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steeldco
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June 17th, 2014 at 3:27:12 AM permalink
Well, the bankroll has gotten large enough so as to allow me to increase the size of the wagers on the +130 dogs. I will be tripling the size. For the time being, the +130dogs will be 3 units.

Today's Picks:
Seattle Mariners -128
Pittsburgh Pirates 126
New York Yankees -170
Kansas City Royals 137 (3 units)
Philadelphia Phillies 150 (3 units)
Miami Marlins EV
New York Mets 160 (3 units)
Arizona DiamondBacks 107
Oakland Athletics 102
Los Angeles Dodgers -185

+130dogs:
Kansas City Royals 137 (3 units)
Philadelphia Phillies 150 (3 units)
New York Mets 160 (3 units)

Focus Pick:
Seattle Mariners -128
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steeldco
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June 17th, 2014 at 3:49:49 AM permalink
FYI, there's an afternoon game today.

Also, although a small sample size, the Focus Picks seem to be doing fairly well. There have 28 picks of this type and the win rate is 57.14%.
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beerseason
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June 17th, 2014 at 4:25:38 AM permalink
I've been doing 10% of my bankroll on any given game is that too much? I'm also not talking about life altering money here.
steeldco
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June 17th, 2014 at 4:36:05 AM permalink
beerseason, I'm not sure how to answer that. I started a thread entitled "When to increase the bet" in which a couple of members gave their advice. I took a liking to using the Kelly bet formula....except I cut it in half and rounded down. Going forward, I'm going to try to be a little more proactive with increasing my bet size.
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beerseason
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June 17th, 2014 at 4:36:58 AM permalink
For example, 400$ in account so I would wager 40$ on each game, so today I would have 120$ of my account in action today.
steeldco
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June 17th, 2014 at 4:39:02 AM permalink
Quote: beerseason

For example, 400$ in account so I would wager 40$ on each game, so today I would have 120$ of my account in action today.



I think that, if I did the math correctly, then 10% would be the right amount, per the Kelly bet formula.
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steeldco
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June 17th, 2014 at 4:39:53 AM permalink
Quote: beerseason

I'm also not talking about life altering money here.



How about we make it into life altering money......K?
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beerseason
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June 17th, 2014 at 5:24:33 AM permalink
Sounds like a plan to me
beerseason
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June 17th, 2014 at 4:45:31 PM permalink
Wow is Scherzer getting roughed up.
steeldco
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June 17th, 2014 at 5:11:23 PM permalink
Yep. I think, a top 3 pitcher in either league. I'll take it.
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GWAE
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June 17th, 2014 at 7:20:39 PM permalink
2 outta 3 on the 130s. Can't complain about that.
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steeldco
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June 18th, 2014 at 5:00:05 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Seattle Mariners +100
Pittsburgh Pirates -100
New York Yankees +100
Kansas City Royals +411
Philadelphia Phillies +450
Miami Marlins +100
New York Mets -300
Arizona DiamondBacks -100
Oakland Athletics +102
Los Angeles Dodgers +100

Yesterday's results: 863
+130dogs 561
Other dogs 2
Favorites 300
Focus Picks 100

YTD Total 3,745
+130dogs 4,945
Other dogs 186
Favorites -1,386
Focus Picks 612
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steeldco
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June 18th, 2014 at 5:08:36 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

2 outta 3 on the 130s. Can't complain about that.



Yep. Let's hope that it continues. I see that we've had a winning day with the +130dogs on 9 out of the last 11 days. I can definitely make a living on this..........
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steeldco
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June 18th, 2014 at 5:42:28 AM permalink
Unfortunately, today's picks are:

Atlanta Braves -155
Miami Marlins -125
Detroit Tigers -140
San Francisco Giants 120
Oakland Athletics -172
LA Angels of Anaheim -120
Washington Nationals -157
Pittsburgh Pirates -114

+130dog picks:
None

Focus Picks:
Atlanta Braves -155
San Francisco Giants 120
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GWAE
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June 18th, 2014 at 5:46:53 AM permalink
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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steeldco
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June 18th, 2014 at 6:05:06 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



