 MWalz9 37 28 56.92% $14.74 StrictlyAP 40 31 56.34% $15.33 Terapined 30 24 55.56% $16.11 EdCollins 33 27 55.00% $16.67 Paradigm 32 27 54.24% $17.43 YouCanBetOnThat 30 28 51.72% $19.94 Aluisio 36 34 51.43% $20.24 Genwyzgy 30 30 50.00% $21.67 SodaWater 33 33 50.00% $21.67 Ten2Win 33 33 50.00% $21.67 RDW4Potus 31 32 49.21% $22.46 JW17 29 31 48.33% $23.33 KMUMF 26 30 46.43% $25.24 Mission146 26 30 46.43% $25.00 TGarrettCPA 30 36 45.45% $26.21 AyeCarumba 31 39 44.29% $27.38 Beardgoat 28 36 43.75% $27.92 Malaru (out - 3 byes) 17 22 43.59% $28.08 Miplet 26 34 43.33% $28.33 10DollarBri 28 37 43.08% $28.59 JML24 25 36 40.98% $30.68 Vendman1 (out - 3 byes) 15 24 38.46% $33.21 BeachBumBabs (out - withdrew) 17 29 36.96% $25.00 GWAE (out - withdrew) 13 27 32.50% $25.00 Totals 864 854 50.29% $619.14
Quote: EdCollinsWeek 12 Results:
6-0: Ten2Win
5-1: YouCanBetOnThat, MWalz9, JohnZimbo
4-1: Wizard
4-2: Miplet, Genwyzgy
3-2: Paradigm, Mission146, JW17
3-3: StrictlyAP, JML24
2-3: Terapined, Beardgoat
2-4: Wudged, SteeldCo, Sodawater, RDW4Potus, KMumf
1-5: Aluisio, 10Dollarbri
1-6: Ayecarumba
Regular Picks: 49-44
Confidence Picks: 8-9
Current Standings:
Name Wins Losses % Owes Wizard 43 17 71.67% - VCUSkyhawk (out - 3 byes) 16 8 66.67% $5.00 JohnZimbo 39 26 60.00% $11.67 Buzzard (out - withdrew) 14 10 58.33% $13.33 Steeldco 35 25 58.33% $13.33 Wudged 41 30 57.75% $13.92 MWalz9 37 28 56.92% $14.74 StrictlyAP 40 31 56.34% $15.33 Terapined 30 24 55.56% $16.11 EdCollins 33 27 55.00% $16.67 Paradigm 32 27 54.24% $17.43 YouCanBetOnThat 30 28 51.72% $19.94 Aluisio 36 34 51.43% $20.24 Genwyzgy 30 30 50.00% $21.67 SodaWater 33 33 50.00% $21.67 Ten2Win 33 33 50.00% $21.67 RDW4Potus 31 32 49.21% $22.46 JW17 29 31 48.33% $23.33 KMUMF 26 30 46.43% $25.24 Mission146 26 30 46.43% $25.00 TGarrettCPA 30 36 45.45% $26.21 AyeCarumba 31 39 44.29% $27.38 Beardgoat 28 36 43.75% $27.92 Malaru (out - 3 byes) 17 22 43.59% $28.08 Miplet 26 34 43.33% $28.33 10DollarBri 28 37 43.08% $28.59 JML24 25 36 40.98% $30.68 Vendman1 (out - 3 byes) 15 24 38.46% $33.21 BeachBumBabs (out - withdrew) 17 29 36.96% $25.00 GWAE (out - withdrew) 13 27 32.50% $25.00 Totals 864 854 50.29% $619.14
Ed- I am willing to take a loss for both picks, but do I take a penalty for the week too? I have a total of seven decisions this week in the report. hehe
Sorry for gumming everything up.
Quote: sodawaterShouldn’t VCUSkyhawk, Buzzard, Malaru, and Vendman1 all be listed as owing $25.00, since they forfeited or withdrew before week 10?
