speedycrap
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June 14th, 2014 at 4:44:14 PM permalink
This is strange. Nobody mentions anything about world cup bets !!!!????
Let me start. Today I bet $200 on URaguy to win. Lost $240. I bet $100 for Italy to win. Leading 2-1 now.
speedycrap
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June 14th, 2014 at 4:45:37 PM permalink
85 minutes, still 2-1 Italy.
speedycrap
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June 14th, 2014 at 4:57:02 PM permalink
I just won on Italy +100. So far -$140.
Is Ivory coast better than Japan???
speedycrap
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June 14th, 2014 at 5:54:12 PM permalink
Just put $200 on Ivory Coast to win.
Paigowdan
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June 14th, 2014 at 6:46:12 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Just put $200 on Ivory Coast to win.



I was gonna bet England. Mrs. Dan had a discussion with me about that idea... and so much for that idea. Saved me.

My Heart was broken, so I found comfort in some good English soul food. This is really an awesome and robust deli style mustard, and qualifies as ESF (English Sould food). Geoff turned me onto it. Couldn't say that much about England under the heat and humidity, but I say it was a factor. Italy vs. England up north instead of in Brazil would have been different.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
sddude24
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June 14th, 2014 at 7:07:17 PM permalink
I have Argentina tomorrow and taking the draw Monday between Germany/Portugal
Switch
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June 14th, 2014 at 8:09:17 PM permalink
I've had Argentina, Chile and Ivory Coast as my outside bet, at the start of the tournament.

Glad you liked the mustard Dan :-)

Nightmare wager I've had this week was betting $150 on Webb Simpson and $100 on Martin Kaymer at 50/1 & 40/1 respectively for the US open. Kaymer is leading by 5 shots after 3 rounds. Went to check my wagers and realised that I'd accidentally backed them on Betfair for the English Open next month ... costly error I think.
Paigowdan
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June 14th, 2014 at 8:38:22 PM permalink
We've got to admit, there was a lot of heart-side betting here, if you know what it meant.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
speedycrap
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June 15th, 2014 at 5:50:27 AM permalink
Won my bet on Ivory Coast.+200.
So Far World Cup 2014 +$60.

Today: Switzerland Vs Ecuador. Is Switzerland really that good. The FIFA ranking is 6 ???? Really that good? I like South American team over European team.

France Vs Honduras. Same reason. France is not doing well lately????

Argentina Vs Bosnia. Should be easy this one.
Toes14
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June 15th, 2014 at 8:04:47 AM permalink
Speedy - Switzerland qualified first in their group win 7 wins & 3 ties in 10 games, scoring 17 goals & allowing only 6. In the 2010 World Cup, they lost close 1-0 games to traditional powers Spain & Chile, and won their other match, but didn't advance to the knockout rounds, losing on a tiebreaker. In the 2006 World Cup, they became the first team ever to not allow a goal in regulation or overtime in the tournament, losing on PK's in the first knockout round. They traditionally have a tight defense.

Ecuador is ranked 26th in the world. They limped into the tourney, finishing with 1 win, 2 ties, and 3 losses in their final 6 games of qualifying. They lost to Mexico 3-1 and tied Netherlands 1-1 in friendlies before the WC tourney started. Personally, I'd take Switzerland.

France (ranked 17th) has lost Ribery for the tourney, but Honduras (ranked 33rd) lost friendlies to Israel and Turkey prior to the WC start. France beat Norway & Paraguay in friendlies.

I like Argentina (5th) vs B&H (21st), but it should not be a cakewalk for them. B&H has played two friendlies here in St. Louis in the past several months, and won them both, the last one a couple weeks ago vs Ivory Coast. B&H won their UEFA qualification group, going 8-1-1, scoring 30 and allowing only 6 goals. I've picked B&H to finish 2nd in that group to Argentina.
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
speedycrap
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June 15th, 2014 at 8:28:51 AM permalink
Quote: Toes14

Speedy - Switzerland qualified first in their group win 7 wins & 3 ties in 10 games, scoring 17 goals & allowing only 6. In the 2010 World Cup, they lost close 1-0 games to traditional powers Spain & Chile, and won their other match, but didn't advance to the knockout rounds, losing on a tiebreaker. In the 2006 World Cup, they became the first team ever to not allow a goal in regulation or overtime in the tournament, losing on PK's in the first knockout round. They traditionally have a tight defense.

