Poll

50 votes (89.28%)
3 votes (5.35%)
3 votes (5.35%)

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Wizard
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:34:56 PM permalink
In the one million dollar buy-in event Russian businessman Mikhail Smirnov folded a four of a kind, using a pocked pair, on the river. Here was the situation:

Mikhail Smirnov: 8h 8d

Board: 7s Js 8c 8s Ks

John Morgan: ? ?

On the river Smirnov bet $700,000. Morgan went all in with about two million more. Smirnov folded, showing his cards. Morgan has not said whether he had the straight flush or not.

What do you think was the correct play?

Link for more information: Russian businessman folds four-of-a-kind in $1M poker tournament.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
strictlyAP
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:35:50 PM permalink
first to vote
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
Gabes22
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:40:14 PM permalink
You have to play a 4 of a kind there. If he has the 9 and 10 of spades just tip your hat to him. He could just as easily be raising with pocket Ks, Js or 7s with a full house, perhaps even a Ace high flush. There are so many raisable hands there that you can beat.
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
Nareed
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:41:05 PM permalink
Given it's not my money and I wasn't there, I'd have called.

Of course, the player who was there 1) was using his monwy (or at elast he has to asnwer to his sponsors) and 2) onepresumes he had been studying the other palyers and has made judgments on when they are bluffing or not. The latter is shaky, but it's real.
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Wizard
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:52:26 PM permalink
I want to say that I would have called also. I think the other guy had two spades, one of them the ace, for a nut flush. Of course, I don't know anything about either player, and am not exactly a go-to person when it comes to poker commentary.

By the way, the probability two random cards would be the 9s and 10s are 1 in 990.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RogerKint
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:54:34 PM permalink
I agree with Gabes22. I'd put him on the same hand. Even when you know your oppononent it's hard to tell whether they're holding suited connector or small/mid pair. Since the boat is more common, I'd have to say F it and call.
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DJTeddyBear
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:55:00 PM permalink
Call. Seriously, what are the odds he's got that miracle straight flush? The odds are so long, that had this been a cash game and he had it, it would be a Bad Beat qualifying hand in most casinos.


Of course, now that it's over, I would NEVER ask the other player if he had the straight flush. As much as you are now trying to justify the fold and have convinced yourself that he had it, once you ask, you then have to judge whether or not he gave an honest answer. After all, the bluff doesn't end when the game is over.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
RogerKint
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:56:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I want to say that I would have called also. I think the other guy had the As for a nut flush. Of course, I don't know anything about either player, and am not exactly a go-to person when it comes to poker commentary.

By the way, the probability two random cards would be the 9s and 10s are 1 in 990.



The chance of someone making this play with the board paired would be even lower than that IMO.
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FleaStiff
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July 5th, 2012 at 1:59:30 PM permalink
Beats me... I don't understand whats going on anyway. Yet with four of a kind he is holding too good a hand to go slinking off into the sunset. He would have to have paid more to stay in? Heck, its four of a kind... sure it ain't no guarantee but so what, you play what you got!
Gabes22
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July 5th, 2012 at 2:03:22 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Call. Seriously, what are the odds he's got that miracle straight flush? The odds are so long, that had this been a cash game and he had it, it would be a Bad Beat qualifying hand in most casinos.


Of course, now that it's over, I would NEVER ask the other player if he had the straight flush. As much as you are now trying to justify the fold and have convinced yourself that he had it, once you ask, you then have to judge whether or not he gave an honest answer. After all, the bluff doesn't end when the game is over.



After the flop the straight flush draw was a gut draw, not the made straight flush thus reducing the chances he is holding the 9 and 10 of spades there.
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
Nareed
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July 5th, 2012 at 2:04:46 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

By the way, the probability two random cards would be the 9s and 10s are 1 in 990.



Look at it the other way. Suppose the guy who raised had a flush. What were the odds the first player would have four of a kind? After all, he might also have thought the first guy had a flush. If I held an ace-high flush, I'd raise, too.

ON the other hand, as I recall from your show cards beat chips.
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Ibeatyouraces
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July 5th, 2012 at 2:12:46 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
guido111
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July 5th, 2012 at 2:13:01 PM permalink
In a tournament
Call!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IMO, Absolute horrible play by folding AND showing your cards.

if it is in a cash game in a poker room
Call!!!!!!!!!!
at least there would be a bad beat jackpot hit


What would Maria Ho do?
The 2012 WSOP National Championship Champion (you heard it here first)
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FleaStiff
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July 5th, 2012 at 2:49:50 PM permalink
I imagine the only reason he would do this is for the impact it might have on later hands where if he stayed in the game the other players would think he would really be holding great cards because he folded ones that were merely good.
slyther
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July 5th, 2012 at 2:51:17 PM permalink
Love Maria Ho!

