Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 8:29:55 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I was waiting on one a couple weeks ago that was at $496 and change when the lady on it hit for 104 free games! I left when I saw that.



Where was that at? Are you talking about Quick Strike or Quick Hits? Every Quick Hits machine I have ever seen has a cap of 50 total Bonus Games, and even that takes a minimum of one re-trigger with your best result of (2) 20 Free Games at 3x Pays + (1) Wild +5 Free Games.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
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December 29th, 2012 at 8:33:06 PM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
tsmith
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December 29th, 2012 at 8:33:29 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

I need to make max bet for these progressives, correct?



No, not correct. You're eligible even if you're betting 40 or 50 cents. I never play max, usually min or the next higher amount.

Everyone has their own preferred game. I happen to enjoy these and I hate video poker, and that's why casinos have both, so that you and I can both have a good time while we're there.
Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 8:40:18 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

It was a Quick Hits in Detroit. The panda game. Don't know the exact name.



Interesting. That operates, then, on a completely different premise from the Quick Hits games I am referring to. The ones that I am referring to, however, have been linked to in this site with the Progressive probabilities of 5-9 Quick Hits, if you are interested in playing those at an advantage, it is a simple formula to determine the ER.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
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December 29th, 2012 at 8:46:15 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
100xOdds
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December 29th, 2012 at 10:02:26 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

FWIW, I did some Math on these WMS machines as described on Page 5 and got 96.192%.

Spread of $250-$500 = 100% ER at $490.48 (Excluding Minor Jackpot Point)



so 490 for the $500 must win.
how about for the $50 must win? same 2%? ie: start playing at $48?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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December 29th, 2012 at 10:05:38 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I think that Quick Hits are the best, by far, as they actually have advertised their Progressive Probabilities on-line. It's just a Math problem at that point, and whatever percentage you want to assume for the Base Return. You could even assume the worst if you wanted to, and absolutely KNOW that you are playing at an advantage.

The only unfortunate thing is that you're going to need to see some Free Games, especially in longer sessions, for that Base Return to come to fruition and certainly to exceed the Base Return in that regard. Additionally, much of the advantage can often be wrapped up in the Five Quick Hits result, which really isn't all that unlikely, and then you may be spinning at a disadvantage once that hits. It's tough to leave a machine that is running well, but if you want to be pulling with +ER, sometimes you have to.



i love Quick Hits. what needs to be the jackpot amounts to start playing?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 10:06:04 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so 490 for the $500 must win.
how about for the $50 must win? same 2%? ie: start playing at $48?



It would be the same thing, 96.192% of the difference, so:

$50 - $25 * .96192 = 24.048

$24.048 + $25 = $49.048 or $49.05
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
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December 29th, 2012 at 10:12:24 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Interesting. That operates, then, on a completely different premise from the Quick Hits games I am referring to. The ones that I am referring to, however, have been linked to in this site with the Progressive probabilities of 5-9 Quick Hits, if you are interested in playing those at an advantage, it is a simple formula to determine the ER.



whats the formula? :)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 10:32:18 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

i love Quick Hits. what needs to be the jackpot amounts to start playing?



It really depends, because I tend to look at it as a culmination of all the probabilities/Progressives even though it goes down after you hit one.

Here's the probabilties thread with the link:

Tringlomane found the link, btw, I found it once and had it written down, but then couldn't find it again.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/big-wins/11728-keno-anyone/2/#post193700

The Link is in his post.

I have the Base Pays at 92.09% for the ones I mainly play based on my records, but you can go 88.05% if you want to assume the worst.

Five QuickHits: 1/230 or .00434782608

Six QuickHits: 1/1329 or .00075244544

Seven QuickHits 1/9327 or .00010721561

Eight QuickHits 1/87617 or .00001141331 (I probably should have seen two of these, lifetime, by now, but have only seen one)

Nine QuickHits 1/2073600 or .00000004822

There are two ways you can do this:

1.) You could look at the difference in ER% for each Progressive total as compared to the Base Payout, and then add those differences to the base amount.

OR

2.) You could do it for just one, since you can only hit one.

