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endermike
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January 31st, 2014 at 6:09:40 PM permalink
Quote: TheJacob

I can get Prater under 7.5 at +135. Should I bet this bigger than the other props out there?



I don't think I would go heavy on it. Prater's points by game this year: 7, 11, 13, 10, 15, 5, 9, 9, 4, 9, 7, 5, 15, 8, 13, 10, 6, 14

It essentially comes down to if you believe he will kick 2 FGs or more. Otherwise you need to believe in >=5 PATs. While that has happened some this year, you are way better betting DEN over 37.5pts if you believe in that. So, will he kick >=3 FGs or 2FGs and >=2 PATs. This seems reasonable, but I'm not in love with it.

In the case of good RZ defense and a close game >2 FGs seems reasonable. As I said, I like it but I don't love it.
LarryS
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January 31st, 2014 at 6:12:04 PM permalink
there is a big difference between betting where "you can win at any momemt" on one play.....AND BETTING WHERE YOU CAN LOSE AT ANY MOMENT.....ON ONE PLAY


SO betting yes manning will throw an interception(the example wizard gave) ,,,,you can win on the first play of the game...and if you dont..there will be dozens of other chances.

But if you bet "no"....you can lose on the first play of the game...and there is no recovery....no other chances.


Its ok to bet where you can win on one play

Like the example I gave....Wilson running for over/under 35

bet yes..you can win on the first play from scrimmage of the game...and if you dont win at that point you will have about 60 more chances

bet no...and u can lose on the first play of the game....and no other chances remain.

so I agree with wizard


Its fine to bet on something where one play during the game can give you a payout.

And its also ok to bet where an accumulation of plays can give you a win

But with all those fine bets available...I would not bet on a prop where I could lose on one common broken play.

If I could lose only by an infrequent , unusual play....thats ok....but for a regular broken play with wilson running for his life for example..that is common enough to keep me from the "under 35..There are plenty of bets like that......and they should be avoided by putting yourself in danger of losing on on common broken play,

I can see the "no safety" bet as t doesnt fall into losing on a common error. ThE QB may not even set foot in their own endzone the entire game, let alone get sacked in it.
Buzzard
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January 31st, 2014 at 6:43:20 PM permalink
" geez....i would think even buzzard can understand that...without talking about horse races or fairy tales or fried chicken "

When I bet to win, I bet to win. Not because I can stay alive most of the game, or lose or win on one play. I BET TO WIN.

" I would not bet on a prop where I could lose on one common broken play. " Even if was more likely to win ??????????

If so, you are a chump.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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January 31st, 2014 at 6:49:23 PM permalink
Please let us less knowledgeable gamblers know which props bet you prefer. And before kickoff, please !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Wizard
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January 31st, 2014 at 7:06:40 PM permalink
Here is my basic strategy for sports betting: Think of the side that would make the game more fun to watch -- and then bet the opposite way.

On another topic, the best I've seen no safety so far is -700 at Stations. No overtime seems to be -800 everywhere. Again, I predict the price will get better as the game gets closer.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
michael99000
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January 31st, 2014 at 7:12:28 PM permalink
Kinda like how the stock options market works ... Whatever result would cause the most amount of people to lose money, is usually what happens.

Google MAX PAIN THEORY
Nareed
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January 31st, 2014 at 7:17:04 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is my basic strategy for sports betting: Think of the side that would make the game more fun to watch -- and then bet the opposite way.



Why not just bang your head against the wall? It's cheaper and doesn't require a trip to the sports book.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
AxiomOfChoice
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January 31st, 2014 at 7:19:31 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

there is a big difference between betting where "you can win at any momemt" on one play.....AND BETTING WHERE YOU CAN LOSE AT ANY MOMENT.....ON ONE PLAY



Nope, there is no difference at all.

Quote:

SO betting yes manning will throw an interception(the example wizard gave) ,,,,you can win on the first play of the game...and if you dont..there will be dozens of other chances.

But if you bet "no"....you can lose on the first play of the game...and there is no recovery....no other chances.



It doesn't matter how many chances you have. It only matters your probability of having won when the game is over.

Quote:

Its ok to bet where you can win on one play

Like the example I gave....Wilson running for over/under 35

bet yes..you can win on the first play from scrimmage of the game...and if you dont win at that point you will have about 60 more chances

bet no...and u can lose on the first play of the game....and no other chances remain.



Yeah, it's because of sucker thinking like this that the games where you CAN lose on one play tend to have good prices.

Quote:

so I agree with wizard



You just said that exact opposite of what the Wizard said, and then concluded that you agree with him.