LOL. Just have to wait another day...........
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steeldco
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June 18th, 2014 at 6:34:22 AM permalink
GWAE, I'll make a suggestion for today.
Although it's a small sample size of 29 picks so far, the Focus Picks have hit 58.62% winners. Maybe take your usual wager, cut it in half, and split it between the 2 Focus Picks for today?
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GWAE
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June 18th, 2014 at 6:52:19 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

GWAE, I'll make a suggestion for today.
Although it's a small sample size of 29 picks so far, the Focus Picks have hit 58.62% winners. Maybe take your usual wager, cut it in half, and split it between the 2 Focus Picks for today?



Sure, especially because the braves are one of my picks today. Although I am only at 41% on the year, so there is that.
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steeldco
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June 18th, 2014 at 8:47:31 AM permalink
FYI, early games today!
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steeldco
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June 18th, 2014 at 10:09:33 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Sure, especially because the braves are one of my picks today.



Wow. Aaron Harang is more sucky than normal.
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steeldco
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June 18th, 2014 at 10:11:23 AM permalink
.....and this is against the Phillies....one of baseball's worst hitting teams!
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GWAE
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June 18th, 2014 at 1:25:29 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

.....and this is against the Phillies....one of baseball's worst hitting teams!



well I did tell you that Atl was one of my picks today and I am only 40% on the season.

Luckily I didn't get any bets in since I was at work.
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steeldco
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June 19th, 2014 at 3:53:10 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Atlanta Braves -155
Miami Marlins -125
Detroit Tigers -140
San Francisco Giants -100
Oakland Athletics +100
LA Angels of Anaheim PPD
Washington Nationals +100
Pittsburgh Pirates -114

Yesterday's results: -434
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -100
Favorites -334
Focus Picks -255

YTD Total 3,311
+130dogs 4,945
Other dogs 86
Favorites -1,720
Focus Picks 357
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steeldco
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June 19th, 2014 at 4:16:28 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
LA Angels of Anaheim 103
Cincinnati Reds 103
Atlanta Braves 140
New York Yankees -102
Minnesota Twins EV
Philadelphia Phillies 174
Oakland Athletics -165


+130dogs:
Atlanta Braves 140
Philadelphia Phillies 174


Focus Picks:
LA Angels of Anaheim 103
New York Yankees -102
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steeldco
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June 19th, 2014 at 4:42:43 AM permalink
There are a couple of early games today.
Sorry, but I had forgotten to show the increase in wager size. The revised picks for today are:

Today's Picks:
LA Angels of Anaheim 103
Cincinnati Reds 103
Atlanta Braves 140 (3 units)
New York Yankees -102
Minnesota Twins EV
Philadelphia Phillies 174 (3 units)
Oakland Athletics -165


+130dogs:
Atlanta Braves 140 (3 units)
Philadelphia Phillies 174 (3 units)


Focus Picks:
LA Angels of Anaheim 103
New York Yankees -102
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GWAE
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June 19th, 2014 at 7:06:02 PM permalink
another winning 130 day and philly looking good.
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beerseason
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June 19th, 2014 at 7:24:38 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

another winning 130 day and philly looking good.



What a heater we are on.
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June 19th, 2014 at 8:13:41 PM permalink
Quote: beerseason

What a heater we are on.



I had 46.72 on each tonight so it was a good night in my book
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steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 3:40:49 AM permalink
Feelin' good this morning. Got this song that keeps playing over and over in my head....old Elvis I believe.......
I'm a Steamroller baby....