Ecuador is ranked 26th in the world. They limped into the tourney, finishing with 1 win, 2 ties, and 3 losses in their final 6 games of qualifying. They lost to Mexico 3-1 and tied Netherlands 1-1 in friendlies before the WC tourney started. Personally, I'd take Switzerland.

France (ranked 17th) has lost Ribery for the tourney, but Honduras (ranked 33rd) lost friendlies to Israel and Turkey prior to the WC start. France beat Norway & Paraguay in friendlies.

I like Argentina (5th) vs B&H (21st), but it should not be a cakewalk for them. B&H has played two friendlies here in St. Louis in the past several months, and won them both, the last one a couple weeks ago vs Ivory Coast. B&H won their UEFA qualification group, going 8-1-1, scoring 30 and allowing only 6 goals. I've picked B&H to finish 2nd in that group to Argentina.

Thanks for the info. France is not in good form I think.
speedycrap
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June 15th, 2014 at 11:20:42 AM permalink
Bet $200 on Swiss to win. +200. So far +260.

France is -1.5 goals. I am taking Honduras for $100 for $105 return.
beachbumbabs
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June 15th, 2014 at 11:37:50 AM permalink
Quote: Switch

I've had Argentina, Chile and Ivory Coast as my outside bet, at the start of the tournament.

Glad you liked the mustard Dan :-)

Nightmare wager I've had this week was betting $150 on Webb Simpson and $100 on Martin Kaymer at 50/1 & 40/1 respectively for the US open. Kaymer is leading by 5 shots after 3 rounds. Went to check my wagers and realised that I'd accidentally backed them on Betfair for the English Open next month ... costly error I think.



Not to derail, but oh, Switch, major bummer about the Kaymer bet! He's not going to blow up; in fact, he's on track to widen the lead at the moment.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Boz
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June 15th, 2014 at 12:16:46 PM permalink
I have been draws and getting my rear kicked. 2010 was full of early draws.
speedycrap
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June 15th, 2014 at 2:18:43 PM permalink
Honduras-100. So far +160,
Argentina -1.5 -125 for $100.
3 O -110. $200 for over.
terapined
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June 18th, 2014 at 6:38:59 PM permalink
Interesting article regarding World Cup betting and the Vegas Sports books taking a beating.

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/soccer/2014-06-17/world-cup-2014-betting-las-vegas-usa-ghana-result-odds-john-brooks-goal
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
Buzzard
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June 18th, 2014 at 8:27:33 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

This is strange. Nobody mentions anything about world cup bets !!!!????
Let me start. Today I bet $200 on URaguy to win. Lost $240. I bet $100 for Italy to win. Leading 2-1 now.



Not that strange. Usually betting proposition are restricted to sporting events. Thus no soccer or professional wrestling..
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
thecesspit
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June 18th, 2014 at 9:47:50 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Not that strange. Usually betting proposition are restricted to sporting events. Thus no soccer or professional wrestling..



You and Nareed can go lament soccer in the threads about how much the World Cup sucks and leave the rest of us to get some enjoyment out of it. :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
george1972
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June 19th, 2014 at 10:50:21 AM permalink
i predict a header goal from Greece today with Japan... ;)
thecesspit
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June 20th, 2014 at 11:10:50 AM permalink
I have Brazil at 3-1 to win it all. I am not so sure it was good bet having seen the first round. I am glad I didn't make any Homer bets on England, at least.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Sabretom2
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June 20th, 2014 at 11:59:40 AM permalink
Swiss and French about to get started. The Swiss are seeded 1st and are dogs to The French. Reckon this has anything to do with FIFA HQ in Switzerland?
thecesspit
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June 20th, 2014 at 12:46:31 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Swiss and French about to get started. The Swiss are seeded 1st and are dogs to The French. Recon this has anything to do with FIFA HQ in Switzerland?