EXAMPLE:

If I have a Quick Hits machine that I like for a 92.09% Base Return, and the Five QuickHits is at $28.98 where it normally starts at $15, then:

$15 * .00434782608 = .0652173912 or 6.52173912% of the Return.

$28.98 * .00434782608 = .126 or 12.6%

The difference is 6.07826088% which I add to the Base % and get 98.16826088% ER.

HOWEVER:

You could also simply multiply the difference in pay by the liklihood and add that:

$13.98 * .00434782608 = .06078260859-------Same thing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 10:38:08 PM permalink
Where does the difference in 5 QuickHits have to be to be at 100%?

You need there to be 1 -.9209 = .0791 additional ER wrapped up in that result.

You know that there is .0652173912 wrapped up in $15.00, so:

.0791/.0652173912 = 1.2128666686 thus:

$15.00 * 1.2128666686 = x

x = $18.19

$18.19 + $15.00 = $33.19

PROOF:

$18.19 * .00434782608 = .07908695639

.9209 + .07908695639 = .99998695639---Errors due to rounding.

EDIT: Technically, it's $33.20, then, but that puts you slightly over.

$18.20 * .00434782608 = .07913043465

.07913043465 + .9209 = 1.00003043465
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AxiomOfChoice
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December 29th, 2012 at 11:00:41 PM permalink
There are a lot of different types of quick hits machines, though. 3 questions:

1. Can it be assumed that the progressives of other types of quick hits machines hit at the same frequency as the "black & white sevens" game referenced in the link to the arcade-history site?

2. For that matter, can it be assumed that these are the same from casino to casino and can't be changed, in the same way that the base payouts can be changed?

3. Also, I've never heard of this arcade-history site. Does it generally have good information? Can we trust it to be accurate?
Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 11:08:47 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

There are a lot of different types of quick hits machines, though. 3 questions:

1. Can it be assumed that the progressives of other types of quick hits machines hit at the same frequency as the "black & white sevens" game referenced in the link to the arcade-history site?



I would say, "No," but based on notes that I have taken regarding the symbol distribution of Quick Hits Symbols, per spin, on average, they keep it pretty close from machine to machine if not the same. It would take an enormous sample size for me to state they are the same.

Quote:

2. For that matter, can it be assumed that these are the same from casino to casino and can't be changed, in the same way that the base payouts can be changed?



It would seem that the website lists different base payout percentage possibilities but is very absolute with respect to the Progressive Probabilities, so I would assume that.

Quote:

3. Also, I've never heard of this arcade-history site. Does it generally have good information? Can we trust it to be accurate?



I do not know anything about this arcade-history site, however, Bally Technologies used to have this exact information on their own website and what is reflected on this website reflects the notes I took from the Bally website. I would have been able to find it from Bally Technologies again, but I believe that they took it down, but arcade-thingy must have gotten it prior to Bally removing it.

Tringlomane linked the arcade site, so perhaps he knows more about it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 11:14:30 PM permalink
You'll also see from Bally Technologies site, that the hit rate matches arcade-thingy, FWIW:

http://ballytech.com/games/class3/video-slots/quick-hit-platinum-blackwhite-sevens-1268.html

You can also log in/register if you are a casino employee to get the PAR Sheets and everything else related to the machine, so my belief is that someone had such an account with Bally Tech and just lifted the information from that, either that, or they saw it when it was up for the general public to see.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 11:23:16 PM permalink
Cool!

Finally learned how to search that Aracde site.

Black and Gold Wild Progressives:

http://www.arcade-history.com/?n=black-gold-wild-quick-hit-platinum&page=detail&id=45272

Exactly the same Progressives, slightly different base %'s.

Triple Blazing 7's Jackpot

http://www.arcade-history.com/?n=triple-blazing-7's-jackpot-quick-hit-platinum&page=detail&id=45274

Exactly the same Progressives
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tringlomane
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December 29th, 2012 at 11:23:29 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146


Tringlomane linked the arcade site, so perhaps he knows more about it.