That is amazing.
Buzzard
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January 31st, 2014 at 8:27:32 PM permalink
I request that those people who KNOW what is going to happen in the Super Bowl, PLEASE post your bullshit now. I do not want to read I KNEW Seattle would win because defense wins championship,
Manning plays bad in cold weather, he can't win the big one, etc.

And you Denver KNOW it alls, no the best defense is a good offense, I knew Manning would win his 2nd SB ring, etc.

If you KNEW anything you would have drained your bank account, pawned you shit, bet the farm. Big difference between knowing and guessing right.

Sorta like best chance for a safety is a punt downed inside 10 yard line and then quarterback sacked, like in 1986 Bear game. That was 1986. SB went 20 years without a safety, then had a safety in the last two Sb's, and neither happened that way.

As far as Denver scoring 30 and losing, well, not likely.

In 80 NFL championships, not a mere 47 SB's, it has happened exactly 1 time that both teams scored 30+.

I have no strong feeling about the game, just because it's the Super Bowl does not mean it will be a Super game. I have a strong feeling being the most penalized team in the NFL might cause Seattle to lose. But it's just a feeling.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
bigfoot66
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January 31st, 2014 at 8:34:45 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Using historical NFL stats to predict the possibility of one type of play occurring doesn't make any sense.



I am VERY tempted to respond to this with a personal insult. How else can one predict the future but by analyzing the past? Come on man, you gotta be smarter than this.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
Buzzard
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January 31st, 2014 at 8:39:49 PM permalink
The only valid way is call my 800 tip line. I have a secret partnership with 23 players on the two teams.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
michael99000
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January 31st, 2014 at 10:03:01 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard



SB went 20 years without a safety, then had a safety in the last two Sb's, .


I think There's actually been a safety in 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls

Edit: 3 of the last 5
Buzzard
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January 31st, 2014 at 10:18:17 PM permalink
Care to bet on that , my friend ?

Never mind, you're Larry's friend. So you get a pass.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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January 31st, 2014 at 10:23:16 PM permalink
Records updated through the 2012 season
Most Safeties, Game
1 Dwight White, Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota, IX
Reggie Harrison, Pittsburgh vs. Dallas, X
Henry Waechter, Chicago vs. New England, XX
George Martin, N.Y. Giants vs. Denver, XXI
Bruce Smith, Buffalo vs. N.Y. Giants, XXV
Tom Brady (intentional grounding penalty), N.Y. Giants vs. New England, XLVI
Chris Culliver, San Francisco vs. Baltimore, XLVII
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
michael99000
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January 31st, 2014 at 10:27:34 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

I am VERY tempted to respond to this with a personal insult. How else can one predict the future but by analyzing the past? Come on man, you gotta be smarter than this.



Point was, just because there's a safety in 6% of NFL games historically... Doesn't mean every individual game has that exact same 6% chance of producing one. If what I wrote portrayed something other than that, than I worded it wrong.

Some games the odds might be 8%, some games the odds may be 4%... And over the course of times it's averaged out to 6%.

There are factors which lead to a safety that are NOT the same in every game
AcesAndEights
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February 1st, 2014 at 9:35:50 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I request that those people who KNOW what is going to happen in the Super Bowl, PLEASE post your bullshit now. I do not want to read...


I want Denver to win. But I don't know anything :P
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Buzzard
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February 1st, 2014 at 9:39:20 AM permalink
" There are factors which lead to a safety that are NOT the same in every game ."

Gee, lets look at the last 2 safeties. A QB is guilty of intentional grounding, Tom Brady, no less.

A team fails on 4th down and as a result 4 plays later the other team takes a safety intentionally.

Would you predict those beforehand as 4% or 8% ? DUH !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
charliepatrick
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February 1st, 2014 at 9:39:23 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

(ii) Winner Seattle Evens, Denver 5/6.

It was even closer on the high street this afternoon - best prices were Seattle 11/10, Denver 5/6.
PS My "big" bet was £6 to win £5 and £5.50 to win £5 on Denver - 1.5.
Nareed
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February 1st, 2014 at 9:45:00 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I request that those people who KNOW what is going to happen in the Super Bowl,



Ok, I know one team will make a risky, controversial play. If it succeeds it will be hailed as "the play that won the Super Bowl." If it fails it will be derided as "the play that lost the Super Bowl." Either way 99.99999999+% of people talking about the game on Monday (or late on Sunday, even) will claim that as soon as they saw it going on, they "knew" it was a stroke of genius or a boneheaded mistake.

That's it. That's all I "know."