I don't know. Maybe. Possibly. I don't know what the rule is in that.
Quote: Mission1462.) In the event that you forfeit the game, you will automatically owe the sum of $25 if you forfeit prior to Week 10. If you forfeit after Week 10, then you will owe the greater of $25 or $0.10 for every one-hundredth percentage point you are away from the winner.
Ah, there it is. Okay, I will update the chart again tonight, for the players that dropped out early, when I get home.
Quote: EdCollinsQuote: Mission1462.) In the event that you forfeit the game, you will automatically owe the sum of $25 if you forfeit prior to Week 10. If you forfeit after Week 10, then you will owe the greater of $25 or $0.10 for every one-hundredth percentage point you are away from the winner.
Ah, there it is. Okay, I will update the chart again tonight, for the players that dropped out early, when I get home.
I recall that folks could still play, but can't win?? Is that different than officially forfeiting?
In any case, aren't these questions for Mission rather than Ed?
Quote: AyecarumbaIn any case, aren't these questions for Mission rather than Ed?
Yes!! Thank you.
Quote: AyecarumbaQuote: EdCollinsQuote: Mission1462.) In the event that you forfeit the game, you will automatically owe the sum of $25 if you forfeit prior to Week 10. If you forfeit after Week 10, then you will owe the greater of $25 or $0.10 for every one-hundredth percentage point you are away from the winner.
Ah, there it is. Okay, I will update the chart again tonight, for the players that dropped out early, when I get home.
I recall that folks could still play, but can't win?? Is that different than officially forfeiting?
In any case, aren't these questions for Mission rather than Ed?
If that's the rule, it makes no sense.
If that were the case, it would have been right for me to stop making picks when I hit around 60% to minimize my losses.
Your humble lame ass handicapper.
Vendman1
Quote: sodawaterImagine how much money you could have made the last two years simply betting the Wizard's picks...Hope he has been at least.
Yep......and I've been relying on his picks to go to the bank. The record when one of my picks matches his, this year, is 16-4. 80% I can live with :-)
The Week 13 Lines have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/3/#post413119
The Week 13 Picks have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/3/#post413610
Bastard!
5-0: Wizard
5-1: 10Dollarbri
4-2: YouCanBetOnThat, Paradigm, Johnzimbo
3-2: Terapined, JML24, EdCollins
3-3: Steeldco, Miplet, JW17
2-3: Beardgoat
2-4: StrictlyAP, Sodawater, MWalz9, KMumf, Aluisio
1-4: Mission146
1-5: Wudged, Ten2Win
0-5: Genwyzgy
Regular Picks: 43-48
Confidence Picks: 6-8
Current Standings
Name | Wins | Losses | % | Owes |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wizard | 48 | 17 | 73.85% | - |
VCUSkyhawk (out - 3 byes) | 16 | 8 | 66.67% | $7.18 |
JohnZimbo | 43 | 28 | 60.56% | $13.28 |
Buzzard (out - withdrew) | 14 | 10 | 58.33% | $15.51 |
Steeldco | 38 | 28 | 57.58% | $16.27 |
Terapined | 33 | 26 | 55.93% | $17.91 |
EdCollins | 36 | 29 | 55.38% | $18.46 |
Paradigm | 36 | 29 | 55.38% | $18.46 |
MWalz9 | 39 | 32 | 54.93% | $18.92 |
StrictlyAP | 42 | 35 | 54.55% | $19.30 |
Wudged | 42 | 35 | 54.55% | $19.30 |
YouCanBetOnThat | 34 | 30 | 53.13% | $20.72 |
Aluisio | 38 | 38 | 50.00% | $23.85 |
RDW4Potus | 31 | 32 | 49.21% | $24.64 |
SodaWater | 35 | 37 | 48.61% | $25.24 |
JW17 | 32 | 34 | 48.48% | $25.36 |
Ten2Win | 34 | 38 | 47.22% | $26.62 |
10DollarBri | 33 | 38 | 46.48% | $27.37 |
Genwyzgy | 30 | 35 | 46.15% | $27.69 |
TGarrettCPA | 30 | 36 | 45.45% | $28.39 |
KMUMF | 28 | 34 | 45.16% | $28.68 |
AyeCarumba | 31 | 38 | 44.93% | $28.92 |
Mission146 | 27 | 34 | 44.26% | $25.00 |
Miplet | 29 | 37 | 43.94% | $29.91 |
Malaru (out - 3 byes) | 17 | 22 | 43.59% | $25.00 |
Beardgoat | 30 | 39 | 43.48% | $30.37 |
JML24 | 28 | 38 | 42.42% | $31.42 |
Vendman1 (out - 3 byes) | 15 | 24 | 38.46% | $25.00 |
BeachBumBabs (out - withdrew) | 17 | 29 | 36.96% | $25.00 |
GWAE (out - 3 byes) | 13 | 27 | 32.50% | $25.00 |
Totals | 919 | 917 | 50.05% | $668.78 |
Quote: jml24I hope the Wizard has been getting down some real money bets on his picks. I sure wish I was betting on them.
