Quads Folded: What was Morgan Holding?
Thread Rating:
Poll
 | 9 votes (37.5%) | ||
| | 4 votes (16.66%) | ||
| | 8 votes (33.33%) | ||
| | 1 vote (4.16%) | ||
| | 2 votes (8.33%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) |
24 members have voted
Quote:In the one million dollar buy-in event Russian businessman Mikhail Smirnov folded a four of a kind, using a pocked pair, on the river. Here was the situation:
Mikhail Smirnov: 8h 8d
Board: 7s Js 8c 8s Ks
John Morgan: ? ?
On the river Smirnov bet $700,000. Morgan went all in with about two million more. Smirnov folded, showing his cards. Morgan has not said whether he had the straight flush or not.
Following the Quads Fold Thread, a poll is offered to vote upon what Morgan was holding.
"This is pointless since we will never know."
Quote: MyselfI don't think he played like he had wired Kings at all. He called 200k on the turn when you'd have to put your opponent on a set. I'd have to try to scare him off my FH draw or Fold in that situation. I think it was a Jacks-Wired boat and some trap setting. The King wouldn't scare him because Smirnov would need them inside for a bigger boat, the pre-flop play rules out inside cowboys for Smirnov, from Morgan's standpoint, I would say.
Quote: paisielloWhat about a regular straight? OR maybe he had nothing. You should put those options out there.
Board Pair = Had Nothing
It means he didn't improve the Community's hand rank, there was a pair on the board giving him, by default, no worse than a pair.
Smirnov just fucking blew it, and he knows it. Arrrggghhh!
This isn't pointless, - as we do know. I would have shown my winning SF if I had it, just to be merciful.
The good thing about the poker bad beat bet is you Don't fold great hands, - no matter the bluster.
Quote: PaigowdanSmirnov just fucking blew it, and he knows it. Arrrggghhh!
The quote from Smirnov was: A bluff is impossible because he likes to play in the tournament and he is not a professional. I think I have no chance to win, plus he was so excited on the turn.
The reasoning seems fairly sound.
Quote: Paigowdan
This isn't pointless, - as we do know. I would have shown my winning SF if I had it, just to be merciful.
The good thing about the poker bad beat bet is you Don't fold great hands, - no matter the bluster.
I wouldn't show the SF, there's really no reason to give my opponent the confidence. In fact, after he showed them, I'd have said something like, "I'll take that fold any day of the week," regardless of what I had. The only time I'll ever show something that I don't have to show is...let me think...I know, NEVER!!!
Quote: pacomartinThe quote from Smirnov was: A bluff is impossible because he likes to play in the tournament and he is not a professional. I think I have no chance to win, plus he was so excited on the turn.
The reasoning seems fairly sound.
My problem with this is:
1.) "A bluff is impossible..."
-No, it's not.
AND
2.) He doesn't have to be bluffing.
-If he had a Jacks-Up FH, that's a perfectly reasonable All-In push, I'd hesitate to do it with an Ace-High Flush on that kind of Board, I'd probably just call the River opening bet with that. I've stated that I think Morgan could rule out Smirnov having wired Cowboys pursuant to the pre-flop play, there's just no way I am going to bet in such a way that lets two other players see the flop with Inside-Kings, I want someone heads-up.
If you include the possibility of Kings, though, there are still only three hands that beat a Jacks-Up FH: FH Kings-Up, Quad-Eights and the SF. It's a reasonable all-in push with the Jacks-Up FH, and probably with any FH better than Eights-Up.
Buzzpaff,
I have a Prop Bet for you. If it becomes known that Morgan was holding anything other than the SF, you put in your signature, "Mission146, a tall, dark and handsome man with a great Roman nose, analyzes poker much better than I gave him credit for," for a month. If Morgan has the SF, then you get my signature for a month, but it can't be anything vulgar or derogatory towards me, excepting only a signature where I admit I blew my call on Morgan's hand.
***I also get to keep, "xxx-One Time!" at the bottom of my signature because my most recent good win always goes there. Actually, you know what, I'll even change that to, "Straight Flush...One Time!"
