Quote: TheJacobI can get Prater under 7.5 at +135. Should I bet this bigger than the other props out there?
I don't think I would go heavy on it. Prater's points by game this year: 7, 11, 13, 10, 15, 5, 9, 9, 4, 9, 7, 5, 15, 8, 13, 10, 6, 14
It essentially comes down to if you believe he will kick 2 FGs or more. Otherwise you need to believe in >=5 PATs. While that has happened some this year, you are way better betting DEN over 37.5pts if you believe in that. So, will he kick >=3 FGs or 2FGs and >=2 PATs. This seems reasonable, but I'm not in love with it.
In the case of good RZ defense and a close game >2 FGs seems reasonable. As I said, I like it but I don't love it.
SO betting yes manning will throw an interception(the example wizard gave) ,,,,you can win on the first play of the game...and if you dont..there will be dozens of other chances.
But if you bet "no"....you can lose on the first play of the game...and there is no recovery....no other chances.
Its ok to bet where you can win on one play
Like the example I gave....Wilson running for over/under 35
bet yes..you can win on the first play from scrimmage of the game...and if you dont win at that point you will have about 60 more chances
bet no...and u can lose on the first play of the game....and no other chances remain.
so I agree with wizard
Its fine to bet on something where one play during the game can give you a payout.
And its also ok to bet where an accumulation of plays can give you a win
But with all those fine bets available...I would not bet on a prop where I could lose on one common broken play.
If I could lose only by an infrequent , unusual play....thats ok....but for a regular broken play with wilson running for his life for example..that is common enough to keep me from the "under 35..There are plenty of bets like that......and they should be avoided by putting yourself in danger of losing on on common broken play,
I can see the "no safety" bet as t doesnt fall into losing on a common error. ThE QB may not even set foot in their own endzone the entire game, let alone get sacked in it.
When I bet to win, I bet to win. Not because I can stay alive most of the game, or lose or win on one play. I BET TO WIN.
" I would not bet on a prop where I could lose on one common broken play. " Even if was more likely to win ??????????
If so, you are a chump.
On another topic, the best I've seen no safety so far is -700 at Stations. No overtime seems to be -800 everywhere. Again, I predict the price will get better as the game gets closer.
Google MAX PAIN THEORY
Quote: WizardHere is my basic strategy for sports betting: Think of the side that would make the game more fun to watch -- and then bet the opposite way.
Why not just bang your head against the wall? It's cheaper and doesn't require a trip to the sports book.
Quote: LarrySthere is a big difference between betting where "you can win at any momemt" on one play.....AND BETTING WHERE YOU CAN LOSE AT ANY MOMENT.....ON ONE PLAY
Nope, there is no difference at all.
Quote:SO betting yes manning will throw an interception(the example wizard gave) ,,,,you can win on the first play of the game...and if you dont..there will be dozens of other chances.
But if you bet "no"....you can lose on the first play of the game...and there is no recovery....no other chances.
It doesn't matter how many chances you have. It only matters your probability of having won when the game is over.
Quote:Its ok to bet where you can win on one play
Like the example I gave....Wilson running for over/under 35
bet yes..you can win on the first play from scrimmage of the game...and if you dont win at that point you will have about 60 more chances
bet no...and u can lose on the first play of the game....and no other chances remain.
Yeah, it's because of sucker thinking like this that the games where you CAN lose on one play tend to have good prices.
Quote:so I agree with wizard
You just said that exact opposite of what the Wizard said, and then concluded that you agree with him.
That is amazing.
Manning plays bad in cold weather, he can't win the big one, etc.
And you Denver KNOW it alls, no the best defense is a good offense, I knew Manning would win his 2nd SB ring, etc.
If you KNEW anything you would have drained your bank account, pawned you shit, bet the farm. Big difference between knowing and guessing right.
Sorta like best chance for a safety is a punt downed inside 10 yard line and then quarterback sacked, like in 1986 Bear game. That was 1986. SB went 20 years without a safety, then had a safety in the last two Sb's, and neither happened that way.
As far as Denver scoring 30 and losing, well, not likely.
In 80 NFL championships, not a mere 47 SB's, it has happened exactly 1 time that both teams scored 30+.
I have no strong feeling about the game, just because it's the Super Bowl does not mean it will be a Super game. I have a strong feeling being the most penalized team in the NFL might cause Seattle to lose. But it's just a feeling.
