Thoroughbred Picks

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June 7th, 2013 at 7:12:58 PM permalink

Its a small sample but remember, the larger the field, generally the better the payout. You probably won more with the 1 win in the 11 horse field then the 4 horse field

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

FinsRule

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June 7th, 2013 at 7:32:50 PM permalink

Where is the free database for pp?

steeldco

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/racing-wagering/polytrack-statistics

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June 7th, 2013 at 7:35:15 PM permalink

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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June 7th, 2013 at 7:47:19 PM permalink

Amount won by field size. It looks like (yes, small sample size) that a field of 6 to 8 horses is ideal:

Field Size
4 $19.00
5 $30.00
6 $63.40 winners of 2 races
7 $7.00
8 $79.00
9 $5.00
11 $65.00
Total $268.40

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

terapined

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June 7th, 2013 at 8:00:44 PM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Amount won by field size. It looks like (yes, small sample size) that a field of 6 to 8 horses is ideal:

Field Size
4 $19.00
5 $30.00
6 $63.40 winners of 2 races
7 $7.00
8 $79.00
9 $5.00
11 $65.00
Total $268.40

Wow, 9 horses and you won 5 bucks, that's a huge favorite that won.

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

steeldco

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June 8th, 2013 at 6:34:17 AM permalink

Yep. It was "Katie the Lady" on 06/05/13 and it paid $3 for a win.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
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Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 8th, 2013 at 8:38:57 AM permalink

Made a couple of small adjustments for today.......

Arlington Park for 06/08/13
Race # Original
1 Sacred Gift
2 Paschendale
3 Batito
4 Francois
5 Mulata
6 0
7 Algonquin Posse
8 H T H Thirtyseven
9 Fifth of April
10 0
11 0

Race # Alternate
1 Nagys Piggy Bank
2 Izzaeven
3 0
4 Cherokee Lord
5 Grandma's Rules
6 0
7 Fire Tricks
8 Iver With an E
9 0
10 0
11 0

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 9th, 2013 at 8:00:52 AM permalink

Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/08/13
Race # Original
1 Sacred Gift -$10.00 4th
2 Paschendale -$10.00 2nd
3 Batito -$10.00 2nd
4 Francois -$10.00 4th
5 Mulata -$10.00 5th
6 0 $0.00
7 Algonquin Posse -$10.00 7th
8 H T H Thirtyseven -$10.00 9th
9 Fifth of April -$10.00 7th
10 0
11 0
-$80.00

Race # Alternate
1 Nagys Piggy Bank -$10.00 5th
2 Izzaeven -$10.00 4th
3 0 $0.00
4 Cherokee Lord -$10.00 6th
5 Grandma's Rules $27.00 1st
6 0 $0.00
7 Fire Tricks -$10.00 5th
8 Iver With an E -$10.00 3rd
9 0
10 0
11 0
-$23.00

Grand Total -$103.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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June 9th, 2013 at 8:02:26 AM permalink

YTD Results:
Original -$256.00
Alternate -92.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$18.40
Total YTD -$348.60

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 9th, 2013 at 8:35:58 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/09/13
Race # Original
1 Collin's Smile
2 0
3 Take Heart
4 Ballyjamesduff
5 Rock On Richie
6 Richie's Lifestyle
7 Dakota Milkshake
8 Reggiville
9 0
10
11

Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Mish Mosh
4 Control Tower
5 0
6 Harbor Junior
7 Military Legend
8 Bandini's Dream
9 0
10
11

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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June 9th, 2013 at 3:39:34 PM permalink

I know that I've said this before, but it bears repeating.........picking horses is damn tough!

Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/09/13
Race # Original
1 Collin's Smile -$10.00 3rd
2 0 $0.00
3 Take Heart -$10.00 3rd
4 Ballyjamesduff -$10.00 6th
5 Rock On Richie -$10.00 5th
6 Richie's Lifestyle -$10.00 12th
7 Dakota Milkshake -$10.00 12th
8 Reggiville -$10.00 5th
9 0
10
11
-$70.00

Race # Alternate
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Mish Mosh $0.00 scratched
4 Control Tower -$10.00 2nd
5 0 $0.00
6 Harbor Junior -$10.00 10th
7 Military Legend -$10.00 6th
8 Bandini's Dream -$10.00 7th
9 0
10
11
-$40.00

Grand Total -$110.00

YTD Results:
Original -$326.00
Alternate -132.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win -$21.60
Total YTD -$458.60

