I know absolutely nothing about horses. NOTHING. But it as though I have too much time on my hands and so I decided to find some data that I could work with to see whether I can come up with a way of picking horses that works.
I found data for Arlington Park racetrack that I fooled around with and so I have developed some picks for tomorrow. These are all to win.
Race # Arlington Park for 05/15/13
1 Hurracane Katie (IL)
2 Mai Tai Mama (KY)
3 Heart Doctor (FL)
4 0
5 Tsunami Salli (IL)
6 Tonzie (IL)
7 Chas the Man (IL)
8 King Rootin Tootin (IL)
9 Dragonfly Chaser (IL)
I'll give this a little time though.
The next set of picks:
Race # Arlington Park for 05/17/13
1 0
2 0
3 Hattaash
4 Telma
5 Judy My Darling
6 0
7 0
8 Let It Rain
9 0
That's a lot of studying. Another great tool is a creation by of course , Andy Beyer, Beyer Speed Figures. He takes a lot into account creating his speed figures. There are a lot of details Beyer considers to calculate his speed figures. For example If a horse does a mile in say 2min 30 sec at Belmont. Another horse ran 2min 30 sec at Pimlico. Now both horses are competing at Tampa bay downs, which is better. Look at the Beyer speed figures. Belmont has wide turns, Pimlico tight turns. There are other differences in the track and Beyer takes this all into account. Say you have a horse that always races 6 furlongs and another horse always runs 8 furlong races. How do you compare times when both are in a 7 furlong race, check out the beyer speed figures. They are so popular, daily racing form pays Beyer to publish them. So check the racing form, the speed figures are right there.
Good Luck and have fun, I always enjoy betting on the races just for fun
Thanks again!
Tomorrow's Picks at Arlington:
Race # Arlington Park for 05/18/13
1 Gavilan
2 Flying Rapunzel
3 Slammy Boy
4 0
5 0
6 Helloagainmyfriend
7 0
8 Delightful Daisy
9 Age of Aquarius
10 Spring Formal
After a couple of days, I almost feel like throwing darts might be a better option with racing............
I don't know. I guess that I would have to defer to your much better knowledge. However, my feeling has been that even amongst a bunch of losers, there is a better than the bunch horse.......at least that's what I have thought.
So, look for a price - my pick for that.... Let's pick the 7.
Quote: FinsRuleI think tough to predict a winner is a good thing. If anything can happen, then you can make money. The problem is that there is often a horse who is dropping that is better on paper. In the 6th it's the 2. Of course, he hasn't raced in a looooong time.
So, look for a price - my pick for that.... Let's pick the 7.
And, that's how you do it. $50 winner for y'all.
Congrats!
05/19/13 Arlington Picks:
Race # Original
1 Vision of Liz
2 Annette's Guy
3 0
4 Rock On Richie
5 Iolanda's Perfect
6 0
7 Cool Pren
8 Atlantic Tap
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run
2 Northscape
3 Richie's Lifestyle
4 Delago
5 Ravin About Richie
6 Hausen
7 Ming Glo
8 0
9 Blissful Gold
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 Remembermealways
9 0
10
Arlington Park for 05/19/13
Race # Original
1 At the Finish
2 Annette's Guy
3 0
4 Rock On Richie
5 Iolanda's Perfect
6 0
7 Cool Pren
8 St. Louis City
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run
2 Northscape
3 Richie's Lifestyle
4 Delago
5 Ravin About Richie
6 Hausen
7 Ravin About Riv
8 0
9 Roaringoodmartini
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 Remembermealways
9 0
10
Today's results:
Arlington Park for 05/19/13
Race # Original
1 At the Finish -$10.00 2nd.
2 Annette's Guy -$10.00 2nd.
3 0 $0.00
4 Rock On Richie -$10.00 2nd.
5 Iolanda's Perfect -$10.00 5th.
6 0 $0.00
7 Cool Pren -$10.00 6th.
8 St. Louis City -$10.00 3rd.
9 0 $0.00
10
-$60.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run -$10.00 4th.
