Progressive jackpots
1. Is the progressive determined at the beginning of the cycle and is paid when the progressive gets to that number or is decided on each individual spin if the random number generator hits the say 1/100000 odd selection?
2. If it is per spin based, does betting 2x increase odds each spin then by 2x?
3. Also then as it increases to say $1,900, are the odds increased so machine pays more likely after it has played so long and obviously made a lot of money by then?
Thanks
Quote: Jp
3. Also then as it increases to say $1,900, are the odds increased so machine pays more likely after it has played so long and obviously made a lot of money by then?
Get this "payout cycle" nonsense out of your head. Slot machines do NOT collect some money and then decide to pay out some ... slot machines work on Random Number Generators. Random.
Before a payout: random. After a payout: Random.
Facing North: Random Facing South: Random.
The amount of a bonus can vary if its a progressive, but the payout is always random.
If the bonus was paid out last year, it may hit again today. If the bonus was paid out yesterday, it may hit again today. Get it. RANDOM.
Quote: FleaStiffGet this "payout cycle" nonsense out of your head. Slot machines do NOT collect some money and then decide to pay out some ... slot machines work on Random Number Generators. Random.
Before a payout: random. After a payout: Random.
Facing North: Random Facing South: Random.
The amount of a bonus can vary if its a progressive, but the payout is always random.
If the bonus was paid out last year, it may hit again today. If the bonus was paid out yesterday, it may hit again today. Get it. RANDOM.
Whoa pardner! Slot machines have set holds, these hold percentages can be changed at any time and by definition, that eliminates the word "random" from the discussion.
Quote: JpThat's what I thought. But my friend says he thinks its predetermined after each progressive reset. So it is predetermined at cycle beginning or determined during the cycle itself on an each spin basis?
Sounds like you are confusing a regular progressive jackpot with a mystery progressive jackpot.
I believe the mystery jackpots are predetermined at reset. Not so with regular progressive jackpots like Outback Jack.
In Nevada by law they can not be changed at anytime, that's BS.Quote: tournamentkingWhoa pardner! Slot machines have set holds, these hold percentages can be changed at any time and by definition, that eliminates the word "random" from the discussion.
Quote: AxelWolfIn Nevada by law they can not be changed at anytime, that's BS.
Sure they can axel. There's a regulation procedure that has to be followed, that's all. Maybe "at anytime" was too loose a term.
First of all that's only A recent thing in few casinos here in Vegas, like the cosmopolitan that have that capability. It cant happen while you are playing the machine must be vacant for a period of time. This dose not really affect AP VP players because the % of the machine is determend by the payable and your strategy so anytime you look at the machine you can fig out the % by looking assuming you have this knowledge, most VP AP do.Quote: tournamentkingSure they can axel. There's a regulation procedure that has to be followed, that's all. Maybe "at anytime" was too loose a term.
Most machines in Vegas they must go into the machine in order to change the %. Some machines they have to Change the chip and submit paperwork.
Since your only a slot player this should concern you. Because if you Did your little slot machine note taking on a Thursday, then came back in 30 min they could have changed the % and you would never have a clue. All the more reason why VP Play is a better choice when it comes to AP.
Once again I do believe one can get an advantage on some slots. I Just don't think you're the ONE.
I heard the 4 min rule, but I didn't want to repeat it because I didn't look it up for myself. I covered the other stuff, you just said it better.Quote: tringlomaneTo be more specific, any "server-based" "electronic gaming machine" payback can be changed if the machine is idle for longer than 4 minutes in Nevada. The same law exists in my home state of Missouri since they like to copy Nevada...lol Older slots/video poker machines are NOT server based though. And for video poker, changes are immediately evident, for slots, it's a guessing game.
Now that would be an interesting question, can a casino legally change a machine percentage lower on a progressive once it gets real high? This should be big NO NO. I know casinos have done this in the past on VP machines, a few times, gaming control was called out. It was a mix different decisions made by gaming control.Quote: tournamentkingAnd that's what I meant by using the term loosely. "Anytime" being changing the slot machine only within the proper regulatory parameters. I agree on the vp machines, but if and when a slot machine payback is changed actually would affect my approach. Not by much, but it could throw off my play cycle without me knowing it. Not likely on running progressives though.
