WalterW
WalterW
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January 19th, 2019 at 3:15:42 PM permalink
I was playing Ainsworth's Action Dragons progressive slot. The minor jackpot is must hit by $500, I started playing at $473.59, hit it at $496.64, resulting in a net loss of $2872.61.
If the jackpot hits in a purely random fashion, I should expect a 94.42% return.
However, I feel the return is much lower than that because the jackpot doesn't seem to hit at a lower amount. If that's the case, the return should be about 89%.
Is it fake random?

Details:

Denomination=1¢. Played $5/spin.(50 Lines, 10x Bet)
Minor must hit by $500, meter rate=$5/¢. Minor Resets at $250.
Major must hit by $5000, meter rate=$5.5/¢.

I started playing when minor was $473.59, major was $4590.93.
Hit minor at $496.64, major stopped at $4611.67.
I coined-in $11524 total, was down $3600 at most, final net loss=$2872.61.
Minor jackpot triggered with nothing. Minor Jackpot resets at $250.


Calculation for the 94.42% return:

Penny progressive slot return without jackpots = 85%

minor max-minor current=$500-$473.59=$26.41
$26.41=2641¢
2641¢*$5/¢=$13205 maximum coin-in to hit the minor jackpot

Major max-major current=$5000-$4590.93=$409.07
$409.07=40907¢
40907¢*$5.5/¢=$224988.5 maximum coin-in to hit the major jackpot

If the jackpot will be hit in a purely random way,
Midpoint coin-in for minor jackpot=$13205/2=$6605.5
Midpoint jackpot=$473.59+($26.41/2)=$486.795
Minor jackpot/midpoint coin-in=$486.795/$6605.5=7.37% return contribution from minor jackpot

Minor jackpot midpoint coin-in/major jackpot meter rate=$6605.5/$5.5/¢=$12.01
Major jackpot if hit=$4590.93+$12.01≈$4602.94
$6605.5/$224988.5=2.94%
$4602.94*2.94%=$135.326
$135.326/$6605.5=2.05% return contribution from major jackpot

Overall return≈ 85%+7.37%+2.05%=94.42%



I'm new to progressive slots, so my calculation has flaws.
I calculated wrong, that's what made me play it in the first place, it's a good hard lesson for me.
Last edited by: WalterW on Jan 19, 2019
DogHand
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January 19th, 2019 at 3:29:35 PM permalink
WalterW,

You assumed "Penny progressive slot return without jackpots = 85%".

This seems rather high to me: I would be more inclined to believe that the total return with progressives is in the 85% range for penny slots.

Do you have any reason to believe that the non-progressive return is that high on the penny slots?

Dog Hand
beachbumbabs
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January 19th, 2019 at 3:31:12 PM permalink
I think you're making an unjustified assumption that all points from reset to must-hit are equally weighted events. It's the difference between can it? Yes. And will it? Probably not.

Take the NBA draft, which may or may not still work this way. The year Shaq was an inbound rookie, Orlando was the worst team. They got 16 balls in the lotto hopper for who picked first. The next worst team got 15 or less. And less from there, as team records improved. The Bulls, who were either Champs or in the finals that year, still got 1. (Too lazy to look it up)

Could the Bulls have gotten the right to draft O'Neal? Yes. Would they? Very unlikely, and they didn't. The Magic got him.

So every spin there's a subroutine that says (maybe, I don't write the programs), pay the Minor if it's at or above xxx.xx . Maybe there are a thousand random choices in that subroutine. Maybe 900 of them say pay at or above $499.65 or so. And another 80 say pay above a lower threshold, like 496.00 and the other 20 say pay above a lower threshold, with one that equals the reset amount.

So, is it random? Yes. Is it equally weighted? No.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
WalterW
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January 19th, 2019 at 6:58:57 PM permalink
Thanks, I think it works in a similar way than you've described.
Is there any progressive jackpot that has equally weighted chance of being hit? Any example?
I've observed some progressives and none of them seem to drop below near the top.
WalterW
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January 19th, 2019 at 7:05:22 PM permalink
No, I do not know the base return, I can't obtain that info.
The 85% base return assumption is from here:
https://www.advantageslots.com/must-hit-by-progressives-do-these-calculations-to-know-if-you-should-play/
The blogger has some good general idea to increase odds, but I doubt the accuracy of his article. According to his certain methods, the odds do increase, but might not increase to a point that's over the breakeven point, so games are still not playable.
tringlomane
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January 19th, 2019 at 9:22:49 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I think you're making an unjustified assumption that all points from reset to must-hit are equally weighted events. It's the difference between can it? Yes. And will it? Probably not.