Unfortunately I do not. I agree with your conjecture though, someone with the info copied/pasted it there. Of course they could have made it up, but why would they?? Most slot machines listed on that site do not have return data available.
Mission146
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December 29th, 2012 at 11:35:48 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Unfortunately I do not. I agree with your conjecture though, someone with the info copied/pasted it there. Of course they could have made it up, but why would they?? Most slot machines listed on that site do not have return data available.



That's absolutely right, and furthermore, you'll see that the year on these machines is 2007, and they have info for other machines from 2007, which correlates to what I said about Bally used to have it on their website. You're right, most of the machines they do not have anything for, so why pick that one?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AxiomOfChoice
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December 30th, 2012 at 12:11:22 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Cool!

Finally learned how to search that Aracde site.

Black and Gold Wild Progressives:

http://www.arcade-history.com/?n=black-gold-wild-quick-hit-platinum&page=detail&id=45272

Exactly the same Progressives, slightly different base %'s.

Triple Blazing 7's Jackpot

http://www.arcade-history.com/?n=triple-blazing-7's-jackpot-quick-hit-platinum&page=detail&id=45274

Exactly the same Progressives



Fair enough. Those are all QH Platinum. Do you think that the numbers are the same for the non-platinum QH machines?

And, what about the ones that are 4-high (ie, each reel displays 4 symbols) and the top progressive is 11+ QH?
100xOdds
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December 30th, 2012 at 4:49:35 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Where does the difference in 5 QuickHits have to be to be at 100%?

You need there to be 1 -.9209 = .0791 additional ER wrapped up in that result.

You know that there is .0652173912 wrapped up in $15.00, so:

.0791/.0652173912 = 1.2128666686 thus:

$15.00 * 1.2128666686 = x

x = $18.19

$18.19 + $15.00 = $33.19



so basically a little more than double the starting value.
unfortunately, i dont think i've ever seen the 5QH even at double the starting value
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxiomOfChoice
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December 30th, 2012 at 12:57:59 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so basically a little more than double the starting value.
unfortunately, i dont think i've ever seen the 5QH even at double the starting value



I have. I was paying attention to this when I was in Vegas over Christmas (mostly due to the recent discussion on this board). The 150 credit penny QH slots (which start with the 5QH progressive at $15) were occasionally over $30. the 6QH progressive (which, according to the site linked to, gives almost as much EV as the 5QH) was also occasionally over double the starting value. I played some of them for the hell of it, even though I wasn't sure that they were +EV, but you just get SO MANY comps from slots that I couldn't resist. I was actually up overall at slots for the trip; not sure how much of this was due to luck and how much was due to the possibility that these actually were +EV. (The stuff Mission posted suggests that I actually was +EV, although I didn't know it at the time. I suspected that it was close, and almost certainly worthwhile after comps. Plus, I pretty much never play slots, so it was fun to change it up a bit)

It is crazy that playing penny slots at $1.50 per spin gives me more comps than my $100-$500 blackjack action.
tringlomane
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December 30th, 2012 at 1:15:32 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice


It is crazy that playing penny slots at $1.50 per spin gives me more comps than my $100-$500 blackjack action.



Lots of people forget how quickly you can press that button. And I know I have seen the 5 QH near $30 at times before. If 5 QH and 6 QH are both double, then the machine is probably near 100%, maybe even >100% if it's at a generous base payout setting.
100xOdds
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December 30th, 2012 at 4:07:11 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I have. I was paying attention to this when I was in Vegas over Christmas (mostly due to the recent discussion on this board). The 150 credit penny QH slots (which start with the 5QH progressive at $15) were occasionally over $30. the 6QH progressive (which, according to the site linked to, gives almost as much EV as the 5QH) was also occasionally over double the starting value. I played some of them for the hell of it, even though I wasn't sure that they were +EV, but you just get SO MANY comps from slots that I couldn't resist. I was actually up overall at slots for the trip; not sure how much of this was due to luck and how much was due to the possibility that these actually were +EV. (The stuff Mission posted suggests that I actually was +EV, although I didn't know it at the time. I suspected that it was close, and almost certainly worthwhile after comps. Plus, I pretty much never play slots, so it was fun to change it up a bit)

It is crazy that playing penny slots at $1.50 per spin gives me more comps than my $100-$500 blackjack action.



ahh.. so look for double the default 6QH amount also. thx!
how for 7QH and above?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxiomOfChoice
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December 30th, 2012 at 5:18:25 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

ahh.. so look for double the default 6QH amount also. thx!
how for 7QH and above?