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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June 12th, 2013 at 8:32:58 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 06/12/13
Race # Original
1 Cartiac Arrest
2 Taty's Gold
3 Denim
4 Beware the Tiger
5 Tripping
6 Endless Drive
7 Bowmans Castle
8 Love Thy Neighbor
9 Chica Silver
10 0
11 0

Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Todi Bee
4 0
5 Dani Nikki
6 Uncle Jeep
7 He's Bonafide
8 Madam Nancy
9 Sunday Choir
10 0
11 0

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

FinsRule

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June 12th, 2013 at 9:45:41 AM permalink

I think using your % lost would be more telling.

steeldco

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June 12th, 2013 at 10:13:38 AM permalink

FinsRule, do you mean % of winners vs. total picks?

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

FinsRule

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June 12th, 2013 at 12:19:11 PM permalink

No - Percent of money lost. If you've bet $10,000 and are down $300 it's a lot different than betting $400 and being down $300.

terapined

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June 12th, 2013 at 12:21:01 PM permalink

Money won or lost is the true measure because its really the bottom line in reality.

What I find interesting is that you are using 2 different formulas and just about every single race each formula points to a different horse. I would think that 2 different good formulas should actually point to the same horse on a lot of races. Are the formulas completely different from one another?

Also you might want to look at your results if you made a win place show bet instead of a win bet.
If some of your losers finished 2nd or 3rd a lot, W P S bet might be the more appropriate bet.
I personally like the win place show bets but its gotta be a big field to be worth the bet.

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

steeldco

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June 12th, 2013 at 12:39:53 PM permalink

terapined, thanks. I did start out thinking that a bet across the board would work. It did not.

Good point on the 2 formulas pointing to the same horse. It does happen at times. However, when it does, I only show the pick once under the original.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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June 12th, 2013 at 12:42:47 PM permalink

FinsRule, thanks but since all the wagers are $10 then we would be talking the same result. I'll check back and compile.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 12th, 2013 at 3:55:56 PM permalink

Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/12/13
Race # Original
1 Cartiac Arrest -$10.00 3rd
2 Taty's Gold -$10.00 2nd
3 Denim -$10.00 8th. Disqualified from 2nd
4 Beware the Tiger -$10.00 3rd
5 Tripping -$10.00 3rd
6 $0.00
7 Bowmans Castle -$10.00 9th
8 Love Thy Neighbor $0.00 scratched
9 Chica Silver -$10.00 3rd
10 0
11 0
-$70.00

Race # Alternate
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Todi Bee -$10.00 9th
4 0 $0.00
5 Dani Nikki -$10.00 5th
6 Uncle Jeep $12.00 1st
7 He's Bonafide -$10.00 8th
8 Madam Nancy -$10.00 3rd
9 Sunday Choir -$10.00 10th
10 0
11 0
-$38.00

Grand Total -$108.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

terapined

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June 12th, 2013 at 5:50:01 PM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/12/13
Race # Original
1 Cartiac Arrest -$10.00 3rd
2 Taty's Gold -$10.00 2nd
3 Denim -$10.00 8th. Disqualified from 2nd
4 Beware the Tiger -$10.00 3rd
5 Tripping -$10.00 3rd
6 $0.00
7 Bowmans Castle -$10.00 9th
8 Love Thy Neighbor $0.00 scratched
9 Chica Silver -$10.00 3rd
10 0
11 0
-$70.00

I saw a lot of your horses didn't win but did finish in the money. I looked up the payoffs and unfortunately if you made a 2 dollar Win Place and Show, still down. the figure is -18.80. Only the 9 race made money, Chica Silver paid 8.80 to show.

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

FinsRule

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June 12th, 2013 at 5:57:24 PM permalink

The reasoning is that you can see where you are in relation to the takeout. I think 18% at AP? If you're below 18% lost you're at least sort of on the right track.

steeldco

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June 13th, 2013 at 4:35:45 AM permalink

FinsRule, I checked the "Alternate" formula (since it is the closest to producing winners) and there have been 58 wagers @$10 for a total of $580. The loss was $170.60 for 29.41%.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

FinsRule

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June 13th, 2013 at 6:29:46 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
FinsRule, I checked the "Alternate" formula (since it is the closest to producing winners) and there have been 58 wagers @$10 for a total of $580. The loss was $170.60 for 29.41%.