Take the NBA draft, which may or may not still work this way. The year Shaq was an inbound rookie, Orlando was the worst team. They got 16 balls in the lotto hopper for who picked first. The next worst team got 15 or less. And less from there, as team records improved. The Bulls, who were either Champs or in the finals that year, still got 1. (Too lazy to look it up)

Could the Bulls have gotten the right to draft O'Neal? Yes. Would they? Very unlikely, and they didn't. The Magic got him.

So every spin there's a subroutine that says (maybe, I don't write the programs), pay the Minor if it's at or above xxx.xx . Maybe there are a thousand random choices in that subroutine. Maybe 900 of them say pay at or above $499.65 or so. And another 80 say pay above a lower threshold, like 496.00 and the other 20 say pay above a lower threshold, with one that equals the reset amount.

So, is it random? Yes. Is it equally weighted? No.



You bungled that NBA draft analogy up a bit. The NBA draft lottery only dealt with the 11 teams that failed to make the playoffs. And the Magic were the 2nd worst record in the league that year and had a 10 out of 66 chance of getting Shaq. But the the very next year they ALMOST made the playoffs with Shaq, and therefore, only had a 1 of 66 chance of getting the number one pick. Well, guess what happened? The next year, they changed the lottery odds.

As for the OP, what are all the hit points for Ainsworth?

Couldn't you have just got unlucky here?

I thought Ainsworth was "fair" when it came to these.
WalterW
WalterW
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January 19th, 2019 at 10:37:14 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

As for the OP, what are all the hit points for Ainsworth?

Couldn't you have just got unlucky here?

I thought Ainsworth was "fair" when it came to these.



What is hit point?

Yes, I was unlucky, my expected loss should be around $1000, but I lost $2800+. It should be normal since these kinds of slots have a huge variance.

What's your definition of fair?
The probability of hitting jackpot is not evenly distributed from reset to the top point, but I guess it's the norm for these type of machines so it's fair to me. I fell into the trap and can't blame the machine.
onenickelmiracle
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January 19th, 2019 at 11:26:27 PM permalink
I'm kind of suspicious, but not very suspicious. Usually some idiot with a **** on for betting $.40 grabs the minors. It's a small sample personally don't think majors are worth it unless ridicoulosly close.
I am a robot.
beachbumbabs
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January 20th, 2019 at 2:40:01 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

You bungled that NBA draft analogy up a bit. The NBA draft lottery only dealt with the 11 teams that failed to make the playoffs. And the Magic were the 2nd worst record in the league that year and had a 10 out of 66 chance of getting Shaq. But the the very next year they ALMOST made the playoffs with Shaq, and therefore, only had a 1 of 66 chance of getting the number one pick. Well, guess what happened? The next year, they changed the lottery odds.

As for the OP, what are all the hit points for Ainsworth?

Couldn't you have just got unlucky here?

I thought Ainsworth was "fair" when it came to these.



Fair enough. I should have looked it up. It's only 20 years ago or so. You'd think I'd remember how it went. Lol...
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DRich
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January 20th, 2019 at 6:28:00 AM permalink
You need to think of Must Hit slots like the wheel on Wheel of Fortune. Although there are 22 slices on the wheel the 1000 spot doesn't hit as often as the 100 spot. They are definitely weighted to the top end as Babs describes. As she said, they are still completely random just the hit point is weighted to the top.

All Must Hits work this way.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
sabre
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January 20th, 2019 at 4:57:41 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

You need to think of Must Hit slots like the wheel on Wheel of Fortune. Although there are 22 slices on the wheel the 1000 spot doesn't hit as often as the 100 spot. They are definitely weighted to the top end as Babs describes. As she said, they are still completely random just the hit point is weighted to the top.