According to the link posted above, the returns quickly diminish for the higher progressives. Obviously you would love to hit one, but it's so unlikely that increasing the dollar value doesn't make as much of a difference to the EV.

The info given was:

Quote:

Any nine QH symbols pays 2,000 x total bet. Occurs every 2,073,600 games.
Any eight QH symbols pays 650 x total bet. Occurs every 87,617 games.
Any seven QH symbols pays100 x total bet. Occurs every 9,327 games.
Any six QH symbols pays 50 x total bet. Occurs every 1,329 games.
Any five QH symbols pays 10 x total bet . Occurs every 230 games.



If we assume that these numbers are correct (and I agree with the previous posters; they probably are) then we can just divide the numbers and see that the base values are worth:

5QH: 0.0434 max bets
6QH: 0.0376 max bets
7QH: 0.0107 max bets
8QH: 0.0074 max bets
9QH: 0.0010 max bets

In other words, if both the 5QH and 6QH progressives are double their base value, that adds about 8.1% to your EV over the base amount (4.34% from the 5QH and 3.76% from the 6QH). Doubling the 7QH jackpot adds only an extra 1% -- it would need to be at 5x its base before it was worth about as much as a doubled 5QH or 6QH.

So, the point is, while you want all the jackpots to be as high as possible (obviously), the small ones being higher is a lot more important than the large ones being higher.

I saw one machine where the 6QH jackpot was higher than the 7QH! 7QH was close to its base (had been hit recently) and the 6QH obviously hadn't been hit in a while since it was well over double its initial value. the 5QH was also pretty high, so I played a bit, but then I hit the 5QH and I assumed (now I know, probably correctly) that it wasn't worthwhile to play and chase the 6QH, since the inflated 5QH is more valuable (in terms of EV).

I've noticed that there are often many of these machines in a single bank, but the jackpots are not linked. Out of all the ones in a single bank, one of them will often have decent jackpots. In a large casino with many such banks, you can definitely bounce around looking for value.
Ardent1
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December 31st, 2012 at 6:27:02 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

FWIW, I did some Math on these WMS machines as described on Page 5 and got 96.192%.

Spread of $250-$500 = 100% ER at $490.48 (Excluding Minor Jackpot Point)



You are making a BIG assumption that each hit is equally likely to trigger the $500 jackpot. WMS added some optionality to it -- in some versions of these G+ games, you want to make the Max bet hoping to trigger a huge win during the bonus round, and that win will trigger the Major jackpot.
randomperson
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December 31st, 2012 at 11:59:39 AM permalink
Aren't the numbers reported on the website the machines total return, not the machines return when all the jackpots are at reset? Your numbers are way too low if that's the case. You also need to know meter rise on each meter to do the math all the way.
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 4:04:54 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Fair enough. Those are all QH Platinum. Do you think that the numbers are the same for the non-platinum QH machines?

And, what about the ones that are 4-high (ie, each reel displays 4 symbols) and the top progressive is 11+ QH?



I don't know anything about any Quick Hits Progressives with the exceptions of Quick Hits Platinum and Quick Hits Double Platinum. (As the name implies, everything is just double pays and double bets, otherwise the same.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 4:17:03 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so basically a little more than double the starting value.
unfortunately, i dont think i've ever seen the 5QH even at double the starting value



That's not the only one, there can be an advantage on any of them, I was just demonstrating the formula for an advantage based on only one.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 4:35:14 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

According to the link posted above, the returns quickly diminish for the higher progressives. Obviously you would love to hit one, but it's so unlikely that increasing the dollar value doesn't make as much of a difference to the EV.



