Thoroughbred Picks

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 21st, 2013 at 8:04:49 AM permalink

YTD Results:
Alternate -$186.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$114.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-1293.4
Show Bets -$75.00

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 07/21/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Son of Pearl
3 Big Bad Mike
4 Perfect Wisdom
5 Super Soldier
6 0
7 My Contender
8 Chica Bonita
9 0

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 25th, 2013 at 3:57:34 AM permalink

07/21/13 Results:
Race # Alternate To Win
1 0
2 Son of Pearl -$10.00 5th
3 Big Bad Mike -$10.00 5th
4 Perfect Wisdom -$10.00 5th
5 Super Soldier -$10.00 3rd
6 0
7 My Contender -$10.00 5th
8 Chica Bonita $97.00 1st
9 0
10
11
12
Total $47.00

Trifecta Net -$23.60

Show Bets -$11.00

YTD Results:
Alternate -$139.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$161.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-1317
Show Bets -$86.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 25th, 2013 at 3:58:43 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 07/25/13
Race # Alternate
1 Richieslildarling
2 Shedrow Hero
3 Collin's Smile
4 0
5 Endless Drive
6 Pedrolino
7 One for Biscuit
8 Unbridled Vicar
9 Piralu

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 26th, 2013 at 6:34:50 AM permalink

Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 07/25/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Richieslildarling $29.00 1st
2 Shedrow Hero -$10.00 8th
3 Collin's Smile -$10.00 7th
4 0
5 Endless Drive -$10.00 5th
6 Pedrolino -$10.00 7th
7 One for Biscuit -$10.00 3rd
8 Unbridled Vicar -$10.00 4th
9 Piralu -$10.00
10
11
12
Total -$41.00

Trifecta Net -$640.15

Show Bets -$43.00

YTD Results:
Alternate -$180.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$190.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-1957.15
Show Bets -$129.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 26th, 2013 at 7:28:37 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 07/26/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Sporting Gent
3 Midnight Lace
4 0
5 0
6 Brick House Road
7 Retail Reger
8 Oskee Wow Wow
9 0

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 26th, 2013 at 1:47:40 PM permalink

Midnight Lace was a scratch in the 3rd. That pick is replaced by Don't Insist.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 27th, 2013 at 7:02:56 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 07/26/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 0
2 Sporting Gent $0.00 scratched
3 Don't Insist -$10.00 4th
4 0
5 0
6 Brick House Road -$10.00 6th
7 Retail Reger -$10.00 7th
8 Oskee Wow Wow -$10.00 2nd
9 0
10
11
12
Total -$40.00

Trifecta Net -$140.70

Show Bets -$25.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 27th, 2013 at 7:04:41 AM permalink

Since this has gone badly so far, I'm changing the algorithm for today. I only was able to do a short period of back testing, but am going to go ahead and make the change anyway.

YTD Results:
Alternate -$220.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$150.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-2097.85
Show Bets -$154.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 27th, 2013 at 8:08:11 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 07/27/13
Race # Alternate
1 Dragonfly Chaser
2 0
3 0
4 Blue Forty
5 Quelch
6 Tapit's World
7 Exchanging Kisses
8 Shoot the Loop
9 Stormin Elle
10 Trend
11 Snapped

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

Threads: 3
Posts: 96

Joined: Jan 5, 2013

July 27th, 2013 at 11:07:32 AM permalink

So from what I understand, your "Trifecta Box" is a trifecta key box, with your pick in any pay position with all/all in the other positions? Have you considered trying to restrict this beyond "all"? Even just excluding 1 or 2 horses would greatly reduce your cost. In a 8 horse field, removing 1 horse would reduce your cost from $126 to $90. In a 12 horse field, removing 2 would reduce your cost from $330 to $216. Picking the losers has value, too.

If I've misunderstood what your doing, sorry. I skimmed through the previous 30 pages, but I might have missed something.

FinsRule

FinsRule

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July 27th, 2013 at 11:22:22 AM permalink

You've got what he's doing right. And you're right too.

steeldco

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July 27th, 2013 at 11:33:59 AM permalink

Hey Scot,
Yes. Your impression of what I am doing is correct.
Also, you raise an interesting thought in trying to limit the number of horses taken. I'm going to devote some time and give that idea of yours some consideration.
Thanks Again!!

