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100xOdds
100xOdds
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August 30th, 2024 at 5:43:53 PM permalink
$500 Must Hit

I'm betting $5/spin and down $600 without a Bonus round.
Put in $400 more and upped my bet to $10/spin. Lost all that without a Bonus.
Put in another $1000 and played at $20.

Hit a Bonus but it was meh.
A few spins later got another Bonus! And it was a handpay!
Then got the Must Hit.

If you're running dry at one bet level, then it's going to be one of those long bad streaks.
But does changing bet levels change the seeding values of the RNG?
If not, then that means i would have gotten a Bonus at $5 bet if i just played the same # of spins as it took for the Bonus at $20??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
darkoz
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August 30th, 2024 at 6:51:06 PM permalink
I think technically the question is Moot because by switching denom you spent a millisecond or two to do it. So if you had stayed at $5, you would have hit the button a millisecond earlier and perhaps not triggered the bonus.
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Mental
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100xOddscamapl
August 30th, 2024 at 7:39:44 PM permalink
I agree with darkoz. Anything you do that affects the timing of your button pressing will change the sequence of your results. The problem is, you have no way of knowing whether any given change will improve your results or throw you into a losing streak.

Any time that you spend thinking about things that you cannot know is time you are not thinking about what is knowable and important. AP is all about making decisions about things you can control. Am I playing the right game at the right denomination with the right strategy (if any)?
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
Roberto21
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August 31st, 2024 at 7:41:15 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

$500 Must Hit

I'm betting $5/spin and down $600 without a Bonus round.
Put in $400 more and upped my bet to $10/spin. Lost all that without a Bonus.
Put in another $1000 and played at $20.

Hit a Bonus but it was meh.
A few spins later got another Bonus! And it was a handpay!
Then got the Must Hit.

If you're running dry at one bet level, then it's going to be one of those long bad streaks.
But does changing bet levels change the seeding values of the RNG?
If not, then that means i would have gotten a Bonus at $5 bet if i just played the same # of spins as it took for the Bonus at $20??
link to original post



In Australia/NZ this can certainly be the case (there can be a change to the RNG or underlying game algorithm with the selection of different play options), although I don’t know how this could affect the outcome of game play. I assume the bonus frequency is the same across the different play options. Depending on the MHB game, I have personally experienced Eagle Bucks taking 500+ spins between games and Mustang Money 2 taking 600+. And one time I wasn’t counting spins but spent $1700 to get the feature on Dollar Action on $5 bets. Personally it seems like I get more frequent bonuses when I change my bet around, though I wouldn’t dare say it’s a winning strategy or anything.
heatmap
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September 1st, 2024 at 5:45:48 AM permalink
I thought we all knew the fact that when you increase your bet level, it gives you a slightly better odds?

I thought they did this with most if not all class 3 slot machines.

If what I’m saying is true then I assume they do this by having a slightly different PAR sheet for each bet level.

If that is true This means the timing thing is slightly not relevant to this as you are also getting completely different - I hate to word it like this but “pool of results” anyways no matter what

Timing thing always holds true though with the bet adjustment I assume it didn’t matter anyways
DRich
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September 1st, 2024 at 6:00:15 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

I thought we all knew the fact that when you increase your bet level, it gives you a slightly better odds?



The general rule is that the odds can not be worse when the bet amount goes up, it does not necessarily have to be better.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
darkoz
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September 1st, 2024 at 6:13:33 AM permalink
It's anecdotal but I have seen multi denom games where at pennies I can't avoid hitting bonuses. I mean like every five minutes. Paying lousy but bonus, bonus, bonus.

Then switch to $2 (so maybe $1 to $50 a spin) and suddenly it takes a half hour for a bonus if you don't lose your shirt first.

It's happened enough times to me (anecdotally about 10 times) that yeah it seems they use a different methodology between denoms
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Mental
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Mooseton
September 1st, 2024 at 6:24:27 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: heatmap

I thought we all knew the fact that when you increase your bet level, it gives you a slightly better odds?



The general rule is that the odds can not be worse when the bet amount goes up, it does not necessarily have to be better.
link to original post


The only regulations I have seen agree with DRich's comment.

I have read hundreds of help screens for online slot games. The only time I ever see any difference in RTP based on bet level is when you are buying a bonus for different multiples of the base bet. I cannot recall a single instance where the RTP of the base game depends on bet level.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
darkoz
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Mukke
September 1st, 2024 at 9:04:55 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: DRich

Quote: heatmap

I thought we all knew the fact that when you increase your bet level, it gives you a slightly better odds?