That's very true, but I enjoy the machines, so it's either near 100% or it's not, for me. Another thing to keep in mind is that, as the higher Progressives become less likely, the probability of hitting them in x number of spins is also less likely, so even 7QH, taken alone, will put you at or near an advantage at times. I even saw one in the $600's on a base of $150, on one occasion, Five and Six Quick Hits brought it over 100%.

Quote:

I saw one machine where the 6QH jackpot was higher than the 7QH! 7QH was close to its base (had been hit recently) and the 6QH obviously hadn't been hit in a while since it was well over double its initial value. the 5QH was also pretty high, so I played a bit, but then I hit the 5QH and I assumed (now I know, probably correctly) that it wasn't worthwhile to play and chase the 6QH, since the inflated 5QH is more valuable (in terms of EV).



That's absolutely right, especially depending on exactly where the 7QH was, and if you want to go by overall ER, the eight and nine QH's do matter a little bit. It's not at all uncommon to see the Six Quick Hits be higher than the Seven, and on one occasion, in fact, both of them were above $300!

Quote:

I've noticed that there are often many of these machines in a single bank, but the jackpots are not linked. Out of all the ones in a single bank, one of them will often have decent jackpots. In a large casino with many such banks, you can definitely bounce around looking for value.



That's the way to do it, in my opinion. The Linked Progressives are a pain in the ass if there is anyone else playing because the fact that someone else is playing at the same time cuts into the ER. I've never come up with an exact formula, I suppose you would take the (Progressive Amount (for each) - Progressive Starting Amount) /2 (if you want to assume you spin at the exact same speed) and then apply for the formula for the increase as normal.

Short answer: Almost never worth it if there is someone else playing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 4:37:51 PM permalink
Quote: Ardent1

You are making a BIG assumption that each hit is equally likely to trigger the $500 jackpot. WMS added some optionality to it -- in some versions of these G+ games, you want to make the Max bet hoping to trigger a huge win during the bonus round, and that win will trigger the Major jackpot.



In my initial Math a few pages back, I stated that I was making a good many assumptions and that this was one of them. However, from an EV standpoint, if the base pays are the same and the Progressive instead is set at a certain total, then you just increase the variance by Max Betting. If you are suggesting that some machines are definitely triggered by a certain $$$ amount won, then you would definitely want to Max Bet.

Furthermore, in the Math that I did for this, I was just using what it would take to get you to $500 based on the EV of the game. The stuff I threw out there had nothing to do with if you had a hit such as x or y, all it had to do with was by what point should you be able to get the meter to $500 at a 100% ER.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 4:38:47 PM permalink
Quote: randomperson

Aren't the numbers reported on the website the machines total return, not the machines return when all the jackpots are at reset? Your numbers are way too low if that's the case. You also need to know meter rise on each meter to do the math all the way.



No, it says, "Base Pays," a Base Pay would not reflect an increase to the Progressive, or it wouldn't be a Base Pay.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mooseton
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December 31st, 2012 at 6:57:32 PM permalink
If you read Frank Kneeland's book he has the correct formula. You do need to consider meter-rise.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
tringlomane
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December 31st, 2012 at 7:11:47 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

No, it says, "Base Pays," a Base Pay would not reflect an increase to the Progressive, or it wouldn't be a Base Pay.



Yeah, I dunno if I would assume this on a PAR sheet myself. It could consider the average progressive meter for its final result. Or the PAR data is only valid for the non-progressive game since that link on Quickhits doesn't clearly state it's a progressive.
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 7:32:25 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Yeah, I dunno if I would assume this on a PAR sheet myself. It could consider the average progressive meter for its final result. Or the PAR data is only valid for the non-progressive game since that link on Quickhits doesn't clearly state it's a progressive.



Check out the picture on the site, the Progressives have moved already. Every QuickHits Platinum machine is a Progressive. I can't imagine that it would consider the average Progressive Meter for the result because you must Max Bet in order to win the Progressives, so you would need two separate lists of Base Pays with one assuming the Max Bet and one assuming any other bet. You'll also notice it doesn't specify, "With Max Bet," on the site.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Buzzard
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December 31st, 2012 at 7:48:50 PM permalink
A little info based on PAR sheets. http://www.nh.gov/gsc/calendar/documents/20091117_harrigan_dixon.pdf
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
tringlomane
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December 31st, 2012 at 9:12:16 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Every QuickHits Platinum machine is a Progressive.