Yikes.

steeldco

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Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 14th, 2013 at 7:48:01 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/14/13
Race # Original
1 Sorta Sassy
2 0
3 0
4 Bear Medicine
5 Macho Coach
6 Latent Rush
7 Lefty's Legacy
8 Fastestwhogetspaid
9 0
10 0
11 0

Race # Alternate
1 Silky Sami
2 0
3 0
4 Mindy Can Dance
5 Cavalero
6 Barracuda Bay
7 Perfect Step
8 Ultimate X.
9 0
10 0
11 0

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 14th, 2013 at 6:20:05 PM permalink

Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/14/13
Race # Original
1 Sorta Sassy -$10.00 2nd
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Bear Medicine -$10.00 6th
5 Macho Coach -$10.00 6th
6 Latent Rush -$10.00 7th
7 Lefty's Legacy -$10.00 3rd
8 Fastestwhogetspaid -$10.00 10th
9 0
10 0
11 0
-$60.00

Race # Alternate
1 Silky Sami $58.00 1st
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Mindy Can Dance -$10.00 9th
5 Cavalero $8.00 1st
6 Barracuda Bay -$10.00 4th
7 Perfect Step -$10.00 2nd
8 Ultimate X. -$10.00 4th
9 0
10 0
11 0
$26.00

Grand Total -$34.00

YTD:
YTD Results:
Original -$456.00
Alternate -144.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$28.40
Total YTD -$600.60
% Loss 22.59%

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

terapined

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June 14th, 2013 at 7:02:37 PM permalink

When I go to the races, 1st thing I do is get the racing form or something similar. Its a few bucks but its worth it with all the information on past performances. I'm checking out the Arlington Park web site and am real disappointed on the amount of free info on past performances. In other sports you can bet on, their is a ton of free information out there on the internet, not the case in horse racing, unless you pay. Also a lot of horses move around from track to track so how do you evaluate a horse that has raced a lot but recently moved to Arlington Park? Do you have a track near you? Often near the end of a racing day, you can pick up a free program laying around. I often don't stay for all the races, leave with a few races left and hand off my program to someone coming in late and get a nice smile and a thanks. If you can score some free programs, you might want to mine that more complete data on past performances then look at the results to see how you would have done.

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 14th, 2013 at 7:35:51 PM permalink

terapined, first and foremost, I appreciate the dialogue and education.

I'm very new to this and I'm trying to do my best to get up to speed. Also, I write this after having a couple of glasses of wine and recognize the fact that may be I'm a bit out of it. So bear with me.

I do not have a track near me. I'm trying to develop a tool from free info out there. I would hate to have to pay Equibase if I don't think that I have something that may work.

I'm presently using just data from the Arlington Park free database. It has just performances from Arlington and nearby tracks.

Lastly, I'm trying to compile my own past performance data, but it is only for a couple of months and not complete enough.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

FinsRule

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Joined: Dec 23, 2009

June 14th, 2013 at 8:17:24 PM permalink

All you need to do is open a Twinspires account and you get free unlimited past performances.

terapined

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Joined: Dec 1, 2012

June 14th, 2013 at 8:29:33 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
All you need to do is open a Twinspires account and you get free unlimited past performances.

That's a great idea. I just went to that site to sign up. The want my SS number. yikes. Not sure I want to give it up. I just wanted to see some past performances.
Can I trust them? No site ever required my SS number. Even poker sites back in the day.

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 15th, 2013 at 7:30:40 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 06/15/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 La Tia
3 Sound Effect
4 Outline
5 Metonga Mist
6 0
7 The Pizza Man
8 Iolanda's Perfect
9 Perfectly At Home
10 Jaguar Ridge
11 Adios Nardo

Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Goldway
3 0
4 August Day
5 Dragonfly Chaser
6 0
7 Coalport
8 Sheriff Bart
9 Greytap
10 Jesuit Warrior
11 Sporting Holiday

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

FinsRule

Threads: 129
Posts: 3945

Joined: Dec 23, 2009

June 15th, 2013 at 8:04:16 AM permalink

Quote: terapined
That's a great idea. I just went to that site to sign up. The want my SS number. yikes. Not sure I want to give it up. I just wanted to see some past performances.
Can I trust them? No site ever required my SS number. Even poker sites back in the day.

I have been on the site for years and haven't had a problem. The site is owned by CHDN, trading at $80 a share. So it's as safe as any bank you give your info to (not saying much). The only caveat to the Free PP is that you need to make a wager on the track for the PP you download. But that can be as little as a .10 super or a $2 show bet, so to me, definitely a great deal.