If a casino changes a slot on you by 5% Your going to tell me you would still have an advantage? Highly doubtful. Lets assume you find a slot machine that's at 10k. You think the cost is somewhere around 8k to hit. You now have a 2K profit over the cycle. If they change the pay back by 5% the machine could now easily cost you 20k to hit, now you would lose thousands of dollars per cycle instead of having a profit.
Quote: AxelWolfNow that would be an interesting question, can a casino legally change a machine percentage lower on a progressive once it gets real high? This should be big NO NO. I know casinos have done this in the past on VP machines, a few times, gaming control was called out. It was a mix different decisions made by gaming control.
If a casino changes a slot on you by 5% Your going to tell me you would still have an advantage? Highly doubtful. Lets assume you find a slot machine that's at 10k. You think the cost is somewhere around 8k to hit. You now have a 2K profit over the cycle. If they change the pay back by 5% the machine could now easily cost you 20k to hit, now you would lose thousands of dollars per cycle instead of having a profit.
I believe the rule on progressive slots is the same as with vp progressives: you can't mess with them while they're progressing. Have casinos done it? Not likely, because the reason wouldn't be as compelling as it would be for the vp progressives. In vp, there's little control over how often and how high the jackpots hit, and if it looks like it might turn into a loser for the casino then the mgr. might be forced into doing something he shouldn't. Just my opinion though.
Casinos have done this in the past as I have already explained. Some have gotten away with it, some have not. A downtown casino pulls stunts like this however its not as blatant. Prior to a promotion they will take VP progressive money and put the money on a hard to hit slot, keno progressive or something. They then take the VP off the floor and store it. After the promotions over they put the VP back.Quote: tournamentkingI believe the rule on progressive slots is the same as with vp progressives: you can't mess with them while they're progressing. Have casinos done it? Not likely, because the reason wouldn't be as compelling as it would be for the vp progressives. In vp, there's little control over how often and how high the jackpots hit, and if it looks like it might turn into a loser for the casino then the mgr. might be forced into doing something he shouldn't. Just my opinion though.
Quote: tournamentking
In vp, there's little control over how often and how high the jackpots hit
This leads me to believe, you believe they are able to control when slots hit. Unless it is a Must hit by or mystery slot, this should not be the case. It works no different then a VP machine each time you spin you have the same exact chance to hit the top Jackpot as the last time. If it's cycle is 1 in 20,000 it will always be 1 in 20,000. If it was any different, AP's would just camp out and count other peoples spins all day. Once the machine got in 19k spins they would sit and play it.♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Casinos have done this in the past as I have already explained. Some have gotten away with it, some have not. A downtown casino pulls stunts like this however its not as blatant. Prior to a promotion they will take VP progressive money and put the money on a hard to hit slot, keno progressive or something. They then take the VP off the floor and store it. After the promotions over they put the VP back.Quote: tournamentkingI believe the rule on progressive slots is the same as with vp progressives: you can't mess with them while they're progressing. Have casinos done it? Not likely, because the reason wouldn't be as compelling as it would be for the vp progressives. In vp, there's little control over how often and how high the jackpots hit, and if it looks like it might turn into a loser for the casino then the mgr. might be forced into doing something he shouldn't. Just my opinion though.
tournamentking
In vp, there's little control over how often and how high the jackpots hit
Axel
This leads me to believe, you believe they are able to control when slots hit. Unless it is a Must hit by or mystery slot, this should not be the case. It works no different then a VP machine each time you spin you have the same exact chance to hit the top Jackpot as the last time. If it's cycle is 1 in 20,000 it will always be 1 in 20,000. If it was any different, AP's would just camp out and count other peoples spins all day. Once the machine got in 19k spins they would sit and play it.
On the dollar denom the progressive started at $1000. Multiply the cycle by three coins and the total wager would be $12,288 per cycle.
1000/12288 = 8.14%. So the reset amount in the progressive represented a big chunk of payback.
Meter movements on these machines varied from .5% to 1% to 1.5% to 2%. I seen pros playing some amazingly low numbers. Some would even play them as low as $1200. But this was in the days when a lot of casinos had same day major cashback with multi-point days.
