winningwizard
winningwizard
Joined: Jul 5, 2019
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July 5th, 2019 at 8:48:18 AM permalink
$500 buy in tournament 500 people.....you table has 10 seats. very first hand of the tournament, you are big blind and you have AA....entire table is all you call or fold? its obvious call for me, but is there anyone out there that would fold?
GWAE
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July 5th, 2019 at 12:12:14 PM permalink
Obviously all in., if this is a real scenario only bad thing is you are going to be up against another aa, kk, IQ, maybe a few suited cards. While you will be a favorite you are not a huge favorite so I honestly wouldnt fault anyone for folding it. It would be an insanely tight fold.
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PokerGrinder
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Romes
July 5th, 2019 at 12:50:37 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Obviously all in., if this is a real scenario only bad thing is you are going to be up against another aa, kk, IQ, maybe a few suited cards. While you will be a favorite you are not a huge favorite so I honestly wouldnt fault anyone for folding it. It would be an insanely tight fold.


Totally incorrect.

If there are 8 players all in on hand one of a no rebuy/no re-entry tournament then this is a fold every time. Against 8 random hands you have between 25-30% chance of winning the hand. Yes you are the favourite against any one hand but you are roughly a 3-1 underdog against 8 other hands. You are going to be knocked out of the tournament with AA 3 of every 4 times. Yes I know youíll end up with a huge stack the 1/4 you win the hand but thatís not enough to justify calling. If you are a winning player in the field than this is an easy decision.

Edit: even worse I misread op, there are NINE other players not 8.
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DRich
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PokerGrinder
July 5th, 2019 at 12:59:04 PM permalink
Quote: winningwizard

$500 buy in tournament 500 people.....you table has 10 seats. very first hand of the tournament, you are big blind and you have AA....entire table is all you call or fold? its obvious call for me, but is there anyone out there that would fold?



Understand, you are a big underdog to win the hand. If you are the winner you will be a monster stack, but most often you will be out.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
TomG
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July 5th, 2019 at 1:13:50 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Totally incorrect.

If there are 8 players all in on hand one of a no rebuy/no re-entry tournament then this is a fold every time. Against 8 random hands you have between 25-30% chance of winning the hand. Yes you are the favourite against any one hand but you are roughly a 3-1 underdog against 8 other hands. You are going to be knocked out of the tournament with AA 3 of every 4 times. Yes I know youíll end up with a huge stack the 1/4 you win the hand but thatís not enough to justify calling. If you are a winning player in the field than this is an easy decision.

Edit: even worse I misread op, there are NINE other players not 8.



Would need to know what your probability of winning is before the hand is dealt, what it would be after winning this hand, and what it would be after folding. Simplest analysis would be a 10 person, winner-take-all tournament. You really think a good player would have a better than 25% chance of winning being behind by that many chips?

The other side would be tournament with 10,000. In those tournaments, what shot would a good player really have? It really wouldn't improve much if given 10-times the starting chips?

An average to below average player should always call. An above average player would seem to need to be way above average to fold
Romes
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PokerGrinder
July 5th, 2019 at 1:21:21 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Totally incorrect.

If there are 8 players all in on hand one of a no rebuy/no re-entry tournament then this is a fold every time. Against 8 random hands you have between 25-30% chance of winning the hand. Yes you are the favourite against any one hand but you are roughly a 3-1 underdog against 8 other hands. You are going to be knocked out of the tournament with AA 3 of every 4 times. Yes I know youíll end up with a huge stack the 1/4 you win the hand but thatís not enough to justify calling. If you are a winning player in the field than this is an easy decision.

Edit: even worse I misread op, there are NINE other players not 8.

PG stole the words out of my mouth... Your aces are a HUGE DOG to "the field" which is the rest of the table.

The thing I'd add is if you're not a pro, then I'd take that gamble. If you are a pro, then I'd rather actually play against the field (especially a table willing to do that).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
gordonm888
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July 5th, 2019 at 1:41:36 PM permalink
I am struggling with this, because I really can't construct reasonable ranges for the other 9 players. With, say, 5 players all-in, I would not expect a reasonable player to call All-In with any hand but AA. Yet, the scenario is that 4 players do indeed decide to go all-in with 5,6,7,and 8 players already All-In.

One specific concern is that it is virtually certain that both other aces are in other player hands; probably AA is in someones hands but, if not, then there are two other A-X. In either case, my chances of improving AA are almost zero, and the chances of at least one of the ten players making 2 pair or better is really pretty high. In the case where another player is AA, then I am unlikely to win more than 1/2 of the chips even when I do win.

I don't understand what is going on and would be concerned that the other 9 players have some kind of agreement (collusion) that I am unaware of. The hand is going to attract attention from the tournament director and stinketh like hell. I came to play poker, and don't want to risk busting out on a first hand in which something crooked may be going on. I FOLD.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
DRich
DRich
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July 5th, 2019 at 1:43:25 PM permalink
I am pretty sure I remember Phil Helmuth folding Aces in the first level of the $10k World Series years ago.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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July 5th, 2019 at 2:18:29 PM permalink
So, if you fold, someone else is going to knock out 8 or maybe 7 others. Unless there's a big bounty, why not let them all kill each other? I'd fold.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TomG
TomG
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July 5th, 2019 at 2:20:49 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I am struggling with this, because I really can't construct reasonable ranges for the other 9 players.



Perhaps one of those free to enter tournaments online, where the prize is an entry into a $10 tournament. I used to try those. A lot of people are going all-in the first couple hands without even looking at their cards.

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