The general rule is that the odds can not be worse when the bet amount goes up, it does not necessarily have to be better.
link to original post


The only regulations I have seen agree with DRich's comment.

I have read hundreds of help screens for online slot games. The only time I ever see any difference in RTP based on bet level is when you are buying a bonus for different multiples of the base bet. I cannot recall a single instance where the RTP of the base game depends on bet level.
link to original post



The odds cannot be worse but the methods can be different. I have seen this.

For example the bonuses at higher denoms will pay really well making it better odds. But the repetition of getting them is more spaced out.

At lower denoms I see a lot more bonuses but they pay crap.

Anyway I do admit this anecdotal based on personal experience over the years so...
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Mukke
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September 1st, 2024 at 9:47:00 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Any time that you spend thinking about things that you cannot know is time you are not thinking about what is knowable and important. AP is all about making decisions about things you can control. Am I playing the right game at the right denomination with the right strategy (if any)?
link to original post



I feel this should be framed somewhere!
rxwine
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September 1st, 2024 at 10:03:50 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

It's anecdotal but I have seen multi denom games where at pennies I can't avoid hitting bonuses. I mean like every five minutes. Paying lousy but bonus, bonus, bonus.

Then switch to $2 (so maybe $1 to $50 a spin) and suddenly it takes a half hour for a bonus if you don't lose your shirt first.]



Generally, if I see a bank of slots full of people for quite awhile then the bonuses are coming in regularly at all the different bet levels. Assuming you can see what bet level they’re playing.

This is if I know nothing about the game they’re playing. So, many newer games have a wide level of betting, so you can have big bettors and small at the same bank.
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Mental
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September 1st, 2024 at 10:27:12 AM permalink
I am having trouble with the theory that a game designer works for months finding the right balance of bonus size and bonus payouts to provide the optimum level of anticipation and excitement. Then, they decide to spend time doing some additional code development and testing just so they can offer another version of the game with an inferior playing experience. Of course, they have to do extra work during the game approval process, too.

I wonder if they foist the inferior gaming experience on the high-denom players or the low rollers.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
darkoz
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September 1st, 2024 at 10:46:21 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

I am having trouble with the theory that a game designer works for months finding the right balance of bonus size and bonus payouts to provide the optimum level of anticipation and excitement. Then, they decide to spend time doing some additional code development and testing just so they can offer another version of the game with an inferior playing experience. Of course, they have to do extra work during the game approval process, too.

I wonder if they foist the inferior gaming experience on the high-denom players or the low rollers.
link to original post



Well I am not.

People do all types of things that seem nuts.

Just a day or two ago I would have said I find the theory that some officers might bump into people on the streets of Las Vegas just to cause a fight as a form of entrapment to be far fetched.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Dieter
Administrator
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September 1st, 2024 at 11:07:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mukke

Quote: Mental

Any time that you spend thinking about things that you cannot know is time you are not thinking about what is knowable and important. AP is all about making decisions about things you can control. Am I playing the right game at the right denomination with the right strategy (if any)?
link to original post



I feel this should be framed somewhere!
link to original post



Cross stitch sampler?
May the cards fall in your favor.
MDawg
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September 1st, 2024 at 1:25:18 PM permalink
Mental spent quite a bit of time trying to figure out what he thought he could know in my thread. So I don’t whom he’s talking about here in this thread maybe about a friend of his.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
DRich
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September 1st, 2024 at 4:23:55 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

I am having trouble with the theory that a game designer works for months finding the right balance of bonus size and bonus payouts to provide the optimum level of anticipation and excitement. Then, they decide to spend time doing some additional code development and testing just so they can offer another version of the game with an inferior playing experience. Of course, they have to do extra work during the game approval process, too.

I wonder if they foist the inferior gaming experience on the high-denom players or the low rollers.
link to original post



I don't know many companies that have spent a lot of time analyzing that way. Generally we just look at the games that have been successful in the past and use similar probabilities and payouts.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Sillyskilly
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September 5th, 2024 at 11:32:20 AM permalink
Theirs definitely a change that happens when playing multi-card Keno. Increasing bet amount and or denom value after 50+ plays of straight garbage for the better. Especially if the game is doing very well, any increase will ALWAYS kill your game!
Slotenthusiast
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September 5th, 2024 at 9:44:34 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

$500 Must Hit

I'm betting $5/spin and down $600 without a Bonus round.
Put in $400 more and upped my bet to $10/spin. Lost all that without a Bonus.
Put in another $1000 and played at $20.

