WoV Picks Game/Bet
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/5/#post184618
The Official thread is henceforward Locked, all posts concerning the game other than Lines/Results should be relegated to this thread.
This post is just to report a screw-up on last night's lines. The SF/NYJ game was supposed to be SF -4.5 not +4.5.
This has been changed.
But with the increased number of expected bad calls from NFL referees, I doubt I can match that in Phase 2.
You won your own contest...ha ha ha
Skill, luck, variance and strategy will come into play.
My strategy...I am not sharing.
If I win, no glory for me as I get picks elsewhere.
Quote: bigpete88Does anyone want to guess what the winner of this contest winning % will be? I have a range in mind but not exact numbers. I will post a number if a few others do.
I like 62%.
Quote: SOOPOOI like 62%.
My prediction is 58%
Variance, 15+ players, and less than 100 picks is the only reason I went above 55%. I went all the way up to 66.5%.
I asked Mission to make a prop bet. Make the contest a little more interesting.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/5/#post184925
The mistake is now corrected, and I tried to make a decision on how to handle the mistake that will be as fair to everyone as possible. Please comment if you think you have a better idea.
That is a tough spot.
This was started as a friendly contest but a bet offered and accepted cannot be rescinded unless both parties agree.
See if the other side will agree as it was an honest mistake.
If there is an obvious error on the posted line, any wagers will be deemed "NO ACTION"
But your decision to let the picks stand is probably correct. We all had the opportunity to take advantage of a weak number.
Not a big deal either way. Don't sweat it.
Those folks should be allowed to make another selection.
Quote: Mission146I'm going to go with my original decision. It could be a moot issue depending on the game's outcome, anyway.
It shoulda been a MUTE Issue already.
1. Mission Pm'd me almost right away and asked if I wanted to change my pick. I still took SF at -4.5 as oppossed to +4.5, he's running this contest for fun and is voluntering his time and energy. I'm not trying to hold him (or this contest) hostage for an honest mistake. No harm no foul.
2. Had I made this bet at a Vegas sports book with real money. I'd expect them to honor the original ticket. I think they'd be obligated to honor a ticket if they took my money right?
Quote: AyecarumbaI will of course abide by your decision Mission146. However, if this circumstance should arise again, perhaps the best solution would be to leave the incorrect line up for everyone to pick if they are so inclined. It makes the playing field even.
Agreed.
Quote: vendman1As someone who initally sent a PM to Mission, in which I took advantage of the mistake in the SF vs NYJ line....I have two things to say.
1. Mission Pm'd me almost right away and asked if I wanted to change my pick. I still took SF at -4.5 as oppossed to +4.5, he's running this contest for fun and is voluntering his time and energy. I'm not trying to hold him (or this contest) hostage for an honest mistake. No harm no foul.
2. Had I made this bet at a Vegas sports book with real money. I'd expect them to honor the original ticket. I think they'd be obligated to honor a ticket if they took my money right?
Thank you, Vendman1.
If I may say this in this case, I actually misunderstood Vendman1's PM to mean that he was keeping the SF +4.5 but removing the confidence designation. That is what I was referrring to in earlier posts, so I thought I agreed to let him have it due to the mistake. I just re-read the PM (thanks to this post) and Vendman1 is essentially saying that he doesn't want the wrong line but still wants SF w/o Confidence designation.
I appreciate you doing that and taking the correct line, by the way, Vendman1!!!
In any event, there was another Player who asked about the Pick stating it could be erroneous. At that point, I had already received the PM from Vendman1, so I PM'ed Vendman1 and asked if he would be amenable to changing the Pick. I misunderstood his response and thought he was keeping the Line but dropping the confidence designation. I was going to give the person who initially reported it as an error to me the Line because he reported it and someone already took it before that.
Since Vendman1 is not taking that Line, I doubt if he will either.
I will either wear my contacts or go 125% on the screen henceforward when posting the Lines, sorry about that!
Quote: AyecarumbaI will of course abide by your decision Mission146. However, if this circumstance should arise again, perhaps the best solution would be to leave the incorrect line up for everyone to pick if they are so inclined. It makes the playing field even.
The only thing that will level the playing field would be my withdrawing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/5/#post185179
General Custer: You're advising me to go into the Coulee?
