Comparing Stock Market Strategies

Until a few weeks ago, you'd have had to have been a terrible stock picker not to have been doing well. Everyone I know picks some losers, but so what? I never paid attention to any of ZG's stock picks, so I've no idea how he does. I wish him well and hope he has a good life.

Quote:

If those are from here, I haven't checked into those. Im going by... link to original post

Oh. Of course.

[This space reserved for reader's favorite choice of an "emogi" thingy.]

Quote: billryan

...I never paid attention to any of ZG's stock picks, so...
link to original post

Uh, yeah ya kinda did. You were the most frequent poster in his stock touting thread:

[Some other remarks were... less polite in their implications.]

Quote: billryan

Someone with a net worth of $50,000 and no certain source of income shouldn't be speculating on junk stocks.
What are you going to do? Tie up a quarter of your worth? A good rule of thumb is 3 to 5 percent of your portfolio in any one stock.
link to original post

Quote: billryan

The good news for the company is many of its target audience doesn't know how to use a computer. The bad news is they are dying off rather quickly. I thought Ann Taylor died off in the 70s. link to original post

And I'd have no quibble with any part of that. And more generally, when someone starts loudly touting what others should do with their money, whether it's buy this hot stock now or sports bet touts or call now for an herbal miracle hair growth & weight loss formula, it is very appropriate for questioning and disagreement to be not merely allowed but encouraged.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: billryan

...I never paid attention to any of ZG's stock picks, so...
link to original post

Uh, yeah ya kinda did. You were the most frequent poster in his stock touting thread:

[Some other remarks were... less polite in their implications.]

Quote: billryan

Someone with a net worth of $50,000 and no certain source of income shouldn't be speculating on junk stocks.
What are you going to do? Tie up a quarter of your worth? A good rule of thumb is 3 to 5 percent of your portfolio in any one stock.
link to original post

Quote: billryan

The good news for the company is many of its target audience doesn't know how to use a computer. The bad news is they are dying off rather quickly. I thought Ann Taylor died off in the 70s. link to original post

And I'd have no quibble with any part of that. And more generally, when someone starts loudly touting what others should do with their money, whether it's buy this hot stock now or sports bets or call now for an herbal miracle hair growth & weight loss formula, it is very appropriate for questioning and disagreement to be not merely allowed but encouraged.
link to original post

I have no memory of that. I'll have to reread the thread Edit- I count four posts I made in that thread and I'd stand by every one of them today.

Quote:

I have no memory of that. I'll have to reread the thread

Well then, I'm sincerely sorry to inflict that, as it clearly wasn't an enlightening or enjoyable little ride at the time for those participating. Forgetting is not always a bad thing. Methinks sometimes it exists for some good evolutionary survival reasons. Sometimes.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: billryan

...I never paid attention to any of ZG's stock picks, so...
link to original post

Uh, yeah ya kinda did. You were the most frequent poster in his stock touting thread:

[Some other remarks were... less polite in their implications.]

Quote: billryan

Someone with a net worth of $50,000 and no certain source of income shouldn't be speculating on junk stocks.
What are you going to do? Tie up a quarter of your worth? A good rule of thumb is 3 to 5 percent of your portfolio in any one stock.
link to original post

Quote: billryan

The good news for the company is many of its target audience doesn't know how to use a computer. The bad news is they are dying off rather quickly. I thought Ann Taylor died off in the 70s. link to original post

And I'd have no quibble with any part of that. And more generally, when someone starts loudly touting what others should do with their money, whether it's buy this hot stock now or sports bet touts or call now for an herbal miracle hair growth & weight loss formula, it is very appropriate for questioning and disagreement to be not merely allowed but encouraged.
link to original post

I'm one of the most skeptical people you will find on the forums. Especially when it comes to touts, as you mentioned above.

Don't get me started on herbal medicine, vitamin supplements, keto diets, and betting systems.

Anyways, when it comes to stock picking, I can only go on someone's history over the years. ZenK isn't selling or promoting anything(just his ego?). I even offered him a deal where I front 10k-20 and he takes a nice free roll %. He declined.

I'm up on evrything he has suggested(no charge, just bragging). He always has some logic and good fundamentals behind his picks. Unfortunately, I have only invested in a few of his overall picks.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: billryan

...I never paid attention to any of ZG's stock picks, so...
link to original post

Uh, yeah ya kinda did. You were the most frequent poster in his stock touting thread:

[Some other remarks were... less polite in their implications.]

Quote: billryan

Someone with a net worth of $50,000 and no certain source of income shouldn't be speculating on junk stocks.
What are you going to do? Tie up a quarter of your worth? A good rule of thumb is 3 to 5 percent of your portfolio in any one stock.
link to original post

Quote: billryan

The good news for the company is many of its target audience doesn't know how to use a computer. The bad news is they are dying off rather quickly. I thought Ann Taylor died off in the 70s. link to original post

And I'd have no quibble with any part of that. And more generally, when someone starts loudly touting what others should do with their money, whether it's buy this hot stock now or sports bet touts or call now for an herbal miracle hair growth & weight loss formula, it is very appropriate for questioning and disagreement to be not merely allowed but encouraged.
link to original post

I'm one of the most skeptical people you will find on the forums. Especially when it comes to touts, as you mentioned above.