Switzerland are seeded 6th in the FIFA rankings, while France is 17th. How those rankings are calculated is based on various factors.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
strictlyAP
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June 20th, 2014 at 12:58:50 PM permalink
I really want to bet the world cup I just cnt stand having a team that gets down a goal
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
Sabretom2
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June 20th, 2014 at 1:06:31 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Switzerland are seeded 6th in the FIFA rankings, while France is 17th. How those rankings are calculated is based on various factors.



Whatever. At the half, SUI-0----FRA-3. LOL
thecesspit
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June 20th, 2014 at 1:08:23 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Whatever. At the half, SUI-0----FRA-3. LOL



This doesn't surprise me... the FIFA rankings, while a way of doing the rankings aren't the best.

Plus, that's why they play the game!
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Sabretom2
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June 20th, 2014 at 1:35:16 PM permalink
Let's see if I can express it differently.
Top seed my ass.
SUI-0 FRA-5
speedycrap
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June 20th, 2014 at 7:28:07 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

Let's see if I can express it differently.
Top seed my ass.
SUI-0 FRA-5


Hahaaaaaaa.
France looks like a real deal this time.
Buzzard
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June 21st, 2014 at 7:01:34 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

You and Nareed can go lament soccer in the threads about how much the World Cup sucks and leave the rest of us to get some enjoyment out of it. :)



Yes Then you can watch paint dry as an encore.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
kenarman
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June 21st, 2014 at 7:50:34 PM permalink
I understand that a lot of people of lower intelect have trouble understanding the finer points of football (soccer). MMA is probably more to their taste.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
teddys
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June 21st, 2014 at 8:18:46 PM permalink
Quote: sddude24

crazy bets
http://espn.go.com/sports/soccer/story/_/id/11116564/2014-world-cup-lionel-messi-goal-iran-saves-bettor-more-350000

The TUSCANY took that action? I thought they were SKEEERED!

(Wait, was this the Wizard betting our donation money? :) )
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
kubikulann
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June 22nd, 2014 at 4:12:14 AM permalink
Quote: sddude24

crazy bets
<http:lionel-messi-goal-saves-bettor-more-350000>

Why crazy?
As the Wizard says, it's whether you have a good bet. If the guy (and most of us) thinks Argentina has a more than 32/35 chance of beating Iran, then his EV is positive.

Now, this rejoins the thread about the lottery: EV is not enough, you got to look at variance and skewness. For most of us, losing 350,000 is worse than 35/3 times 30,000. We don't bet like this. But if this guy earns 5,000,000, what the f. ? (Now I wonder why he would want to gain 30,000 ; but football fandom and thrill may explain).
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
sddude24
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June 22nd, 2014 at 11:18:59 AM permalink
I don't know his bankroll, but that's a lot of $ for one event and one individual. Could be a syndicate but they usually spread it around. Rule of thumb is never more than 2% of bankroll on one event.
DrawingDead
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June 22nd, 2014 at 5:24:01 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

The TUSCANY took that action? I thought they were SKEEERED!

(Wait, was this the Wizard betting our donation money? :) )



But Tuscany didn't take the action. The William Hill outlet (they have over 100 NV brick & mortar outlets mostly in dumpy little frayed-carpet joints) at Tuscany booked the bet; Tuscany doesn't actually have a book.

And I'm glad to see Mr. Wizzard creatively growing his donation fund, but he could've got a better price of around -650.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
DrawingDead
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June 22nd, 2014 at 5:35:02 PM permalink
Chile originally opened at 35/1 to win the World Cup. The LVH line was at 25/1 as recently as about 48hrs ago. I missed that number but did get in at 20/1 from William Hill shortly before I saw it had moved further to 18/1 at Wynn yesterday evening. This is a long shot, one that of course probably won't cash, but I think a live long shot with > 5% chance. Plus, they are fun to watch.

And if it should get down to Argentina vs. Chile later, that could really be a lot of fun. Of course by fun I mean a cloud of tear gas & bodies to be hauled away.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
ijks
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June 22nd, 2014 at 9:11:22 PM permalink
Currently at +$900 in the World Cup (on Bovada).

Today I had money on Algeria since South Korea had 3 yellow cards from the previous game on 3 of their best players. Expected them to play "safer" then usual. Won a nice chunk there since odds were +240.

Also bet that Algeria vs South Korea will have more then 4.5 goals. Won a nice chunk there too.