No way I'm good enough to fold in that spot. The other guy never admitted what he had, said he wouldn't tell out of respect for his opponent.

An interesting thing about that tournament, at the final table the players all agreed to table their hands when a pot was folded to them. No idea why.
MrCasinoGames
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July 5th, 2012 at 2:58:25 PM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

After the flop the straight flush draw was a gut draw, not the made straight flush thus reducing the chances he is holding the 9 and 10 of spades there.


After the flop, holding 9 and 10 is a straight.

I thank it is a good Fold.

I thank John Morgan is not buffing. If he is not buffing then he must have (Jack Full-House or the Straight-Flush, may be King Full-House)

I think John Morgan will just call if he has Jack Full-House or King Full-House.

So I think John Morgan has the straight-flush.

Also if a player is playing with 9 and 10 in this game, it most likely be Suited.
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
DJTeddyBear
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July 5th, 2012 at 3:08:56 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I imagine the only reason he would do this is for the impact it might have on later hands where if he stayed in the game the other players would think he would really be holding great cards because he folded ones that were merely good.

No way. Quite the opposite, in fact.

By showing the quads, he's saying that, if the situation is right, and you sell the bluff very well, you can get him to fold a monster.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
slyther
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July 5th, 2012 at 3:16:58 PM permalink
In however many hands I played on my recent trip to Vegas (which was 3 tournaments, 1 of which was 2 days) I only showed 1 un-called hand. Though I will show my BB hand if I get a walk, just for fun.
Mosca
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July 5th, 2012 at 3:24:58 PM permalink
Reading the story, and Smirnov's explanation, there's no doubt to me that he read the other guy and knew he had the straight flush.
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duckmankilla
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July 5th, 2012 at 3:28:11 PM permalink
The thing about tournaments this large and for this much money is that pot odds don't apply as much when a tournament life is on the line. If the player felt that he could outplay his opponents and wait for a better spot, there's really no reason to call there if he is absolutely convinced that he is beat. In a cash game, this is almost an immediate call as the 4 of a kind is good in so many scenarios that in the rare occurrence it is beat, you can simply re-buy and try again. In the WSOP, you can't rebuy and there is no second chance until next year. I'd have to be in that situation, watching and studying the other players for hours on end and analyzing how they play before I could say good or bad call in this scenario. FWIW, I'm almost positive that I would make the call without any background information but I can see the best of the best making a fold like this in the right spot. That's what sets the pros apart from the amateurs IMO.
buzzpaff
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July 5th, 2012 at 4:35:11 PM permalink
I agree with Stephen. People confuse Poker Tournaments with POKER. These are 2 distinct and very, very, different games.

It's day 1 on top of everything. FOLD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mission146
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July 5th, 2012 at 4:36:30 PM permalink
You'd have to call. His opponent could have had any number of raisable hands, and it's also very unlikely that his opponent put him on a 4oaK.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
buzzpaff
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July 5th, 2012 at 5:29:38 PM permalink
FOLD It's a TOURNAMENT !
Mission146
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July 5th, 2012 at 5:40:09 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

FOLD It's a TOURNAMENT !



I'll fold inside Aces against an All-In followed up with someone else who has already called if both of them have a bigger stack than me and we're Pre-Flop. I'm not folding a 4oaK when there is literally only ONE OTHER HAND that can beat me. I play my probabilities at the Poker Table as much as possible, and I'm sorry, but I think I am going to be better than 50% to win that hand.

The explanation was that he knew the opponent is a tight player. Do you know when a tight player plays loose? He doesn't play loose to steal a few blinds, he plays loose to steal a huge pile of money early on in a tournament. He picks his spots.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
buzzpaff
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July 5th, 2012 at 6:19:05 PM permalink
Maybe SWITCH will see this. He and Stephen are both world class tournament players, something neither you or I are NOT.
Mission146
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July 5th, 2012 at 6:27:42 PM permalink
I will most definitely stipulate that!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
buzzpaff
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July 5th, 2012 at 6:41:00 PM permalink
Plus a lot of info Missing . How many players and payoffs. And who know if 4 8's is first or nothing, looking to make the cut etc?
Ayecarumba
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July 5th, 2012 at 8:10:49 PM permalink
I think Smirnov should have called the all-in. In his own words, his opponent was a "straightforward" player who was "excited" to the see the second 8 on the turn, but not scared of the King on the river.

If Morgan had the straight flush on the turn, don't you think he would have raised instead of calling a $200,000 pot sized bet? He had to believe that his opponent had a set hand, (perhaps a set, but more likely a flush or full house) to lead out with that kind of bet. A call on the turn actually decreases the value of his river action if it is a card that puts other strong hands on the board (a third 8, a second jack, the queen of spades), or if Smirnov was semi-bluffing, and did not make his draw. In other words, the best time for a raise, if Morgan did have the straight flush, would have been after the turn.

