Proposed NFL Handicapping Contest

I've been toying around with the idea of administering a handicapping contest for the NFL season. This would be in the spirit of the contest that Mission administered over the past couple of years in that since this is a gambling based forum, the contest should measure the handicapping skills of the participants over a season.

Here's the idea:

-Each participant will start with a bankroll or $10,000.
-Each participant can make wagers based on individual game point spread, over/under, or money line (no exotics like parley, teasers, etc.)
-There will need to be some minimum number of games selected over the season but not on a given week. I'm proposing 68 which is an average of four per week. This means if you miss or skip several weeks there isn't a penalty for doing so.
-The maximum number of bets is only constrained by the number of bets available, your bankroll, and the betting limits in place.
-The betting limits will escalate throughout the season. I'm proposing ($50-$500 for weeks 1-6, $100-$1000 for weeks 7-12, and $150-$1500 for weeks 13-17).
-If your bankroll goes below the minimum amount, you will be done for the season.
-The winner is the contestant with the largest bankroll at season end.
-I will post the contest lines/spreads at least 36 hours prior to kick-off.
-Any entries would need to be submitted at least 4 hours prior to kick-off of the first game of that day (so 9 am eastern for Sunday games).
-The exception to the above rule is that Monday night football picks must be submitted at least 4 hours prior to the first SUNDAY game. This will allow me to post all Sunday and Monday picks prior to the games on Sunday.
-I'd post a weekly scorecard that includes results from the previous week and a year to date summary.
-I will not participate, only administer

There are a number of other details that I will address if there is interest in this type of contest, I just wanted to gauge interest at this point.

As far as cost, I was thinking $25 per entry (one per person), with the winner taking all but am open to other suggestions. We would need to come to agreement how how to do the money. My suggestion is to have the losing contestants pay the winner directly through whatever arrangement they can make via PM. If this isn't agreeable, we could escrow the money, but need to find someone trustworthy to hold it. I'm more that willing, but don't know how you all feel about this. I've paid off other contest related debts to other members of this forum who can vouch for me. I know many will suggest that Mr. Shackleford could hold the money, but I'm not sure he wants to be in that position.

Thoughts, feedback, and suggestions are welcome.

Of course the Wiz can veto this idea and I will drop it if he wishes. He is not proposing, developing, administering, nor specifically endorsing this contest, and as such is not responsible for any payments (other than his own if he wishes to participate).

I personally liked the the system we used last year.
I simply pick 5 teams a week against the spread.
With the bankroll thing, its a more real world contest but I think it over complicates things and I can see myself agonizing over how much to bet on every game.

I vote old Mission system.

Not to derail this thread, but I was prompted to go to Ed Collins' site and he has indeed updated his most excellent NFL Office Pool calculator for the 2014 season.
Thanx, Ed!

Quote: terapined

I personally liked the the system we used last year.
I simply pick 5 teams a week against the spread.
With the bankroll thing, its a more real world contest but I think it over complicates things and I can see myself agonizing over how much to bet on every game.

I vote old Mission system.

Thanks for the feedback. I understand your position.

Yes, it is my intent to make it more real world, meaning that it would mimic someone's attempt to use their own money and handicapping skill to build their bankroll by wagering on games.

Quote: MidwestAP

Thanks for the feedback. I understand your position.

Yes, it is my intent to make it more real world, meaning that it would mimic someone's attempt to use their own money and handicapping skill to build their bankroll by wagering on games.

I like the idea. But why the weekly limit? Why not make the whole nut available each week?

Quote: Ayecarumba

I like the idea. But why the weekly limit? Why not make the whole nut available each week?

I'm open to that idea. My initial thought was to mandate limits in order to keep interest in the contest by preventing somebody from running away and by making a couple max bets early, then min betting the rest of the time.

I like it except I don't like winner take all.

Quote: GWAE

I like it except I don't like winner take all.

I would participate if you could bet as many or few Games as you wanted. I would like for someone to hold the money. I suggest Lem66.

Quote: MidwestAP

Thanks for the feedback. I understand your position.