Lost money on USA vs Portugal. Thought USA was going to win.. that goal at the last 10 seconds made my jaw drop.

For tomorrow, I got money on Netherlands to win. Also, for that games' score to be over 3.5 goals. Both of them have really good offense and weak defense. I expect plenty of goals.
I put a little bit of money on Austrailia when the odds were at +900. It dropped to +600 on Bovada. Reason being is Spain is already out and I think their morale dropped significantly. It's a gamble.
Skipping Cameroon vs Brazil. Brazil will win, but the odds suck. I don't think Brazil will play hard, just good enough to win. So I would advise not to take point spread bets except a -0.5 for Brazil (the odds are still bad for that bet).
Got money on Croatia for +155 odds to win straight up. Mexico hasn't been impressive, but Croatia has. I would recommend this bet and keep an eye on number 18 Olic. He's definitely a hidden MVP. I follow soccer a lot and he's playing such a solid game here. Not a famous player, but a hidden jewel none-the-less.
Buzzard
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June 22nd, 2014 at 9:26:58 PM permalink
Quote: kenarman

I understand that a lot of people of lower intelect have trouble understanding the finer points of football (soccer). MMA is probably more to their taste.



at least i know how to spell intellect.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
DrawingDead
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June 22nd, 2014 at 10:17:08 PM permalink
On the first weekend of the World Cup I was in the book of a large Las Vegas Strip property doing what I normally do pretty much every week, which usually doesn't involve a lot of involvement in team sports. And honestly, when the match between Italy & England was on that afternoon it easily won the award for the most extreme spoiled-child type "I demand that the world must revolve around ME" douchebaggery I've seen so far this year, and I do get out a bit. But then again this weekend, at another similar property, not so much at all, and other people were able to enjoy doing the business they came for involving other things.

I like to practice spelling "United States Federal Reserve Note" whenever I can.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
kenarman
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June 23rd, 2014 at 7:18:47 AM permalink
Ah Buzz but that is the Canadian spelling. ;-)
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
DrawingDead
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June 23rd, 2014 at 5:06:13 PM permalink
In another forum where people are (or represent themselves to be) serious sports bettors there is discussion of the enhanced probability of a draw, the relative lack of incentive for scoring as opposed to defending, and the possibility of collusion, in the Germany vs. US match. Because a scoreless draw insures both will advance, benefiting both sides just as much as winning would benefit either, the game theory optimal play apparently would be for both sides to come out and wave to the crowd, then lay down for 90 minutes and take a nap.

I'm not knowlegeable enough about the sport to have an opinion on the liklihood of that, but I thought it was, uh, “interesting.”
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
Toes14
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June 23rd, 2014 at 5:37:06 PM permalink
I did some research on the US National Team's performance in the World Cup. Over the past 5 cups (dating back to 1998), they have played 17 total games in the group and knockout stages. In 8 of those games (47%), they have given up a goal in the first 15 minutes. Nine goals to be exact, and seven of those have been in the 5th minute or earlier.

Our record in those games is 0 wins, 3 ties, and 5 losses. We'd likely to better if we weren't playing behind from early in the game half the time, eh?

Maybe our team needs to warm up a little more before the game or something?
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
FinsRule
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June 23rd, 2014 at 6:08:08 PM permalink
UNDER 2.5 seems to be a lock for the US game.

Ghana / Portugal figures to have a lot of goals. But 2.5 (-170) is a lot to take.
Buzzard
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June 23rd, 2014 at 7:22:56 PM permalink
Quote: kenarman

Ah Buzz but that is the Canadian spelling. ;-)[/q

It can't be because the sentence did not end with EH !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
kubikulann
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June 24th, 2014 at 3:13:35 AM permalink
Quote: ijks

Lost money on USA vs Portugal. Thought USA was going to win.. that goal at the last 10 seconds made my jaw drop.

Talk of schizophrenia: I usually bet on the outcome I don't desire, so that I win either way (pleasure or money).

In this case,I bet for Portugal but you should have seen me shouting joy alone in front of my monitor (it was in the middle of the night here) at the second US goal... and the atrocious silence at 95th minute.......