Oh, and someone will be here bitching about a big bet they lost.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Buzzard
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February 1st, 2014 at 9:50:56 AM permalink
The WIZ went up big time in my book when he posted his 7K losing safety ticket last year. No crybaby him !
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thecesspit
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February 1st, 2014 at 9:59:34 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

" There are factors which lead to a safety that are NOT the same in every game ."

Gee, lets look at the last 2 safeties. A QB is guilty of intentional grounding, Tom Brady, no less.

A team fails on 4th down and as a result 4 plays later the other team takes a safety intentionally.

Would you predict those beforehand as 4% or 8% ? DUH !



I don't know, what -would- you have predicted beforehand? I've seen lots of noise from Buzz about how dumb everyone else is, but not a single comment from Buzz on what he thinks the good bets are.

Easy to be a critic with no opinion. Personally, I'm keeping mine to myself, because there's little point sharing with this sort of commentary. But I did get money down on on others things than the Safety here.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AxiomOfChoice
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February 1st, 2014 at 10:26:56 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

The WIZ went up big time in my book when he posted his 7K losing safety ticket last year. No crybaby him !



Hey, if you want to see losing tickets, I have piles of them that I'll gladly post pictures of.
Buzzard
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February 1st, 2014 at 10:29:08 AM permalink
I have never said anyone was dumb. I have given some people the opportunity to respond to criticism, When someone says 5 safeties in last 7 Super Bowls I merely listed the facts. It was the Wiz who suggested that Larry should make a killing betting if he thought the lines were wrong. Or do you agree that if the Super Bowl is not won by Denver with a 3 point edage, then the line was wrong ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Wizard
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February 1st, 2014 at 1:06:55 PM permalink
The Wynn had no safety and no overtime both at -700 this morning. A couple other great bets over there were:

Under 9.5 punts @ -150
First score touchdown @ -140

I think there is a rich square there betting big. I'm sure I moved these lines but they might move back.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
charliepatrick
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February 1st, 2014 at 1:14:18 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The Wynn had no safety and no overtime both at -700 this morning...

I thought I saw 8/1 safety in a shop today and can see 15/2 overtime on Paddy Power, so either of these at 1/7 sounds a great bet.
michael99000
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February 1st, 2014 at 1:43:37 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard



a rich square . .




The Wynn must love that
LarryS
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February 1st, 2014 at 11:29:13 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

" geez....i would think even buzzard can understand that...without talking about horse races or fairy tales or fried chicken "

When I bet to win, I bet to win. Not because I can stay alive most of the game, or lose or win on one play. I BET TO WIN.

" I would not bet on a prop where I could lose on one common broken play. " Even if was more likely to win ??????????

If so, you are a chump.



Well i gave examples....so now go ahead...give us examples of prop bets that are more likely to win...that could be lost on a broken comon play
bigfoot66
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February 2nd, 2014 at 12:00:51 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The Wynn had no safety and no overtime both at -700 this morning. A couple other great bets over there were:

Under 9.5 punts @ -150
First score touchdown @ -140

I think there is a rich square there betting big. I'm sure I moved these lines but they might move back.



I wish you all the best. Positive Variance tomorrow. I won't say you are due for a game with no safety, but you sure as hell deserve it in my book.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
rudeboyoi
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February 2nd, 2014 at 12:01:22 AM permalink
stations: no safety -675 now
endermike
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February 2nd, 2014 at 6:50:52 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I have lots of prop sheets but they are 8.5" x 14" and my scanner is only 11" long.

In other news, I just added more props to my calculator. The topic of Gambling with an Edge tonight will be my prop picks.



What spread would you input for a game without a home team? (e.g. super bowls, game in London)

One possibility I'm trying is averaging two views. I take the "neutral field line" and the add the 3 points for home field adv to the favorite and record those lines. I then average those lines with the lines from adding 3 points to the underdog.
Buzzard
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February 2nd, 2014 at 11:37:07 AM permalink
Quote: LarryS

Well i gave examples....so now go ahead...give us examples of prop bets that are more likely to win...that could be lost on a broken comon play




This 41 second clip will explain everything, Larry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuDDqU6n4o

At -675 I think no safety is a great bet. But as to your point, which back to back safety do you prefer ?

Sweating the whole Super Bowl game last year that the Raven pass rush might cause a safety, and then when you thought you had the game won, being surprised and watching the Raven punter take an intentional safety with 4 seconds left ?

Or this one that opened the season this year :

The Tennessee Titans got the ball rolling on their first play of the season. Running back Darius Reynaud picked up the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opening kickoff right at the goal line, thinking that he could move back into the end zone and get a touchback. But since he touched the ball before it crossed the plane of the goal line, Reynaud put his team 2-0 in the hole.

