Live Blogging Super Saturday @ Belmont
September 29th, 2012 at 12:07:09 PM
permalink
Royal Delta just destroyed Its Tricky in the Beldame. The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic is going to be the race of the year.
Royal Delta
Awesome Feather
My Miss Aurelia
Questing
Include Me Out
I can't wait.
Up next is the Kelso.
I have To Honor and Serve who will be right around co-favorites with Shackleford. Tapizar is another decent candidate. I just have a grand slam going, so THAS just needs to show.
Royal Delta
Awesome Feather
My Miss Aurelia
Questing
Include Me Out
I can't wait.
Up next is the Kelso.
I have To Honor and Serve who will be right around co-favorites with Shackleford. Tapizar is another decent candidate. I just have a grand slam going, so THAS just needs to show.
September 29th, 2012 at 12:11:19 PM
permalink
Only 30 minutes left to register for the free Showvivor contest at Santa Anita. santaanita.com/content/showvivor
Pick one horse every day to show, last one standing wins 3K.
I'll give you a free one for today - Game on Dude
7200 people entered. So your expected value is a little under 50 cents. Of course, not everyone picks, so I'd say your expected value is around 75 cents.
Pick one horse every day to show, last one standing wins 3K.
I'll give you a free one for today - Game on Dude
7200 people entered. So your expected value is a little under 50 cents. Of course, not everyone picks, so I'd say your expected value is around 75 cents.
September 29th, 2012 at 12:33:08 PM
permalink
And, they're off in the Kelso... One mile, dirt.
All broke well
Shackleford in front as expected
THAS - last
Opening quarter was 22.54, fast
no change in position through the half mile at 45 flat.
THAS coming on the outside.
Shackleford still in first
THAS in 4th at the 1/4 pole. 1:09
Shack fading
THAS not making any ground.
Shackleford stays on for 2nd.
Jersey Town wins.
THAS finishes 4th and I'm out of my Grand Slam. Should have gone with Shackleford...
All broke well
Shackleford in front as expected
THAS - last
Opening quarter was 22.54, fast
no change in position through the half mile at 45 flat.
THAS coming on the outside.
Shackleford still in first
THAS in 4th at the 1/4 pole. 1:09
Shack fading
THAS not making any ground.
Shackleford stays on for 2nd.
Jersey Town wins.
THAS finishes 4th and I'm out of my Grand Slam. Should have gone with Shackleford...
September 29th, 2012 at 12:42:12 PM
permalink
Race 7 starts the big Pick-4.
It's the Vosburgh - 6 furlongs.
I have the 1, 3, 6, 9 in the first leg of the Pick - 4. This is the toughest race in the sequence because I think any horse can win it.
Actually, if I think anyone can win it, I should just push the ALL button.
Okay, so my Pick - 4 will be ALL / 1, 4, 8 / 2 / 1, 5 = $27
I'll also do a Pick - 3 in race 8 with 1, 4, 8 / 2 / 7 = $3
So now I'm rooting for a longshot in the Vosburgh. And I've made it to leg 2 of the Pick-4
It's the Vosburgh - 6 furlongs.
I have the 1, 3, 6, 9 in the first leg of the Pick - 4. This is the toughest race in the sequence because I think any horse can win it.
Actually, if I think anyone can win it, I should just push the ALL button.
Okay, so my Pick - 4 will be ALL / 1, 4, 8 / 2 / 1, 5 = $27
I'll also do a Pick - 3 in race 8 with 1, 4, 8 / 2 / 7 = $3
So now I'm rooting for a longshot in the Vosburgh. And I've made it to leg 2 of the Pick-4
September 29th, 2012 at 12:47:08 PM
permalink
To recap the Kelso - It serves as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. That race is pretty much the junior classic. I have no clue who is going to win that race. Shackleford will be there, but I'm not sure if he is worth betting. The winner, Jersey Town is a candidate, but he is inconsistent. To Honor and Serve doesn't seem to do well when it counts.
That'll be a tough race to handicap, but it will be competitive.
That'll be a tough race to handicap, but it will be competitive.
September 29th, 2012 at 1:03:00 PM
permalink
Only around 3000 people made picks in the Showvivor.
Game on Dude was by far the most popular pick. A little under half of all contestants picked him. If he can somehow throw a huge clunker of a race, this thing could get interesting quicker than usual.
I took Executive Privilege along with about 500 other people. She will be running in race 7.
Race 1 at Santa Anita in the books and 107 people are out when Buckleberry Grey finished out of the money.
Game on Dude was by far the most popular pick. A little under half of all contestants picked him. If he can somehow throw a huge clunker of a race, this thing could get interesting quicker than usual.
I took Executive Privilege along with about 500 other people. She will be running in race 7.
Race 1 at Santa Anita in the books and 107 people are out when Buckleberry Grey finished out of the money.
September 29th, 2012 at 1:11:57 PM
permalink
First leg of the Pick-4 in the books, and made a bad choice pressing that all button. The favorite, the 1a wins at 2-1 and my pick-4 is off to a bad start. There was a scratch, so I did save $3.
So we're off to the Flower Bowl, where I have a trio of Europeans trying to get me to the 3rd leg.
So we're off to the Flower Bowl, where I have a trio of Europeans trying to get me to the 3rd leg.