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

Threads: 3
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Joined: Jan 5, 2013

July 27th, 2013 at 1:07:21 PM permalink

How are you applying your algorithm? Have you written your own application? Are you running queries against a database? What's your input for each race? A past performance sheet? The morning line odds?

steeldco

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July 27th, 2013 at 1:30:40 PM permalink

Tapit's World is a scratch. The pick becomes "Dance Team".

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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July 27th, 2013 at 1:33:33 PM permalink

I have been testing with Arlington Park because they offer a free database of past performance. I use Access for the database and use queries. I take the free data and add the day's weights and morning lines. In the meantime, I am accumulating my own data as this year goes on.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

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Posts: 96

Joined: Jan 5, 2013

July 27th, 2013 at 1:55:11 PM permalink

Are you familiar with how the morning line is created? Are you aware that it is meant to reflect how the morning line maker thinks the wagering public will wager, not what they think is fair odds? I'm not sure how heavily you rely on that in your algorithm...

I'm not trying to discourage you from your pursuit. I think it's a great hobby. From what I've read, you are very new to this, so I thought I would point this out, since it isn't obvious.

steeldco

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July 27th, 2013 at 1:58:31 PM permalink

Thanks Scot. Although I didn't know that about the morning line, I had made an assumption along those lines.
I appreciate the help.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

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Posts: 96

Joined: Jan 5, 2013

July 27th, 2013 at 3:05:34 PM permalink

You might find this a worthwhile read: http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

steeldco

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July 27th, 2013 at 3:13:17 PM permalink

Thanks again Scot. That is a good read.......gave me some ideas.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 27th, 2013 at 3:55:57 PM permalink

Looking like a good day. The 10th. race trifecta paid $1,032.70. Also, so far, 6 of the 8 picks have been in the money. I like today's results with the algorithm
revision. I hope it's not an aberration.........

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 27th, 2013 at 3:59:43 PM permalink

Also, I took a look at Scot's suggestion of reducing the number of horses used in the trifecta. So I took a look at today's races and removed the 2 lowest rated horses within my numbers and it would have added around $150 to the net by reducing the costs. I do have a fear that it, in the future, may cost me a large payoff but I may start trying to reduce tomorrow.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 27th, 2013 at 4:16:56 PM permalink

Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 07/27/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Dragonfly Chaser -$10.00 4th
2 0
3 0
4 Blue Forty $25.00 1st
5 Quelch -$10.00 6th
6 Dance Team $74.00 1st
7 Exchanging Kisses $19.00 1st
8 Shoot the Loop -$10.00 3rd
9 Stormin Elle -$10.00 2nd
10 Trend -$10.00 2nd
11 Snapped -$10.00 3rd
12
Total $58.00

Trifecta Net $788.70

Show Bets $34.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 27th, 2013 at 4:28:29 PM permalink

7 of the 9 picks were in the money today. I can't wait for tomorrow............

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

Threads: 3
Posts: 96

Joined: Jan 5, 2013

July 27th, 2013 at 4:47:21 PM permalink

Are you actually placing these bets, or is this all theoretical?

steeldco

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July 27th, 2013 at 4:53:18 PM permalink

No. Not yet.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 28th, 2013 at 8:06:02 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 07/28/13
Race # Alternate
1 Military Legend Ex: 6
2 0
3 Fab a Dasher Ex: 3
4 Oh My Todd None
5 Starlight Dreamer Ex: 3
6 Nevrmesswithrichie Ex: 4,8
7 Cheroben Ex: 1
8 Kepi Ex: 6
9 0

I'm following thru on Scot's suggestion to exclude horses in the trifecta box. Where I found very low rated horses, I am excluding them. You will see the term "Ex:" followed by the program numbers of the horse to exclude from the trifecta box.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

Threads: 3
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Joined: Jan 5, 2013

July 28th, 2013 at 10:36:46 AM permalink

Good luck!