All Must Hits work this way.



Lol, no
beachbumbabs
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January 20th, 2019 at 5:14:32 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

Lol, no



Well, you can probably get away with "lol, no" to me, but you're talking to someone who does write slot programs (and has disclosed that on here before). I expect he wouldn't have said that if he didn't know it. Whacha got besides "lol, no"?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
WalterW
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January 20th, 2019 at 6:00:11 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

All Must Hits work this way.



Wow, I thought SOME work this way, didn't expect ALL. I guess the edge only exists when the meter is extremely close to the top.
djatc
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January 20th, 2019 at 7:26:00 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

Lol, no



i'll bet whatever Drich said against you
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tringlomane
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January 21st, 2019 at 12:05:07 AM permalink
Quote: WalterW

What is hit point?

Yes, I was unlucky, my expected loss should be around $1000, but I lost $2800+. It should be normal since these kinds of slots have a huge variance.

What's your definition of fair?
The probability of hitting jackpot is not evenly distributed from reset to the top point, but I guess it's the norm for these type of machines so it's fair to me. I fell into the trap and can't blame the machine.



I wrote my response quickly and poorly. I meant to say. "What were the values of all the Ainsworth majors and minors you have hit?" Just because the Ainsworth hit at ~$496 once, it doesn't mean the chances of it hitting are "unbalanced" like AGS machines... It's possible you simply got unlucky.
ck1313
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:14:41 AM permalink
https://i.imgur.com/QWRBmIb.jpg
Hopefully this picture worked. I hit this the other day and it still had a ways to go.
It was 4864.11 if you can't see the picture.
mamat
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February 22nd, 2019 at 8:00:42 PM permalink
Quote: WalterW

Overall return≈ 85%+7.37%+2.05%=94.42%

For Ainsworth penny 5Ks, lowest base game return I've seen <81%. Highest is ~93%.
That 12% difference is massive.
At 81%, $489.50 is roughly break-even, and I'd probably play $492-494.
At 93%, $471.50 is roughly break-even, and I'd probably play $478-483 (unless playing for marketing benefits, multiple point promotions, etc...)

Lifetime overall return of a slot machine = 85% to 97% (Penny 5Ks that I've seen.)

At 81%, 473.59 minor is a theoretical -$768 loss (not counting chance of dropping major, points, or marketing benefits).
At 93%, 473.59 minor is a theoretical +$35 win (...).

P.S. Assumes typical $556/500 meters (0.18%/0.2%). Once I saw $2,000/667 meters on an Ainsworth 5K (0.05%/0.15%).
smurgerburger
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March 14th, 2019 at 10:29:08 PM permalink
There was a 12.7% chance it would go as high as it did or higher from your original starting point. (26.41 left on the meter, 3.36 left on the meter when it actually hit, 3.36/26.41 = 12.7%). This is assuming random equally weighted hit points.

So no, that doesn't tell you anything.
mamat
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March 14th, 2019 at 11:34:55 PM permalink
Quote: WalterW

I was playing Ainsworth's Action Dragons progressive slot. The minor jackpot is must hit by $500, I started playing at $473.59, hit it at $496.64, resulting in a net loss of $2872.61.

Here's another issue. Variance.

On my worst $500 minor, I spent -$9,600 to hit it.
On my best $500 minor, I won over $16,000 (and NOT by dropping the major or other progressive).

The base game on an Ainsworth can play <30% for a long time.
One time on $12,700 coin-in, I lost -$10K (moved major $18). That's a 17% base game.
Another time on $14,000 coin-in, I lost -$10K (moved major $21). 29% base game.

Konami's have MUCH more variance than Ainsworths.
Sandybestdog
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March 23rd, 2019 at 12:45:06 AM permalink
My numbers are pretty similar. Time after time I play these and lose. Everytime they hold exactly 30%. I think my worst I took at $388. I was down $2400 on that when it hit. Iíve lost $1500+ so many times these. A couple of times I have hit good bonus rounds.
AxelWolf
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March 23rd, 2019 at 2:19:22 AM permalink
Quote: mamat


One time on $12,700 coin-in, I lost -$10K (moved major $18). \

WTF?? I would be like...um... check your pockets.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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