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GWAE
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June 21st, 2014 at 6:43:36 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Nice game. You needed a little excitement.


Nope, wanted money. Would prefer 21-0 score. I stayed the course and went 3 units, plus I raised my unit to $20
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steeldco
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June 21st, 2014 at 6:46:01 AM permalink
Congrats! I'll always settle on just taking a win. The excitement in it is gravy.
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beerseason
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June 21st, 2014 at 10:47:23 AM permalink
When do you think about taking out your initial investment and just play on winnings? I started at $250 and have 660 left in my account plus I have 65 on the mariners. Do I go ahead and think about pulling 250 now? I don't necessarily need it but will be going to Vegas in July. Might wait until a little closer then take some to bet there
steeldco
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June 21st, 2014 at 10:52:01 AM permalink
Tough call. The answer is always that you do what will allow you to sleep at night without worries. It's really a personal choice.
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GWAE
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June 21st, 2014 at 11:21:52 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Tough call. The answer is always that you do what will allow you to sleep at night without worries. It's really a personal choice.



It also depends on how you are betting. As steel was asking earlier about bankroll management, that would play a part. If you are figuring a $600 bankroll and are playing $60 on today, if you take out the $250 would you still have gone $60? Me personally I am betting more aggressively than I should but I know the risks. I pulled out my original investment and are currently only playing with winnings (house money, I know I know its not really house money) and have been over betting. If steels picks cool off then I will tone it down. I had $594.24 in my account so I took out $150 and my original investment was $100. Optimal betting would probably be about $10 and aggressive would be around $25 but I have $75 on todays. If my account gets back down to $200 I will reevaluate going forward.
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steeldco
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June 21st, 2014 at 12:42:19 PM permalink
HEY! No talk about cooling off! Not Allowed!
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steeldco
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June 21st, 2014 at 1:01:26 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

If steels picks cool off then I will tone it down.



The Mariners were winning before you wrote this and now we're tied. Damn it! Now I have go throw the wife over my shoulder in order to break the curse!
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GWAE
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June 21st, 2014 at 1:54:29 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

The Mariners were winning before you wrote this and now we're tied. Damn it! Now I have go throw the wife over my shoulder in order to break the curse!



lol well it ended well.

FWIW, cooling off could be referring from going to 60% from 68%. ;-)
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beerseason
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June 21st, 2014 at 1:56:30 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

lol well it ended well.

FWIW, cooling off could be referring from going to 60% from 68%. ;-)



Boom, I had $125 on today's game!
GWAE
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June 21st, 2014 at 2:06:35 PM permalink
Quote: beerseason

Boom, I had $125 on today's game!



what did you get it at? That should pay at around $200.
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beerseason
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June 21st, 2014 at 2:09:40 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

what did you get it at? That should pay at around $200.



Got 64 and some change at +150 and then I seen the line change to +160 and plopped down another 60. So yeah about 200$, maybe just shy.
steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 6:53:44 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
New York Yankees -115
Seattle Mariners +480
Toronto Blue Jays -100
Milwaukee Brewers +100
Cleveland Indians -120
Washington Nationals +100
LA Angels of Anaheim +100

Yesterday's results: +445
+130dogs +480
Other dogs -100
Favorites +65
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +5,261
+130dogs +6,697
Other dogs +19
Favorites -1,455
Focus Picks +527
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steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 7:02:13 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Houston Astros 104
Baltimore Orioles 185 (3 units)
Kansas City Royals -142
Colorado Rockies 116
Arizona DiamondBacks 136 (3 Units)

+130dog Picks:
Baltimore Orioles 185 (3 units)
Arizona DiamondBacks 136 (3 Units)

Focus Pick:
Kansas City Royals -142
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steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 10:11:58 AM permalink
Baltimore vs. Tanaka. Tough. Let's hope that the league has a bit better handle on Tanaka now than it did earlier.
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GWAE
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June 22nd, 2014 at 10:16:36 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Baltimore vs. Tanaka. Tough. Let's hope that the league has a bit better handle on Tanaka now than it did earlier.



yeah when I saw that pick I was like, WTF kinda algorithm is he using. I would have never picked that one, but I am only 40% on the year overall so I am playing it since you are on fire.
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steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 10:20:30 AM permalink
OK. Just remember that the wife won't be letting me throw her over my shoulder again........
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steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 10:41:26 AM permalink
Assuming that I'm doing the math correctly and since nobody is telling me that I'm full of it, then this bares repeating.....
Wins 107
Losses 105
Total Plays 212
Win rate: 50.47%

Average Return Per Winning Pick 162.58

50.47% X $162.58 = 82.06

The +130dogs are hitting at the equivalent of a 82.06% win rate on straight up picks.
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steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 1:13:35 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

yeah when I saw that pick I was like, WTF kinda algorithm is he using. I would have never picked that one, but I am only 40% on the year overall so I am playing it since you are on fire.



