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aluisio
aluisio
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October 10th, 2013 at 9:04:07 AM permalink
Is it really pick'em between the giants and the bears?

EDIT: disconsider it please... game is today LOL
No bounce, no play.
terapined
terapined
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October 10th, 2013 at 9:20:04 AM permalink
I watched the PBS documentary League of Denial.
Wow. It was riviting and so sad. I'm still a football fan but its sad what is happenning to these old players.
Due to what they did to their bodies playing football, they expect physical problems later in life but not brain damage that drives them to kill themselves.
Maybe the game has to change, maybe get rid of the helmets. Rugy Players dont lead with the head like football players do.
This should be must viewing for any parents that have children.
The Doctors on this show examined a high school football player and a college football players brains that committed suicide.
The Doctors expected to find normal brains due to the age. They found brain damage atributed to football. shocking and so so sad.
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
LarryS
LarryS
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October 10th, 2013 at 9:54:29 PM permalink
So sad???? I would guess most sports fans dont give a crap.

Did you ever see someone pay 70 dollars for a pay per view boxing match, see a boxer get hit in the head and go down in the first 30 seconds.......

assuming no bets are on either player///are the viewers yelling for tthe boxer to get up ( the boxer does have a concussion at this point)....are they screaming for a doctor to take him aside and do thorough concussion tests? Nope ..they want the guy to get up and get hit in the head a few more times for their entertainment.

And if you have a bet on the fighter that went down in the first 30 seconds.....are you really caring about brain function if the fight continues? you want your 70 dollars worth. You want to see the boxer on wobbly legs getting repeatedly hit in the head but not go down.....because "he can really take a punch" Most importantly you want to win your bet

Alot of boxing fans are also football fans. If people dont really care about concussions of people beung hit directly in the head without a helmet.....who really cares about helmet wearing football players.

the media makes a big deal out of it. But individuals couldnt care less.

( by the way...when I use the word "you"....I am using the general "you:....no one specfic.)
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 12th, 2013 at 2:32:45 PM permalink
On the Insert Key - it's handy for some things, like when you really do actually want to write over something. I use it for replacing numbers in Word documents sometimes, like when I'm using the same file over and over and I used to have 12,357 widgets and now have 13,459 of them. Easiest replacement is to place cursor before the 1, hit the insert button, type, and hit the button again.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 12th, 2013 at 2:36:19 PM permalink
Carolina at Minnesota is tough this week. Sounds like Peterson is going to play. He's either going to be totally distracted, or he's going to need to be dragged down by 11 people on every down. His mental state totally swings that game...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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October 12th, 2013 at 3:04:51 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Carolina at Minnesota is tough this week. Sounds like Peterson is going to play. He's either going to be totally distracted, or he's going to need to be dragged down by 11 people on every down. His mental state totally swings that game...



They're my team, so I'm betting on them (picked before the news really hit "cuz they're my team", not because of it), but you're right; impossible to tell. However, my guess is that the whole team will attempt to use this awful situation to focus themselves and support AP with a ferocious win.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
terapined
terapined
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October 12th, 2013 at 3:40:11 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Carolina at Minnesota is tough this week. Sounds like Peterson is going to play. He's either going to be totally distracted, or he's going to need to be dragged down by 11 people on every down. His mental state totally swings that game...



It is going to tough for Peterson. But then again, he never really got a chance to bond with his child, in fact the 1st time he ever saw the child was in the hospital just before he died. The mother thought someone else was the father and Peterson wasn't aware he had a child till recently. Regardless, its a tough situation to deal with.

Been doing terrible in this competition. sucking big time.
So gonna change it up, instead of trying to pick winners as a gambler who makes picks without emotion, picking winners as a fan with emotion that's rooting for a team.
For instance I think the Eagles will beat the Bucs. I picked the Bucs since I'm in Tampa and want to root for my home team.
Lets see where this gets me.
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
Mission146
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October 13th, 2013 at 12:50:17 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 6 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post278482

Skipping this week are FRGamble and NCFatCat.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
terapined
terapined
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October 13th, 2013 at 5:14:06 AM permalink
Here's the rundown on Group picks week 6. 1 vote for pick, 2 votes confidence