Yes, it is my intent to make it more real world, meaning that it would mimic someone's attempt to use their own money and handicapping skill to build their bankroll by wagering on games.

It doesn't mimic that, though, because it's a tournament. The strategy that gives you the highest EV for the season (which would be the best real-world strategy) is very different from the strategy that gives you the best chance of winning the tournament.

It could still be fun, but, as with most tournaments, how much you bet is more important than which teams you pick (similar to a casino table games tournament)

I'd be interested in participating. The exact details of the contest mean less to mean than the challenge of beating my fellow degenerate gamblers. :)
So whatever the group decides is fine with me. I'm just grateful that someone is willing to administer it.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

It doesn't mimic that, though, because it's a tournament. The strategy that gives you the highest EV for the season (which would be the best real-world strategy) is very different from the strategy that gives you the best chance of winning the tournament.

It could still be fun, but, as with most tournaments, how much you bet is more important than which teams you pick (similar to a casino table games tournament)

Good point. I realized this wasn't true after I typed it but didn't go back to clean it up. What I should have wrote was that the intent is to allow bets (spread, o/u, and moneyline) that mimic real world sports betting. Because it's a tournament environment, tournament strategy and handicapping strategy are the attributes for success.

What vendman1 said. I'm in.

Quote: AxelWolf

I would participate if you could bet as many or few Games as you wanted. I would like for someone to hold the money. I suggest Lem66.

That's a good point, Lemieux is excluded from participating.

I think there has to be a minimum number of bets. Similar to other tournaments, there are a defined number of hands, rounds, rolls, etc.

Let 66 in, I will do the collection for you.


OH !!! I will be out because I have to impartial. :)))))

Quote: MidwestAP

That's a good point, Lemieux is excluded from participating.

I think there has to be a minimum number of bets. Similar to other tournaments, there are a defined number of hands, rounds, rolls, etc.

Well how many are you thinking? I just don't want have it where I have to make bets most of the weeks or forfeit . That's why I have yet to enter one. If so something comes up I don't want to be worried about getting my pick in.

You should use Leaguesafe for the money. Free, legal, secure.

I'm in and will go with whatever gets decided for rules, # of bets etc.

Quote: chickenman

Not to derail this thread, but I was prompted to go to Ed Collins' site and he has indeed updated his most excellent NFL Office Pool calculator for the 2014 season.
Thanx, Ed!

You're very welcome. Yep, the entire schedule has been entered.

Pro football is the only sport I follow, so I'm most likely in, no matter what the format or rules. I'm looking forward to the chance at redeeming myself for my miserable performance last year.

I'm not even sure what my format preference would be at this point. I can see advantages and disadvantages either way. However, depending upon the number of entrants, I think I would prefer a second and third place prize, rather than winner-take-all.

I do know I would prefer it if the winner's money was held in escrow, rather than rely on all losers to pay up after it's over. The regulars here I would trust to pay, but otherwise a bunch of newbies could sign up with what would be a free roll to them. They would enter knowing in advance they won't be paying if they lose.

Quote: sodawater

You should use Leaguesafe for the money. Free, legal, secure.

This looks like a great option! Check it out leaguesafe

Quote: AxelWolf

Well how many are you thinking? I just don't want have it where I have to make bets most of the weeks or forfeit . That's why I have yet to enter one. If so something comes up I don't want to be worried about getting my pick in.

I'm thinking 60 is the minimum number for the year, that averages to only 3.5 per week. Since there are up to three betting options per game, this minimum number could be met in only two weeks.

Quote: AxelWolf

someone to hold the money. I suggest Lem66.

LOL!!

It looks like we have some concerns/topics to address:

Money - I like the suggestion of using LeagueSafe as the tool to submit the entry fee and disburse the payments. There are free options for both deposits and withdrawals, and for the options that do carry a fee, the fee seems nominal. Additionally, this helps maintain anonymity for those who choose to enter.

