Super Bowl props 2014
Quote: BuzzardGee, did they have a reply of Peyton being sacked in the end zone for a safety. I must have missed that.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000266805/Mathis-causes-a-safety
There ya go. Looks like that lightning quick release and great offensive line couldn't stop the legendary '13 colts defense
The conditions and players in this particular game lead me to believe a safety is more than 6% likely. Does that mean the Wizards bet is not a good one? I don't know. But the definition of a sharp sports bettor is one who does not bet unless he knows he has an edge.
Quote: BuzzardI repeat, have you seen Peyton sacked in the end zone. Not sacked on the 1 yard line and fumbling ?
Lol. Ironic that you speak of "crocks" and then say something like that. Semantics.
If what happened in that video happens in the Super Bowl, which side gets paid on the YES/NO safety bet ?
You belief does not define an edge. Or to put it an other way. How much money have you bet there will be a safety ?
Remember : Money talks and BULLSHIT walks !
Quote: michael99000Lol. Ironic that you speak of "crocks" and then say something like that. Semantics.
If what happened in that video happens in the Super Bowl, which side gets paid on the YES/NO safety bet ?
I said Peyton had never been sacked in the end zone for a safety. What part of that did you fail to comprehend ?
Quote: michael99000Lol. Ironic that you speak of "crocks" and then say something like that. Semantics.
If what happened in that video happens in the Super Bowl, which side gets paid on the YES/NO safety bet ?
YES, that would be a safety.
The way it works is, you wait until a team has lost three straight games both straight up AND against the spread. At that point you bet on them
to cover the spread (whether they are a dog or favorite) in the 4th game. If they lose you double up on them again in the 5th game, and so on if it comes to a 6th game (which Im told rarely happens) Now that method i just described would be martingaling the team until they cover a spread. I believe you can also
use the less risky Labby Line betting method, but either way the point is that as long as a team does not lose 3 straight games against the spread after
having already lost 3 straight against the spread and straight up, you will profit 1 unit every time this situation arises.
Martingale and the NFL. What could possibly go wrong ?
Quote: Buzzard" But the definition of a sharp sports bettor is one who does not bet unless he knows he has an edge. "
You belief does not define an edge. Or to put it an other way. How much money have you bet there will be a safety ?
Remember : Money talks and BULLSHIT walks !
I said earlier that I believe a true sharp does not bet this prop. Unless of course the odds are so lopsided one way or the other that you have an edge. But I don't think using the 6% figure works.
The only randomized event in a sporting event is the coin toss. Give me +101 or greater on either side and I'll bet that
Quote: BuzzardI repeat, have you seen Peyton sacked in the end zone. Not sacked on the 1 yard line and fumbling ?
Who cares. The result was the same. The effect was the same. Nothing to do with 'best ever line' or 'super fast release'.
Lots of QBs have never been sacked in the end zone for safety. Means little. As it's a rare event.
Quote: michael99000I said earlier that I believe a true sharp does not bet this prop. Unless of course the odds are so lopsided one way or the other that you have an edge. But I don't think using the 6% figure works.
The only randomized event in a sporting event is the coin toss. Give me +101 or greater on either side and I'll bet that
ACTUALLY, this is what you said " Using historical NFL stats to predict the possibility of one type of play occurring doesn't make any sense. "
Quote: Buzzard" Lots of QBs have never been sacked in the end zone for safety. " And Peyton is in of them.
Well whadda you know... Here's the NFLs official description of that play :
3rd and 7 at DEN 9:
(Shotgun) P.Manning sacked at DEN 0 for -9 yards (R.Mathis). FUMBLES (R.Mathis) [R.Mathis], ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The Replay Assistant challenged the safety ruling, and the play was Upheld.
So it was a sack, it was at the 0 yard line, and it was a safety. Hmmmmm.
Quote: Buzzard" Lots of QBs have never been sacked in the end zone for safety. " And Peyton is in of them.
What action will you give for there to be a sack of Manning in the end zone for a safety in the super bowl?