Most Love
Eagles 16
Saints 15
Colts 13

Least Love
49ers 1
Bucs 2 Steelers 2 Broncos 2 Pats 2 Chargers 2

Most action
Jags/Broncos 25
Saints/Pats 24

Least action
Steelers/Jets 7
Cards/49ers 10

Most lopsided action
Eagles 16 Bucs 2
Saints 15 Pats 2

Closest to even action on team picks
Rams 6 Texans 4
Seahawks 5 Titans 3

Notable action
Broncos/jags over 10
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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October 13th, 2013 at 1:19:40 PM permalink
Boy, sentiment is not the basis for a good bet. Live and learn (actually, I knew this). 1-4 with only Jax to bring me up...yikes. Better variance for the rest of you than I had...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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October 13th, 2013 at 1:44:34 PM permalink
Slightly better week at the halfway point. Collectively we're 67/111 (two picks for confidence) or 60.4%. Good stuff.

The Wizard had a 5/6 week to get back on track.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
boymimbo
boymimbo
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October 13th, 2013 at 6:22:48 PM permalink
Rats. A perfect week for StrictlyAP puts him in the stratosphere at 22/30 and 73.3%. I had a crappy week at 1/5.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Buzzard
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October 13th, 2013 at 6:49:22 PM permalink
3 and 2 overall just under the 600 that will win. slow but steady.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
EdCollins
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October 13th, 2013 at 6:54:55 PM permalink
For those using my grading program, be advised that three of Vendman1's picks, as he entered them, need to be edited before grading.

WSH over 52 (confidence)
PHI 0
JAK +26.5

The program doesn't understand WSH. (Wash is okay.)
The program doesn't understand PHI. (Phil is okay.)
The program doesn't understand JAK. (Jack is okay.)

The program is "smart"... but not that smart. :)
thecesspit
thecesspit
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:12:09 PM permalink
I make it made 5-0 as well. I wasn't sure about any though for a confidence pick.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Buzzard
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:18:28 PM permalink
Looks like you and AP aren't going away anytime soon. DAMN.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
thecesspit
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:26:19 PM permalink
You got another 11 weeks for me to stop riding the positive variance wave...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
beachbumbabs
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:49:32 PM permalink
well done, cess!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
thecesspit
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October 13th, 2013 at 9:58:43 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

well done, cess!



Thank you.

I was so unsure, I only put money on a two team parlay this week...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
vendman1
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October 14th, 2013 at 6:15:47 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

For those using my grading program, be advised that three of Vendman1's picks, as he entered them, need to be edited before grading.

WSH over 52 (confidence)
PHI 0
JAK +26.5

The program doesn't understand WSH. (Wash is okay.)
The program doesn't understand PHI. (Phil is okay.)
The program doesn't understand JAK. (Jack is okay.)

The program is "smart"... but not that smart. :)



Sorry to mess up your cool spreadsheet Ed....I will properly format my teams from now on. :)
Malaru
Malaru
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October 14th, 2013 at 6:56:17 AM permalink
I got to wait till tonight to find out if I go with just 1 loss again this week or if it will be two- I was soo close to being 4-0 right now waiting for monday night.. and then Tom just had to make a TD pass with 5 seconds to go. -head desk- - I have a feeling Ill be 4-1 this week and still hanging around too... if I can do just 1 loss every week Ill stay in the running. :D .. 4 out of sick weeks with 1 loss! woot!
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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October 15th, 2013 at 7:21:11 AM permalink
5-1 and losing ground to the leaders. I saw that going differently...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Mission146
Mission146
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October 15th, 2013 at 3:14:18 PM permalink
Greetings!

The updated Results and Standings have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post279508

The standings are above.

1.) We had an excellent week, and by we, I mean everyone who is not me with our Regular Picks going 97-83 for .539. That wouldn't have qualified as an, "Excellent week," last year, but the times have changed! Confidence Picks we're slightly improved at 9-11 for .450. Overall, we performed at .530.

2.) This brings our overall record on Regular Picks to 473-566 for .455, and Confidence Picks to 55-70 for .440. The cumulative record is now 528-636 for .454, which is a huge improvement.

3.) We pick, on average, 194 games per week. If we managed a record of 151-43 for .778, we'd end up at 679-679 for .500 overall.

Let's do it!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
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October 15th, 2013 at 3:36:06 PM permalink
Whoops. In the updated standings, I'm listed twice.