Payouts - It was suggested more than once that there is a preference for multiple winners. So, as long as we get a minimum of ten commitments to get this thing off the ground, I propose the following

10-19 entries
1st - 65%
2nd - 35%

20-29 entries
1st - 55%
2nd - 30%
3rd - 15%

30+ entries
1st - 50%
2nd - 25%
3rd - 15%
4th - 10%

Number of selections - Minimum of 60 for the year. This only averages about 3.5 per week, a participant is able to skip/miss any number of weeks as long as the minimum number of selections are made for the season. Since each game carries three opportunities (spread, o/u, and moneyline), there are many selections available each week. In fact, someone could meet the minimum number by playing only 2 weeks. The maximum number of selections only determined by bankroll and betting limits

Betting limits - Still tbd, but will be some sort of escalating min and max

As I suggested, I think we need 10 players to make this worth it.

So far I count three commitments (Vendman1, steeldco, and JohnZimbo), and four maybe's (Ayecarumba, GWAE, AxelWolf, and EdCollins).

Who else wants in?

With the payout changes I will be in as long as I can afford the buy in.

I do not like the idea of having a minimum or maximum number of games bet. I recommend that you can bet as few or as many as you like each week with the only caveat being you may bet no more than 10% of your bankroll on any one game.

Quote: GWAE

With the payout changes I will be in as long as I can afford the buy in.

Great! Looking at a $25 entry fee, I hope this is reasonable.

Quote: DRich

I do not like the idea of having a minimum or maximum number of games bet. I recommend that you can bet as few or as many as you like each week with the only caveat being you may bet no more than 10% of your bankroll on any one game.

Well I have half of your request covered, there is no maximum. There is no min number of selections on a week to week basis, only on the season. I'm proposing a minimum to force some level of betting. This is typical with other tournament structures where a certain number of rounds/hands/rolls need to be completed. On top of that, part of the fun is reviewing and analyzing player selections. I'm open to other min selections requirements, just don't like the idea of none.

Quote: MidwestAP

Well I have half of your request covered, there is no maximum. There is no min number of selections on a week to week basis, only on the season. I'm proposing a minimum to force some level of betting. This is typical with other tournament structures where a certain number of rounds/hands/rolls need to be completed. On top of that, part of the fun is reviewing and analyzing player selections. I'm open to other min selections requirements, just don't like the idea of none.

perhaps a small min throughout and no max or forcing higher betting.

This is enough for me to join the site. I'm in, and happy to escrow my entry fee.

im in, just let me know the details

Quote: ATLiens

This is enough for me to join the site. I'm in, and happy to escrow my entry fee.

I hope you are not a recently banned member. If not then welcome to the site.

Quote: ATLiens

This is enough for me to join the site. I'm in, and happy to escrow my entry fee.

Welcome to the site! I will be drafting a complete rule set as well as escrow instructions soon. I think we now have 7 confirmed participants. I anticipate we'll get more.

Why don't you just use the Supercontest lines and general rules. Lines come out Wednesday and picks are due at 10am on Saturday. Pick 5 teams (sides only).

Quote: 1arrowheaddr

Why don't you just use the Supercontest lines and general rules. Lines come out Wednesday and picks are due at 10am on Saturday. Pick 5 teams (sides only).

I considered that, but that's essentially the same format that Mission hosted the past several years.

I'm looking to do something different by expanding the type of picks, adding flexibility to the number of selections, and allowing participants to vary the amounts. This may add some complexity that could turn people off although that isn't my intent. I look at it as a contest that favors those who can utilize sound tournament strategy (money management, bet sizing), as well as handicapping skills.

I think I chopped that contest last year with someone but cant remember who

My suggestion is we do it the same way we did the last two seasons. I tend to oppose a money-based contest because it will introduce too much volatility. At the risk of revealing my strategy, if I get behind I'll make max bets on underdogs on the money line. The winner will be determined by who got lucky with big Hail Mary bets.

We're all used to the old Mission format, so my vote is to stick with that.

Quote: Wizard

My suggestion is we do it the same way we did the last two seasons. I tend to oppose a money-based contest because it will introduce too much volatility. At the risk of revealing my strategy, if I get behind I'll make max bets on underdogs on the money line. The winner will be determined by who got lucky with big Hail Mary bets.