2 Northscape $4.00 1st.
3 Richie's Lifestyle $11.00 1st.
4 Delago -$10.00 3rd.
5 Ravin About Richie -$10.00 3rd.
6 Hausen -$10.00 Projected to hit the finish line sometime next year
7 Ravin About Riv -$10.00 8th.
8 0 $0.00
9 Roaringoodmartini -$10.00 4th.
10
-$45.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 Remembermealways -$10.00 6th.
9 0 $0.00
10
-$10.00
Grand Total -$115.00
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
Arlington Park for 05/22/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 Masquerade Fashion
3 Onedayatatyme
4 Sir Applesolutely
5 0
6 0
7 Uno Pecador
8 Tripping
9 Queen of Heat
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Cinco Y Cinco
2 Distant Mesa
3 0
4 Come On Man
5 Moshaagib
6 Rich Chocolate
7 0
8 Miss Livingston
9 Real Dee
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 Eastern Precipice
4 Outlaw Zen
5 0
6 0
7 Mish Mosh
8 0
9 Autumn Splendor
10
The 1st. Alternate formula is not much better.
The 2nd. Alternate formula is showing a bit of promise. Thru 3 race days, there have been 8 picks and 3 of them were winners.
Arlington Park for 05/22/13
Race # Original
1 0 $0.00
2 Masquerade Fashion -$10.00 6th.
3 Onedayatatyme -$10.00 4th
4 Sir Applesolutely $23.00 1st
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Uno Pecador -$10.00 5th
8 Tripping -$10.00 6th.
9 Queen of Heat -$10.00 5th
10
-$27.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Cinco Y Cinco -$10.00 2nd.
2 Distant Mesa -$10.00 2nd.
3 0 $0.00
4 Come On Man -$10.00 5th
5 Moshaagib -$10.00 2nd.
6 Rich Chocolate -$10.00 7th
7 0 $0.00
8 Miss Livingston -$10.00 3rd
9 Real Dee -$10.00 3rd
10
-$70.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Eastern Precipice $30.00 1st
4 Outlaw Zen -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Mish Mosh $9.00 1st
8 0 $0.00
9 Autumn Splendor -$10.00 4th
10
$19.00
Grand Total -$78.00
Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 05/24/13
Race # Original
1 Pranksterbdancing
2 Ballyjamesduff
3 Emile
4 Doug Junior
5 Lisa's Mad Again
6 You Dancing Demon
7 Chantilly Outlaw
8 You Bought Her
9 Fastestwhogetspaid
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Miss Kitten
2 Control Tower
3 0
4 Coalport
5 Eileen Evelyn
6 Awesome Attack
7 There's No Telling
8 Barisoff
9 Mec Dancer
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 Mirka
2 0
3 Plunder
4 Striking Hight
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Triple Check
10
Quote: steeldcoAny horse players out there that can answer a question for me? Or give me an opinion?
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
Your question cuts at the heart of why this is so hard. If a horse runs well in the spring of 2012, and has a big layoff, and when he comes back, can't replicate prior form, will he ever be able to? Usually not, but if he does, you'll get paid a lot if you're on him.
They are animals, and you don't have enough information to know what is going to happen. That's why it's hard. And the randomness is why I believe that the only way you can make money is betting on longer shots. Of course, I barely ever listen to my own advice.
I'll be at AP today for the late double, and the whole day tomorrow for their 3rd best day of racing of the year. Maybe I'll post some picks if I have time.
Thanks. I appreciate the input. Good Luck!
Race 9 - $2 Exacta Box - 2, 9, 11
(If I hit the first leg of double - Change to: $2 Exacta - 2, 13 / 2, 9, 11, 13)
Quote: steeldcoAny horse players out there that can answer a question for me? Or give me an opinion?
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
I allways look at the horses last 3 races period. If the horse is coming from a long layoff, I still just look at last 3 races. Now if one of those races have a very unusual finish times such as not finished or Jockey pulled up horse so extremely slow time, I throw those out and go to 4th last and even 5th last race.
Quote: steeldcoAny horse players out there that can answer a question for me? Or give me an opinion?