Most players didn't like anything under $1500. So I had to figure that the cost to hit the progressive was at or below $1500. If the cost is $1500--1500/12288 = a 12.2% drop between top line hits. The "cost" is the average amount of money you get dropped for between top line hits.
This is where meter speed comes in.
With a .5% meter the top line hit would have to miss about 8 cycles, 33333 spins to put the meter on $1500.
With a 1% meter the top line hit would have to miss about 4 cycles, 16384 spins to put the meter on $1500
With a 2% meter the top line hit would have to miss about 2 cycles, 8192 games to put the meter on $1500.
The bulk of ones plays will come off the machines with 2% meters. This is what the meter speed is worth @ 900 spins per hour:
.5% meter = $13.50
1% meter = $27.00
2% meter = $54.00
The three key pieces of evidence one is looking for on slot progressives are:
1. The frequency of the top line hit
2. The drop between top line hits
3. The meter speed.
Exactly my concerns regarding progressives and SBG. Especially since often it seems almost every slot in casino is some kind of progressive and more and more I am beginning to be confident the odds of winning progressives is directly tied to the set payback.Quote: AxelWolfNow that would be an interesting question, can a casino legally change a machine percentage lower on a progressive once it gets real high? This should be big NO NO. I know casinos have done this in the past on VP machines, a few times, gaming control was called out. It was a mix different decisions made by gaming control.
If a casino changes a slot on you by 5% Your going to tell me you would still have an advantage? Highly doubtful. Lets assume you find a slot machine that's at 10k. You think the cost is somewhere around 8k to hit. You now have a 2K profit over the cycle. If they change the pay back by 5% the machine could now easily cost you 20k to hit, now you would lose thousands of dollars per cycle instead of having a profit.
Edit: Just wanted to add, just because a machine must be idle, this doesn't stop the casino from making it idle and kicking the player out spitting out their money.
Quote: DRichI am not aware of a regulation in Nevada that prevents a casino from changing the hold percentage on a progressive machine as long as you don't take away any of the player contribution to the progressive. If there is a reg I am not familiar with, I may have to self report myself. Last month I changed some percentages on some progressives.
Knowing that this can legally be done would stop me from playing most or maybe all slot progressives. I could never count on my analysis being accurate.
Quote: DRichI am not aware of a regulation in Nevada that prevents a casino from changing the hold percentage on a progressive machine as long as you don't take away any of the player contribution to the progressive. If there is a reg I am not familiar with, I may have to self report myself. Last month I changed some percentages on some progressives.
I think the question here is "How is the payback being changed?"
DRich, I take it you are in the casino business. When you change the payback percentage of a slot progressive, are you changing the payscale? Or are you changing the frequencies on jackpots? For instance, take a slot progressive that has triple bars on it. And let's say the frequency for triple bars is 200. And let's say the triple bars pay 20 for 1. This would mean triple bars represents 10% of the payback.
Now let's say this is a 92% overall payback progressive. But you want to slice the payback to 88%. Are you cutting the payback listed on the machine, 20 for 1, to 16 for 1? Or is the frequency for the triple bars hit being inflated from 200 to 330.
What I'm getting at is....when you slice the payback on a slot progressive do you also have to change the payscale on the machine? If this is the case then slot progressive pros could protect themselves by recording the payscales on the machines.
Quote: mickeycrimmI think the question here is "How is the payback being changed?"
DRich, I take it you are in the casino business. When you change the payback percentage of a slot progressive, are you changing the payscale? Or are you changing the frequencies on jackpots? For instance, take a slot progressive that has triple bars on it. And let's say the frequency for triple bars is 200. And let's say the triple bars pay 20 for 1. This would mean triple bars represents 10% of the payback.
Now let's say this is a 92% overall payback progressive. But you want to slice the payback to 88%. Are you cutting the payback listed on the machine, 20 for 1, to 16 for 1? Or is the frequency for the triple bars hit being inflated from 200 to 330.
What I'm getting at is....when you slice the payback on a slot progressive do you also have to change the payscale on the machine? If this is the case then slot progressive pros could protect themselves by recording the payscales on the machines.