We're all used to the old Mission format, so my vote is to stick with that.

I totally agree with the Wiz.
Where is Mission by the way? He's been out of action here for several weeks .

Quote: Wizard

My suggestion is we do it the same way we did the last two seasons. I tend to oppose a money-based contest because it will introduce too much volatility. At the risk of revealing my strategy, if I get behind I'll make max bets on underdogs on the money line. The winner will be determined by who got lucky with big Hail Mary bets.

Yes, this was kind of my point too. This contest will be decided by who has the best betting strategy, and a lot of luck -- handicapping skill will play almost no part whatsoever.

Quote: Wizard

My suggestion is we do it the same way we did the last two seasons. I tend to oppose a money-based contest because it will introduce too much volatility. At the risk of revealing my strategy, if I get behind I'll make max bets on underdogs on the money line. The winner will be determined by who got lucky with big Hail Mary bets.

We're all used to the old Mission format, so my vote is to stick with that.

Fair enough. I was just trying to do something different that is designed to do exactly what concerns you, increase the volatility, but within a self-managed bankroll and contest betting limits. This introduces a bet size strategy that wasn't present in Mission's format in addition to the handicapping skill. I'm already in several pick em pools, both straight up winner and ATS, so I was looking to try another format.

If you want me to drop this attempt to organize through this site, just let me know.

Quote: MidwestAP

Fair enough. I was just trying to do something different that is designed to do exactly what concerns you, increase the volatility, but within a self-managed bankroll and contest betting limits. This introduces a bet size strategy that wasn't present in Mission's format in addition to the handicapping skill. I'm already in several pick em pools, both straight up winner and ATS, so I was looking to try another format.

If you want me to drop this attempt to organize through this site, just let me know.

Start a poll thread for old Mission way and your new way.
We can see how much interest in either way.

Quote: MidwestAP

but within a self-managed bankroll and contest betting limits.

The problem is that the inclusion of money line bets negates the effects of betting limits.

If you really want to do this, I think the upper limit should apply to the win amount, not the bet amount. In other words, if there is a $1000 limit, the max money line bet allowed on a +1000 underdog should be $100.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The problem is that the inclusion of money line bets negates the effects of betting limits.

If you really want to do this, I think the upper limit should apply to the win amount, not the bet amount. In other words, if there is a $1000 limit, the max money line bet allowed on a +1000 underdog should be $100.

That's a very reasonable suggestion. Cap the amount on money line bets to the level that would produce the max amount for straight bets. The converse of your example would be too allow for up to $9000 bet for a money line of -900 on a favorite if the cap on straight bets is $1000.

Just out of curiosity I looked up how many money lines the past two years produced a money line of +500 or greater. There were 9 in 2012 and 11 last year. So out of 512 regular season games the past two years, 20 of them had a money line +500 or larger. And only 2 of the 20 underdogs actually won.

Also, in that same time period, 5 games were +1000 or better and the favorite won all of these.

I don't think it will be too difficult for NFL followers to guess the team that was the underdog the most out of these 20 games.

Quote: terapined

Start a poll thread for old Mission way and your new way.
We can see how much interest in either way.

I don't doubt that the old Mission way would probably have a greater interest, it's simpler, and people are used to it. I'm not really interested in administering this type of contest, although I will participate if someone else wants to run it.

Quote: GWAE

I hope you are not a recently banned member. If not then welcome to the site.

Haha - not even close. 10+ year reader of WoO, was looking up RoR stats for online bonus a couple of weeks ago. Came across the donation thread and have always loved the old site so I gave $50. Left the page open on my phone and started reading threads at night. At what point am I officially addicted?

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The problem is that the inclusion of money line bets negates the effects of betting limits.

If you really want to do this, I think the upper limit should apply to the win amount, not the bet amount. In other words, if there is a $1000 limit, the max money line bet allowed on a +1000 underdog should be $100.

Are you going to participate?

Quote: AxelWolf

Are you going to participate?

I don't know yet. I might.