(Probably because when I messaged you with my picks, and listed my name above my picks as I usually do, I probably entered it as Ed Collins instead of EdCollins.)
Mission146
Mission146
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October 15th, 2013 at 3:39:30 PM permalink
Cool, I just fixed it on my file.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
thecesspit
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October 15th, 2013 at 3:46:28 PM permalink
More importantly, I am still above the Buzzard.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Buzzard
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October 15th, 2013 at 3:48:09 PM permalink
Way to go Strictly AP and Cesspit.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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October 15th, 2013 at 4:13:20 PM permalink
Nice Job, Strictly AP and Cesspit! And Buzzzzzz.....well done, holding your own.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Buzzard
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October 15th, 2013 at 4:24:57 PM permalink
I still think .600 will win it all.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
thecesspit
thecesspit
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October 15th, 2013 at 5:09:06 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I still think .600 will win it all.



.600 on 80 picks (no confidence) is a 2.8% chance of making (48-32).. 50 players, so one or two players will make it .600 -IF- it's a coin flip league.

Its not, there's a small element of skill, plus the variance of the confidence picks, so I suggest that the winning score will be about 0.625.

Wanna take an over under on the winning score at 0.612? :D
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Buzzard
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October 15th, 2013 at 5:14:58 PM permalink
I will take this under even at this late date.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
miplet
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October 15th, 2013 at 5:15:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Hello friends. Can someone tell me how many standard deviations I am south of a random guesser? I'm 5 up, 24 down. I am very consistent, by the way. I can be counted on to get one of my 5 picks correct each and every week. Fortunately for whomever I will end up paying, that pick is never my confidence pick.

As an aid to the forum members, i am pre-announcing my confidence pick this week as the Bengals.


You only lost 1 last week. Are you going to pre-announce your confidence pick this week? ;+)
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
thecesspit
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October 15th, 2013 at 5:19:06 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

I will take this under even at this late date.



I'll take $10 with you then :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Buzzard
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October 15th, 2013 at 5:47:57 PM permalink
I may have to file a CTR after week 17.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Malaru
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October 15th, 2013 at 8:23:08 PM permalink
Mission- You have Ed Collins listed twice

Greetings!

The updated Standings are as follows:


EdCollins 12 15 44.44% $28.89

Ed Collins 1 5 16.67% $56.67

we dont mind taking $85 from him instead of just $57 though. :)
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
Mission146
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October 15th, 2013 at 8:26:31 PM permalink
Quote: Malaru

Mission- You have Ed Collins listed twice

Greetings!

The updated Standings are as follows:


EdCollins 12 15 44.44% $28.89

Ed Collins 1 5 16.67% $56.67

we dont mind taking $85 from him instead of just $57 though. :)



Thanks! I have it fixed on my file, now. It'll be reflected in the Standings after this week.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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October 16th, 2013 at 6:21:19 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

You only lost 1 last week. Are you going to pre-announce your confidence pick this week? ;+)



Sure. My confidence picks are now perfect at 0 - 6! I'm going Cowboys this week. I wonder if my announcing this will move the Vegas line?
terapined
terapined
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October 16th, 2013 at 9:28:51 AM permalink
Mission-also noticed another small error, I'm right above you on the list totally sucking at 34.48% down $38.85. You are at 33.33% but money wise just currently down $25.00. Getting the admin discount :-)

On another note, 1-4. pretty sad. I tried to change things up last week by picking teams as a fan instead of a gambler. What am I thinking? Picked Bucs over Eagles due to living in Tampa even though I know Bucs suck. I'm hopeless.
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
Mission146
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October 16th, 2013 at 9:36:24 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Mission-also noticed another small error, I'm right above you on the list totally sucking at 34.48% down $38.85. You are at 33.33% but money wise just currently down $25.00. Getting the admin discount :-)

On another note, 1-4. pretty sad. I tried to change things up last week by picking teams as a fan instead of a gambler. What am I thinking? Picked Bucs over Eagles due to living in Tampa even though I know Bucs suck. I'm hopeless.



I'm getting the Commissioner discount, I throw a fixed $25 into the prize pool every year and I cannot possibly win. The winner gets $25 from me, and in the unlikely event that I did win, second place would simply get $25 from me. Thus far, it seems that the fixed loss may work to my benefit this year, but last year, I would have lost far less than $25.