I think Morgan had a pair in the hole, possibly sevens or Jacks.
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Wizard
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July 6th, 2012 at 4:03:31 AM permalink
Bob Dancer and I talked about this both off and on the air yesterday. I think it was off the air that Bob said that he heard that Morgan seemed angry that Smirnov folded the bet. However, maybe it was more shock than anger. Who knows how many people the story was told through before it got to me, and then you guys.

Bob did say that the tournament will be televised, with the hole card camera, in late July. So we will all know the answer soon enough. I offered to bet Bob that Morgan didn't have the straight flush, but he scoffed at my even money offer. What do you think would be a fair line?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DJTeddyBear
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July 6th, 2012 at 4:28:05 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Bob did say that the tournament will be televised, with the hole card camera, in late July. So we will all know the answer soon enough.

Unless I'm mistaken, you're talking about The Big One For One Drop game, right?

That was AREADY televised - on a 15 minute delay.

As I understand it, that particular hand occurred on one of the outer tables - without hole card cameras.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
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July 6th, 2012 at 4:41:44 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Unless I'm mistaken, you're talking about The Big One For One Drop game, right?



I don't know. Perhaps you can write to Bob and ask. I'll PM you the address of the show.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Tiltpoul
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July 6th, 2012 at 4:48:55 AM permalink
There are a lot of variables that we don't know about to make a judgment call as to whether it was the correct fold.

However, given the incomplete information, I have to believe that the fold was not justified. There IS such a thing as playing too tight, and folding rolled 8s for quads when there isn't a 3 of kind or 4-to-a-straight flush on the board is playing too tight. If the board was A-A-A-8-8, then a fold is probably warranted. But it's hard to imagine anybody playing 9s-10s unless they are in the BB in an unraised pot preflop. Given the fact that the guy had 8-8, I don't believe the pot would have been unraised.

Coincidentally, pocket 8s is one of my favorite hands at HSI. TWICE I had them, and had two people essentially push all-in in front of me when I already hit my quads!
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Ibeatyouraces
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July 6th, 2012 at 5:22:47 AM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
DJTeddyBear
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July 6th, 2012 at 6:49:36 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I don't know. Perhaps you can write to Bob and ask.

I may do that. First I gotta download and listen to the show to see what was discussed. (I normally do that on Saturdays....)
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
duffytootx
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July 6th, 2012 at 6:57:48 AM permalink
I would have called. He may have had a pair of Kings and figured he had the biggest boat.
Mission146
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July 6th, 2012 at 7:47:07 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Bob Dancer and I talked about this both off and on the air yesterday. I think it was off the air that Bob said that he heard that Morgan seemed angry that Smirnov folded the bet. However, maybe it was more shock than anger. Who knows how many people the story was told through before it got to me, and then you guys.

Bob did say that the tournament will be televised, with the hole card camera, in late July. So we will all know the answer soon enough. I offered to bet Bob that Morgan didn't have the straight flush, but he scoffed at my even money offer. What do you think would be a fair line?



I woud say that he could conceivably make that kind of bet with either a FH or A-High Flush in that situation, or, of course, the Straight Flush. It is very doubtful that it was a stone cold bluff, so I won't factor that into it. Three different hand ranks that he could have played that, so I think you should lay 3:1. I wouldn't throw down for anything less than 5:1, but you'd be crazy to give that to me.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MrCasinoGames
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July 6th, 2012 at 7:54:02 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Bob Dancer and I talked about this both off and on the air yesterday. I think it was off the air that Bob said that he heard that Morgan seemed angry that Smirnov folded the bet. However, maybe it was more shock than anger. Who knows how many people the story was told through before it got to me, and then you guys.

Bob did say that the tournament will be televised, with the hole card camera, in late July. So we will all know the answer soon enough. I offered to bet Bob that Morgan didn't have the straight flush, but he scoffed at my even money offer. What do you think would be a fair line?


Quote: Mission146

I woud say that he could conceivably make that kind of bet with either a FH or A-High Flush in that situation, or, of course, the Straight Flush. It is very doubtful that it was a stone cold bluff, so I won't factor that into it. Three different hand ranks that he could have played that, so I think you should lay 3:1. I wouldn't throw down for anything less than 5:1, but you'd be crazy to give that to me.


Wizard,
I will have a bet of $200 to win $600 that Morgan did have the straight flush.
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
s2dbaker
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July 6th, 2012 at 8:12:47 AM permalink
You don't bluff a good poker player. Since he refused to show his hand, I'm thinking that he had the straight flush. The Russian lives another day.