Here are the details of my proposed contest for the NFL season. I realize it's more complicated than the previous Mission contests, and that's by design. It's my intent to do something different than the common pick em pools, spread based pick em pools, suicide pools, or fantasy leagues. I've heard from seven confirmed participants (Vendman1, steeldco, JohnZimbo, GWAE, ATLiens, StrictlyAP, and BeachBumBabs), several who do not like the new format and are not interested, and a couple maybe's.

So, I want to lay out the full rules and then people can make a final decision (including the confirmed participants) if they wish to play.

Concept
Participants will submit as many (only bounded by betting limits, number of games, and bankroll) or as few (as low as zero) sports 'wagers' on NFL regular season games every week. The wagers can be in the form of a bet against a posted spread, an over/under against a posted total, or a money line bet against posted odds.

Bankroll
Each participant will start with an imaginary bankroll of $10,000. The bankroll will go up or down depending on the result of those wagers. The participants with the largest bankrolls at the end of the contest, will win as described in the Payout section below.

Wager Options

Against the Spread (ATS) - The participants will select the team and the amount they want to wager against a posted point spread. The wager amounts will be considered the amount bet and any winnings will be adjusted by the odds of that game. For instance, someone selects the Bears +4.5 for $550 at (-110), they will 'lose' $550 from their bankroll if the Bears lose by 5 or more, but will 'win' $500 toward their bankroll if the Bears win, or lose by 4 or less.

Over/Under (O/U) - The participants will select the game and the amount they want to wager against a posted total points scored between the two teams. The wager amounts will be considered the amount bet and any winnings will be adjusted by the odds of that game. For instance, someone select the Jets/Dolphins over 48 for $700 at (-115), the will 'lose' $700 from their bankroll if the combined score of the two teams is less than 48 points, will 'win' $608.70 toward their bankroll if the combined score of the two teams is greater than 48 points, or will not have any amount added to or removed from their bankroll if the combined score is exactly 48 points.

Money Line - The participants will select the team they are betting on to win the game and the amount they want to wager against posted money line odds. The wager amounts will be considered the amount bet and any winnings will be adjusted by the odds of that game. For instance, if someone select the Steelers for $1,000 at (+120), the will 'lose' $1,000 from their bankroll if the Steelers lose the game, but will 'win' $1,200 toward their bankroll if the Steelers win. In the rare event of a tie game, the bet is a push and there is not impact to the bankroll.

Note - A participant cannot bet on the opposite side of an identical wager type, even if the amount is different. For instance taking the over and the under in the same game is not allowed. In a similar vein, a participant cannot bet ATS for one team and the money line on the opposite team unless the spread is greater than a touchdown. This rule is in place to prevent participants from satisfying the minimum number of bets while at the same time, taking very little risk to their bankroll.

Betting Limits

The minimum wager will be $100.

The maximum wager will be based on a non-escalating 'win' limit of $2,000 per win. Therefore, for a normal ATS or O/U odd of -110, the betting limit would be $2,200 since that will produce a win of $2,000. For a money line wager you will need to calculate (or just ask me, I can do the calculation if you want) the amount to bet, so that the win doesn't exceed $2,000. So for example, a bet of $5,000 on a game with a money line of -500 is perfectly acceptable since it will produce a win of $1,000, but a wager of $800 on a game with a money line of +400 will not work since it will produce a win or $3,200 and therefore exceed the maximum. I will try to let you know if you have submitted a wager that exceeds the maximum win limit so you can adjust, but I cannot guarantee I will catch it. If a selection exceeds the maximum win limit, the wager will not be accepted.

Note - On a weekly basis, you may wager an aggregate amount up to but not exceeding your starting bankroll for the week. This includes ALL games for the week. So for example, if you had a winning wager on Thursday, you cannot 're-invest' those winnings on Sunday of the same week. This is for transparency sake. I will update the bankrolls once a week, and will post to the thread. Since part of the strategy is bet sizing partly based on the other's bankrolls, it should be clear how much someone else has available, and that will be the amount at the start of each week.