Nope. I don't have enough faith in myself.
The Week 14 Lines have been Posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/3/#post414726
The official thread has been updated:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/4/#post415096
Quote:Greetings!
I am leaving work shortly, so I am posting to regrettably inform everyone that the Picks will not be posted until between 8:00a-10:00a EST this morning, which is still well before kickoff.
As you are all aware, I extended the deadline for picks until 2:00a.m. today rather than the usual 23:59 on the Saturday before due to the fact that the reminder PM's were not sent out until shortly after 10:00a.m. this morning when they usually would have been sent out anywhere from 6-10 hours before that due to my not having Internet during the time I'd usually be sending those out.
I have scrolled through the PM's I have received and have determined that two active players have not yet made their Picks. I have further determined that, while it may be something of a long-shot, these two players are still mathematically in contention. Therefore, in the interest of competitive fairness, I cannot post the Picks prior to the deadline. If the players in question were not mathematically in contention, then I would obviously go ahead and post the Picks as it would not affect the final result with those players having access to the other Picks ahead of time.
I apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused.
The WEEK 14 Picks have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/4/#post415146
4th place among active players.
The sizzling Wizard and me have completely different picks this week :-)
Need 0-5 for the sizzling Wiz and 5-0 for me just to get closer to the Wiz.
5-0: Johnzimbo
5-1: Wudged
4-1: 10DollarBri
3-1: JML24
4-2: Ten2Win, JW17, AyeCarumba
3-2: YouCanBetonThat, Wizard, TGarrettCPA, Mission146, EdCollins, Beardgoat
3-3: Steeldco, MWalz9, Genwyzgy
2-2: Miplet
2-3: Terapined, KMUMF
2-4: Sodawater, Paradigm
1-5: StrictlyAP
Regular Picks: 53-39
Confidence Picks: 7-6
Current Standings
Name | Wins | Losses | % | Owes |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wizard | 51 | 19 | 72.86% | - |
VCUSkyhawk (out - 3 byes) | 16 | 8 | 66.67% | $6.19 |
JohnZimbo | 48 | 28 | 63.16% | $9.70 |
Buzzard (out - withdrew) | 14 | 10 | 58.33% | $14.52 |
Steeldco | 41 | 31 | 56.94% | $15.91 |
Wudged | 47 | 36 | 56.63% | $16.23 |
EdCollins | 39 | 31 | 55.71% | $17.14 |
Terapined | 35 | 29 | 54.69% | $18.17 |
MWalz9 | 42 | 35 | 54.55% | $18.31 |
YouCanBetOnThat | 37 | 32 | 53.62% | $19.23 |
Paradigm | 38 | 33 | 53.52% | $19.34 |
StrictlyAP | 43 | 40 | 51.81% | $21.05 |
Aluisio | 38 | 38 | 50.00% | $22.86 |
JW17 | 36 | 36 | 50.00% | $22.86 |
RDW4Potus | 31 | 32 | 49.21% | $23.65 |
Ten2Win | 38 | 40 | 48.72% | $24.14 |
10DollarBri | 37 | 39 | 48.68% | $24.17 |
SodaWater | 37 | 41 | 47.44% | $25.42 |