September 29th, 2012 at 1:45:35 PM
permalink
Flower Bowl.
This race preps for the Ladies Turf Classic in the BC. The ground was yielding, which it probably won't be at Santa Anita on Breeders Cup Day.
So not sure if this race says anything.
They went really slow in the first 1/2 mile. Hit it Rich was the pace setter. After 3/4 they started speeding up. A thrilling race, but Nahrain ended up winning it at 5-1. The stretch seemed to last forever, and any one of four could have won it.
So I'm halfway home in the Pick - 4. The next race should be the easiest one, with Point of Entry going at 4-5 morning line.
With my money from the scratches, I did make two extra Pick -3 bets:
1, 4, 8 / 4 / 1, 5
1, 4, 8 / 2 / 7
So we're rooting for the 2, which will give me 3 in the final leg. The 4 winning and I'm in leg 3 of the pick - 3 2 deep. If it's any of the other 4, then the Jockey Club Invitational is meaningless.
This race preps for the Ladies Turf Classic in the BC. The ground was yielding, which it probably won't be at Santa Anita on Breeders Cup Day.
So not sure if this race says anything.
They went really slow in the first 1/2 mile. Hit it Rich was the pace setter. After 3/4 they started speeding up. A thrilling race, but Nahrain ended up winning it at 5-1. The stretch seemed to last forever, and any one of four could have won it.
So I'm halfway home in the Pick - 4. The next race should be the easiest one, with Point of Entry going at 4-5 morning line.
With my money from the scratches, I did make two extra Pick -3 bets:
1, 4, 8 / 4 / 1, 5
1, 4, 8 / 2 / 7
So we're rooting for the 2, which will give me 3 in the final leg. The 4 winning and I'm in leg 3 of the pick - 3 2 deep. If it's any of the other 4, then the Jockey Club Invitational is meaningless.
September 29th, 2012 at 1:46:30 PM
permalink
Hold all tickets! Inquiry!
If there's a change, that would not be good.... It's the winner against the 3rd place finisher. An inquiry would make the 7 Zagora the winner, and I would be unhappy...
And there will be no change, whew.
If there's a change, that would not be good.... It's the winner against the 3rd place finisher. An inquiry would make the 7 Zagora the winner, and I would be unhappy...
And there will be no change, whew.
September 29th, 2012 at 2:25:12 PM
permalink
Point of Entry wins just like a 3/5 horse should. So I'm alive in the Pick-4 to Ron the Greek and Fort Larned. I'm alive in the Pick-3 to Fast Falcon.
So, we head to the 1 Million Jockey Club Gold Cup. This race has major Breeders' Cup Classic implications. A lot of good choices here, and there's about 7-8 in here that it wouldn't surprise me if they won.
My Pick-3 will pay $200 if the 7 wins.
My Pick-4 will pay about $80 to the 1 and 5.
25 minutes to post to the feature!
So, we head to the 1 Million Jockey Club Gold Cup. This race has major Breeders' Cup Classic implications. A lot of good choices here, and there's about 7-8 in here that it wouldn't surprise me if they won.
My Pick-3 will pay $200 if the 7 wins.
My Pick-4 will pay about $80 to the 1 and 5.
25 minutes to post to the feature!
September 29th, 2012 at 2:50:50 PM
permalink
It's post-time. I'm hoping to hit here, it'll give me some confidence (and money) heading into the Breeders' Cup. I have 3 horses. If I could have a 4th, it would be the 4 Hymn Book at 6-1 with Velasquez, who just keeps winning races. Here we go!
September 29th, 2012 at 2:56:20 PM
permalink
Well, that was no fun.
Flat Out beats Stay Thirsty.
One of my picks - Fort Larned, finished 3rd.
Those are both NY horses that I won't give serious consideration to in the Breeders' Cup.
Of course, I didn't give them serious consideration today.
And with that, I'm signing off...
Flat Out beats Stay Thirsty.
One of my picks - Fort Larned, finished 3rd.
Those are both NY horses that I won't give serious consideration to in the Breeders' Cup.
Of course, I didn't give them serious consideration today.
And with that, I'm signing off...
September 29th, 2012 at 5:29:19 PM
permalink
deleted
Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
September 29th, 2012 at 8:21:20 PM
permalink
Agreed, seems to be less and less of us anymore.
September 29th, 2012 at 8:42:03 PM
permalink
I was thinking of doing something similar for Breeders' Cup. Where we have a live discussion going during it.
Horse racing lends itself to being able to do something like that, because there's 2 minutes of action followed by 30 minutes of nothing. I think I could probably post after each race, if anyone else would be interested in doing the same.
I'd like to get a horse racing section on the forum outside of sports betting, but that might just be wishful thinking.
Horse racing lends itself to being able to do something like that, because there's 2 minutes of action followed by 30 minutes of nothing. I think I could probably post after each race, if anyone else would be interested in doing the same.
I'd like to get a horse racing section on the forum outside of sports betting, but that might just be wishful thinking.
September 29th, 2012 at 9:11:27 PM
permalink
I love it when I get a solid tip, which usually has to include a story. Like the horse took the overland route last time, or was blocked twice , then steadied, whatever. No bullshit I really like this horse today. give me a winning horse , damn it !