I had a 1-4 week myself. I took the Saints over the Patriots because I thought it was the right play, so I didn't make the homer decision. If you'll believe me, I actually thought about picking two Over/Unders this week, and would have won on both, but I never pick those...so I didn't.

We'll see what next week holds, like I said, regression to the mean is a beautiful thing, when you're below the mean!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 16th, 2013 at 9:55:36 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 7 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post280013
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Malaru
Malaru
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October 17th, 2013 at 6:53:56 PM permalink
interesting- only 1 line is +/- 1.5 or less and its evens.
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
Malaru
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October 17th, 2013 at 6:55:03 PM permalink
Also I got a control/consistancy question- why do you not get the lines from the same site every week? I noticed the source this time is diffrent then at least a couple of the weeks in the past- wouldnt it be more fair to keep the source controlled or are there large variables in when the lines are available?
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
Mission146
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October 18th, 2013 at 8:44:19 AM permalink
Quote: Malaru

Also I got a control/consistancy question- why do you not get the lines from the same site every week? I noticed the source this time is diffrent then at least a couple of the weeks in the past- wouldnt it be more fair to keep the source controlled or are there large variables in when the lines are available?



The source of the Lines is neither fair or unfair provided that all Members are picking from the same Lines. This week's source, www.vegasinsider.com was also intended to be the source for ALL of the Lines, but I had significant difficulty accessing it the first few week and called an audible with Pinnacle.

In any event, as long as everyone is picking from the same Lines on a week-to-week basis, then all remains fair.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 18th, 2013 at 8:45:27 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 7 Reminders have now been sent.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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October 19th, 2013 at 11:09:22 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 7 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post280965

Boz, Miplet, BeachBumBabs and NCFatCat all appear to be skipping this week.

Just for the record, DEN -6.5 would have replaced CLE +10, but I went with CLE.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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October 20th, 2013 at 7:57:17 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

The Week 7 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post280965

Boz, Miplet, BeachBumBabs and NCFatCat all appear to be skipping this week.

Just for the record, DEN -6.5 would have replaced CLE +10, but I went with CLE.



Not by choice: you should see my keyboard-face this morning, Mission. I went from very busy to too busy the last couple of days and wiped out. So I'm 0-5.

The plan was to learn something about lines by using the available interval to compare them and make picks to my advantage last night. I know better than to wait to do something; it gets missed. C'est la guerre.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
thecesspit
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October 20th, 2013 at 8:43:47 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Not by choice: you should see my keyboard-face this morning, Mission. I went from very busy to too busy the last couple of days and wiped out. So I'm 0-5.

The plan was to learn something about lines by using the available interval to compare them and make picks to my advantage last night. I know better than to wait to do something; it gets missed. C'est la guerre.



Remember you get one bye week. So if this is your first missed week, you go 0-0.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Buzzard
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October 20th, 2013 at 8:51:00 AM permalink
Look on the bright side Babs : 0-0 is .500 Better than your current record.

Cesspit , that red dot on you forehead is my laser picks today.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
miplet
miplet
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Joined: Dec 1, 2009
October 20th, 2013 at 8:54:40 AM permalink
All the cool people are skipping this week. I overslept yesterday and simply forgot to get my picks in. Setting an alarm for the rest of the season.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
EdCollins
EdCollins
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Joined: Oct 21, 2011
October 20th, 2013 at 10:33:15 AM permalink
Unfortunately, as I recall, Babs was forced to take a bye earlier in the season so I THINK that means she must take an 0-5 this week. (If so, sorry Babs.)

For the few of you using my grading program, I discovered a bug this morning when grading the week 7 picks. (You can grade the picks even before the games have started. Doing so will look for potential conflicts and errors in the picks.)

(1) The program wasn't smart enough to recognize three of JW17's picks. (DEN, NE, and Den.) It needs at least at least "Denv" for Denver and at least "New E" for New England.

I knew of this, of course, but the program really should know what those picks are. So I fixed it by adding a special check to look for those abbreviated team names. The program also now recognizes JAX for Jacksonville, Wsh for Washington, PHI for Philadelphia, and a few others.


(2) More importantly however, the program CRASHED when it came across a conflict involving CARdinals and CARolina. This is fixed.


The most recent version is now, 1.52. This copy is complete with everyone's picks thru Week 7, as well as the NFL game scores up until this moment. It can be found here:

http://www.edcollins.com/wov_nfl_football_contest_calculator_version_1.52.xlsm
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