From the casinos perspective, each slot machine has a set of pre-approved percentages that gaming has verified on that program version. The most I remember seeing was a machine with about fifty different pay percentages. On slot machines it is almost always the winning symbol hit frequencies that change based on the percentage the casino chooses. Generally the pay tables wouldn't change based on the percentage change.
Typically, machines I design and program in Nevada have about eight different percentages available per title.
Quote: DRichFrom the casinos perspective, each slot machine has a set of pre-approved percentages that gaming has verified on that program version. The most I remember seeing was a machine with about fifty different pay percentages. On slot machines it is almost always the winning symbol hit frequencies that change based on the percentage the casino chooses. Generally the pay tables wouldn't change based on the percentage change.
Typically, machines I design and program in Nevada have about eight different percentages available per title.
Thanks, DRich, for the answer. Recording the pay tables for future reference would not do any good.
Quote: mickeycrimmThanks, DRich, for the answer. Recording the pay tables for future reference would not do any good.
I think it is still valuable info.
Also, there is no such thing as server based gaming in MT, and paytables are almost never changed, unless there was a problem discovered.
When I worked at GLI, I saw machines come in for analysis from the field, and they were often set with a paytable and unchanged for many years.
Quote: CrystalMathI think it is still valuable info. Also, there is no such thing as server based gaming in MT, and paytables are almost never changed, unless there was a problem discovered.When I worked at GLI, I saw machines come in for analysis from the field, and they were often set with a paytable and unchanged for many years.
Thanks for the tips, Crystal.
Quote: JpThis question is concerning the $900 starting progressive jackpot on Outback Jack 2003-2006 version by aristocrat.
1. Is the progressive determined at the beginning of the cycle and is paid when the progressive gets to that number or is decided on each individual spin if the random number generator hits the say 1/100000 odd selection?
2. If it is per spin based, does betting 2x increase odds each spin then by 2x?
3. Also then as it increases to say $1,900, are the odds increased so machine pays more likely after it has played so long and obviously made a lot of money by then?
Thanks
These particular machines are in fact random to trigger the card feature. The card feature is bet proportional as all slot machines must. Basically ten $.30 bets would have an equal chance of triggering the cards as one $3 bet.
Once you have the cards, the only thing you, know per the rules, is there is a maximum number of kangaroos set to two, but there are not guaranteed two. Nothing is guaranteed as well but the $5 for 3 crocs. I can say this for a fact because I have personally seen all the cards picked and the minor or major wasn't won, multiple times.
In fact, cards are not equal once won. Usually bigger bets will have more jackpot OBJs as witnessed. Usually you can bank on knowing you are out of contention once a converter is picked immediately, on small bets, without first picking crocs. I have seen people win the majors on max bets with the same circumstance thanks to additional OBJs.
The most important thing to know about these machines, and most progressives, is higher jackpots are a strong, strong correlation going along with tighter payback settings. Machines set with looser paybacks will not get as high and will usually hit a lot closer to the reset amounts. I know this by experience, but the most useful experience was playing and observing these machines where they were guaranteed to be the loosest settings. It was much rarer there to even see the cards, but people won.
Knowing looser settings means lower average jackpots and the inverse, is just a rule of thumb and obviously there can be exceptions. Today almost anything can be done at will from changing metering to changing paybacks. One machine I believe defies my rule is Blazing Sevens, but I don't know if the program is connected historically with the meter. The whole problem is anything you think you know can change without you knowing it. They can make a lot of money taking assumptions and taking advantage of them.
At my local Indian casino there are about 20 Outback Jack machines. The meter rise on major and minor jackpots is 1% each. From my observation, the major jackpots are typically hit under $1100. Sure, once in awhile they go much higher, but my point is that these machines are probably set at a "loose" setting, as discussed in the post I am replying to, because they hit rather frequently. And the bank is played a lot, it's a popular game, and on weekends the place is packed.
Anyway, let me throw a question out. Assume that these are set "loose", does anyone have an opinion on when they might be positive EV? Once every few weeks I might see one at $1500. Twice I've seem them at $2100, but that was very rare.