So far, so good. Tanaka is tough but Tillman has been a little tougher.
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beerseason
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June 22nd, 2014 at 1:26:47 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

So far, so good. Tanaka is tough but Tillman has been a little tougher.



Good news is they have probably chased Tanaka, and heart of the order up for both teams.
steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 1:58:43 PM permalink
Looks like, with Baltimore up 7 to 0, that we pretty much are assured of a winning day today. And that's not even the best news of the day.

Since I was stuck at home today, I decided to try to pull together an NBA algorithm using money lines that would as closely as possible mimic what my MLB dogs do. Well, I got to something that I thought was close and decided to try and back test it. I've gotten thru the first 8 days of the last NBA season (awfully friggin' tedious btw) and I have gotten the following results:

10/31/2013 +200
11/1/2013 +295
11/2/2013 +120
11/3/2013 +130
11/4/2013 -200
11/5/2013 +350
11/6/2013 +365
11/7/2013 +10


If this testing continues in this manner, it's going to continue to be a helluva year....beyond baseball.
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GWAE
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June 22nd, 2014 at 2:23:56 PM permalink
Lol I am so bad at this. I am glad I bet based on your pick instead of my feeling.
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steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 2:26:00 PM permalink
It looks like San Francisco is getting in the way of a another perfect day for us. But...I think Goldschmidt can take one out of the park on Bumgarner....hopefully with somebody on base.
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steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 4:21:46 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Since I was stuck at home today, I decided to try to pull together an NBA algorithm using money lines that would as closely as possible mimic what my MLB dogs do. Well, I got to something that I thought was close and decided to try and back test it. I've gotten thru the first 8 days of the last NBA season (awfully friggin' tedious btw) and I have gotten the following results:

10/31/2013 +200
11/1/2013 +295
11/2/2013 +120
11/3/2013 +130
11/4/2013 -200
11/5/2013 +350
11/6/2013 +365
11/7/2013 +10


If this testing continues in this manner, it's going to continue to be a helluva year....beyond baseball.



The NBA is going to be FANTASTIC! I back tested a few more days, and yes small sample size, but I gotta tell ya the algorithm correctly picked 2 huge upsets. One paying 925 and the other paying 1,100 on 100 bets. Not having played the money lines in the NBA before, I had not realized how large some dogs could be. WOW!
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steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 5:07:41 PM permalink
Yet another winning day for the +130dogs.

Today's Results:
Houston Astros -100
Baltimore Orioles +555
Kansas City Royals -142
Colorado Rockies -100
Arizona DiamondBacks -300

Yesterday's results: -87
+130dogs +255
Other dogs -200
Favorites -142
Focus Picks -142

YTD Total +5,174
+130dogs +6,952
Other dogs -181
Favorites -1,597
Focus Picks +385
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RTDDTT
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June 22nd, 2014 at 5:49:39 PM permalink
Pretty awesome Steel, started using your picks a few days ago. You saved my MLB season. Keep up the great work and thanks a lot!
steeldco
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June 22nd, 2014 at 6:07:11 PM permalink
Hey RTDDTT, you're welcome!
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steeldco
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June 23rd, 2014 at 3:37:16 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Toronto Blue Jays -113
Chicago White Sox -125
Pittsburgh Pirates 140 (3 units)
Milwaukee Brewers -124
Kansas City Royals 122
St. Louis Cardinals -111
Boston Red Sox 143 (3 units)
San Francisco Giants -130

Today's +130dogs:
Pittsburgh Pirates 140 (3 units)
Boston Red Sox 143 (3 units)

Today's Focus Pick:
Kansas City Royals 122
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GWAE
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June 23rd, 2014 at 7:36:25 PM permalink
And boom goes the dynamite.
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steeldco
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June 24th, 2014 at 3:19:30 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Toronto Blue Jays +100
Chicago White Sox -125
Pittsburgh Pirates +420
Milwaukee Brewers -124
Kansas City Royals +122
St. Louis Cardinals +100
Boston Red Sox -300
San Francisco Giants -130

Yesterday's results: +63
+130dogs +120
Other dogs +122
Favorites -179
Focus Picks +122

YTD Total +5,237
+130dogs +7,072
Other dogs -59
Favorites -1,776
Focus Picks +507
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steeldco
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June 24th, 2014 at 3:28:06 AM permalink
Since the winning has continued and the bankroll is up, I've decided that it is time to increase the size of the wager again. I will be going to 4 units on the +130dogs.