Oh, and live video of all tracks (even mobile)

steeldco

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Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 16th, 2013 at 10:56:45 AM permalink

Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/15/13
Race # Original
1 0 $0.00
2 La Tia $6.00 1st
3 Sound Effect -$10.00 2nd
4 Outline -$10.00 3rd
5 Metonga Mist -$10.00 5th
6 0 $0.00
7 The Pizza Man -$10.00 2nd
8 Iolanda's Perfect -$10.00 2nd
9 Perfectly At Home -$10.00 7th
10 Jaguar Ridge -$10.00 7th
11 Adios Nardo $54.00 1st
-$10.00

Race # Alternate
1 0 $0.00
2 Goldway -$10.00 4th
3 0 $0.00
4 August Day -$10.00 6th
5 Dragonfly Chaser -$10.00 6th
6 0 $0.00
7 Coalport $29.00 1st
8 Sheriff Bart -$10.00 4th
9 Greytap -$10.00 8th
10 Jesuit Warrior -$10.00 8th
11 Sporting Holiday -$10.00 6th
-$41.00

Grand Total -$51.00

YTD Results:
Original -$466.00
Alternate -185.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$27.40
Total YTD -$651.60
% Loss 25.78%

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 16th, 2013 at 11:14:58 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 06/16/13
Race # Original
1 Let It Rain
2 0
3 Candy Street
4 Lemondropspritzer
5 5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Race # Alternate
1 Dontbetellinme
2 0
3 0
4 Sherry Angel
5 Gimme a Double
6
7
8
9
10
11

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 16th, 2013 at 11:32:25 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 06/16/13
Race # Original
1 Let It Rain
2 0
3 Candy Street
4 Lemondropspritzer
5 Redbone
6 So Long for Now
7 Sir Kipling
8 0
9 Masquerade Fashion
10
11

Race # Alternate
1 Dontbetellinme
2 0
3 0
4 Sherry Angel
5 Gimme a Double
6 Ascot Eye
7 Rain Ray
8 0
9 Girls Rock N Rule
10
11

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

terapined

Threads: 95
Posts: 6576

Joined: Dec 1, 2012

June 16th, 2013 at 1:23:41 PM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/15/13
Race # Original
1 0 $0.00
2 La Tia $6.00 1st
3 Sound Effect -$10.00 2nd
4 Outline -$10.00 3rd
5 Metonga Mist -$10.00 5th
6 0 $0.00
7 The Pizza Man -$10.00 2nd
8 Iolanda's Perfect -$10.00 2nd
9 Perfectly At Home -$10.00 7th
10 Jaguar Ridge -$10.00 7th
11 Adios Nardo $54.00 1st
-$10.00

You had a pretty good day with these picks. If you played 2 bucks across the board W P S. would be plus 12.30.

Might want to check out Twinspires. I did sign up but have not made a deposit yet. Its actually an excellent deal in that if you just make one minimum bet, you get free past performances for whatever track all races that day. I checked out the Brisnet samples and yea baby, its the good stuff just like the racing form.
You should check it out Steeldco, this is a better deal then being at the track because PP are not free at the track. At this site its free just by making just 1 small bet. You might want to make a small conservative bet just for the free info and still keep track of of wins and losses on your formula theoretical bets.

When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 16th, 2013 at 1:30:14 PM permalink

terapined, thanks, I'll check it out. Nice hit today on "Sherry Angel" in the 4th.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 16th, 2013 at 4:41:35 PM permalink

Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/16/13
Race # Original
1 Let It Rain -$10.00 3rd
2 0 $0.00
3 Candy Street -$10.00 5th
4 Lemondropspritzer -$10.00 3rd
5 Redbone -$10.00 8th
6 So Long for Now -$10.00 5th
7 Sir Kipling -$10.00 6th
8 0 $0.00
9 Masquerade Fashion -$10.00 3rd
10
11
-$70.00

Race # Alternate
1 Dontbetellinme $18.00 1st
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Sherry Angel $88.00 1st
5 Gimme a Double -$10.00 2nd
6 Ascot Eye -$10.00 4th
7 Rain Ray -$10.00 4th
8 0 $0.00
9 Girls Rock N Rule -$10.00 10th
10
11
$66.00

Grand Total -$4.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 16th, 2013 at 4:42:10 PM permalink

YTD Results:
Original -$536.00
Alternate -119.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$45.40
Total YTD -$655.60
% Loss on Alternate 15.33%

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 19th, 2013 at 7:19:08 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/19/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 Rivershire
3 Thecushmaker
4 Catafire
5 Daddyspentdamoney
6 Viva Bertha
7 0
8 Looks to Spare
9 Denim
10
11

Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Ha Long Bay
3 0
4 0
5 Muazzaz
6 Dreams Die First
7 0
8 Sir Bob
9 U Step Aside
10
11

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 19th, 2013 at 1:33:44 PM permalink

I see where "Viva Bertha" was scratched in the 6th. That pick is being replaced by "Morioba".