Jack Crabb: Yes sir.
General Custer: There are no Indians there, I suppose.
Jack Crabb: I didn't say that. There are thousands of Indians down there. And when they get done with you, there won't be nothing left but a greasy stain. This ain't the Washite River, General, and them ain't helpless women and children waiting for you. They're Cheyenne brave, and Sioux. You go down there, General, if you've got the nerve.
General Custer: Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner. You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really *don't* want me to go down there!
I would advise anyone to use that same logic this week. I am not posting. I will be in Vegas.
3 people have the Titans +13.5 as a confidence pick. 2 have Arizona -6 as a confidence pick.
Looks like easy money to be made betting against these confidence picks.
Quote: Mission146
In any event, there was another Player who asked about the Pick stating it could be erroneous.
I was going to give the person who initially reported it as an error to me the Line because he reported it and someone already took it before that.
Since Vendman1 is not taking that Line, I doubt if he will either.
I also do not want to take advantage of a mis-posted line (at least for this contest). On Friday I PM'd Mission that in the case the first player that had selected SF at +4.5 changed their pick because of the corrected line, or in the case the original ruling was changed, I would also change my pick. So, I just let Mission know that I will change my SF pick to NYJ +4.5. Therefore as long as everyone is agreeable, my picks will be.
St. Louis +3
New York Jets +4.5 (this is the only one I switched because the original player went with the corrected line)
New Orleans +7.5
Philadelphia -1
Cincinnati -2.5
Thank you very much for that! The matter has now become moot, however, any further mistakes in Line posting will now be resolved by leaving up the erroneous Line.
Now, where the Hell did I put my contact case?
Quote: buzzpaffJack Crabb: General, you go down there.
General Custer: You're advising me to go into the Coulee?
Jack Crabb: Yes sir.
General Custer: There are no Indians there, I suppose.
Jack Crabb: I didn't say that. There are thousands of Indians down there. And when they get done with you, there won't be nothing left but a greasy stain. This ain't the Washite River, General, and them ain't helpless women and children waiting for you. They're Cheyenne brave, and Sioux. You go down there, General, if you've got the nerve.
General Custer: Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner. You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really *don't* want me to go down there!
I would advise anyone to use that same logic this week. I am not posting. I will be in Vegas.
3 people have the Titans +13.5 as a confidence pick. 2 have Arizona -6 as a confidence pick.
Looks like easy money to be made betting against these confidence picks.
I told you so.
1 2 3 4
TEN 0 7 0 7 FINAL SCORE 38-14 ................... 23 and 1/2 would have still LOST.
HOU 14 0 14 10
If I was still hustling 9 ball. I would have to spot you guys the 5 ball. On in 14-1, give you 70 points in a game of 100.
In snooker, I would probably have to drink 6 warm beers in 15 minutes, before I chalked up.
Mission, any chance of getting some more entrants ? On another forum we have 1,000 + entrants. I am currently just a few
percentages points above some guy name Billy Wallters, but his luck can't last forever !
I
Why am i cursed to almost always be right ? LOL
Post your top picks on Friday but put out the wrong side...ha ha ha
That will confuse everyone whether you did a head fake....ah ha ha ha
Quote: buzzpaffJack Crabb: General, you go down there.
General Custer: You're advising me to go into the Coulee?
Jack Crabb: Yes sir.
General Custer: There are no Indians there, I suppose.
Jack Crabb: I didn't say that. There are thousands of Indians down there. And when they get done with you, there won't be nothing left but a greasy stain. This ain't the Washite River, General, and them ain't helpless women and children waiting for you. They're Cheyenne brave, and Sioux. You go down there, General, if you've got the nerve.
General Custer: Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner. You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really *don't* want me to go down there!
I would advise anyone to use that same logic this week. I am not posting. I will be in Vegas.
3 people have the Titans +13.5 as a confidence pick. 2 have Arizona -6 as a confidence pick.
Looks like easy money to be made betting against these confidence picks.
MISSION 146 Are you sure you posted the right lines. Titans lost by 24 and Arizona is down by 13 at the half !
Surely those lines must have been wrong. And 5 confidence bets on them... OH MY !!!!
Quote: mipletI should have made this my skip week.
The Jets sure did.