The +130dog results by week:
Week 1 Fri-Thurs +757
Week 2 Fri-Thurs +21
Week 3 Fri-Thurs +1,027
Week 4 Fri-Thurs +676
Week 5 Fri-Thurs -14
Week 6 Fri-Thurs +36
Week 7 Fri-Thurs +805
Week 8 Fri-Thurs +354
Week 9 Fri-Thurs -159
Week 10 Fri-Thurs +502
Week 11 Fri-Thurs +1,882
Total +5,887
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steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 3:42:36 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
LA Angels of Anaheim -100
Cincinnati Reds -100
Atlanta Braves +420
New York Yankees +100
Minnesota Twins +100
Philadelphia Phillies +522
Oakland Athletics +100

Yesterday's results: +1,042
+130dogs +942
Other dogs -100
Favorites +200
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +4,353
+130dogs +5,887
Other dogs -14
Favorites -1,520
Focus Picks +357
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steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 3:45:19 AM permalink
Updated +130dog YTD stats are below. After just a few days of having raised the wager size, I am probably looking at doing it again. Soon....

Wins 104
Losses 105
Total Plays 209

Wins 16,587
Losses -10,700
Net 5,887


Total Invested 761
Return 5,887
Return % 773.59%

Avg. Daily Invested 276.62
Avg. Daily Return 76.45
Avg. Daily Return % 27.64%

Average Per Winning Pick 159.4903846
Average Win Per All Picks 28.16746411
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steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 3:48:42 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

2 outta 3 on the 130s. Can't complain about that.



....and 2 out of 2 is a bit better...........
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steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 3:50:22 AM permalink
I cannot, would not, believe that anyone has a better Major League Baseball betting system.........
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steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 4:13:32 AM permalink
Since I see a trend here regarding playing on Fridays, I'm going to pullback my recently raised wager amount from 3 units to 1 unit for the +130dogs today.
Just for today. A bit of a hedge. Here are the results YTD by day:
Monday +829
Tuesday +2,591
Wednesday +780
Thursday +1,599
Friday -1,328
Saturday +708
Sunday +708
Total +5,887

Today's Picks:
Chicago Cubs 110
Atlanta Braves 160 (1 unit)
Baltimore Orioles 114
Toronto Blue Jays 123
Houston Astros 170 (1 unit)
Chicago White Sox 110
Milwaukee Brewers EV

+130dog picks:
Atlanta Braves 160 (1 unit)
Houston Astros 170 (1 unit)

Focus Pick:
Houston Astros 170
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beerseason
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June 20th, 2014 at 5:36:48 AM permalink
I had 40 and 39.89 I hate uneven numbers then this morning when I checked my balance it was 599.71 :(
steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 5:40:23 AM permalink
I think I'm having a love affair with my computer. I could never have crunched this a few years ago.
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Beardgoat
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June 20th, 2014 at 6:26:08 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I cannot, would not, believe that anyone has a better Major League Baseball betting system.........



I truly do not intend this to have any malicious intent, but you were quite a bit in the negative in your baseball picks for 2012 and 2013. You've also never had a winning season in football or basketball picks. What makes you think that this streak is based on any sort of formula and not luck when the last 6 formulas failed miserably?
steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 6:36:33 AM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

I truly do not intend this to have any malicious intent, but you were quite a bit in the negative in your baseball picks for 2012 and 2013. You've also never had a winning season in football or basketball picks. What makes you think that this streak is based on any sort of formula and not luck when the last 6 formulas failed miserably?



First, if you would just like to call me lucky, then that's cool.

However, although losing on a net basis with my prior baseball picks, if you look at just the +130dogs, you will find that is not the case. That is what I am referring to here. The +130dogs have been wildly profitable with 200+ picks this year, and although I don't have the stat handy, I would guess something in excess of that last year. Where else would you find a system returning in excess of 27% PER DAY for this sustained period of time. So I would think that it'd be one helluva of a good luck streak. And again, that's OK.

Football is close, but not yet a winner. NBA just plain old sucks, but I continue to work on it.
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steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 6:56:19 AM permalink
Also, below is a list of the net winnings and net losses, by day, since the season started on just the +130dogs. Considering the size of the net winnings, educate me as to how it might be construed as luck, again not that it matters :-).