Don't get me started on herbal medicine, vitamin supplements, keto diets, and betting systems.

Anyways, when it comes to stock picking, I can only go on someone's history over the years. ZenK isn't selling or promoting anything(just his ego?). I even offered him a deal where I front 10k-20 and he takes a nice free roll %. He declined.

I'm up on evrything he has suggested(no charge, just bragging). He always has some logic and good fundamentals behind his picks. Unfortunately, I have only invested in a few of his overall picks.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: billryan

...I never paid attention to any of ZG's stock picks, so...
link to original post

Uh, yeah ya kinda did. You were the most frequent poster in his stock touting thread:

[Some other remarks were... less polite in their implications.]

Quote: billryan

Someone with a net worth of $50,000 and no certain source of income shouldn't be speculating on junk stocks.
What are you going to do? Tie up a quarter of your worth? A good rule of thumb is 3 to 5 percent of your portfolio in any one stock.
link to original post

Quote: billryan

The good news for the company is many of its target audience doesn't know how to use a computer. The bad news is they are dying off rather quickly. I thought Ann Taylor died off in the 70s. link to original post

And I'd have no quibble with any part of that. And more generally, when someone starts loudly touting what others should do with their money, whether it's buy this hot stock now or sports bet touts or call now for an herbal miracle hair growth & weight loss formula, it is very appropriate for questioning and disagreement to be not merely allowed but encouraged.
link to original post

I'm one of the most skeptical people you will find on the forums. Especially when it comes to touts, as you mentioned above.

Don't get me started on herbal medicine, vitamin supplements, keto diets, and betting systems.

Anyways, when it comes to stock picking, I can only go on someone's history over the years. ZenK isn't selling or promoting anything(just his ego?). I even offered him a deal where I front 10k-20 and he takes a nice free roll %. He declined.

I'm up on evrything he has suggested(no charge, just bragging). He always has some logic and good fundamentals behind his picks. Unfortunately, I have only invested in a few of his overall picks.

Quote: DrawingDead

I'm one of the most skeptical people you will find on the forums. Especially when it comes to touts, and things you mentioned above.

Don't get me started on herbal medicine, vitamin supplements, keto diets, and betting systems.

Anyways, when it comes to stock picking, I can only go on someone's history over the years. ZenK isn't selling or promoting anything(just his ego)

I'm up on evrything he has suggested(no charge, just him bragging).

He always has some logic and good fundamentals behind his picks. Unfortunately, I have only invested in a few of his overall picks, but I have been keeping track of his other picks

Is it luck or variance? I can't say 100% sure, but he is way over the standard deviations.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: DrawingDead

I'm one of the most skeptical people you will find on the forums. Especially when it comes to touts, and things you mentioned above.

Don't get me started on herbal medicine, vitamin supplements, keto diets, and betting systems.

Anyways, when it comes to stock picking, I can only go on someone's history over the years. ZenK isn't selling or promoting anything(just his ego)

I'm up on evrything he has suggested(no charge, just him bragging).

He always has some logic and good fundamentals behind his picks. Unfortunately, I have only invested in a few of his overall picks, but I have been keeping track of his other picks

Is it luck or variance? I can't say 100% sure, but he is way over the standard deviations.
link to original post

I fully understand that you truly, sincerely & confidently believe that, about him, and you.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: DrawingDead

I'm one of the most skeptical people you will find on the forums. Especially when it comes to touts, and things you mentioned above.

Don't get me started on herbal medicine, vitamin supplements, keto diets, and betting systems.

Anyways, when it comes to stock picking, I can only go on someone's history over the years. ZenK isn't selling or promoting anything(just his ego)

I'm up on evrything he has suggested(no charge, just him bragging).

He always has some logic and good fundamentals behind his picks. Unfortunately, I have only invested in a few of his overall picks, but I have been keeping track of his other picks

Is it luck or variance? I can't say 100% sure, but he is way over the standard deviations.
link to original post

In January 2017, the Dow was just over 20,000
In January 2025, it had doubled to well over 40,000.
Almost everybody has done berry berry well over that period. I'm glad you and he have done well, but it wasn't unusual

For some, doing well involves a rigorous set of specific verifiable well-defined quantitative metrics, recorded without exception. For some others, not.

I have seen more than a few poker players who truly 'know' they just 'ran over the table.' Again. After their third or fourth re-buy.

Such is the nature of the amazing instrument known as the human mind.