Edit:I I got this exactly backward. He should have called!!
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Wizard
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July 6th, 2012 at 8:19:21 AM permalink
Quote: MrCasinoGames

Wizard, I will have a bet of $200 to win $600 that Morgan did have the straight flush.



Thanks. Can you confirm that the truth will be known with a broadcast in July? Laying 3 to 1 feels about right to me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
MrCasinoGames
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July 6th, 2012 at 8:19:56 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks. Can you confirm that the truth will be known with a broadcast in July? Laying 3 to 1 feels about right to me.


I can't confirm that the truth will be known with a broadcast in July.

Let me know how we can make this bet. If we can't confirm that the truth.
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
Mission146
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July 6th, 2012 at 8:43:40 AM permalink
Easy.

No hole-card cam = Push
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MrCasinoGames
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July 6th, 2012 at 8:49:21 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks. Can you confirm that the truth will be known with a broadcast in July? Laying 3 to 1 feels about right to me.


OK Wizard,

If the truth will be known with a broadcast any time in 2012, then it is a bet.
Otherwise it is no bet.

Confirm if this is OK with you.
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
Mission146
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July 6th, 2012 at 9:21:16 AM permalink
Wizard,

I like a good proposition bet myself, but I don't roll high with them because I am chickenexcrement. However, I will call the exact hand as a Jacks-Up Full House for $20 if you lay 7:1.

Alternatively, I'll take a Jacks-Up Full House OR Kings up Full House for $20 at 5.5:1.

I'd normally just ask for 5:1 with the latter, but I don't think he played like he had wired Kings at all. He called 200k on the turn when you'd have to put your opponent on a set. I'd have to try to scare him off my FH draw or Fold in that situation. I think it was a Jacks-Wired boat and some trap setting. The King wouldn't scare him because Smirnov would need them inside for a bigger boat, the pre-flop play rules out inside cowboys for Smirnov, from Morgan's standpoint, I would say.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
WASHOO2
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July 6th, 2012 at 9:49:58 AM permalink
There are instances when it is better to forego a win than to realize a loss.
98Clubs
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July 6th, 2012 at 10:27:32 AM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

You have to play a 4 of a kind there. If he has the 9 and 10 of spades just tip your hat to him. He could just as easily be raising with pocket Ks, Js or 7s with a full house, perhaps even a Ace high flush. There are so many raisable hands there that you can beat.



+1 Nothing for me to add. Gotta call.
I'll vote for FH J's/8's
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
TheJacob
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July 6th, 2012 at 2:28:50 PM permalink
When Phil Galfond says its not awful and the guy has the straight flush 50%+ I believe him.

Its still a call obviously and I wasn't at the table, but I think its pretty rare he has anything but JJ and 9sTs here.

Its not as bad as it seems. The guy calls preflop, calls flop, calls turn, and jams river. That line really does a lot to define his range.
I don't know anything about this player, but a lot of players just won't have JJ much after flatting flop or KK after flatting preflop.

I can't find the exact details of the hand, but I think they were deep enough that raising 77 on the river is just spew. There are a lot of full houses and those are the only hands that are calling.

No doubt its a call, but the only way you should be excited about it is if your opponent is a giant fish and jams the As.
Zcore13
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July 6th, 2012 at 4:32:19 PM permalink
I've been playing Poker for 25 years and dealing/supervising it for 6. Folding quads was a terrible decision. Given that situation over and over again there is no doubt you would win FAR more times than lose. Most likely he was up agains the nut flush or full house, with the other guy having pocket K's J's or 7"s. It may turn out to be ok for him on this hand, but it was a bad play all in all.

Zcore13
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TheJacob
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July 6th, 2012 at 4:42:43 PM permalink
The board is paired and they started the hand ~230BBs deep the best I can gather.

The shove on the river is for ~170BBs more.
He has the nutflush never. He has 77 almost never.

This isn't a 100BB deep hand. Its over 200BBs deep where the preflop raise was a minraise and the flopbet was small. Which makes the turn and river actually play deeper.

It is a call, but I don't think you are winning here as often as some people seem to think.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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July 6th, 2012 at 5:47:34 PM permalink
If you can not lay down a hand that might have been a winner, you are not a world class poker player.
He thought his quads were beat, that says it all !
98Clubs
98Clubs
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July 6th, 2012 at 6:35:26 PM permalink
Just how late in this tournament did this occur???
If in the money, no f'in way do I fold Quads, no way.
Even late, near the money with that board, I'll call the shove.
Late tournament means play'em if ya gottem.
Fishhooks full by the turn with a waste card.
Spade Ace with paint, maybe... but that board is paired.
Nothing like the wrong move at the wrong time (Shoving the pot with Ace-Flush/FH).
I think the Russian regrets it.

Besides, pocket Jacks sux.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
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