Quote: michael99000Using historical NFL stats to predict the possibility of one type of play occurring doesn't make any sense.
I am VERY tempted to respond to this with a personal insult. How else can one predict the future but by analyzing the past? Come on man, you gotta be smarter than this.
Quote: Buzzard
SB went 20 years without a safety, then had a safety in the last two Sb's, .
I think There's actually been a safety in 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls
Edit: 3 of the last 5
Never mind, you're Larry's friend. So you get a pass.
Most Safeties, Game
1 Dwight White, Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota, IX
Reggie Harrison, Pittsburgh vs. Dallas, X
Henry Waechter, Chicago vs. New England, XX
George Martin, N.Y. Giants vs. Denver, XXI
Bruce Smith, Buffalo vs. N.Y. Giants, XXV
Tom Brady (intentional grounding penalty), N.Y. Giants vs. New England, XLVI
Chris Culliver, San Francisco vs. Baltimore, XLVII
Quote: bigfoot66I am VERY tempted to respond to this with a personal insult. How else can one predict the future but by analyzing the past? Come on man, you gotta be smarter than this.
Point was, just because there's a safety in 6% of NFL games historically... Doesn't mean every individual game has that exact same 6% chance of producing one. If what I wrote portrayed something other than that, than I worded it wrong.
Some games the odds might be 8%, some games the odds may be 4%... And over the course of times it's averaged out to 6%.
There are factors which lead to a safety that are NOT the same in every game
Quote: BuzzardI request that those people who KNOW what is going to happen in the Super Bowl, PLEASE post your bullshit now. I do not want to read...
I want Denver to win. But I don't know anything :P
Gee, lets look at the last 2 safeties. A QB is guilty of intentional grounding, Tom Brady, no less.
A team fails on 4th down and as a result 4 plays later the other team takes a safety intentionally.
Would you predict those beforehand as 4% or 8% ? DUH !
It was even closer on the high street this afternoon - best prices were Seattle 11/10, Denver 5/6.Quote: charliepatrick(ii) Winner Seattle Evens, Denver 5/6.
PS My "big" bet was £6 to win £5 and £5.50 to win £5 on Denver - 1.5.
Quote: BuzzardI request that those people who KNOW what is going to happen in the Super Bowl,
Ok, I know one team will make a risky, controversial play. If it succeeds it will be hailed as "the play that won the Super Bowl." If it fails it will be derided as "the play that lost the Super Bowl." Either way 99.99999999+% of people talking about the game on Monday (or late on Sunday, even) will claim that as soon as they saw it going on, they "knew" it was a stroke of genius or a boneheaded mistake.
That's it. That's all I "know."
Oh, and someone will be here bitching about a big bet they lost.
Quote: Buzzard" There are factors which lead to a safety that are NOT the same in every game ."
Gee, lets look at the last 2 safeties. A QB is guilty of intentional grounding, Tom Brady, no less.
A team fails on 4th down and as a result 4 plays later the other team takes a safety intentionally.
Would you predict those beforehand as 4% or 8% ? DUH !
I don't know, what -would- you have predicted beforehand? I've seen lots of noise from Buzz about how dumb everyone else is, but not a single comment from Buzz on what he thinks the good bets are.
Easy to be a critic with no opinion. Personally, I'm keeping mine to myself, because there's little point sharing with this sort of commentary. But I did get money down on on others things than the Safety here.
Quote: BuzzardThe WIZ went up big time in my book when he posted his 7K losing safety ticket last year. No crybaby him !
Hey, if you want to see losing tickets, I have piles of them that I'll gladly post pictures of.
Under 9.5 punts @ -150
First score touchdown @ -140
I think there is a rich square there betting big. I'm sure I moved these lines but they might move back.
I thought I saw 8/1 safety in a shop today and can see 15/2 overtime on Paddy Power, so either of these at 1/7 sounds a great bet.Quote: WizardThe Wynn had no safety and no overtime both at -700 this morning...
Quote: Wizard
a rich square . .
The Wynn must love that
Quote: Buzzard" geez....i would think even buzzard can understand that...without talking about horse races or fairy tales or fried chicken "
When I bet to win, I bet to win. Not because I can stay alive most of the game, or lose or win on one play. I BET TO WIN.