Today's Picks:
New York Yankees 130 (4 units)
Chicago White Sox 122
New York Mets 127
Detroit Tigers -120
Kansas City Royals 128
Washington Nationals 110
LA Angels of Anaheim -178
Seattle Mariners 115

+130dogs Picks:
New York Yankees 130 (4 units)

Focus Picks:
Detroit Tigers -120
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beerseason
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June 24th, 2014 at 4:03:47 AM permalink
How's the NBA coming along?
steeldco
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June 24th, 2014 at 4:11:08 AM permalink
Backtested a couple of more days. Looks to be returning nearly identical %'s to what the MLB +130dogs are doing. Getting to the point where it just may be pretty wild.
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steeldco
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June 24th, 2014 at 4:13:25 AM permalink
Starting to get worn out though...may need a break away from the computer for a few days.
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steeldco
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June 25th, 2014 at 3:19:13 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
New York Yankees -400
Chicago White Sox +122
New York Mets +127
Detroit Tigers +100
Kansas City Royals -100
Washington Nationals +110
LA Angels of Anaheim +100
Seattle Mariners +115

Yesterday's results: +174
+130dogs -400
Other dogs +374
Favorites +200
Focus Picks +100

YTD Total +5,411
+130dogs +6,672
Other dogs +315
Favorites -1,576
Focus Picks +607
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steeldco
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June 25th, 2014 at 3:42:21 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Pittsburgh Pirates 140 (4 units)
Washington Nationals -130
St. Louis Cardinals -105
San Francisco Giants -130
Philadelphia Phillies -120
Chicago White Sox 145 (4 units)
Toronto Blue Jays -118
Oakland Athletics -112
Texas Rangers 130 (4 units)
Atlanta Braves -118
Cleveland Indians -124
Minnesota Twins 180 (4 units)
Boston Red Sox 135 (4 units)

+130dogs Picks:
Pittsburgh Pirates 140 (4 units)
Chicago White Sox 145 (4 units)
Texas Rangers 130 (4 units)
Minnesota Twins 180 (4 units)
Boston Red Sox 135 (4 units)


Focus Picks:
None
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GWAE
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June 25th, 2014 at 6:02:31 AM permalink
WHOLLY 130S BATMAN

Last nights game was a heart breaker. They came back to tie it from 5 down in the 7th to lose it in the bottom of the 9th.
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steeldco
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June 25th, 2014 at 6:28:48 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

WHOLLY 130S BATMAN

Last nights game was a heart breaker. They came back to tie it from 5 down in the 7th to lose it in the bottom of the 9th.



Yep. And what's even worse is that it was on a throwing error. I'd really rather not lose that way...........
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GWAE
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June 26th, 2014 at 1:54:55 AM permalink
:-( !!
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steeldco
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June 26th, 2014 at 3:47:00 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Pittsburgh Pirates -400
Washington Nationals -130
St. Louis Cardinals +100
San Francisco Giants 1+00
Philadelphia Phillies -120
Chicago White Sox -400
Toronto Blue Jays -118
Oakland Athletics +100
Texas Rangers -400
Atlanta Braves +100
Cleveland Indians +100
Minnesota Twins -400
Boston Red Sox +540

Yesterday's results: -928
+130dogs -1,060
Other dogs 0
Favorites +132
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +4,483
+130dogs +5,612
Other dogs +315
Favorites -1,444
Focus Picks +607
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steeldco
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June 26th, 2014 at 4:07:58 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Minnesota Twins 175 (4 units)
New York Mets 144 (4 units)
Chicago White Sox 155 (4 units)
Texas Rangers 130 (4 units)
Cincinnati Reds 103

+130dogs Picks:
Minnesota Twins 175 (4 units)
New York Mets 144 (4 units)
Chicago White Sox 155 (4 units)
Texas Rangers 130 (4 units)

Focus Picks:
None
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steeldco
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June 27th, 2014 at 6:00:20 AM permalink
Now that was a lousy day. The losing streak for +130dogs has now reached 3 consecutive days. This has happened 3 times previously this year. This year, we have never seen it extended to a 4 consecutive day losing streak. I hope that record will continue to stand.