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
Races that were run over a year ago are for the most part meaningless. Recency plays a big role in handicapping. It's all about the form cycle. Most horses can hold top form for two maybe three races. Exceptional horses can hold their form longer. Races that were run over a year ago, have handicapping value if horse had a big break in training.....6-9 months or more. Coming back off injury.
Race # Original
1 Pranksterbdancing -$10.00
2 Ballyjamesduff -$10.00
3 Emile $23.00
4 Doug Junior -$10.00
5 Lisa's Mad Again -$10.00
6 You Dancing Demon -$10.00
7 Chantilly Outlaw -$10.00
8 You Bought Her -$10.00
9 Fastestwhogetspaid $0.00
10
-$47.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Miss Kitten -$10.00
2 Control Tower $15.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Coalport $3.00
5 Eileen Evelyn -$10.00
6 Awesome Attack -$10.00
7 There's No Telling -$10.00
8 Barisoff -$10.00
9 Mec Dancer -$10.00
10
-$42.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 Mirka $19.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Plunder -$10.00
4 Striking Hight -$10.00
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Triple Check -$10.00
10
-$11.00
Grand Total -$100.00
Year to Date:
Original
5/15/2013 -80.00
5/17/2013 -30.00 -110.00
5/18/2013 -60.00 -170.00
5/19/2013 -60.00 -230.00
5/22/2013 -27.00 -257.00
5/24/2013 -47.00 -304.00
1st. Alternate
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $38.00
5/19/2013 -$45.00 -$7.00
5/22/2013 -$70.00 -$77.00
5/24/2013 -$42.00 -$119.00
2nd. Alternate
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $32.40 1 of 3
5/19/2013 -$10.00 $22.40 0 of 1
5/22/2013 $19.00 $41.40 2 of 4
5/24/2013 -$11.00 $30.40 1 of 4
Here's what I find interesting. If I use the 2nd. Alternate and stop after the 1st. win of the day then my results look like the below. Again, based upon a $10 wager to win. Looking even more promising......
2nd. Alternate-stop at 1st. Win
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $42.40
5/19/2013 -$10.00 $32.40
5/22/2013 $30.00 $62.40
5/24/2013 $19.00 $81.40
Is it possible that I'm on to something here.............
The reason I love the horses is because it is so hard to win. It makes me think, and that relaxes me. I have no formula so to speak, but I do know the deeper I look at the form, the worse I do, LOL. If I look at the form for a minute or two and go with my first choice, it usually does better than me stewing over the for for 10 mins looking at everything.
What makes things tough is track is always trying to even things out. Say there are 10 horses in a race. Track thinks 5 are much better the other 5, The better 5 will have weights added to even things out. Also its hard to judge horses when they make changes on what type of races to enter. A traditionally turf horse now running on dirt. A horse that generally runs long mile races now in a 8 furlong race. A 8 furlonger racer now in a short 6 furlong speed race. Maiden races are tough, horses looking for their 1st win ever and have little or no race history.
Insofar as what is not factored in, it was because I'm not sure of their value, or how to assign a value. Not yet anyway. I'm going let the current formula play itself out a bit and see if it needs changing.
Quote: steeldcojw17, sorry but I won't share it. All I can tell you is that I know nothing about the horses. I have just mined the data available and try to massage the components until I found something that seemed to work. Will it continue? I have no idea....time will tell. I'm excited over what I see so far......but then again, I'm easily exicted................
Fair enough, I was just curious. Maybe one day you will share. I was curious not to steal your formula, but if you ask 10 horse players how they pick thier horse, they will give you 10 different formula's
Arlington Park for 05/25/13
Race # Original
1 La Pinata
2 0
3 Frontier Days
4 0
5 Peso
6 0
7 Imposing Grace
8 Commando Kat
9 Hattaash
10 Brown Almighty
11 Abby's Slew
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Little Kinkaid
2 Misty Castle
3 Bin Elusive
4 Mindy Can Dance
5 Piratesinparadise
6 Sugar Spun
7 Lotta Lovin
8 Double Silver
9 Seruni
10 Fordubai
11 Mission Storm
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 Breaking Ball
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 All Stormy
10 0
11 Coaming