AyeCarumba | 35 | 40 | 46.67% | $26.19 |
Genwyzgy | 33 | 38 | 46.48% | $26.38 |
TGarrettCPA | 33 | 38 | 46.48% | $26.38 |
Mission146 | 30 | 36 | 45.45% | $25.00 |
KMUMF | 30 | 37 | 44.78% | $28.08 |
Beardgoat | 33 | 41 | 44.59% | $28.26 |
JML24 | 31 | 39 | 44.29% | $28.57 |
Miplet | 31 | 39 | 44.29% | $28.57 |
Malaru (out - 3 byes) | 17 | 22 | 43.59% | $25.00 |
Vendman1 (out - 3 byes) | 15 | 24 | 38.46% | $25.00 |
BeachBumBabs (out - withdrew) | 17 | 29 | 36.96% | $25.00 |
GWAE (out - withdrew) | 13 | 27 | 32.50% | $25.00 |
Totals | 986 | 968 | 50.46% | $636.33 |
The Week 15 Lines have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/4/#post416094
The Week 15 Picks have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/4/#post416508
He forgot or taking the bye on purpose.
I have to admit, taking a bye is the smart move. If I was in his position, would do the same.
6-0: Miplet
5-0: Johnzimbo
5-1: Wudged
4-1: RDW4Potus, 10DollarBri
3-1: YouCanBetOnThat
3-2: Paradigm, Mission146, Kmumf, JW17, EdCollins, Aluisio
3-3: Steeldco, Genwyzgy
2-2: Beardgoat, AyeCarumba
2-3: TGarrettCPA, Terapined
2-4: StrictlyAP
1-4: JML24
1-5: Sodawater
Regular Picks: 53-39
Confidence Picks: 5-3
Congrats to JohnZimbo for his impressive 10-0 record over the past two weeks and 19-3 record over the past four weeks.
Current Standings:
Name | Wins | Losses | % | Owes |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wizard | 51 | 19 | 72.86% | - |
VCUSkyhawk (out - 3 byes) | 16 | 8 | 66.67% | $6.19 |
JohnZimbo | 53 | 28 | 65.43% | $7.43 |
Wudged | 52 | 37 | 58.43% | $14.43 |
Buzzard (out - withdrew) | 14 | 10 | 58.33% | $14.52 |
Steeldco | 44 | 34 | 56.41% | $16.45 |
EdCollins | 42 | 33 | 56.00% | $16.86 |
YouCanBetOnThat | 40 | 33 | 54.79% | $18.06 |
MWalz9 | 42 | 35 | 54.55% | $18.31 |
Paradigm | 41 | 35 | 53.95% | $18.91 |
Terapined | 37 | 32 | 53.62% | $19.23 |
RDW4Potus | 35 | 33 | 51.47% | $21.39 |
JW17 | 39 | 38 | 50.65% | $22.21 |
10DollarBri | 41 | 40 | 50.62% | $22.24 |
Aluisio | 41 | 40 | 50.62% | $22.24 |
StrictlyAP | 45 | 44 | 50.56% | $22.30 |
Ten2Win | 38 | 40 | 48.72% | $24.14 |
Miplet | 37 | 39 | 48.68% | $24.17 |
AyeCarumba | 37 | 42 | 46.84% | $26.02 |
Genwyzgy | 36 | 41 | 46.75% | $26.10 |
Mission146 | 33 | 38 | 46.48% | $25.00 |
TGarrettCPA | 35 | 41 | 46.05% | $26.80 |
KMUMF | 33 | 39 | 45.83% | $27.02 |
SodaWater | 38 | 46 | 45.24% | $27.62 |
Beardgoat | 35 | 43 | 44.87% | $27.99 |
Malaru (out - 3 byes) | 17 | 22 | 43.59% | $25.00 |
JML24 | 32 | 43 | 42.67% | $30.19 |
Vendman1 (out - 3 byes) | 15 | 24 | 38.46% | $25.00 |
BeachBumBabs (out - withdrew) | 17 | 29 | 36.96% | $25.00 |
GWAE (out - withdrew) | 13 | 27 | 32.50% | $25.00 |
Totals | 1,049 | 1,013 | 50.87% | $625.82 |
I'm going to assume that Wizard will stick to his strategy of not making Confidence Picks, so at a worst possible 0-10 for the last two weeks, he'd be:
51-29 = .638
