Jaguars money line
By the way, the last spread this big in the NFL was on the Dec 4, 2011 game between the Colts and Patriots, who were a 20.5-point favorite. They won by only 7.
Quote: AlanGood Luck!
There's no such thing as luck.
Quote: Mission146I wish you positive Variance!
Thanks. I hope I can find a good line somewhere.
I have the money line for the Jaguars at +1675 which already is a good bet. Of course that in case of a win they will automatically cover the spread as underdogs.
What if I parlay that with the spread and get 1675*1,90? Ain't it a huge edge? What am I missing?
Please, don't be harsh at me :)
Quote: aluisioI have a silly question, from a newbie in sports betting:
I have the money line for the Jaguars at +1675 which already is a good bet. Of course that in case of a win they will automatically cover the spread as underdogs.
What if I parlay that with the spread and get 1675*1,90? Ain't it a huge edge? What am I missing?
Please, don't be harsh at me :)
Most books I've seen won't let you parlay two related events together.
Quote: WizardThanks. I hope I can find a good line somewhere.
Can you do 5Dimes? +2250, according to:
www.sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds
It happens in college games much more often than NFL
Quote: michael99000What would a 3 team moneyline parlay pay? Jaguars, colts, raiders.
Jags at +1840
Colts +500
Raiders +1190
$10 pays ~$15,000
Anything more check the max payout for parlays...
Quote: cclub79That's a correlated parlay and is not permitted at most books.
Saying "most books" implies there is an exception to the rule. Will someone please tell me the book that does allow this?
Quote: michael99000Most books do allow you to parlay a spread and total in the same game, so long as the point spread isn't equal to 40% or more of the over/under line
It happens in college games much more often than NFL
Louisville/FIU is one to watch this weekend (LOU -41, Total 56). Sometimes you can get them in.
I mean jacksonville lost to the second worst team in football on the road last week, and seattle has not lost at hme in over a year, and just soundly beat a top 5 team last week without any real lasting injuries occuring.
I can definately see a non cover, but an out and out loss on a field that has one of the best home crowd advantages in theleague....
i hate throwing away money.
in some games you can play the"what if game". What if seatles QB gets injured on the first play?.....still they win. What if seatles QB and running back get injured on the first play?......seatle wins 3-0 in overtime. I really dont see a scenario where seatle loses.
other than pointing to a big return...someone has to point to a scenario to where jacksonville can win before I would put a dollar on it.
But then again I dont buy lottery tickets
At plus 2250, you have to look at the break even point!
(2250 * x) - (100 * (1-x)) = 0
x = .0425531914893617
In other words, if you think JAX has a better than 4.25532% shot of winning, you have the best of it.
4.25532% chance?
Yeah, they suck, but they're still a professional football team!
Quote: Mission146Yeah, they suck, but they're still a professional football team!
Yup. Stranger things have happened than the Jags winning that game. I claim they have a 7.6% chance to win.
Assuming I can get a bet down, and they win, the WoV dinner will be on me!
Quote: WizardYup. Stranger things have happened than the Jags winning that game. I claim they have a 7.6% chance to win.
Assuming I can get a bet down, and they win, the WoV dinner will be on me!
Absent extremely compelling circumstances, I find myself hard-pressed to give a team less than a 10% shot of winning any particular game. I'm certain that your 7.6% is based on tons of data, but I just like to call a team at least 10% to win any given game.
Quote: strictlyAPDid I miss something I thought the thread opened with wizard saying he got in at plus 1250?
That was my fair money line, with no advantage.
Quote: WizardThat was my fair money line, with no advantage.
The Jags are staying out west this week. The web says in California. I would assume it depends on the housing, food, wine, and women available in said location.
Housing.....do they have to share a room with another player?, can women be brought(bought) in?
Food.....team meals or out on the town, room service, etc..
Wine....beer, wine, and whiskey to go along with poker games and Cuban cigars?
You can only practice so many hours each day.
Week 14, 1995 season. Dallas is favored by 17 and loses to Washington 24-17
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199512030dal.htm
So if the jags pull this one out on Sunday, it would be a new record.
Betting odds were 42-1 , meaning a moneyline of -4200.
Some books offered a line as high as 95-1 on Douglas winning specifically by a KO, which he did.
Off the top of my head I can't recall any other single game or single match upsets greater than 20/1
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199212060buf.htm
The line was also 17.
Quote: michael99000Among all bettable sporting events, the biggest upset I can ever recall was Buster Douglas defeating Mike Tyson in 1990.
Betting odds were 42-1 , meaning a moneyline of -4200.
Some books offered a line as high as 95-1 on Douglas winning specifically by a KO, which he did.
Off the top of my head I can't recall any other single game or single match upsets greater than 20/1
Do you recall, know, or have access to the odds when Leon Spinks beat Ali? Just curious, thanks.
Quote: NokTangDo you recall, know, or have access to the odds when Leon Spinks beat Ali? Just curious, thanks.
Leon was an 8 to 1 underdog, according to this link, and another post I read:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1119942/
Quote: NokTangDo you recall, know, or have access to the odds when Leon Spinks beat Ali? Just curious, thanks.
Only one sportsbook in Vegas offered wagering on that spinks vs Ali fight, and Ali was an 8-1 favorite.
When they rematched, Ali was a 5-1 fav
As for this thread, I hope that Mizzou alum (my alma mater) Blaine Gabbert has a monster game and wins the Wiz some money!!!
This game has 35-0 written all over it. Parlaying SEA - 19.5 and u41 seems like a really good play. How many pts will the Jaguars score in this one? 24-3 wins that parlay, as does any realistic combination. If the Jags score 17 points, which seems impossible, it could still go under.