Is it? I swear I have seen non-progressives before. Are those not "Platimum"?
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 9:15:42 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Is it? I swear I have seen non-progressives before. Are those not "Platimum"?



There are many QuickHits machines that are not Progressives and they are also not Platinums. They are otherwise premised on the same games.
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Ardent1
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December 31st, 2012 at 9:17:55 PM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

If you read Frank Kneeland's book he has the correct formula. You do need to consider meter-rise.



I didn't read Kneeland's book -- but this information is self-evident. Meter-rise or meter-movement only comes into the equation if you hit the damn thing.
100xOdds
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December 31st, 2012 at 9:24:53 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

There are many QuickHits machines that are not Progressives and they are also not Platinums. They are otherwise premised on the same games.



so what the difference between QH platinum and non-platinum?
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Ardent1
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December 31st, 2012 at 9:37:39 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Is it? I swear I have seen non-progressives before. Are those not "Platimum"?




tringlomane, did you heck out Bally's website (listed below) or are you being argumentative, again?

http://ballytech.com/games/class3/video-slots/quick-hit-platinum-blackwhite-sevens-black-gold-wild-starsbars-triple-blazing-7s-wild-jackpot-1270.html
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 9:39:28 PM permalink
Is this a credible source:

http://www.casinocenter.com/solving-the-jackpot-mystery/

The author of this article talks about not betting the minimum on, "Jackpot must hit by," machines if they are linked Progressives, which is irrelevant becasue we are talking about single-machine Progressives. The part that interests me, however, is the author saying that the RNG picks a total at which the Jackpot will go off.

I basically stand by my Math though on the Slots mentioned in the OP. There is only one amount at which you KNOW it will go off, and that amount is $500.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 31st, 2012 at 9:46:44 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so what the difference between QH platinum and non-platinum?



The Platinum Quick Hits are always Progressives and some of the Quick Hits games that are not Platinum are not Progressives. Basically:

Platinum: Always a Progressive

Not Platinum: May or may not be a Progressive, depends on the machine.

There are all kinds of Quick Hits Machines, Three-Reel, Five-Reel, Play Five Lines, Play One-Line, Play Twenty Lines, Play Thirty Lines, Play Nine Lines, and then you get into the premise of the base symbols and then whether or not it is a Progressive.

For example, there are $0.05/Credit 9/Lines Max Bet 5/Line for a Max of $2.25 that have Progressives, but they are not Platinum machines. I don't care for them as well because I cannot be absolutely sure if I am at an advantage, but if I'm ahead a few hundred and am playing up or down to the next nearest $50 I'll play these a little bit if the Progressive amount for 5 or 6 QuickHits is absolutely ridiculous compared to the Base amounts. These are linked Progressives at Wheeling Island, though, so that doesn't happen very often and I'll only play them if I am the only one playing, unless I notice that someone else is playing...but helping me out by betting other than Max Bet.
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tringlomane
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December 31st, 2012 at 10:07:24 PM permalink
Quote: Ardent1

tringlomane, did you heck out Bally's website (listed below) or are you being argumentative, again?

http://ballytech.com/games/class3/video-slots/quick-hit-platinum-blackwhite-sevens-black-gold-wild-starsbars-triple-blazing-7s-wild-jackpot-1270.html



You calling me argumentative? That's real funny; virtually every single post you make on this forum IS argumentative!!! I was the first one to post on this forum PAR data for these stupid progressives because I waste my time looking up gambling data instead of being productive (apparently you do too...more so than me), so excuse me for not immediately knowing that if the machine is a "Platinum" machine that it is always progressive!
AxiomOfChoice
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December 31st, 2012 at 11:15:39 PM permalink
Quote: Ardent1

I didn't read Kneeland's book -- but this information is self-evident. Meter-rise or meter-movement only comes into the equation if you hit the damn thing.



