gamerfreak
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December 8th, 2016 at 4:17:28 AM permalink
I've had an unusual interest with gambling and casinos ever since I was a child. Not so much the act, but the topic itself. My closet is overflowing with books from this list. I consume content from GWAE, AP heat, and this site on a daily basis, and I feel I have a decent handle on gambling math.

Despite this borderline obsession, I'm not an AP. Quite the opposite actually. Most of my casino time is spent on not only slots, but large flashy modern themed slots. I know these are among the worst bets in a casino, but I genuinely enjoy the games with great theming, and the comps that come along with slot play.

The interesting part is, I'm a few hundred ahead on these games lifetime. I'm not under any illusion that it's anything other than blind, stupid luck, or that this will continue forever ... but right now I'm ahead and getting increasingly better comps. Ploppy train full steam ahead!!!!
sabre
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hailtotheskins
December 8th, 2016 at 6:31:30 AM permalink
You're not going to find many non APs ahead lifetime on slots. The typical house edge is ENORMOUS compared to games like blackjack or most video poker. Only people who haven't played many hours or have hit some huge jackpot relative to their average bet size have any shot of being up.
RS
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December 8th, 2016 at 8:45:44 AM permalink
You're ahead lifetime on slots? Do you mix it up or is it all penny slots? Do you include comps in your "being ahead", like food, rooms, etc.? Do you keep truly honest and fair records? Barring something extremely out of the ordinary happening (like hitting a $10k must hit when playing $0.80/spin), with relatively little lifetime play.......I'm a bit suspicious, to say the least.

Unless you keep accurate records of all play, not much to go on. I keep records of all my play (tables, slots, video poker, sports, misc.). Last year, near the end, I thought I was losing quite a bit. When I went through my records I figured out I was actually ahead way more than I thought I was behind. The brain plays funny tricks on you, making you think you're ahead when you're really behind, or vice versa.
AxelWolf
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December 8th, 2016 at 11:45:49 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I've had an unusual interest with gambling and casinos ever since I was a child. Not so much the act, but the topic itself. My closet is overflowing with books from this list. I consume content from GWAE, AP heat, and this site on a daily basis, and I feel I have a decent handle on gambling math.

Despite this borderline obsession, I'm not an AP. Quite the opposite actually. Most of my casino time is spent on not only slots, but large flashy modern themed slots. I know these are among the worst bets in a casino, but I genuinely enjoy the games with great theming, and the comps that come along with slot play.

The interesting part is, I'm a few hundred ahead on these games lifetime. I'm not under any illusion that it's anything other than blind, stupid luck, or that this will continue forever ... but right now I'm ahead and getting increasingly better comps. Ploppy train full steam ahead!!!!

What does lifetime include? Once a month for 20 minutes with a $20 here and there, or daily play with a few bills?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
billryan
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December 8th, 2016 at 12:11:21 PM permalink
My first trip to AC, playing $1 WOF, I hit for $2700 and $1800, then hit a strange Double Diamond machine that had a diamond mine gimmick for $852.
That was enough to make me a lifetime winner for years, as I never played with more than a $200 bankroll.
Just when I was about even, I hit a jackpot on Tabasco. That put me up for another two or three years. Eventually, gravity caught up to me. It just took longer then normal.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
gamerfreak
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December 8th, 2016 at 4:26:36 PM permalink
I have 2 years records, I'm up approx $90 last year and about $120 this year. I'm also up about $75 this year on ante-only 3 card poker. So lifetime and hundreds may be a little exaggerated.

I'm down approx $100 on craps and $90 on Pai Gow Poker this past year. Haven't kept good records of VP but I never do well.

I would say I play an average 5 hours slots total each month. A little less than that on the tables. I don't really mix it up, pretty much all $0.01 mega themed machines and 3CP.

I didn't mean to insinuate I was getting rich off this, I'm not a big time player at all. Also no big jackpots that skew these averages. The most I've won is $300 on gremlins. I just think that I've been really lucky, especially when you add the comps.