Number of selections
Over the course of a seventeen week season, each participant must place a minimum of 50 selections. This amounts to an average of less than 3 per week. There isn't a minimum number to be played on any given week. It actually can be accomplished in as little as two weeks if someone was so inclined. If a player doesn't fulfill the required minimum number of selections, be it because they went bust (or below the betting minimum), or they just forgot, they are ineligible to win.

Lines
I will post lines and odds for games generally no later than 36 hour before kickoff. I will post all Sunday and Monday games generally no later than 36 hours before the first Sunday game. I will not post adjusted or updated lines unless there is an obvious error. In that case, I will contact those who may have bet on the 'fouled' line, and declare it no bet.

Selection Rules
All selections should be submitted to me via PM. I will also provide participants with my email address only to be used in the case they are suspended (or worse) from WOV during the season. Selections should be sent to me no later than 1 hour before a Thursday or Saturday game, and no later than 3 hours (10 a.m. Eastern) for any of the Sunday or Monday night games. This will allow me to post all the selections before the games begin, or at the worst, shortly after. Like a bet in a sportsbook, once the wager is placed it cannot be cancelled by the participant, so please check all submissions before hitting 'send'

Entry Fee
$25 per participant, and I will accept up to two entries per person if you are so inclined. We will use LeagueSafe for collecting the entry fees and disbursing the payouts. You are welcome to check out the site, LeagueSafe

. I think it addresses the concern about putting the entry fees in escrow, there are no-cost options for submitting the entry fee as well as collecting winnings, and it preserves anonymity. I haven't registered this league yet, so please don't try to submit an entry fee for this league until I send out links to confirmed participants. All money collected will go to the prize pool, with the exception of any fees deducted by LeagueSafe (which is 3%, or $0.75 per entry for a credit card payment).

Payouts

10-19 entries
1st - 65%
2nd - 35%

20-29 entries
1st - 55%
2nd - 30%
3rd - 15%

30+ entries
1st - 50%
2nd - 25%
3rd - 15%
4th - 10%

Eligibility
This is intended to be a friendly contest among members of this site. Therefore to play, you must be a WOV member in good standing (not on the suspension list, and not a known bet welcher). We need at least 10 confirmed entires to make this work. If we don't have 10 participants by the end of the day on 8/28, I'll scrap the idea.

Results and Contest Standing
Every Tuesday morning, I will post results from the week prior, as well as a contest standing summary with updated year to date bankrolls and year to date number of selections.

Disputes
Since I will not be participating, I will act as Commissioner and try to moderate a reasonable solution to any disputes. In the event that cannot happen, the dispute will be be voted on by the contest participants. Majority rules on all issues, and I break ties if there happens to be one.

Disclaimer
The Wizard is not proposing, developing, administering, nor endorsing this contest, and as such is not responsible for resolving any disputes or making any payments. This contest can be ended at any time by the request of Mike and if so, the prize pool will be distributed equally regardless of the contest standings at the time.

Where do you plan to get the lines MidwestAP?

[edit] Please confirm the deadline for sign-ups. The post says 9/28. I think you meant 8/28

Quote: Ayecarumba

Where do you plan to get the lines MidwestAP?

I generally use vegasinsider.com to get lines. They have a consensus line which supposedly consists of the line which occurs most frequently among their list of Las Vegas and on-line sports books. In any case everybody in this contest will get a common line, which won't be updated unless there is an error in the original posting.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Where do you plan to get the lines MidwestAP?

[edit] Please confirm the deadline for sign-ups. The post says 9/28. I think you meant 8/28

Yes, I updated the date. 8/28 is the deadline for reaching the minimum number of confirmed participants. This is one week before the start of the season.

Thank you for administering it MidwestAP. It sounds like it is going to be a lot of work.

If I enter two teams with exactly the same bets, and happen to have the biggest bankroll at the end of week 17, I would get both the first and second place money, correct?

Is the "minimum to go" count, the number of total entries, or individuals?

How does the payout from LeagueSafe work with the split? It appears that a credit would be applied to a "Paypal" like account. Do you need to submit bank info to set up an account with them? Can anyone who has used them before confirm that they do not require more than your name and address to send you a check?