+30,000? :)
Quote: michael99000Well whadda you know... Here's the NFLs official description of that play :
3rd and 7 at DEN 9:
(Shotgun) P.Manning sacked at DEN 0 for -9 yards (R.Mathis). FUMBLES (R.Mathis) [R.Mathis], ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. The Replay Assistant challenged the safety ruling, and the play was Upheld.
So it was a sack, it was at the 0 yard line, and it was a safety. Hmmmmm.
Sack at 0 yard line isn't in endzone. If he hadn't fumbled, ball would have been spotted on the edge of the endzone. No safety.
I am sure Eli will want a piece of this too .
Quote: BuzzardAnother crock. That ranking has to do with win-loss record of opponenet. So if you beat several teams twice it hurts your rating. LOL
Poorly battle tested offense ROFLMAO. Tell that to the NFL teams watching the SB on TV instead of playing it.
Seattle's best chance of a turn over is an interception. When that happens, the guy who intercepted it might score a touchdown , but not a safety !
I always pictured disturbed people to be sitting in front of a terminal and laughing out loud.
But it concerns me that an old timer like you would be rolling on a fllor detatching from your buttocks. Now that is serious stuff.
But I recognize the vernacular, my daughter went through this stage when she was 14.....OMG OMG.
the team denver had the consistant most trouble with was SD, who had the 2nd weakest schedule next to denver.
No safety, no bet .
Quote: BuzzardWilling to make heads up bet, Bronco defense versus Seattle defense, who forces the safety !
No safety, no bet .
No action from me. I think that's a fair bet... and don't need to push with Buzz again.
Yeah those comparison are always so valid. Team A beat Team B by 7, Team B beats C by 23, therefore team A is 30 points better than Team C, etc.
Just how many AFC west teams Played NFC west teams, so someone can make a comparison ?
Oh, I just remembered ZERO
Quote: thecesspitNo action from me. I think that's a fair bet... and don't need to push with Buzz again.
Well in the face of that GREAT Seattle defense, I might be taking the worst of it. But then again, Bullshit talk and money walks.
I don't expect to get any action !
Quote: BuzzardWilling to make heads up bet, Bronco defense versus Seattle defense, who forces the safety !
No safety, no bet .
Odds?
Quote: BuzzardWhere's all the other experts that know more than the Wiz about prop bets ? Oh, I forgot WALKING !
What does your proposed bet have to do with the accuracy of the Wizard's lines?
Quote: BuzzardWhere's all the other experts that know more than the Wiz about prop bets ? Oh, I forgot WALKING !
How do you know anything about what anyone on here knows about prop bets,
be it in general or vs. the wizards knowledge?
Quote: BuzzardJust keep on walking !
I don't really know what this means or understand what this is a reference to.
However, your proposed bet sounds interesting. Is it still being offered?
Quote: BuzzardGee Larry, you are so much sharper than all those poor suckers making Denver the favorite. My goodness, how did they ever get to the Super Bowl ? Larry dispense those pills, self medicating is just not working !
those are the same suckers that made new england 14 point diogs against STLouis.....a high powered offense against a superior defense. The offense got the nog
those are the same people that made undefeated NE 3 point faves over the highppowered Giants defense
whats your point
offenses win regular season games...defenses win championships
Quote: LarrySthose are the same suckers that made new england 14 point diogs against STLouis.....a high powered offense against a superior defense. The offense got the nog
those are the same people that made undefeated NE 3 point faves over the highppowered Giants defense
whats your point
offenses win regular season games...defenses win championships
We will see in 6 days. Denver all the way!!!!!!!
Over the past 10 seasons, Super Bowl teams have each scored 25.3 points per game, compared to 20.5 points per game during the regular season, with champions averaging 31.6 points per game. (Kind of seems like an argument for a new cliché: OFFENSE. WINS. CHAMPIONSHIPS!)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI don't really know what this means or understand what this is a reference to.
However, your proposed bet sounds interesting. Is it still being offered?
Of course it is. But I was kinda hoping some self-proclaimed experts would apply.
Quote: michael99000How do you know anything about what anyone on here knows about prop bets,
be it in general or vs. the wizards knowledge?