The game is fun, if you can call playing something negative EV fun. It would be great if I really knew what made these tick, and at what level they were surely positive EV.
PS: For any Outback Jack junkies, I just want to say that I actually hit $500 on BIG ROCK, at a $1.50. lol So it can be done. I usually hate BIG ROCK, but that one I liked.
Mission- I think that should clarify what he is asking for you
Quote: WizardofnothingYou friend is talking about must hit jackpot which reset on the first spin after the jackpot is awarded and are a predetermined amount once the previous one is hit/ I haven't seen that exact year version of outback jack but to the best of my recollection it is not a must hit so your friends theory would not be valid -
Mission- I think that should clarify what he is asking for you
Perhaps I should have started a new thread on Outback Jack, or been more clear in what I am asking.
Is the game beatable by playing it at a certain level of progressive jackpot (major)? What would anyone guess would be a sufficient jackpot to have positive EV on a "loose" setting? Is anyone beating the game regularly? Thanks.
You might be barking up the wrong tree going after that machine
Quote: WizardofnothingIf anyone is beating it they most likely won't say. ....... I have however seen the major quite high 2800-3500
You might be barking up the wrong tree going after that machine
Ok. Thanks for your opinion. You may be right. But I figure ANYTHING with a progressive has to be positive at SOME point.
One more question, maybe someone has an opinion on this. There's really not much in the way of strategy, except I wonder if anyone has a strong opinion on how to play the "Gold Mine" bonus. There is strategic option involved in that.
Thanks,
-BB
You are talking about the bonus where you select on the top screen and it goes right left or straight and selects extra spins or a multiplier ?
Maybe I'm just not following
On the other not- sure almost any progressive goes positive at some point just like lions share at mgm- it depends on what the cycle is though whether it's worth it
I know a casino right now where a dealt Royal has a 140k over lay - cycle is 600k plus hands so 600 hours plus cycle - run two cycles behind and you are at 1800 hours- Game get Zero ap play
Quote: WizardofnothingWhat makes you think there is a strategic option-
You are talking about the bonus where you select on the top screen and it goes right left or straight and selects extra spins or a multiplier ?
Maybe I'm just not following
No, I mean the Gold Mine bonus. Jack walks through with his pick, chips away at rock and uncovers a gem, twice, and then you have an option of leaving and not risking a cave-in, or looking for another gem but risking a cave-in, in which your booty would be cut in half.
We seem to be having a small disconnect,. But thanks anyway.
Quote: WizardofnothingOk, what info are you looking for ?
No big deal. Just wondering if anyone had their own thoughts on the Gold Mine bonus. Obviously if he picks two rusty bottle caps then you choose "dig". But what if it's a little more complicated? Just looking for other peoples' thoughts on the game, that's all. Any thoughts.
And my gut still tells me it's a beatable game. Maybe it's just gas.
$3500? I haven't ever seen on that high.Quote: WizardofnothingIf anyone is beating it they most likely won't say. ....... I have however seen the major quite high 2800-3500
You might be barking up the wrong tree going after that machine
Quote: WizardofnothingBeatable in what way? Like straight up no mail? No promotions?
I thought I was pretty clear in my original post. But maybe it's my fault. Thanks for your input, I'll just move on for now and return when I have another question. I've read some pretty good stuff on this forum from some smart people, so I'll keep reading. It's a good forum, with some helpful advice. I should have joined a lot earlier.
thanks,
-BB
Quote: AxelWolf$3500? I haven't ever seen on that high.
I was particularly interested in what OneNickel had to say above, but that post is from 2013. Things he said made a lot of sense and he spoke from some experience. The casino I frequent has about 20 machines and I have been going there a few years but I have only started paying close attention to this game in the last six months or so. They seem to hit frequently enough, like I said, mostly under $1100, so going along with what OneNickel said, I assume they are on a "loose" setting. But I am just guessing, and frankly, as far as I know it could be possible that Aristocrat only makes them with one setting. It's possible.
Anyway, I thought the meters were generous, 1% on both major and minor, and I can count on one hand the times I've seen one go over $1500, and remember once one going to $2100. I wish I had some inside scoop on these and know for sure whether $1500 is positive EV. I know you can get "stuck" pretty quickly on them and would like to test them without getting my proverbial brains blown out.