I hope the US join the rest of the American teams to the 1/8th finals. Beautiful football !
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
MidwestAP
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June 24th, 2014 at 5:39:19 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

In another forum where people are (or represent themselves to be) serious sports bettors there is discussion of the enhanced probability of a draw, the relative lack of incentive for scoring as opposed to defending, and the possibility of collusion, in the Germany vs. US match. Because a scoreless draw insures both will advance, benefiting both sides just as much as winning would benefit either, the game theory optimal play apparently would be for both sides to come out and wave to the crowd, then lay down for 90 minutes and take a nap.

I'm not knowlegeable enough about the sport to have an opinion on the liklihood of that, but I thought it was, uh, “interesting.”



I'm considering betting the tie on this game for just the reasons you mentioned. I just looked on Bovada and of the 12 remaining matches in group play, 10 of the 12 have a draw at +250 to +300. One match is at +360 (because Honduras is such a big underdog to Switzerland). The US match is only at +185 for the draw.

This isn't surprising given there is plenty of motivation for both sides to play to a draw. I doubt there will be outright collusion, but I would think if the match gets to about the 60th minute and it's tied up, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see both sides retreat and figuratively kick the ball around the center circle.
DrawingDead
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June 24th, 2014 at 6:21:54 AM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

I'm considering betting the tie on this game for just the reasons you mentioned. I just looked on Bovada and of the 12 remaining matches in group play, 10 of the 12 have a draw at +250 to +300. One match is at +360 (because Honduras is such a big underdog to Switzerland). The US match is only at +185 for the draw.

This isn't surprising given there is plenty of motivation for both sides to play to a draw. I doubt there will be outright collusion, but I would think if the match gets to about the 60th minute and it's tied up, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see both sides retreat and figuratively kick the ball around the center circle.

That's a significantly better price than brick & mortar casinos are quoting (I guess not surprisingly). Here are some lines available locally (Las Vegas) on a draw in that match among those offering "3-way" betting, current as of yesterday: Cantor +165; LVH +170; William Hill +170; Wynn +160.

And apropos of nothing the line on my Chile wager has moved back up to 35:1, making my 20:1 ticket look rather not so sharp. But they are still a fun side to watch, so I do expect to get decent entertainment value out of it.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
MidwestAP
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June 24th, 2014 at 8:20:30 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

That's a significantly better price than brick & mortar casinos are quoting (I guess not surprisingly). Here are some lines available locally (Las Vegas) on a draw in that match among those offering "3-way" betting, current as of yesterday: Cantor +165; LVH +170; William Hill +170; Wynn +160.

And apropos of nothing the line on my Chile wager has moved back up to 35:1, making my 20:1 ticket look rather not so sharp. But they are still a fun side to watch, so I do expect to get decent entertainment value out of it.



I decided to put a relatively small amount on the draw. I was pleasantly surprised to get it at +190.
DrawingDead
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June 25th, 2014 at 5:32:17 AM permalink
Norwegian Wins Bet on Suarez World Cup Bite

Quote:

A Swedish gambling company says a punter in Norway has won 5,600 kroner ($916) on a bet that Uruguay striker Luis Suarez would bite someone during the World Cup...<MORE>...



http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/norwegian-wins-bet-suarez-world-cup-bite-24294060
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
DrawingDead
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June 25th, 2014 at 10:50:01 PM permalink
RE: US vs. Germany
Quote: DrawingDead

That's a significantly better price than brick & mortar casinos are quoting (I guess not surprisingly). Here are some lines available locally (Las Vegas) on a draw in that match among those offering "3-way" betting, current as of yesterday: Cantor +165; LVH +170; William Hill +170; Wynn +160.

Quote: MidwestAP

I decided to put a relatively small amount on the draw. I was pleasantly surprised to get it at +190.

The line on this has moved at the Las Vegas books. It is now in the +190 to +220 range from various casinos, so apparently at least the brick & mortar money has not been buying that number. But it is still a notably lower number for a draw in this than for other matches on the board.

I have nothing on it, mostly because I couldn't see how to squeeze any personal entertainment value out of cheering for: "Draw, draw, draw, just don't nobody do nuttin' dammit!"
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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Joined: Jun 13, 2014
June 26th, 2014 at 5:03:10 PM permalink
Collude better.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
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