Only 4 horses in the first race. 3 scratches. No money to be made there.

steeldco

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July 28th, 2013 at 12:17:01 PM permalink

LOLOL............of course the horse that I excluded in the 3rd. wins.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

Threads: 3
Posts: 96

Joined: Jan 5, 2013

July 28th, 2013 at 1:13:28 PM permalink

Your exclusions would have been great win picks so far. 2nd in the 1st, 1st in the 3rd and 5th.

steeldco

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July 28th, 2013 at 1:19:30 PM permalink

Yep. Absolutely amazing.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

July 28th, 2013 at 2:45:38 PM permalink

Mediocre day....
Arlington Park for 07/28/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Military Legend scratched $0.00
2 0
3 Fab a Dasher 3rd -$10.00
4 Oh My Todd 8th -$10.00
5 Starlight Dreamer 6th -$10.00
6 Nevrmesswithrichie 3rd -$10.00
7 Cheroben scratched $0.00
8 Kepi 3rd -$10.00
9 0
10
11
12
Total -$50.00

Trifecta Net -$175.90

Show Bets -$4.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

August 1st, 2013 at 3:24:18 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 08/01/13
Race # Alternate
1 Mr. Mostly Ex: 3 & 6
2 Sir Kipling Ex:0
3 0
4 0
5 Quiet Nicole Ex: 1 & 2
6 Star of Paradise Ex:0
7 De Lica Ex: 8
8 Dynamic Royal Ex: 9
9 0

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

August 1st, 2013 at 4:14:01 PM permalink

Arlington Park for 08/01/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Mr. Mostly 7th -$10.00
2 Sir Kipling 5th -$10.00
3 0
4 0
5 Quiet Nicole 3rd -$10.00
6 Star of Paradise 6th -$10.00
7 De Lica 5th -$10.00
8 Dynamic Royal 6th -$10.00
9 0
10
11
12
Total -$60.00

Trifecta Net -$552.00

Show Bets -$43.00

YTD Results:
Alternate -$272.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$55.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-2037.05
Show Bets -$167.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

Threads: 3
Posts: 96

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August 2nd, 2013 at 7:35:58 AM permalink

Your win selection came in on average 5th place. Your average exclusion was 3rd place... It might be time to reevaluate your criteria!

steeldco

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August 2nd, 2013 at 8:22:29 AM permalink

Scot, thanks, you may be right. We'll give it a few more days though.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

August 2nd, 2013 at 11:02:09 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 08/02/13
Race # Alternate
1 Limestone Ex: 1
2 Mirka Ex: 2
3 0
4 Jaguar Ridge Ex: 1
5 Cass' Lady 0
6 Mavericking 0
7 0
8 Macho Coach 0
9 Smokem Gray Ex: 8

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

FinsRule

FinsRule

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August 2nd, 2013 at 11:20:07 AM permalink

What do you like about Macho Coach? I don't know why he is going to go off so low. (Now he's going to win)

Scot

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August 2nd, 2013 at 4:59:33 PM permalink

He did win!

steeldco

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August 3rd, 2013 at 7:46:48 AM permalink

Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 08/02/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Limestone 2nd -$10.00
2 Mirka 1st $41.00
3 0
4 Jaguar Ridge 4th -$10.00
5 Cass' Lady 7th -$10.00
6 Mavericking 4th -$10.00
7 0
8 Macho Coach 1st $24.00
9 Smokem Gray 7th -$10.00
10
11
12
Total $15.00

Trifecta Net -$438.40

Show Bets -$24.00

YTD Results:
Alternate -$257.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$86.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-2475.45
Show Bets -$191.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

August 3rd, 2013 at 7:48:21 AM permalink

Yesterday's results were a slight improvement, but nothing to get excited over. So I've tweaked the algorithm a bit for today. We'll see what happens.......