" I would not bet on a prop where I could lose on one common broken play. " Even if was more likely to win ??????????
If so, you are a chump.
Well i gave examples....so now go ahead...give us examples of prop bets that are more likely to win...that could be lost on a broken comon play
Quote: WizardThe Wynn had no safety and no overtime both at -700 this morning. A couple other great bets over there were:
Under 9.5 punts @ -150
First score touchdown @ -140
I think there is a rich square there betting big. I'm sure I moved these lines but they might move back.
I wish you all the best. Positive Variance tomorrow. I won't say you are due for a game with no safety, but you sure as hell deserve it in my book.
Quote: WizardI have lots of prop sheets but they are 8.5" x 14" and my scanner is only 11" long.
In other news, I just added more props to my calculator. The topic of Gambling with an Edge tonight will be my prop picks.
What spread would you input for a game without a home team? (e.g. super bowls, game in London)
One possibility I'm trying is averaging two views. I take the "neutral field line" and the add the 3 points for home field adv to the favorite and record those lines. I then average those lines with the lines from adding 3 points to the underdog.
Quote: LarrySWell i gave examples....so now go ahead...give us examples of prop bets that are more likely to win...that could be lost on a broken comon play
This 41 second clip will explain everything, Larry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuDDqU6n4o
At -675 I think no safety is a great bet. But as to your point, which back to back safety do you prefer ?
Sweating the whole Super Bowl game last year that the Raven pass rush might cause a safety, and then when you thought you had the game won, being surprised and watching the Raven punter take an intentional safety with 4 seconds left ?
Or this one that opened the season this year :
The Tennessee Titans got the ball rolling on their first play of the season. Running back Darius Reynaud picked up the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opening kickoff right at the goal line, thinking that he could move back into the end zone and get a touchback. But since he touched the ball before it crossed the plane of the goal line, Reynaud put his team 2-0 in the hole.
Personally I have no preference.
All you could do is regurgitate a bet that you lose from an uncommon play.
again what bet where you can lose on one common play do you think is a "good bet"
its uncommon to score a safety. Sometimes you need 2 sacks in a series in order to obtain it. The "on purpose" safety IS RARE. So obviously this bet does not fall into the category where I sayto ignore props where a single common play could blow up your bet.
A single play that can make u win is fine. But what great value did u find that over-rides my advice. Tell us the prop where you could lose it on one singel broken play that is a great value.
wilson running under 36?
wilson longest completion under 36?
go ahead tell me a very good value prop bet that can blow up on one common play
you oppose my philosophy.....so give an example.
meanwhile although I have a small amount on seattle in a parlay, where winnepeg already came in......I am so scared of manning, because he has won a superbowl once befORE....going 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in that post season run,...Impressive.....VERY IMPRESSIVE
We will see if his "success" continues.
Who gives a shit whether you can win or lose a bet on one play or not ?
BET TO WIN WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE AN EDGE
Not because your money will be in action longer.
Quote: BuzzardCan anyone interpret what the hell Larry is saying ? ? Each time I read it, I understand it less.
Who gives a shit whether you can win or lose a bet on one play or not ?
BET TO WIN WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE AN EDGE
Not because your money will be in action longer.
Don't be too hard on him. If it were not for guys like this, there would be no casinos or sportbooks. And that is not a world I want to live in!
Quote: IbeatyouracesThere goes that safety bet, lol!
I knew I should have bet more!
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI knew I should have bet more!
About an hour ago I almost proposed $50 @ +1000 to you to get my mission nugget money back!
3rd year in a row.
2nd time in 3 years that it was the first score.
On a positive note, next year's NO will be -250!
Quote: Mission146I'm not sure, is anyone reading this from Vegas right now, in a casino? I'd be interested in seeing what the Vegas odds will be on Denver coming back in the second half to win the game. I have no plans on betting it, just interested in what the Line on that is, regardless of score at that time.
According to a post from another forum site, it was Denver +370. (This was when it was 22-0.)
Quote: Mission146I'm not sure, is anyone reading this from Vegas right now, in a casino? I'd be interested in seeing what the Vegas odds will be on Denver coming back in the second half to win the game. I have no plans on betting it, just interested in what the Line on that is, regardless of score at that time.
Bovada has it at +550