IMO he had the straight flush.
Quote: MoscaIf he has the straight flush, Morgan gets no value out of showing, and some value out of not showing. If he has the bluff, he gets some value out of showing, and no value out of not showing.
IMO he had the straight flush.
If he has neither, a strong (but otherwise losing) hand that was not a bluff, then he gets value out of not showing. He doesn't want to let the other players know where his all-in threshhold on that kind of board might be.
If someone folded Quad-Eights to my Ace-High Flush, for example, there's no way I let anyone see what a bad all-in push (and hence, bad read) I made.
Quote: paisielloWhat about a regular straight? OR maybe he had nothing. You should put those options out there.
This was my thought as well -- T9 off. I'm also surprised this is not in the voting.
'Brian
Quote: Mission146If he has neither, a strong (but otherwise losing) hand that was not a bluff, then he gets value out of not showing. He doesn't want to let the other players know where his all-in threshhold on that kind of board might be.
If someone folded Quad-Eights to my Ace-High Flush, for example, there's no way I let anyone see what a bad all-in push (and hence, bad read) I made.
I was going from the position that he had one of the strong hands, either the full house or straight flush.
Of course that wouldn't make it a bluff, would it? I guess that's why I don't play poker!
Yet Stephen a World Class Poker player put the line at 2 to1 on the straight flush and Wiz has a bet with Bob Dancer at 3 to 1.
And Wiz is usually good at setting a line, though he does owe me 40 pushups.
The logixc from most poker is not logic at all, merely assumptions. They were not there and know almost nothing about either player.
Yet they continue to explain why they are so sure.
Using that same logic, I can stand by my opinion that they both had Quad 8's. LOL
That said, I makethe call almost every time. I am not a hotshot poker player.... but at a ten dollar buy in table, I instacall.
This link has a good descriptionQuote: JimRockfordHow was the hand played, preflop to river?
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/russian-fold-quads-one-drop-1217390/
The Russian was small blind (6K) and Morgan was big blind (12k) and they both called a $32k raise
The rest is history
Quote: buzzpaffI am amazed at some poster on this and the other thread who not only think he should had called, but know exactly what hand his opponent held.
Yet Stephen a World Class Poker player put the line at 2 to1 on the straight flush and Wiz has a bet with Bob Dancer at 3 to 1.
And Wiz is usually good at setting a line, though he does owe me 40 pushups.
The logixc from most poker is not logic at all, merely assumptions. They were not there and know almost nothing about either player.
Yet they continue to explain why they are so sure.
Using that same logic, I can stand by my opinion that they both had Quad 8's. LOL
I want to know this, if an indivuidual cannot express an opinion having to do with a trivial unknown such as what poker hand someone was holding, how can any person possibly be qualified to offer an opinion about God one way or another? How could you discuss any unknown?
Think of all the great human successes that would not have happened if we did not opine over the unknown...
Quote: Mission146I want to know this, if an indivuidual cannot express an opinion having to do with a trivial unknown such as what poker hand someone was holding, how can any person possibly be qualified to offer an opinion about God one way or another? How could you discuss any unknown?
Ah, but people CAN express opinions on both subjects.
Who has the power to prevent it?
Feel free to add your absolute proof there is a God at anytime. Just don't expect to change anybod'y opinion.
Quote: paisielloWhat about a regular straight? OR maybe he had nothing. You should put those options out there.
That IS a mea culpa on my part. I was looking at the board, and completely forgot that holding one of the Str-Flush cards(9 or 10) + other off Suit (10 or 9) or the pocket was QsTs, or Qs9s was a distict possibility in ruling out the opponent having the NUT hand. Either way, in this particular scenario the hand ranks King-High Flush, one of the choices. OTOH, I completely dissmissed the 9-10 off-flush for the Hand rank of Straight.