In the event JohnZimbo runs the table at a perfect 12-0, he would be:
65-28 = .698
Wizard at 5-5 would be:
56-24 = .700
Wizard at 4-6 would be:
55-25 = .6875
Wizard at 3-7 would be:
54-26 = .675
Wizard at 2-8 would be:
53-27 = .663
Wizard at 1-9 would be:
52-28 = .650
To get to .650, JohnZimbo would need to be at least 61-32 which means he'd be at .655 and would have to go 8-4 the rest of the way.
Therefore, the winning conditions are:
JohnZimbo: 7-5, Wizard: 0-10
JohnZimbo: 8-4, Wizard: 0-10 or 1-9
JohnZimbo: 9-3, Wizard: 0-10 or 1-9 or 2-8
JohnZimbo: 10-2, Wizard: 0-10 or 1-9 or 2-8 or 3-7
JohnZimbo: 11-1, Wizard 0-10, 1-9, 2-8, 3-7 or 4-6 (Wizard would actually round up to .688 at .6875 with JZ at .6881, so Wizard would owe nothing)
JohnZimbo: 12-0, Wizard 0-10 through 4-6 (Wizard would actually still win with .700 going 5-5 with JZ at .6989)
The ball is in Wizard's Court, on more appropriately, on his field. All he has to do is not have a losing record, but this could be a good setup to a Week 17 finale, let's hope they make it really interesting by not having any duplicate picks!
Quote: EdCollinsCongrats to JohnZimbo for his impressive 10-0 record over the past two weeks and 19-3 record over the past four weeks.
Thanks! I have been trying to make it close but the Wiz is just too far in front. I just need to get into his noggin, figure out which way he will pick, and go opposite.
Quote: EdCollinsWeek 15 Results:
5-0: Johnzimbo
Even better, Johnzimbo had a confidence pick on Dallas in Week 15. He should be 6-0 for the week.
Quote: Mission146This could be an interesting finish between Wizard and JohnZimbo as all other players are mathematically eliminated assuming Wizard continues not to make Confidence Picks.
What weeks did Wizard have byes?
Quote: AyecarumbaEven better, Johnzimbo had a confidence pick on Dallas in Week 15. He should be 6-0 for the week.
Johnzimbo (5-0)
Seahawks -10 (push)
Jets -2.5 (win)
Bills +4.5 (win)
Vikings +7.5 (win)
Cowboys +3.5 confidence (win)
Quote: AyecarumbaWhat weeks did Wizard have byes?
Week 1 and Week 15.
Quote: AyecarumbaEven better, Johnzimbo had a confidence pick on Dallas in Week 15. He should be 6-0 for the week.
He had a Push on Seattle.
The Week 16 Lines have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/4/#post417777
Quote: terapinedNo Wizard picks.
He forgot or taking the bye on purpose.
I have to admit, taking a bye is the smart move. If I was in his position, would do the same.
I had planned to save my second bye week for week 17, but I was deep in the mountains of New Zealand with no Internet connection, so took it early.
Congratulations to JohnZimbo for a strong showing in week 15. I'll be keeping my eye on you.
The Week 16 Picks have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/4/#post418148
If Seattle -8 covers it will likely come down to the last week. If it doesn't, I'll be feeling very confident.