Getting greedier, tease SEA and under with Pats -7.5 and MN -6.5 for 6.5 pts, unless you think CLE and/or TB can pull off a ridiculous upset.
Because Ontario forces you to parlay 3 bets together, it didn't want to take on the risk of the Seattle game as there isn't enough juice for them (their juice is at least 20%).
Quote: IbeatyouracesJust don't bet on safties :-)
There were 4 safeties in the NFL in the entire 2012 season--this year there have been 6 already...
Quote: WizardI see the point spread in the Jaguars/Seahawks games is -19. I put a fair money line on the Jaguars at +1220. The best you can get in Vegas right now is +1,000, but many books don't like to release money lines on lopsided games until Friday, if they do at all. At Pinnacle you can get +2000, which I think is a great bet. Too bad they don't take US players.
By the way, the last spread this big in the NFL was on the Dec 4, 2011 game between the Colts and Patriots, who were a 20.5-point favorite. They won by only 7.
Wizard,
I just don't know how you can calculate a fair money line on this game.
I know you have a system that you don't want to share, but my point is, if there has never been a game with this big of a spread, how is there enough data to know whether or not this is a good bet?
Quote: FinsRuleif there has never been a game with this big of a spread, how is there enough data to know whether or not this is a good bet?
I just go off the fact that the point spread is 19. My philosophy is that I assume the market is efficient when it comes to betting against the spread and total, since those get the vast majority of action. My NFL page says the fair line for a 19-point underdog is +1222. That is found by using a statistic technique to draw a curve through this graph, never going below zero.
It's a letdown game for Seattle coming off the big Monday night game against their division rivals and defending NFC champs. On top of that they recieved national TV exposure which is a rare occurance for the Seahawks. Also, the Seahawks next game is at the undefeated (at least for now) Texans. The game has trap written all over it. The Jaguars while putrid from an offensive standpoint, are about in the middle of the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 23.5 ppg. So, to spot Jacksonville 19.5 points seems a bit much. I love that the Jags stayed out west, I think that will help them this weekend and they very well may catch the Seahawks looking past this matchup.
Quote: FinsRuleWizard,
I just don't know how you can calculate a fair money line on this game.
I know you have a system that you don't want to share, but my point is, if there has never been a game with this big of a spread, how is there enough data to know whether or not this is a good bet?
There have been many games with bigger point spreads than this if you go way back. Patriots were more than 20 point favorites recently.
If you look at college data, there are games every week with big spreads. The line in the Florida State game this week is now up to 60.
Stay away.
Quote: DRichThere have been many games with bigger point spreads than this if you go way back. Patriots were more than 20 point favorites recently.
If you look at college data, there are games every week with big spreads. The line in the Florida State game this week is now up to 60.
Yes, so tell me what a fair money line is when the spread is 60.... (I know that a book doesn't offer a line on that anyway)
I'd say probably around 500-1, right? So if a book offered 1000-1 does that mean you have to take it? The Jags/Seahawks game is a less extreme example, but proves my point. Perhaps a fair line is 15-1 on the Jaguars, but I don't think that necessarily means that if it's 20-1, you should bet. When is the advantage enough to make it worth it?
Quote: FinsRuleYes, so tell me what a fair money line is when the spread is 60....
271,218.
I recall a 40-point underdog in college football winning.
A favorable line is a favorable line, and if you could make this exact bet at +2250 over multiple games, you'd only need the Jags to win one game out of 23 to have come out ahead on the overall play.
If the Jags played this game against the Seahawks 23 times, is there anyone who maintains that the Seahawks would beat them in every single one of those games? The Jaguars would honestly fail to win one time in 23 chances?
I understand that the Jags are not going to play this game against the Seahawks 23 times, but that's the point, if you have enough money to bet these sort of things for your betting level, to weather the Variance, then you need to win very, very few to come out ahead.
Imagine if I set up a Craps Table where I paid 36-to-1 on Midnight, is there anyone who wouldn't play that bet at a 2.78% advantage on every bet? That's the point, you won't win them all, in fact, you'll lose far more individual bets than you win, but in the long run, a mathematical advantage is exactly that.
Quote: Wizard271,218.
I recall a 40-point underdog in college football winning.
I think it was the Michigan / App State game. Was that a real answer or just a joke? 271.218?
Quote: Mission146Betting at an advantage is betting at an advantage, and I think the main point that is being overlooked is the fact that most people seem to be looking at this as just one game, SEA v. JAX. The thing is, it's not one game, it's a strategy...and a long-term one.
A favorable line is a favorable line, and if you could make this exact bet at +2250 over multiple games, you'd only need the Jags to win one game out of 23 to have come out ahead on the overall play.
If the Jags played this game against the Seahawks 23 times, is there anyone who maintains that the Seahawks would beat them in every single one of those games? The Jaguars would honestly fail to win one time in 23 chances?
I understand that the Jags are not going to play this game against the Seahawks 23 times, but that's the point, if you have enough money to bet these sort of things for your betting level, to weather the Variance, then you need to win very, very few to come out ahead.
Imagine if I set up a Craps Table where I paid 36-to-1 on Midnight, is there anyone who wouldn't play that bet at a 2.78% advantage on every bet? That's the point, you won't win them all, in fact, you'll lose far more individual bets than you win, but in the long run, a mathematical advantage is exactly that.
The whole difference is that one is a mathematical certainty, and the other is based on a prediction/supposition.
In all seriousness, I could see the Jaguars losing all 23 times. I believe the Wizard is right and the value is on the Jaguars, I just don't know if I'm sold on how much value there actually is.
Quote: FinsRuleI think it was the Michigan / App State game. Was that a real answer or just a joke? 271.218?
Stanford also beat USC about five years ago as a 41 point dog.