I also think part of doing alright on bad games has been self control and money management. I know these don't change the house edge, but I usually have a pretty tight bankroll which avoids me losing my shirt in any one session, and I almost always walk away when if I'm up $50-$60, which pretty much guartees a few winning sessions. I've been lucky in that I've had more good sessions than bad sessions. It's luck and only luck, I'll probably lose the farm next year.
vegas
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December 8th, 2016 at 7:52:13 PM permalink
I won on slots.....once. Hey you bet small and have fun. More power to you!
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
djatc
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December 8th, 2016 at 9:43:45 PM permalink
I am up lifetime on slots. AMA
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
monet0412
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December 8th, 2016 at 9:46:55 PM permalink
I'm way up on reels... Love that damn game and the casinos love to roll out the limo when you play em 😄
AxelWolf
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December 9th, 2016 at 3:06:20 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I have 2 years records, I'm up approx $90 last year and about $120 this year. I'm also up about $75 this year on ante-only 3 card poker. So lifetime and hundreds may be a little exaggerated.

I'm down approx $100 on craps and $90 on Pai Gow Poker this past year. Haven't kept good records of VP but I never do well.

I would say I play an average 5 hours slots total each month. A little less than that on the tables. I don't really mix it up, pretty much all $0.01 mega themed machines and 3CP.

I didn't mean to insinuate I was getting rich off this, I'm not a big time player at all. Also no big jackpots that skew these averages. The most I've won is $300 on gremlins. I just think that I've been really lucky, especially when you add the comps.

I also think part of doing alright on bad games has been self control and money management. I know these don't change the house edge, but I usually have a pretty tight bankroll which avoids me losing my shirt in any one session, and I almost always walk away when if I'm up $50-$60, which pretty much guartees a few winning sessions. I've been lucky in that I've had more good sessions than bad sessions. It's luck and only luck, I'll probably lose the farm next year.

What's your average bet and speed when you play?

$300 as your biggest hit suggests you are playing 1 coin/penny per line. If you are playing "mega themed slot machines" that's usually 50 lines.
I'm assuming when you play you watch the reels spin out and dick around a little. You probably average 10 spins a minute.
After 120 hours of play at -14%, you say you are beating slots without any abnormal hits(Actually $300 as your biggest hit seems low) after 72k spins.

you should be down about 5k.

If after 72k spins someone was running 14% worst than they should be on a slot machine they should call gaming because that would suggest it was gaffed.

Did Alan Mendelson put you up to this?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gamerfreak
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December 9th, 2016 at 7:17:56 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What's your average bet and speed when you play?

$300 as your biggest hit suggests you are playing 1 coin/penny per line. If you are playing "mega themed slot machines" that's usually 50 lines.
I'm assuming when you play you watch the reels spin out and dick around a little. You probably average 10 spins a minute.
After 120 hours of play at -14%, you say you are beating slots without any abnormal hits(Actually $300 as your biggest hit seems low) after 72k spins.

you should be down about 5k.

If after 72k spins someone was running 14% worst than they should be on a slot machine they should call gaming because that would suggest it was gaffed.

Did Alan Mendelson put you up to this?


Right I get the math doesn't work out. But I think if you made a plot of slot gamblers similar to me there would be outliers in either direction, one of them being me.

I do think my behaviors contribute though. Like you said I play slowly and usually the minimum amount per spin. And I think that very few people walk when they are only up a few dollars, I have no problem doing that.

Luck exists in the form of variance and I've just been really lucky when it comes to slots and less lucky at games like craps and pai gow that are theoretically better games. But that's the thing about outliers, they don't represent the likely theoretical outcome.
AxelWolf
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December 9th, 2016 at 9:37:27 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Right I get the math doesn't work out. But I think if you made a plot of slot gamblers similar to me there would be outliers in either direction, one of them being me.

I do think my behaviors contribute though. Like you said I play slowly and usually the minimum amount per spin. And I think that very few people walk when they are only up a few dollars, I have no problem doing that.

Luck exists in the form of variance and I've just been really lucky when it comes to slots and less lucky at games like craps and pai gow that are theoretically better games. But that's the thing about outliers, they don't represent the likely theoretical outcome.