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 19th, 2013 at 4:08:31 PM permalink

Interesting day with a few that were right there but failed to finish.......which reminds me of something that the wife always says....LOL

Arlington Park for 06/19/13
Race # Original
1 0 $0.00
2 Rivershire -$10.00 2nd
3 Thecushmaker -$10.00 2nd
4 Catafire -$10.00 6th
5 Daddyspentdamoney -$10.00 2nd
6 Morioba -$10.00 4th
7 0 $0.00
8 Looks to Spare -$10.00 7th
9 Denim -$10.00 9th
10
11
-$70.00

Race # Alternate
1 0 $0.00
2 Ha Long Bay -$10.00 5th
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 Muazzaz -$10.00 8th
6 Dreams Die First -$10.00 5th
7 0 $0.00
8 Sir Bob $0.00 scratched
9 U Step Aside -$10.00 4th
10
11
-$40.00

Grand Total -$110.00

YTD Results:
Original -$606.00
Alternate -$159.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$5.40
Total YTD -$765.60
% Loss on Alternate 19.46%

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 20th, 2013 at 11:47:44 AM permalink

I've changed a couple of the metrics and we'll see what happens.

Tomorrow's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/21/13
Race # Original
1 Quiet Nicole
2 0
3 Starry Eyed Kate
4 Razzo Succo
5 Heart Doctor
6 0
7 0
8 Rhodsey
9 Captain Jack
10
11

Race # Alternate
1 Mykukubird
2 0
3 Broken Trust Fund
4 Hughes the Daddy
5 Caneros
6 0
7 0
8 Score Baby Score
9 Isle of Skye
10
11

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

treetopbuddy

treetopbuddy

Threads: 34
Posts: 1739

Joined: Jan 12, 2013

June 20th, 2013 at 3:14:23 PM permalink

steeldco.....why all the work? I've posted a positive return system for the horse players. Bet on the odds on horse to place in a field of 10 or more runners. The later in the card the race is the better. Must be at tracks that handle 100k plus in the win pool per race. Approximately 15% return. My gift to the forums horse players.

Each day is better than the next

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 20th, 2013 at 4:32:47 PM permalink

treetopbuddy, sorry if this is a dumb question, but some of the terminology still throws me a bit at times, are you saying to bet every horse in a field of 10 or more, to place?

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

treetopbuddy

treetopbuddy

Threads: 34
Posts: 1739

Joined: Jan 12, 2013

June 20th, 2013 at 4:58:11 PM permalink

Quote: steeldco
treetopbuddy, sorry if this is a dumb question, but some of the terminology still throws me a bit at times, are you saying to bet every horse in a field of 10 or more, to place?

Just bet one horse.....you bet the horse that goes off at 4/5, 3/5, 2/5, 1/5 or 1/9 to win. Bet that horse to place. 10 plus horses in race. Strike rate 85%. Average mutual ticket 2.65. 12.62% return.

Each day is better than the next

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 21st, 2013 at 3:59:33 AM permalink

treetopbuddy, so I bet the favorite to place in a race that has at least 10 horses in it?

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

treetopbuddy

treetopbuddy

Threads: 34
Posts: 1739

Joined: Jan 12, 2013

June 21st, 2013 at 5:13:04 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
treetopbuddy, so I bet the favorite to place in a race that has at least 10 horses in it?

Yes, as long as the favorite is less than even money at post time.....4/5, 3/5, 2/5, 1/5 or 1/9.

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

Threads: 129
Posts: 3945

Joined: Dec 23, 2009

June 21st, 2013 at 8:13:18 AM permalink

A 4/5 shot does not have an 85% chance of placing. I do agree that betting a 3/5 shot to place is better than betting it to win, but you won't just make 12% profit betting those horses.

It just is not true.

steeldco