Day Per Day
Friday -61
Saturday 66
Sunday 445
Monday -100
Tuesday -200
Wednesday 247
Thursday 360
Friday -400
Saturday 79
Sunday -60
Monday 140
Tuesday 302
Wednesday -100
Thursday 60
Friday -200
Saturday -400
Sunday 282
Monday -15
Tuesday 412
Wednesday 515
Thursday 433
Friday -170
Saturday 227
Sunday 370
Monday 154
Tuesday 85
Wednesday -32
Thursday 42
Friday -100
Saturday -200
Sunday 32
Monday 136
Tuesday 278
Wednesday -200
Thursday 40
Friday -200
Saturday -200
Sunday 313
Monday 83
Tuesday 0
Wednesday 240
Thursday -200
Friday 30
Saturday 424
Sunday -200
Monday 0
Tuesday 643
Wednesday -22
Thursday -70
Friday -300
Saturday 306
Sunday -4
Monday 202
Tuesday -34
Wednesday 47
Thursday 137
Friday 208
Saturday -162
Sunday -200
Monday -100
Tuesday 340
Wednesday -200
Thursday -45
Friday -200
Saturday 413
Sunday -270
Monday 170
Tuesday 204
Wednesday 285
Thursday -100
Friday 65
Saturday 155
Sunday 0
Monday 159
Tuesday 561
Wednesday 0
Thursday 942
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Beardgoat
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June 20th, 2014 at 7:25:00 AM permalink
The +130 results are very good. Do these results include all +130 dogs or do you only pick certain +130 dogs each day based on your formula?
steeldco
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June 20th, 2014 at 7:29:50 AM permalink
Thanks. They are only certain +130dogs. The process is a pick generated by my algorithm, and then of those selected, the ones that are +130dogs.
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June 20th, 2014 at 7:37:07 AM permalink
BTW Beardgoat, to my way of thinking (please let me know if I'm way off base with this thought) if I'm hitting 49.76% of the picks that have an average win of $159.49, then on a straight up basis this is the equivalent of winning a stunning 79+% of the bets (49.76%*159.49)
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June 20th, 2014 at 8:20:45 AM permalink
Well in 2 weeks I have gone from a $100 deposit to $494.53 in the account
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Beardgoat
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June 20th, 2014 at 11:36:26 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

BTW Beardgoat, to my way of thinking (please let me know if I'm way off base with this thought) if I'm hitting 49.76% of the picks that have an average win of $159.49, then on a straight up basis this is the equivalent of winning a stunning 79+% of the bets (49.76%*159.49)



Sorry steel, I'm one of the few guys on here that doesn't know the math involved
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June 20th, 2014 at 7:10:56 PM permalink
well it is another winning 130s but the Fing Braves. F U
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June 20th, 2014 at 8:42:18 PM permalink
Atlanta, you are forgiven. Except I am mad I had to watch a 13 inning game.
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June 21st, 2014 at 5:29:09 AM permalink
Nice game. You needed a little excitement.
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steeldco
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June 21st, 2014 at 5:30:25 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Chicago Cubs +110
Atlanta Braves +160
Baltimore Orioles -100
Toronto Blue Jays +123
Houston Astros +170
Chicago White Sox -100
Milwaukee Brewers +100

Yesterday's results: +463
+130dogs +330
Other dogs+ 133
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +170

YTD Total +4,816
+130dogs +6,217
Other dogs +119
Favorites -1,520
Focus Picks +527
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steeldco
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June 21st, 2014 at 5:54:27 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
New York Yankees -115
Seattle Mariners 160 (3 Units)
Toronto Blue Jays 120
Milwaukee Brewers -128
Cleveland Indians -120
Washington Nationals -121
LA Angels of Anaheim -200

+130dog picks:
Seattle Mariners 160 (3 Units)

Focus Picks:
None
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steeldco
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June 21st, 2014 at 6:38:25 AM permalink
Fast Fact:
The +130dogs are winning at a YTD 50.24% rate. The expected win rate for dogs getting 130 or more is around 36%.
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