Doc
Doc
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November 9th, 2010 at 9:22:29 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

... In my mind, taking a multi-line penny machine from 92% to 90% on a Saturday evening isn't much different than taking a dice table from $5 to $10. ...

I disagree. I feel that changing the slot machine from 92% to 90% on a Saturday evening is more akin to changing the craps payout on the field bet from triple on 12 to double on 12 for Saturday evenings. Upping the table minimum would be more like making the penny slot a 2-cent or nickel minimum per line on Saturday night. In one case you are raising the minimum stakes; in the other you are changing the house advantage of the wager.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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November 9th, 2010 at 10:04:00 AM permalink
Sort of. In slots, you're not changing the paytables but the reel weights. The equivalent would be loading the dice to make 7s show up more, which is illegal. The only lever you have to change the EV of a table game is the payouts. In slots, you can tweak the payouts and/or the probabilities. When a slot game is designed, it comes with one paytable but several math models in varying percentages -- 94%, 92%, 90%, etc. The change is almost imperceptible to the casual player, though regulars can tell.

Either way, slot players haven't shown a willingness to tolerate higher limits while table players have. So you take a slot game, keep the denom and decrease the odds, while you take a table game, keep the odds but increase the limits. In either case, from the casino's perspective, revenue goes up. That's why I said they're equivalent.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 9th, 2010 at 5:06:13 PM permalink
Changing the limits is different from changing the rules. You don't see casinos making blackjack rules worse at busy times, but indeed, they will raise the limits. When I said there is some optimal return per business, I meant for each individual business. The profit-maximizing return for the airport slots is not the same as that for the Palms. However, if 94% is right at 8:00 A.M. on a Wednesday morning for 5¢ slots at the Palms, then it is right for 8:00 P.M. on a Saturday night, at least in my opinion.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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November 9th, 2010 at 5:35:37 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Changing the limits is different from changing the rules. You don't see casinos making blackjack rules worse at busy times, but indeed, they will raise the limits. When I said there is some optimal return per business, I meant for each individual business. The profit-maximizing return for the airport slots is not the same as that for the Palms. However, if 94% is right at 8:00 A.M. on a Wednesday morning for 5¢ slots at the Palms, then it is right for 8:00 P.M. on a Saturday night, at least in my opinion.



It is doubtful the Manager who decides the floor mix cares at all about doing what's "right". I think they are looking to maximize the hold for the casino and will use all the tools at their disposal to do it. The ability to change "chips" via a central server is a huge benefit to the casino, and offers no benefit to the player. I would not be surprised if the percentages were "tweaked", by day and time, to try to hit certain target revenue marks, since that is how I would do it. It makes sense that you can be more liberal when the volume of play supports more pay outs.

Of course if folks get wise to the stiff machines and don't play at all, the logical thing is that the machines would be loosened up in an attempt to build volume (or totally stiffened to maximize whatever was put into them, ala the airport). This would be like all BJ players refusing to play 6:5. They would have to be replaced if no one played.

I think the floor mix managers without central server systems are already "tweaking" the games; but with a method that is much slower. They vary the mix of machines and returns available to try to optimize the total volume of play vs. payouts. The only reason they don't do it on a day to day basis is the amount of work required to switch out chips and move machines. However, there were certainly adjustments made prior to big conventions, or busy holidays.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 9th, 2010 at 5:41:51 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

The only reason they don't do it on a day to day basis is the amount of work required to switch out chips and move machines. However, there were certainly adjustments made prior to big conventions, or busy holidays.



May I ask how you know?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
NightStalker
NightStalker
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November 9th, 2010 at 6:00:38 PM permalink
Why should i post my secret winning formulae on this site?

Allright, there you go:::

Time of day = h:m:s
Date = yy/mm/dd

sqrt(sq(dd)+sq(s)) + sqrt(sq(mm)+sq(m)) + sqrt(sq(yy)+sq(h))
- sqrt(sq(dd)-sq(s)) - sqrt(sq(mm)-sq(m)) - sqrt(sq(yy)- sq(h))

is a multiple of 1000.

This is the only lucky time and date when all slots throw out money.. If you are smart enough to find out that lucky time and date, you better wasting your time on this thread.. Go get your share :P :P
EvenBob
EvenBob
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November 9th, 2010 at 6:05:17 PM permalink
There was a guy at the roulette table the other day who always bet 17 and 20 on every spin. He was serious when he said its because they hit more than the other numbers, thats why so many people bet on them. I explained the reason they get bet on a lot is they're exactly in the middle of the layout. He looked at me disgustedly like I had a big wad of dog crap on the bottom of my shoe. Just when I think I've learned to keep my mouth shut, I disappoint myself. At the same table there was a Native American in his 60's telling the table that the White man killed 300 million Indians in the US. A laugh burst out of me, it was not controllable. I didn't say a word, I kept my mouth shut. Ignorance is bliss is my motto.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
miplet
miplet
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November 9th, 2010 at 6:14:54 PM permalink
Quote: NightStalker

Why should i post my secret winning formulae on this site?

Allright, there you go:::

Time of day = h:m:s
Date = yy/mm/dd

sqrt(sq(dd)+sq(s)) + sqrt(sq(mm)+sq(m)) + sqrt(sq(yy)+sq(h))
- sqrt(sq(dd)-sq(s)) - sqrt(sq(mm)-sq(m)) - sqrt(sq(yy)- sq(h))

is a multiple of 1000.

This is the only lucky time and date when all slots throw out money.. If you are smart enough to find out that lucky time and date, you better wasting your time on this thread.. Go get your share :P :P


March 13th, 2011, 2:21:25am is the next lucky time according to your formula.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 9th, 2010 at 7:04:32 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

May I ask how you know?



I've wondered, in the past, just why I couldn't ever win on a Friday night. I was playing video poker, so the matter of EPROMS didn't arise, but I simply got tired of getting pounded into the ground whenever I ventured forth on a Friday night, so that became family eat out and go to a movie night instead. A number of friends who were slot players said that their results were almost uniformly terrible on Friday nights. Would there have been a rational reason for this effect? No. Did it talk quite a few people out of playing? Yes. My best play result days were Tuesday, Monday, and Wednesday, in that order. My worst were Friday, Saturday, and Thursday, in that order. Obviously, any suspicion I would have of the VP machines being diddled with would carry the attendant assumption that the machines were nonrandom in the first place. I just simply wouldn't play any more when there was smoke, whether or not I could see fire as well.

It's not unlike if you sit down at a blackjack table and lose nineteen out of twenty hands. Is the dealer cheating you? Almost certainly not. However, has the likelihood of your being cheated increased from the moment you sat down? Yes (by some finite amount). Therefore, you may as well switch tables.

I do think that when it becomes simple and easy to tweak the payback percentages from a central server, the casinos will tighten and loosen the machines on a constant and regular basis. The revenue-enhancing potential of such a move makes me think that they have been doing this the old-fashioned way for some time now---it would be SO worth the effort to do so.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Doc
Doc
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November 9th, 2010 at 7:29:37 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

March 13th, 2011, 2:21:25am is the next lucky time according to your formula.

Now, if we could just figure out which casino this applies to (surely they are not all coordinated), we could reschedule WoVCon, get a big group together, and .....

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