Arlington Park for 08/03/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Lewderhoo Ex: 2
4 J. Pa
5 Luck With a Kiss
6 Merilore Ex: 5
7 Eleven Final Fours
8 Distant Bugle Ex: 7
9 Artful Bee Ex: 7
10 Slammin Rose
11 0

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

August 4th, 2013 at 6:35:27 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 08/03/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 0
2 0
3 Lewderhoo 4th -$10.00
4 J. Pa 1st $29.00
5 Luck With a Kiss 2nd -$10.00
6 Merilore 4th -$10.00
7 Eleven Final Fours 2nd -$10.00
8 Distant Bugle 4th -$10.00
9 Artful Bee 3rd -$10.00
10 Slammin Rose 3rd -$10.00
11 0
12
Total -$41.00

Trifecta Net -$281.90

Show Bets -$10.00

YTD Results:
Alternate -$298.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$105.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-2757.35
Show Bets -$201.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

treetopbuddy

Threads: 34
Posts: 1739

Joined: Jan 12, 2013

August 4th, 2013 at 8:07:00 AM permalink

steeldco......Having raced, bred and trained horses this would be my advice.....even though you didn't ask for it......learn to identify the 'live' horses. Get inside the heads of the connections (owners,trainers and jockeys). Experienced horse players can identify training and race patterns that look 'suspicious'....a' la a live horse. People in the horse business are extremely patient and will take an entire year to setup the right horse for the right race for the big score. It's possible that some very sophisticated algos can identify such horses but I'm afraid yours are just too simplistic. Some race cards don't warrant a single bet. Definitely can't bet every race and succeed. Keep posting picks but you might consider looking at races with a jaded eye. Constructive criticism only.

Each day is better than the next

treetopbuddy

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August 4th, 2013 at 8:15:12 AM permalink

another way to put it......try to figure out who's cheating the most..

Each day is better than the next

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

August 4th, 2013 at 8:48:10 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 08/04/13
Race # Alternate
1 Holycow Shes Sassy 0
2 Are You Dancing Ex: 3
3 Great Red Beauty 0
4 Annie Bellum Ex: 7
5 Millennium Star Ex: 7
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Latika Love Ex: 1

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Scot

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Posts: 96

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August 4th, 2013 at 10:02:01 AM permalink

I agree with treetopbuddy that your algorithm seems too simplistic. I still think it's a fun and entertaining hobby, though.

steeldco

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August 4th, 2013 at 10:27:14 AM permalink

Not trying to be argumentative, but what makes you think it's simplistic? Particularly since you don't know what it is. What am I missing?

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

treetopbuddy

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August 4th, 2013 at 11:35:43 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
what makes you think it's simplistic? Particularly since you don't know what it is. What am I missing?

Most everybody is looking at the same garbage. The garbage (race form) tells you what the horse did not what he's going to do....your system/algos probably factor in.......deep breath......Jim Carey in Pet Detective impersonation........M/L odds, jockey switch, sprint to distance, distance to sprint, turf to dirt, dirt to turf, first time off the geld, blinkers on, blinkers off, muddy track, turf yielding, first time Lasix, second start off the bench, 30 day plus layoff, never won surface, never lost on surface, M/L favorite, disparity between M/L and at post odds, back on short rest, bullet works, poor works, late shoe change, horse worked up in paddock, horse calm in the Parade to Post, jockey gives signal to particular fan, owner change, trainer change, silks change, horse takes dump, late money on horse, early money on horse, early speed, late closing speed, tactile speed, no speed, front wraps, back wraps, front and back wraps, short field, deep field, shadow roll, figure eight, filly against colts, overseas shipper, lay-off year or more, jockey win %, trainer win%, jockey/trainer win %, bug boy, weight allowance. horses coming out of same race, key races, dropping for maiden special weight, 7 figure auction yearling, enough for now. Deep breath. Have a good day gentleman.

Look you have to know how to interpret info in race form and other material available to the horse player. You need connections on the backside, you need to log years in at the track, you can completely understand the game and still lose. It's my understanding that powerful algos have been developed and have shown some success in Hong Kong. Not all algos work and when they work they will eventually be found out thus pounding value out of the horse.

Yes, I know what goes into your picks. In not trying to diminish what you are doing. Keep it up. Someday you my find the holy grail.

Each day is better than the next

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

August 4th, 2013 at 11:52:11 AM permalink

So you're saying that it must be simplistic because you can name the variables that I may, or may not be using? If that's the basis for it being simplistic, well, okay. I appreciate the input.

Let me just leave you with this (BTW, coming from a guy who has proven absolutely nothing), knowing the variables is one thing. Understanding and assigning significance to each is altogether quite different.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

treetopbuddy