Yesterday's Results:
Minnesota Twins -400
New York Mets -400
Chicago White Sox -400
Texas Rangers -400
Cincinnati Reds +100

Yesterday's results: -1,500
+130dogs -1,600
Other dogs +100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +2,983
+130dogs +4,012
Other dogs +415
Favorites -1,444
Focus Picks +607
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steeldco
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June 27th, 2014 at 6:01:34 AM permalink
Here's the current by week data for the +130dogs:

Week 1 Fri-Thurs +757
Week 2 Fri-Thurs +21
Week 3 Fri-Thurs +1,027
Week 4 Fri-Thurs +676
Week 5 Fri-Thurs -14
Week 6 Fri-Thurs +36
Week 7 Fri-Thurs +805
Week 8 Fri-Thurs +354
Week 9 Fri-Thurs -159
Week 10 Fri-Thurs +502
Week 11 Fri-Thurs +1,882
Week 12 Fri-Thurs -1,875
Total +4,012
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steeldco
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June 27th, 2014 at 6:29:29 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Tampa Bay Rays 128
Philadelphia Phillies 127
Boston Red Sox -102
Miami Marlins 150 (4 units)
Minnesota Twins 124
Detroit Tigers -154
LA Angels of Anaheim -101
Colorado Rockies 179 (4 units)
Cincinnati Reds 103

+130dogs Picks:
Miami Marlins 150 (4 units)
Colorado Rockies 179 (4 units)

Focus Picks:
None

Edited to remove the Baltimore pick, which was the 2nd. half of a doubleheader. The algorithm isn't able to take into account the 1st. game results and therefore I always skip any 2nd. game.
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June 28th, 2014 at 6:57:22 AM permalink
For the first time this year, the +130dogs have hit a string of 4 consecutive losing days...

Yesterday's Results:
Tampa Bay Rays +128
Philadelphia Phillies -100
Boston Red Sox -102
Miami Marlins -400
Minnesota Twins -100
Detroit Tigers -154
LA Angels of Anaheim -101
Colorado Rockies -400
Cincinnati Reds +103

Yesterday's results: -1,126
+130dogs -800
Other dogs +31
Favorites -357
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +1,857
+130dogs +3,212
Other dogs +446
Favorites -1,801
Focus Picks +607
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steeldco
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June 28th, 2014 at 7:20:43 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Chicago Cubs 138 (4 units)
LA Angels of Anaheim 123
Tampa Bay Rays 127
New York Mets 143 (4 units)
Miami Marlins 138 (4 units)
Boston Red Sox 146 (4 units)
Cincinnati Reds 104
Cleveland Indians 110

+130dogs picks:
Chicago Cubs 138 (4 units)
New York Mets 143 (4 units)
Miami Marlins 138 (4 units)
Boston Red Sox 146 (4 Units)

Focus Picks:
None
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steeldco
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steeldco
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June 29th, 2014 at 5:17:26 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Chicago Cubs -400
LA Angels of Anaheim +123
Tampa Bay Rays +127
New York Mets +572
Miami Marlins -400
Boston Red Sox +584
Cincinnati Reds +104
Cleveland Indians +110

Yesterday's results: +820
+130dogs +356
Other dogs +464
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +2,677
+130dogs +3,568
Other dogs +910
Favorites -1,801
Focus Picks +607
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steeldco
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  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
June 29th, 2014 at 7:23:37 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Miami Marlins 128
Philadelphia Phillies 111
Colorado Rockies 160 (4 units)
Detroit Tigers -125
Kansas City Royals -101
Minnesota Twins 108
San Francisco Giants -115
St. Louis Cardinals 180 (4 units)

+130dogs Picks:
Colorado Rockies 160 (4 units)
St. Louis Cardinals 180 (4 units)

Focus Picks:
Detroit Tigers -125
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
June 30th, 2014 at 4:52:02 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Miami Marlins -100
Philadelphia Phillies -100
Colorado Rockies +640
Detroit Tigers -125
Kansas City Royals +100
Minnesota Twins +108
San Francisco Giants -100
St. Louis Cardinals -400

Yesterday's results: +23
+130dogs +240
Other dogs -92
Favorites -125
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +2,700
+130dogs +3,808
Other dogs +818
Favorites -1,926
Focus Picks +607
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
June 30th, 2014 at 5:17:25 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Texas Rangers 146 (4 units)
Tampa Bay Rays 101
New York Mets 160 (4 units)
Minnesota Twins 111
San Diego Padres 117


+130dogs Picks:
Texas Rangers 146 (4 units)
New York Mets 160 (4 units)

Focus Picks:
None
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
June 30th, 2014 at 8:51:46 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Yesterday's Results:
Miami Marlins -100
Philadelphia Phillies -100
Colorado Rockies +640
Detroit Tigers -125
Kansas City Royals +100
Minnesota Twins +108
San Francisco Giants -100
St. Louis Cardinals -400

Yesterday's results: +23
+130dogs +240
Other dogs -92
Favorites -125
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +2,700
+130dogs +3,808
Other dogs +818
Favorites -1,926
Focus Picks +607



The above was posted with an error.
The below is the correct set of stats.
Yesterday's results: +23
+130dogs +240
Other dogs -92
Favorites -125
Focus Picks -125

YTD Total +2,700
+130dogs +3,808
Other dogs +818
Favorites -1,926
Focus Picks +482
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
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