-BB
Quote: GWAEI hope all is well with onenickle. Been almost a year since his last post.
Yeah, me too. Was looking at his account after he got mentioned; he last came by in October. Maybe a PM or two would reach his email, and he might stop by?
If I'm thinking about the same thing you're talking about: guy goes in cave and mines jewels or whatever. He gets a reward based on what type of jewel. You have an option to take your prize/credits or keep mining multiple times. IF you hit a whammy at some point you lose half of whatever you already received. There may be a better strategy once you get the bonus however there's no way to overcome the cost getting into the bonus rounds.Quote: bobbartopNo big deal. Just wondering if anyone had their own thoughts on the Gold Mine bonus. Obviously if he picks two rusty bottle caps then you choose "dig". But what if it's a little more complicated? Just looking for other peoples' thoughts on the game, that's all. Any thoughts.
And my gut still tells me it's a beatable game. Maybe it's just gas.
In the original post I think you were more on the right track. I'm sure there is a number on the progressives that makes this game +EV at some point.
IMO this game is a Mystery Bonus Progressive. It's no different than a must hit other than you don't know the range. I bet there's a hidden range. If there's a hidden range and that range is not high enough there's a chance this game may never turn positive(but I think that's unlikely).
You need to figure out how often on average the random bonus comes up and then how often it awards the progressives during the bonus. You also need to know the hold for each location.
Oops I was writing my previous response got distracted then fell asleep I woke up finished it and sent it before I read this.Quote: bobbartopI was particularly interested in what OneNickel had to say above, but that post is from 2013. Things he said made a lot of sense and he spoke from some experience. The casino I frequent has about 20 machines and I have been going there a few years but I have only started paying close attention to this game in the last six months or so. They seem to hit frequently enough, like I said, mostly under $1100, so going along with what OneNickel said, I assume they are on a "loose" setting. But I am just guessing, and frankly, as far as I know it could be possible that Aristocrat only makes them with one setting. It's possible.
Anyway, I thought the meters were generous, 1% on both major and minor, and I can count on one hand the times I've seen one go over $1500, and remember once one going to $2100. I wish I had some inside scoop on these and know for sure whether $1500 is positive EV. I know you can get "stuck" pretty quickly on them and would like to test them without getting my proverbial brains blown out.
-BB
I'm not sure if $1500 is a good number
I can tell you this I have seen them at $2400 however someone was playing it an when I returned it had been hit.
I have seen many various numbers over $1500. the seed them at 900 IIRC?
The question is what happens if you start $1400 if even a small percentage goes to $2500? $2400 $2300 $2200 and so on how much will you lose on the runners?
I think its worthwhile investigating. Perhaps you can go every day write down and keep track using the meter move to find out when they have hit and get an average (Unfortunately you wont know if they hit more than once before you have returned) That would take a while and wouldn't be perfect but it might help get a better Idea of the average random jackpot.
Oh sure, it will work sometimes--but lack of info is not your friend.
Quote: AxelWolf
I think its worthwhile investigating. Perhaps you can go every day write down and keep track using the meter move to find out when they have hit and get an average (Unfortunately you wont know if they hit more than once before you have returned) That would take a while and wouldn't be perfect but it might help get a better Idea of the average random jackpot.
Thanks for your response. I have tracked these machines to some degree. I don't go every day, but I will continue working on this project. Maybe I should have started a specific Outback Jack thread. But if I learn anything worthwhile, I will be happy to share it.
thanks,
-BB
If you do ever find out that it's a +EV play and a good number that its playable at I suggest you make money before disclosing the information publicly. Obviously if the number is extremely high and rare to find it probably won't make any difference. There's good reason for AP's to focus on good slot plays.Quote: bobbartopThanks for your response. I have tracked these machines to some degree. I don't go every day, but I will continue working on this project. Maybe I should have started a specific Outback Jack thread. But if I learn anything worthwhile, I will be happy to share it.
thanks,
-BB
FYI I much prefer to play +EV slots over VP.
I believe OBJ slots are all over.