My last response on the other thread basically states the wrong move by Morgan at the wrong time, caught Smirnov over-thinking the hand. MHO stands that on the turn, the Jacks-Full caused Quick-Play by Morgan, an interesting anti-tell that caused Smirnov to consider the Str-Flush, and over-think the problem. I believe the chance for the Str-Fl is close to 2 in 3, and the chances for Smirnov's Quads much lower. Low enough that if Morgan IS holding J's Full, the same bet pattern and timing is useful.
edited again: Its a $1 Million Finale, all final seats were generated by a $25,000 Sattellite. Out-of-Pocket was 25 long, but you had to beat 40 others.
Quote: buzzpaffI have absolutely no objection with anyone expressing an opinion . This is a forum, after all. I just get a little annoyed when people proclaim to know absolutely something about which they know nothing.
Feel free to add your absolute proof there is a God at anytime. Just don't expect to change anybod'y opinion.
I want to see where I claimed to absolutely know he had a FH. I'd never offer to make a bet against someone where my end of the bet was 100be ste%, even though I prefer to prop bet at an advantage, because it wouldn't be betting, it'd be stealing. I make no claims to absolutely KNOW he had the FH, (as a reasonable Christian would make no claims to absolutely know there is a God, nor an Athiest claim to absolutely know the opposite) rather, I merely have a strong conviction (or belief) as I am expressing in much the same manner and attempting to defend it.
demand proof where none can reasonable exist. When I get back from the library I intend to post a thread " Some days it's hard to be a Christain " I respectfully ask that you read it before passing judgement on me.
You were not the target of my remarks in any way. Too many posters will cut and run instead of defending their position. You, sir, are obviously not in that category.
Quote: buzzpaffI was not addressing my comment to you, but to those who expressed the opinion that they absolutely knew what the opponent held or that they would ALWAYS call in that situation. And there are many posters who think they can prove their is a God or
demand proof where none can reasonable exist. When I get back from the library I intend to post a thread " Some days it's hard to be a Christain " I respectfully ask that you read it before passing judgement on me.
You were not the target of my remarks in any way. Too many posters will cut and run instead of defending their position. You, sir, are obviously not in that category.
I appreciate the compliment, my apologies as I was mistaken in thinking your recent posts were directed to me, personally.
I will say this, though, I would always call in that situation. I'm a probability player, and he probably ain't got it!
But if it's your money, no one should criticize your decision.
As a side point, Stephen set his line at 2 to 1 and the poll is now exactly 2 to 1 against the SF. Seems like Stephen can do more than chip tricks !!!!
This forum will decide what cards he had. The nerve of him !!
Morgan flops a straight and "called quickly". Js 8c 7sQuote: slytherFWIW On PokerNews's Main Event Day 1A podcast Eugene Catchalov (sp?) said that player told him he had the SF.
No thought or time to raise.
"8s hit the turn. Smirnov bet 200,000. Morgan called instantly."
Instantly?
Did he just fall off the turnip truck?
No thoughts or time to raise with the nuts??
"Smirnov said Morgan looked very excited on the turn"
and we always believe everything we hear from a poker player.
Both players lost the chance to go down in history as heroes.
Quote: buzzpaffI agree with your thinking in a limit game , or even no limit, but in a no-limit Tournament, you might regret making such a call.
But if it's your money, no one should criticize your decision.
As a side point, Stephen set his line at 2 to 1 and the poll is now exactly 2 to 1 against the SF. Seems like Stephen can do more than chip tricks !!!!
I agree here that Tournament NL is a much different beast. Both Morgan and Smirnov called Dwan's 32k pre-flop. 200K instacall on the 8s, IMHO narrows the Morgan hand to JJ or Ts9s, the river King did not help any player. Smirnov going into the tank for 2 minutes means he could not read Morgan hand, it is in Smirnov's view JJ or Ts9s.
I had to go over to 2+2 for this, since its a valid counter-opinion. The link is for post #294. Imagine tanking with Quads to call and beat J's full. Thats rather arrogant, and slow-play.
FWIW there are several tweets that Morgan stated Smirnov "made the right fold" (Quote from post #328). One tweet is reported in Post #328 in the linked thread. The perception and representation is that Morgan himself admits to having the Str-Fl without explicitly stating such.
