Betting More Doesn't Mean Winning More (Here's Why) - GS
April 19th, 2026 at 12:15:33 AM
permalink
Betting More Doesn't Mean Winning More (Here's Why) - Gamble Smart
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QvTVaV3juw
There's a portion of the video in the middle where he compares how many spins, like 100 or 1,000 or 1 million with his little program and how the results differ per denomination for this old school slot machine. Results will vary and are not predictable. But the more spins you go, the closer to the set percentage you'll get.
For instance, losing $90K on $1 million bet on the 91% payback $1 slot is less than losing $150K on the 85% payback penny slot for $1 million bet. But for the same number of spins, you'll only lose $1.5K on the penny slot. So losses for the same number of spins would be 60X larger on the dollar denom than on the penny denom ($90K/$1.5K). His video did not make any of that clear. Having the same number of spins vs having the same number of Rewards Points should be compared here. Also, how far behind you get that you'll need 1 Major JP or 2 Major JP's etc.to get back to even on your way down was not examined.
For now I'm just giving the Dragon Link machines 100 grace spins (10 points at $5/point) of 50 cents/spin for $40 and cashing out, and most times I don't expect to even get a single Bonus Round. I'm down $150 after a few rounds, and I'm not getting the instant win sessions I was expecting, except once or twice. I'm getting paybacks of 30% to 50% without the Bonus Rounds. If I spin for $50 worth and only get $5-$15 back on my $40 of cash-in, that's about how it's going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QvTVaV3juw
There's a portion of the video in the middle where he compares how many spins, like 100 or 1,000 or 1 million with his little program and how the results differ per denomination for this old school slot machine. Results will vary and are not predictable. But the more spins you go, the closer to the set percentage you'll get.
For instance, losing $90K on $1 million bet on the 91% payback $1 slot is less than losing $150K on the 85% payback penny slot for $1 million bet. But for the same number of spins, you'll only lose $1.5K on the penny slot. So losses for the same number of spins would be 60X larger on the dollar denom than on the penny denom ($90K/$1.5K). His video did not make any of that clear. Having the same number of spins vs having the same number of Rewards Points should be compared here. Also, how far behind you get that you'll need 1 Major JP or 2 Major JP's etc.to get back to even on your way down was not examined.
For now I'm just giving the Dragon Link machines 100 grace spins (10 points at $5/point) of 50 cents/spin for $40 and cashing out, and most times I don't expect to even get a single Bonus Round. I'm down $150 after a few rounds, and I'm not getting the instant win sessions I was expecting, except once or twice. I'm getting paybacks of 30% to 50% without the Bonus Rounds. If I spin for $50 worth and only get $5-$15 back on my $40 of cash-in, that's about how it's going.
April 19th, 2026 at 1:12:37 AM
permalink
Winning $60 at 50 cents per spin is what this video is about. The Minor JP would be $50.
PHOENIX LINK CHALLENGE 🐦🔥 Gamble Smart Vs. Kansas Slots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KICYsr4eMEw
There is an absolute dearth of spins where you win at least your bet size.
The Big Jackpot shows up with a Bonus line pay that puts him at nearly $50K ahead on a $500 spin. The Minor JP would be $50K.
My Largest Jackpot Ever on $2,000,000 Dragon Link!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkvfaBzQwS4
PHOENIX LINK CHALLENGE 🐦🔥 Gamble Smart Vs. Kansas Slots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KICYsr4eMEw
There is an absolute dearth of spins where you win at least your bet size.
The Big Jackpot shows up with a Bonus line pay that puts him at nearly $50K ahead on a $500 spin. The Minor JP would be $50K.
My Largest Jackpot Ever on $2,000,000 Dragon Link!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkvfaBzQwS4
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Apr 19, 2026
April 19th, 2026 at 5:22:02 AM
permalink
Higher wagers, even with higher RTP (where RTP < 1), often means higher expected loss. You get fewer avg spins, but more avg coins in. And more risk of busting out quickly.
Also, those "mini" and "minor" jackpot/bonus prizes are completely fake on most of these games. The gaming industry, preying on people who do not math, uses them to make max bet appear "better" than other wagers. For example, the min bet is typically 50 credits and the "mini" is 1000 credits (1000x denom). When you bet 10x max multiplier (500 credits), the game replaces almost all of the 2x balls with "mini." Same value, but way different frequency. A ball that actually says 1000 credits becomes incredibly rare. They do this so that you falsely believe that you are winning more money when you get the bad reel set(s) in the feature. "Look at all the 'mini.' Max bert is hottest bert!"
A form of this idiocy can be seen irl here and here. Person who cannot basic math or gamble knowledge argues that max bet is bigger wins because more mini and bigger win in tiny sample size.
Also, those "mini" and "minor" jackpot/bonus prizes are completely fake on most of these games. The gaming industry, preying on people who do not math, uses them to make max bet appear "better" than other wagers. For example, the min bet is typically 50 credits and the "mini" is 1000 credits (1000x denom). When you bet 10x max multiplier (500 credits), the game replaces almost all of the 2x balls with "mini." Same value, but way different frequency. A ball that actually says 1000 credits becomes incredibly rare. They do this so that you falsely believe that you are winning more money when you get the bad reel set(s) in the feature. "Look at all the 'mini.' Max bert is hottest bert!"
A form of this idiocy can be seen irl here and here. Person who cannot basic math or gamble knowledge argues that max bet is bigger wins because more mini and bigger win in tiny sample size.
April 21st, 2026 at 1:24:00 AM
permalink
Winning to 250X my bet is a win goal, but it might take several jackpots as shown in one of the videos. If I raise my bets on the way, I could finish a winning session with just 120X my ongoing bets. I'm a bit vague about explaining this, but I'm trying to turn $40 into $160 for 3 extra sessions.