Walking away ahead or not with multiple sessions over 72k spins is meaningless.

I think I read something somewhere that gaming control requires a 100k spin test to be within 1%.(needs to be fact checked)

You have 72k spins and you are off by 13% to 15%.

I'm sure someone like ME could reasonably estimate just how staggering your results are.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
BTLWI
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December 10th, 2016 at 12:32:11 AM permalink
Are you including free play and points put back in?
gamerfreak
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December 10th, 2016 at 1:00:44 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Walking away ahead or not with multiple sessions over 72k spins is meaningless.

I think I read something somewhere that gaming control requires a 100k spin test to be within 1%.(needs to be fact checked)

You have 72k spins and you are off by 13% to 15%.

I'm sure someone like ME could reasonably estimate just how staggering your results are.


There's a couple things throwing this off.

I'm at far less than 72k spins. Partially because that estimate is for 120 hours of play per year (5 hours a month is 60/year).

The other part is that I'm thinking about it, and I believe I average way less than 10 spins a minute over a 5 hour session. I take my time and take breaks to look at my phone and whatnot, I am with my girlfriend and we are drinking, I skip around and play a lot of different machines, and the themed slots I like have a ton of feature modes that suck up some time. I also put in some 3CP play most sessions.

Overall after 2 years I would say, based on my points balance, I'm at $20k-$30k coin in, which is way less than 72k spins.

My records are also off in that the dollar amounts split between 3CP and slots is an estimate. I only count the money in my wallet before/after a trip and record the delta. I definitely put in more hours of slot play, but it's possible the 3CP contributed to more winning or break even sessions than slots.
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Dec 10, 2016
Nathan
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December 16th, 2016 at 8:51:08 PM permalink
Congratulations on knowing to stop when you are a few bucks up and not being one of those foolish people who say,"I am up ONLY $20. I want to be $200 up!" And keep playing not only the extra $20, but virtually all of the bankroll and then kick themselves for not leaving with the extra $20 in the first place.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
gamerfreak
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January 1st, 2017 at 7:24:54 AM permalink
I got about 3 solid hours of game of thrones in this weekend, and came out about $80 ahead.

Lost my shirt on craps.

I need to stop playing these low HE games.
ProfessorSlot
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January 5th, 2017 at 6:02:41 AM permalink
I think your a gambler that love to play slot machines. They are not a bad game to bet on a casino and I find it much easier to play compare to other casino games. You can earn even more by just playing slots but if you can also try casino have table games to play on.
gamerfreak
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April 1st, 2017 at 3:04:04 AM permalink
I'm continuing to kill it on game of thrones. I was able to take my first trip to AC this year, and I got a solid 4 hours of GoT slots in at $0.50/spin. I ended approx +$200 for that game. No large wins either, largest overall win was $42 from the feature.

For whatever it's worth, I triggered the wheel feature 7 times, and got the John Snow Wall 6/7 times.

Other games that were good to me were Big Bang Theory and The New Willy Wonka. Games that took me down a bit were Walking Dead, and Sphinx 3D.

3CP was decent, at $10 ante/play only I came out +$30 for about 3 hours of play. For whatever reason, the 3CP at Bally's Wild West was a $10 minimum, where it is usually $5 (along with every other game there).

I was trying to play craps all night but there was absolutly no space at any table besides the $25 minimums. Literally the same people at every table over my 8 hour session, no one freakin moved.

I was watching the table and some guy dropped a chip, so I let him know and he started talking to me and saying certain bets he was placing were for me. He Kept rubbing my belly for good luck. It was a little weird.