I know Wiz had the balls to show his $7,000 losing ticket on a safety bet. I know this statement is asinine :
" Using historical NFL stats to predict the possibility of one type of play occurring doesn't make any sense. "
Quote: Buzzard" the team denver had the consistant most trouble with was SD, who had the 2nd weakest schedule next to Denver. "
Yeah those comparison are always so valid. Team A beat Team B by 7, Team B beats C by 23, therefore team A is 30 points better than Team C, etc.
Just how many AFC west teams Played NFC west teams, so someone can make a comparison ?
Oh, I just remembered ZERO
I didnt mention team C
but thats ok.....when you recover from a stroke those things happen
The number of Super Bowl champs with a top 10 offense? Thirty-eight. And a top 3 defense? Twenty.
Quote: LarrySI didnt mention team C
but thats ok.....when you recover from a stroke those things happen
Gee Larry, with so many stupid bookies you should be RICH. Just keep dispensing pills and limit
your medical advice to caffeine.
Quote: BuzzardOf course it is. But I was kinda hoping some self-proclaimed experts would apply.
I am interested in this. How much action were you looking to get down?
Just to be clear -- no safety = no action. What if there are multiple safeties? Are we betting on the team to get the first safety, or the team to get the most safeties?
Quote: BuzzardHad to confuse the issue with FACTS :
The number of Super Bowl champs with a top 10 offense? Thirty-eight. And a top 3 defense? Twenty.
Granny Smiths and Cox's pippins.
To comment on the7000 bet..i am assuming to pay 1000...the bad thing on a bet like that is now 7 more equivalent bets in a row must be won in order to break even.
I saw something similar at the meadowlands racetrack around 1996. There was a 5 horse race during the week with an extreme fave called cape matteras
A winning ticket is guarunteed to get a 5 percent payback minimum. A 2 dollar bet will pay 2.10 minimum
Someone put 100k on the face in a 5 horse race to show...the horse broke down in the stretch and never raced again. The big bettor stood to win 5k. Now he has to win 20 races like that in order to break even for that loss
the 2 dollar show paid 120.00, I remeMber this because i had a 50 dollar ticket to show for the winning horse. i went to the window expecting around 60 dollars not knowing about that 100k bet,
what do you think
Which will be more
largest negative play +105
margin of victory -125
(kicking and punting plays dont count)
this is a game with a 2 point spread. What is the average sack...maybe 5 yards? Is it far fetched to see a 7-8 yard loss?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI am interested in this. How much action were you looking to get down?
Just to be clear -- no safety = no action. What if there are multiple safeties? Are we betting on the team to get the first safety, or the team to get the most safeties?
Multiple safeties will be no action. No safety equals no action.
I was very interested to read your fair prices for the bets you posted the other day, and I would like to see the additional ones you have.
I don't think anyone intended to sh#t on your good deed... or even if someone did, he is vastly outnumbered by the appreciative readers.
And back then minimum payout was $2.20 Referred to as instant 10% percent. Betters were called bridge jumpers . And rightfully so.
Quote: LarryS
largest negative play +105
margin of victory -125
(kicking and punting plays dont count)
this is a game with a 2 point spread. What is the average sack...maybe 5 yards? Is it far fetched to see a 7-8 yard loss?
I just looked at the Den/Bal season opener, biggest loss in that game was two yards on a run/pass play, it happened a few times. The two teams combined for 76 points, though.
Make you a deal if you're actually interested in this bet. We'll look at every regular season game, play-by-play, I'll take Denver if you take Seattle and we'll both post the results. Sample size is probably a bit too small to be really meaningful, but it will give a general idea.
i found box scores where sacks are listed....but where do you find individual run plays that were a loss...nevermind i found what i needed
What we'll need to do is compare the (mean) average longest yards lost to the average Points Differential for all Lines in which the Spread was less than, I'd say 4, unless you like 3.5 better. We could go 2.5, or less, but I'd rather err in favor of having more samples...and the Line might get pushed to DEN -3.5 by then if the weather looks okay.