I think the question is, if you commit to sit down and play until you hit the thing, what is your EV? You need to factor meter-rise into this equation.

Note that this is perfectly reasonable to do. For a relatively rare jackpot, it might require a team. For a common one (according to the link earlier in the thread, 5QH is a 1/230 shot) it is reasonable to do alone (the probability of not hitting it within several hours is vanishingly small)
Ardent1
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January 1st, 2013 at 1:26:50 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I think the question is, if you commit to sit down and play until you hit the thing, what is your EV? You need to factor meter-rise into this equation.

Note that this is perfectly reasonable to do. For a relatively rare jackpot, it might require a team. For a common one (according to the link earlier in the thread, 5QH is a 1/230 shot) it is reasonable to do alone (the probability of not hitting it within several hours is vanishingly small)



This has been debated ad infinitum since Jazbo tried to cut the baby in half in 1998 (go to www.jazbo.com and read his piece on Progressive Meter Movement in the Video Poker section).

The jackpot goes to whoever hits it; the meter movement is a CONTINGENT award -- IMHO, it must pass Solon's test.

If you want to be anal-retentive about it, you divide your rate of play by the total rate of play (for example, HPH or HP minute) to get your Expected EV. Once you realize you didn't hit the jackpot, that Expected EV was illusionary on an a posteriori basis or 20-20 hindsight. However, on a priori basis, you should include your pro-rata chance of hitting the jackpot.

In summary, there are 2 correct answers -- either a priori or a posteriori; I'm firmly in the second camp based on Solon's test (refer to the first Chapter of "Fooled by Randomness" by N.Taleb, where he described Solon's answer to Croesus, King of Lydia).

- Cheers

P.S. As a side note, Angst hated to chase a jackpot when some other Yahoo could hit it; he preferred to be the only one who qualified for the jackpot such that the Yahoo's with their short-coin play can't hit the jackpot but only help build said jackpot. In Angst's case, he has a 100% of hitting the jackpot.
AxiomOfChoice
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January 1st, 2013 at 1:42:57 AM permalink
This is referring to cases where your probability of hitting the jackpot is 1, or close enough to 1 that treating it as being equal to 1 won't matter for the first 10 decimal places of your EV.

A progressive on a non-banked machine (ie, each machine has its own separate progressive) which has a 1/230 probability of hitting on each spin, where you can spin several hundred times an hour, certainly falls into this category, assuming that you are adequately bankrolled.
Mission146
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January 1st, 2013 at 3:42:43 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I think the question is, if you commit to sit down and play until you hit the thing, what is your EV? You need to factor meter-rise into this equation.

Note that this is perfectly reasonable to do. For a relatively rare jackpot, it might require a team. For a common one (according to the link earlier in the thread, 5QH is a 1/230 shot) it is reasonable to do alone (the probability of not hitting it within several hours is vanishingly small)



I agree with this, but I will say that I never become, "Jackpot-Committed," I tend to win in multiples of $50, or lose a pre-determined amount of either $50 or $100. Despite being +ER overall, I still tend not to chase those Jackpots too far. For example, if you get into Free Games in which you hit for Six Quickhits at 2 or 3x Pays for $150 or $225, or you hit for Seven Quickhits at 2x or 3x for $300 or $450, it doesn't make any sense to me to keep playing indefinitely to chase a 5QH Jackpot. I mainly just play that at +ER while hoping that Lady Variance is on my side to the extent that I will hit for something bigger. Of course, if I take down the 5QH Jackpot and the rest of them are such that I am at -ER, I'll definitely look around for another machine.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
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January 1st, 2013 at 4:16:47 AM permalink
Quote: Ardent1

tringlomane, did you heck out Bally's website (listed below) or are you being argumentative, again?

http://ballytech.com/games/class3/video-slots/quick-hit-platinum-blackwhite-sevens-black-gold-wild-starsbars-triple-blazing-7s-wild-jackpot-1270.html



Overall Hit Frequency:

Black & White Sevens - 50.19%
Black Gold Wild - 39.87%
Stars & Bars - 64.85%
Triple Blazing 7s Wild Jackpot - 50.19%


What the heck is this?
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Mission146
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January 1st, 2013 at 5:26:03 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Overall Hit Frequency:

Black & White Sevens - 50.19%
Black Gold Wild - 39.87%
Stars & Bars - 64.85%
Triple Blazing 7s Wild Jackpot - 50.19%


What the heck is this?