Hit a Bonus but it was meh.
A few spins later got another Bonus! And it was a handpay!
Then got the Must Hit.

If you're running dry at one bet level, then it's going to be one of those long bad streaks.
But does changing bet levels change the seeding values of the RNG?
If not, then that means i would have gotten a Bonus at $5 bet if i just played the same # of spins as it took for the Bonus at $20??
link to original post



The total RTP is singular and tied to the machine not specific bet levels.

That’s why I don’t like wolf run eclipse. It’s multi denom as well as being tied to a huge progressive. If someone hits big on a high denom bet it destroys the RTP for all the other bet levels. IE you find a 30 mini on $1.60 and still lose your ass.
darkoz
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September 6th, 2024 at 3:31:18 AM permalink
Quote: Slotenthusiast

Quote: 100xOdds

$500 Must Hit

I'm betting $5/spin and down $600 without a Bonus round.
Put in $400 more and upped my bet to $10/spin. Lost all that without a Bonus.
Put in another $1000 and played at $20.

Hit a Bonus but it was meh.
A few spins later got another Bonus! And it was a handpay!
Then got the Must Hit.

If you're running dry at one bet level, then it's going to be one of those long bad streaks.
But does changing bet levels change the seeding values of the RNG?
If not, then that means i would have gotten a Bonus at $5 bet if i just played the same # of spins as it took for the Bonus at $20??
link to original post



The total RTP is singular and tied to the machine not specific bet levels.

link to original post



That's right. Which means they must CHANGE the mechanism for RTP per bet level.

Let's take that Bull Cash or whatever it's called (usually has a dragon game skin as well).

I have seen the most spread to be $5 minimum spin to max $200 at highest denom.

So basically one $200 spin moves the major meter 26 cents. And the coin in equivalent of $5 would also move the meter 26 cents. That's 40 spins at $5.

One spin at $200 can easily be a total loser. The reels add up to nothing and a $200 loss. I have even seen five losers in a row. Yep, five spins and $1000 lost.

THAT MEANS the person betting $5, moving the meter the same would have to experience 40 straight complete zero losses to lose that singular spin equivalent. 200 straight complete zero losses to equal a common five spin losing streak at max bet.

And I have simply never seen a slot that goes 200 spins without winning a penny (although that new Frankenstein game sure makes it feel that way lol).

Therefore logic dictates there has to be a different set of payout mechanisms for each bet level in order to arrive at the same RTP sharing a singular Must Hit with the difference being made up by RTP of individual spins being altered.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Mental
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September 6th, 2024 at 6:54:03 AM permalink
There is no difference in the RTP between one bet level of Cash Bull and another bet level. The prizes are scaled to the bet level. All symbol probabilities can be the same across all bet levels and the resulting RTP from the base game will be the same at all bet levels.

The RTP of the progressive takes care of itself. At $5 a spin, you have 1/40th the probability of triggering the mystery progressive versus $200 a spin, so the progressive RTP is essentially the same for both levels. There is a microscopic difference in EV because you will overshoot the trigger level by less if you are betting a smaller amount.

I was playing a WMS game for a $500 progressive. WMS advances the meter by 0.6% of on coin out. Near the MH level, I filled the screen with the top symbol. The $2500 payout from the base game advanced the meter to $512. So, I overshot the MH trigger level by at least $12. It is actually slightly higher EV to play a MH at lower denomination to avoid overshooting the mystery trigger value.

More importantly, it is illegal to make a simple reel slot machine pay out more or less based on past history. The exception to this is if there is a clear persistent state built into the game rules. Think Scarab. All this anecdotal 'evidence' doesn't alter my opinion at all. Humans just like to find patterns in randomness.

If there was a mechanism built into slot machines to balance out the actual payouts, you would have an AP play by just playing machines that had been cold in recent history. I know of no APs who operate on the principle because the past history does not affect the payouts of a slot machine.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
darkoz
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September 6th, 2024 at 8:09:08 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

There is no difference in the RTP between one bet level of Cash Bull and another bet level. The prizes are scaled to the bet level. All symbol probabilities can be the same across all bet levels and the resulting RTP from the base game will be the same at all bet levels.

The RTP of the progressive takes care of itself. At $5 a spin, you have 1/40th the probability of triggering the mystery progressive versus $200 a spin, so the progressive RTP is essentially the same for both levels. There is a microscopic difference in EV because you will overshoot the trigger level by less if you are betting a smaller amount.

