MLB American or National

I have 2 cappers picking opposite sides. Below is the info from each capper. Which team would you choose? NL is at -125 and AL is at +105.

Capper for American:
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We have one more week left of interleague play in the 2012 season, but to be honest, we don’t need to wait for the rest of the games to play out to realize that the American League is once again putting their dominance on full display. The AL and NL have squared off in 168 of the 252 scheduled games so far, and the whippersnappers in the American League have pounded their senior circuit brethren. The current totals: 96 wins for the AL, 72 for the NL, good for a .571 winning percentage. It isn’t just a few close games going the AL’s way either, as they’ve outscored the NL 776 to 659.
With 84 games left in interleague action, the National League would have to win 54 of them to avoid a ninth consecutive losing record against the American League. Even if the NL manages a split in the remaining games, the AL would finish with 138 wins, matching their best interleague mark since 2009, and the third best mark either league has managed since interleague play began. It’s not quite as bad as it was in 2006, when the AL went 154-98, but it’s clear that the American League is still the superior league.

Big advantage for the American League

Last 15 days pitching stats

American League

IP H ER W K ERA WHIP

177.1 144 42 38 179 2.13 0.97

National League

IP H ER W K ERA WHIP

176 160 84 57 186 4.29 1.23

Last 7 days Pitching Stats

American League

IP H ER W K ERA WHIP

80.1 61 14 15 63 1.56 0.95

National League

IP H ER W K ERA WHIP

66.1 62 28 19 68 3.82 1.22

Capper for National: I like the NL staff much more than the AL Staff... I think they will
shut them down in similar fashion to last season. Also the NL has won the last 2 years and for whatever reason the MLB All Star game tends to run in streaks, hence the trend I was referring to. NL has superior pitching

There is no reason to lay -money on an event like this

The value is in the + side

Quote: bigpete88

There is no reason to lay -money on an event like this The value is in the + side

Of course

Lay the money if you want to win. The linemakers know what they are doing !

I'm thinking this has to be a horrible bet; side or total. Too many players/substitutions.

How can anyone have any idea about the outcome of an exhibition game like this?

Definitely a game for the degenerates.

Roundman,

Usually, but not always, the optimal bet size is zero. That might be the case here and it might not be. I am not sure so no bet.

I cannot argue against the stats from the AL as I am not a baseball stat guy. Also, I cannot argue with the NL fundamentals. The NL capper is up 7 units for the year but he was down 20 at one point. Would have been a rough ride but I quit using his picks after he went negative.

I remember a manager saying "The more pitchers I use, it's more likely one of them will
have a bad day, leading to lots of runs scored."

Makes sense to me.

In the All Star game, we know pitchers will be used for a few innings and replaced.
Since a "hot" pitcher will not be allowed to remain in the game and dominate,
how about a slight lean to OVER 8.5? If one is a degenerate, and must bet.

" how about a slight lean to OVER 8.5? If one is a degenerate, and must bet. "

Make as much sense as betting on NFL exhibition games ? When you need a fix, you need a fix !

Thnaks guys!!

I made a very small bet on the money line with NL plus $$. I made another small bet on AL money line -1.5 runs at +145. Will lose if the NL wins by one run. Not a big bet anyway. I will enjoy the wine more than the game.

Looks like my NL bet will win which was + money line and my AL will lose. Just enough hedge to pay for the wine :-) Thanks for the Over suggestion but I did not see value in that investment. We did look at it though. Is there something in stat history that I missed?

Can I get in on this?