Personally I have no preference.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
LarryS
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February 2nd, 2014 at 1:31:59 PM permalink
so you couldnt do it.

All you could do is regurgitate a bet that you lose from an uncommon play.

again what bet where you can lose on one common play do you think is a "good bet"


its uncommon to score a safety. Sometimes you need 2 sacks in a series in order to obtain it. The "on purpose" safety IS RARE. So obviously this bet does not fall into the category where I sayto ignore props where a single common play could blow up your bet.

A single play that can make u win is fine. But what great value did u find that over-rides my advice. Tell us the prop where you could lose it on one singel broken play that is a great value.

wilson running under 36?
wilson longest completion under 36?

go ahead tell me a very good value prop bet that can blow up on one common play

you oppose my philosophy.....so give an example.


meanwhile although I have a small amount on seattle in a parlay, where winnepeg already came in......I am so scared of manning, because he has won a superbowl once befORE....going 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in that post season run,...Impressive.....VERY IMPRESSIVE

We will see if his "success" continues.
Buzzard
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February 2nd, 2014 at 2:13:02 PM permalink
Can anyone interpret what the hell Larry is saying ? ? Each time I read it, I understand it less.

Who gives a shit whether you can win or lose a bet on one play or not ?

BET TO WIN WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE AN EDGE

Not because your money will be in action longer.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
kenarman
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:26:56 PM permalink
Assume that Larry plays the dark side in craps. Otherwise 1 play, bam, your moneys all gone.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
Ibeatyouraces
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:35:02 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
rdw4potus
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:35:28 PM permalink
Oh, my goodness. 12 seconds in, eh? Maybe Archie had some money down on the safety:yes?
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avargov
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:37:01 PM permalink
Yikes!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
pacomartin
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:37:21 PM permalink
I heard that bets were paying 60-1.
Buzzard
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:38:38 PM permalink
LARRY " its uncommon to score a safety. Sometimes you need 2 sacks in a series in order to obtain it. The "on purpose" safety IS RARE. So obviously this bet does not fall into the category where I sayto ignore props where a single common play could blow up your bet." LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
UTHfan
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:47:52 PM permalink
? Is that how +550 works?
AxiomOfChoice
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:49:01 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Can anyone interpret what the hell Larry is saying ? ? Each time I read it, I understand it less.

Who gives a shit whether you can win or lose a bet on one play or not ?

BET TO WIN WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE AN EDGE

Not because your money will be in action longer.



Don't be too hard on him. If it were not for guys like this, there would be no casinos or sportbooks. And that is not a world I want to live in!
AxiomOfChoice
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:50:49 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

There goes that safety bet, lol!



I knew I should have bet more!
wudged
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February 2nd, 2014 at 3:53:56 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I knew I should have bet more!



About an hour ago I almost proposed $50 @ +1000 to you to get my mission nugget money back!
michael99000
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February 2nd, 2014 at 4:17:15 PM permalink
As long as there's not another safety until year 2025, all the NO bettors will get their money back
darthvader
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February 2nd, 2014 at 4:33:10 PM permalink
Unf***ing believable.

3rd year in a row.
2nd time in 3 years that it was the first score.

On a positive note, next year's NO will be -250!
7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
ThatDonGuy
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February 2nd, 2014 at 4:42:04 PM permalink
What was the going line on "there will be a defensive score"?
Mission146
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February 2nd, 2014 at 4:43:15 PM permalink
I'm not sure, is anyone reading this from Vegas right now, in a casino? I'd be interested in seeing what the Vegas odds will be on Denver coming back in the second half to win the game. I have no plans on betting it, just interested in what the Line on that is, regardless of score at that time.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
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February 2nd, 2014 at 4:50:20 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I'm not sure, is anyone reading this from Vegas right now, in a casino? I'd be interested in seeing what the Vegas odds will be on Denver coming back in the second half to win the game. I have no plans on betting it, just interested in what the Line on that is, regardless of score at that time.



According to a post from another forum site, it was Denver +370. (This was when it was 22-0.)
darthvader
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February 2nd, 2014 at 5:11:58 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I'm not sure, is anyone reading this from Vegas right now, in a casino? I'd be interested in seeing what the Vegas odds will be on Denver coming back in the second half to win the game. I have no plans on betting it, just interested in what the Line on that is, regardless of score at that time.



Bovada has it at +550
7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
darthvader
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February 2nd, 2014 at 5:15:33 PM permalink
If Denver does get back into it, the probabilities of a 2 pt conversion just skyrocketed.
7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
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