So before the next come out roll I asked if I could squeeze in (it was a little tight but there was enough space) and him and another player absolutely flipped their lid. They weren't shooting or anything so I'm not sure what bad JuJu I was bringing by asking if there was some space. Superstitious Craps players are the worst.
SiegfriedRoy
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April 18th, 2017 at 10:21:05 AM permalink
Is there a way to find the odds on all the probabilities on all the wheel combinations? Is there a chart somewhere you can find probability of hitting the progressive on a given slot, or the bonus, etc. etc.?
sabre
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April 18th, 2017 at 11:20:41 AM permalink
Yes, it's called a PAR sheet. Good luck finding one if you aren't in the industry.
DiscreteMaths2
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April 18th, 2017 at 11:24:18 AM permalink
Quote: SiegfriedRoy

Is there a way to find the odds on all the probabilities on all the wheel combinations? Is there a chart somewhere you can find probability of hitting the progressive on a given slot, or the bonus, etc. etc.?



There is a couple people have done just for example purposes to explain how slots work but for the most part no. People who chase progressives probably have some decent estimates in their personal records but they certainly aren't going to share. There are also PAR sheets (relevant design docs for the slots) but those are private as well although they get leaked occasionally.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
SiegfriedRoy
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April 18th, 2017 at 4:38:09 PM permalink
Quote: DiscreteMaths2

There is a couple people have done just for example purposes to explain how slots work but for the most part no. People who chase progressives probably have some decent estimates in their personal records but they certainly aren't going to share. There are also PAR sheets (relevant design docs for the slots) but those are private as well although they get leaked occasionally.



Thanks for the heads up. I figured it was closely guarded.
rsactuary
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April 18th, 2017 at 4:44:54 PM permalink
Quote: SiegfriedRoy

Thanks for the heads up. I figured it was closely guarded.



If you want to try and figure it out, the Wiz has some posts on www.wizardofodds.com where he attempts to figure it out without par sheets.

Deconstructing Megabucks is one, there are other digital reel and mechanical reel examples.
gamerfreak
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March 12th, 2018 at 7:38:40 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What's your average bet and speed when you play?

$300 as your biggest hit suggests you are playing 1 coin/penny per line. If you are playing "mega themed slot machines" that's usually 50 lines.
I'm assuming when you play you watch the reels spin out and dick around a little. You probably average 10 spins a minute.
After 120 hours of play at -14%, you say you are beating slots without any abnormal hits(Actually $300 as your biggest hit seems low) after 72k spins.

you should be down about 5k.

If after 72k spins someone was running 14% worst than they should be on a slot machine they should call gaming because that would suggest it was gaffed.

Did Alan Mendelson put you up to this?


Here is my 2017 Win/Loss from CET for the small amount of slot play I put in last year. I’d need to check my notes but this is for about $15k coin in, most of which was on Game of Thrones. My biggest single hit was only in the $300 range.



That’s about +$2k from Theo by my calculation.

If anyone would like me to rub their screen while they play, I’m more than willing.
rxwine
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March 12th, 2018 at 9:03:48 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

H
If anyone would like me to rub their screen while they play, I’m more than willing.



Some people rub, some knock. Then there's the ones the bang the machine so hard if you're sitting on opposite side the whole damn bank shakes.

Rubbers, knockers, and bangers.

sounds dirty.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
klimate10
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March 12th, 2018 at 9:05:30 PM permalink
Yea my ex girlfriend was a successful slot and roulette player. Ahead lifetime.

She bet $1 straight up on an e-roulette game and won $35. Then she put $5 in a slot machine and won a bonus round for $8.

She then declared gambling to be totally dumb and never gambled again.

That’s about the only way to be ahead lifetime on slots.
bobbartop
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March 12th, 2018 at 9:17:09 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Some people rub, some knock. Then there's the ones the bang the machine so hard if you're sitting on opposite side the whole damn bank shakes.

Rubbers, knockers, and bangers.

sounds dirty.



I know a couple who rub the screen with a $20 bill. I've also sat next to a lady who handled what I thought were Rosary Beads while she played slots.

Or explain to me the people who pull their players card out because they're not winning. Not to be confused with people who just never use the card to start with. What a bunch of morons. Work all week, blow your brains out at the slots every other week, and never use the card. On a crowded night at my local casino I can see whole rows of people with NO card in their machine, despite the fact that the casino can be quite generous.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
RS
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March 12th, 2018 at 11:48:36 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

If anyone would like me to rub their screen while they play, I’m more than willing.