The overall hit frequency is just how many times you will have a, "Winning," spin with Max Lines Bet (which every bet is on one of these Quick Hits Platinum machines). I put Winning in quotation marks because you can have Winning spins that result in an overall loss. The Payout %'s are about the same on these machines (assuming the casino has them all set to the same general level) so the hit rates also reflect the general structure of the payouts. For example, machines with a higher hit rate are going to tend to have fewer (or worth less $$$), "Moderate," paying Lines.

I have always found Triple Blazing 7's Wild Jackpot and Black & Gold Wild to be the most forgiving, in general, but that's just me. You can be down $10-$20 on those and bounce back with a single spin even without Free Games or a QH Progressive. I hate Stars & Bars, it's hard to convince myself that I MUST play it when it is over 100% ER, hardly anything F***ing wins you money on that machine, you can win ten spins in a row and be down $13.00 the way that thing is set up! Black & White Sevens is kind of in-between, in my opinion, TB7WJ and B&GW are definitely the ones I enjoy playing.

I guess I would rather lose completely on spins with a slightly better chance to bounce back on one spin than sit there and, "Win," $0.10 or what have you all day long. Too many of those kind of, "Wins," in a row tends to piss me off.
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Ardent1
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January 1st, 2013 at 8:18:17 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I agree with this, but I will say that I never become, "Jackpot-Committed," I tend to win in multiples of $50, or lose a pre-determined amount of either $50 or $100. Despite being +ER overall, I still tend not to chase those Jackpots too far. For example, if you get into Free Games in which you hit for Six Quickhits at 2 or 3x Pays for $150 or $225, or you hit for Seven Quickhits at 2x or 3x for $300 or $450, it doesn't make any sense to me to keep playing indefinitely to chase a 5QH Jackpot. I mainly just play that at +ER while hoping that Lady Variance is on my side to the extent that I will hit for something bigger. Of course, if I take down the 5QH Jackpot and the rest of them are such that I am at -ER, I'll definitely look around for another machine.



It is my understanding that several of these machines share the same linked jackpots, meaning you really can't exlude someone else from competing for the same jackpot. For example, supposed the machines are in a bank where they are placed back to back meaning you can't discern if another AP is doing the same thing on the other aisle.

axiomofchoice wants to count the chickens before they are hatched, and that is a no-no!
100xOdds
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January 1st, 2013 at 9:08:01 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The overall hit frequency is just how many times you will have a, "Winning," spin with Max Lines Bet (which every bet is on one of these Quick Hits Platinum machines). I put Winning in quotation marks because you can have Winning spins that result in an overall loss. The Payout %'s are about the same on these machines (assuming the casino has them all set to the same general level) so the hit rates also reflect the general structure of the payouts. For example, machines with a higher hit rate are going to tend to have fewer (or worth less $$$), "Moderate," paying Lines.

I have always found Triple Blazing 7's Wild Jackpot and Black & Gold Wild to be the most forgiving, in general, but that's just me. You can be down $10-$20 on those and bounce back with a single spin even without Free Games or a QH Progressive. I hate Stars & Bars, it's hard to convince myself that I MUST play it when it is over 100% ER, hardly anything F***ing wins you money on that machine, you can win ten spins in a row and be down $13.00 the way that thing is set up! Black & White Sevens is kind of in-between, in my opinion, TB7WJ and B&GW are definitely the ones I enjoy playing.

I guess I would rather lose completely on spins with a slightly better chance to bounce back on one spin than sit there and, "Win," $0.10 or what have you all day long. Too many of those kind of, "Wins," in a row tends to piss me off.



ahh.. Stars & Bars = lots of little wins
Black Gold Wild = not many wins, but when it wins, you get alot more $?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
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