I was playing a WMS game for a $500 progressive. WMS advances the meter by 0.6% of on coin out. Near the MH level, I filled the screen with the top symbol. The $2500 payout from the base game advanced the meter to $512. So, I overshot the MH trigger level by at least $12. It is actually slightly higher EV to play a MH at lower denomination to avoid overshooting the mystery trigger value.

More importantly, it is illegal to make a simple reel slot machine pay out more or less based on past history. The exception to this is if there is a clear persistent state built into the game rules. Think Scarab. All this anecdotal 'evidence' doesn't alter my opinion at all. Humans just like to find patterns in randomness.

If there was a mechanism built into slot machines to balance out the actual payouts, you would have an AP play by just playing machines that had been cold in recent history. I know of no APs who operate on the principle because the past history does not affect the payouts of a slot machine.
link to original post



How is the probability for hitting the MH 1/40th? Isn't the trigger preset when the MH resets?

So let's say MH just reset and the trigger is the actual highest amount of $15,999.99 on Cash bull.

The probability of hitting the MH on any denom or wager is zero. The $5 can't hit, neither can $200.

Conversely once the machine gets to $15,999.98 the probability is the same 100% for hitting at all wager sizes.

As for the hot/cold, that is NOT what I was stating. I'm simply stating that losing five spins in a row isn't unheard of. At $200 a spin that's $1000 lost. To get the same meter movement at $5 would require 200 consecutive losing spins. And I have never seen THAT happen.

So somehow, somewhere there has to be a means of making the difference.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Mental
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September 6th, 2024 at 8:48:48 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: Mental

There is no difference in the RTP between one bet level of Cash Bull and another bet level. The prizes are scaled to the bet level. All symbol probabilities can be the same across all bet levels and the resulting RTP from the base game will be the same at all bet levels.

The RTP of the progressive takes care of itself. At $5 a spin, you have 1/40th the probability of triggering the mystery progressive versus $200 a spin, so the progressive RTP is essentially the same for both levels. There is a microscopic difference in EV because you will overshoot the trigger level by less if you are betting a smaller amount.

I was playing a WMS game for a $500 progressive. WMS advances the meter by 0.6% of on coin out. Near the MH level, I filled the screen with the top symbol. The $2500 payout from the base game advanced the meter to $512. So, I overshot the MH trigger level by at least $12. It is actually slightly higher EV to play a MH at lower denomination to avoid overshooting the mystery trigger value.

More importantly, it is illegal to make a simple reel slot machine pay out more or less based on past history. The exception to this is if there is a clear persistent state built into the game rules. Think Scarab. All this anecdotal 'evidence' doesn't alter my opinion at all. Humans just like to find patterns in randomness.

If there was a mechanism built into slot machines to balance out the actual payouts, you would have an AP play by just playing machines that had been cold in recent history. I know of no APs who operate on the principle because the past history does not affect the payouts of a slot machine.
link to original post



How is the probability for hitting the MH 1/40th? Isn't the trigger preset when the MH resets?

So let's say MH just reset and the trigger is the actual highest amount of $15,999.99 on Cash bull.

The probability of hitting the MH on any denom or wager is zero. The $5 can't hit, neither can $200.

Conversely once the machine gets to $15,999.98 the probability is the same 100% for hitting at all wager sizes.

As for the hot/cold, that is NOT what I was stating. I'm simply stating that losing five spins in a row isn't unheard of. At $200 a spin that's $1000 lost. To get the same meter movement at $5 would require 200 consecutive losing spins. And I have never seen THAT happen.

So somehow, somewhere there has to be a means of making the difference.
link to original post


You are mixing RTP or expected value with actual results.

If I am betting black on roulette for $200, then it is easy for me to win or lose $200 on a spin. It is almost impossible for me to win or lose $200 on 40 spins at $5 a spin. EV or RTP is the same for 1x$200 or 40x$5. The roulette wheel doesn't have 'a means of making the difference'. It just produces quasi-random results independent of the previous spin.

Quote:

So let's say MH just reset and the trigger is the actual highest amount of $15,999.99 on Cash bull.



If you cannot and do not know the exact trigger point, then you can only talk about probabilities for the jackpot hitting. Let's assume the trigger value is unknown to the player. If you bet $200, you are almost exactly 40 times more likely to trigger the jackpot on the next spin versus a $5 bet.

Once you get the meter above $15,990, the ratio deviates slightly from 40:1 due to the overshoot phenomenon I mentioned.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
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