That’s what you young whippersnappers are calling it now a days?
onenickelmiracle
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March 13th, 2018 at 2:11:41 AM permalink
Lock it link, major $5385. That's high enough to try. What do I know.
I am a robot.
onenickelmiracle
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March 13th, 2018 at 2:40:31 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Lock it link, major $5385. That's high enough to try. What do I know.

uncle
I am a robot.
gamerfreak
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March 13th, 2018 at 12:30:05 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Quote: gamerfreak

If anyone would like me to rub their screen while they play, I’m more than willing.


That’s what you young whippersnappers are calling it now a days?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gj3AgSZEXMo
beachbumbabs
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March 14th, 2018 at 8:46:03 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Lock it link, major $5385. That's high enough to try. What do I know.



What DO you know? I found a Lock-It Link on Sunday that the 4 progressive jackpots were $13,546, $882, $64, and $13. Max bet 500, multi-denom. Those were the .01 amounts.

Worst-performing machine I have played in years. Lost $700, coin-in was just less than 1k. Time ran out so I had to quit when they closed the casino. Never hit a bonus. Got 1 3-center reel symbols (door knockers?), selected the bats over 6 free spins. Think it was called Bats, Cats, and Hats. That did ok, won $135, but otherwise a completely dead game.

I thought the numbers looked +ev, but I'm terrible at calculating that. You're saying 5k+ is good on these? Never played one before.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Romes
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March 14th, 2018 at 8:54:25 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

...I thought the numbers looked +ev, but I'm terrible at calculating that. You're saying 5k+ is good on these? Never played one before.

Never seen a lock it link progressive... the jackpots are "usually" around:

Grand: $14k
Major: $1.2k
Minor: $50
Miny: $10

Not sure I worded them all correctly, and the bottom 2 change with your denomination... also these are what I'd consider an "average" for the ones I've seen. I'd play a lock it link that had a major at ~$5400...
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Mission146
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March 14th, 2018 at 9:21:46 AM permalink
Quote: Romes


Not sure I worded them all correctly, and the bottom 2 change with your denomination... also these are what I'd consider an "average" for the ones I've seen. I'd play a lock it link that had a major at ~$5400...



I don't think I would without specific probability information. It's possible that those machines, "Shouldn't normally get that high," but still have not run enough, "Cycles," without hitting to be good. There are any number of second-level jackpots that could look like they are through the roof and basically mean nothing.

I'm not saying it's good, I'm not saying it's bad, I'm saying I don't know. $5,400 at base $1,200 is certainly not enough information for me personally to make an assumption, though.

Besides, even if it is good, can probably get the same $$$ EV in less expected time on multiple much lower plays with far less risk.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Romes
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Mission146
March 14th, 2018 at 11:20:57 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I don't think I would without specific probability information. It's possible that those machines, "Shouldn't normally get that high," but still have not run enough, "Cycles," without hitting to be good. There are any number of second-level jackpots that could look like they are through the roof and basically mean nothing.

I'm not saying it's good, I'm not saying it's bad, I'm saying I don't know. $5,400 at base $1,200 is certainly not enough information for me personally to make an assumption, though.

Besides, even if it is good, can probably get the same $$$ EV in less expected time on multiple much lower plays with far less risk.

I guess what I intentionally meant to leave vague is: You're right, if all the information you had was $5400 at a $1200 base, that's not enough... That being said, I'd play a lock it link with a $5400 major (prefer it to be a bit higher though).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
onenickelmiracle
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March 15th, 2018 at 1:08:41 PM permalink
As of this morning the major was $6400. I agree it is not certain, but I tried it. Agreed not a good use of money, other machines would be best played when available. The other progressives BBB mentioned, I'm not aware of.

Meadows casino if anyone is interested.
I am a robot.
lotteryguy
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March 16th, 2018 at 12:52:34 AM permalink
Are you sure for this one , I have bad experience with it
onenickelmiracle
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May 16th, 2018 at 5:35:36 PM permalink
I've seen majors this high plenty of places, they're a dime a dozen.
I am a robot.
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