Quote: ZenKinG

ASNA + Macy's + XLP + Bitcoin = wealth
link to original post

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the link is the only stock picking thread I could find from Zenking - maybe I missed one - IDK

in this link he touts 3 stocks - little Asna which he says will go a lot higher than $1.83 - he says it will shoot up to $3.50 - it's current price is $0.61

then he touts Macy's at $21.90 - it's now at $11.01 - it's done nothing but go down since he touted it in 2017

he did make a good call on XLP which has gone up quite a bit since he touted it but nowhere near 500% - it has about doubled since 2017

in fairness to Zenking these posts were made in 2017 - I could not find either Macy's or Asna doing anything but going down since 2017

I'm thinking Axel prolly saw other picks from ZenKinG elsewhere -


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/28980-most-undervalued-beaten-down-stock-on-the-market/


.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: ZenKinG

ASNA + Macy's + XLP + Bitcoin = wealth
link to original post

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the link is the only stock picking thread I could find from Zenking - maybe I missed one - IDK

in this link he touts 3 stocks - little Asna which he says will go a lot higher than $1.83 - he says it will shoot up to $3.50 - it's current price is $0.61

then he touts Macy's at $21.90 - it's now at $11.01 - it's done nothing but go down since he touted it in 2017

he did make a good call on XLP which has gone up quite a bit since he touted it but nowhere near 500% - it has about doubled since 2017

in fairness to Zenking these posts were made in 2017 - I could not find either Macy's or Asna doing anything but going down since 2017

I'm thinking Axel prolly saw other picks from ZenKinG elsewhere -


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/28980-most-undervalued-beaten-down-stock-on-the-market/


.
link to original post

Yes, both in person, on Discord, and in chat. I didn't start paying any attention to his picks until after COVID started.

I just realized that five of my six biggest holdings didn't exist in 2017. I'm not sure that is a good thing.

Quote: lilredrooster

he did make a good call on XLP which has gone up quite a bit since he touted it but nowhere near 500% - it has about doubled since 2017

link to original post

Hard to believe that Walmart, snack chips, Coke, Twinkies, and smokes would suddenly do poorly....

Given the mix of the brands XLP invests in, I'm mildly surprised it's not performing significantly better.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: lilredrooster

he did make a good call on XLP which has gone up quite a bit since he touted it but nowhere near 500% - it has about doubled since 2017

link to original post

Hard to believe that Walmart, snack chips, Coke, Twinkies, and smokes would suddenly do poorly....

Given the mix of the brands XLP invests in, I'm mildly surprised it's not performing significantly better.
link to original post

Right, they aren't suddenly doing poorly; instead, XLP is doing relatively poorly gradualy, steadily, and dependably. From 4/17 to present this Consumer Staples Index has significantly lagged the performance of the broad market S&P 500, so that "good call" did less well than the EV of blind chimp dart throwing.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: Dieter

Quote: lilredrooster

he did make a good call on XLP which has gone up quite a bit since he touted it but nowhere near 500% - it has about doubled since 2017

link to original post

Hard to believe that Walmart, snack chips, Coke, Twinkies, and smokes would suddenly do poorly....

Given the mix of the brands XLP invests in, I'm mildly surprised it's not performing significantly better.
link to original post

Right, they aren't suddenly doing poorly; instead, XLP is doing relatively poorly gradualy, steadily, and dependably. From 4/17 to present this Consumer Staples Index has significantly lagged the performance of the broad market S&P 500, so that "good call" did less well than the EV of blind chimp dart throwing.
link to original post

DD is correct

2 of the 3 picks from ZenKinG were horrible - and the other one was just poor - "good call" was not an apt description of it - my bad

.

It seems like the person who actually invested their money is happy, while the peanut gallery is harping on a six-year-old thread with three picks.

Quote: lilredrooster

...<SNIP>...

2 of the 3 picks from ZenKinG were horrible - and the other one was just poor - "good call" was not an apt description of it - my bad

.
link to original post

Well, it is one of those things that depends on what one is comparing it to and trying to accomplish. That appropriately varies between individuals. And, trying to come up with something potentially useful to someone out of that smoldering dumpster fire that streaked across the forum for a little while and inevitably imploded on itself...

If they don't already, folks should know the XLP "Consumer Staples" index is just the kind of thing that a professional financial advisor would likely suggest to clients who are relatively risk averse and becoming particularly concerned with the safety of their portfolio if there's a significant probability of an economic contraction and potential bear market. In other words, that sector specific index tends to be a lot less volatile, in both directions, than the broader market indices that include some relatively "high beta" securities with more growth potential.

So, it is commonly thought of as a place to sorta halfway hibernate in tough times. For a variety of reasons I'm not doing that with that, even though I personally happen to think the bear market contraction probability is now at least as high or higher than the current consensus of 50-60%. But I'm not in the business of helping manage others' financial affairs, and suggesting it as a partial cushion that doesn't go down so much in a downturn would be a perfectly reasonable and commonly suggested option for some.

On the other hand, that reality also happens to be exactly the opposite of what the Z-guy clearly thought he was up to with it, in his uniquely vehement 'don't be a stupid drone, getcha sum big bux, cuz number gonna go way up fast' ranting & raving.

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>>>>>WoV Social Clubhouse Crap>>>>>>

EDIT to add: BillDude, the "peanut gallery is harping" on the data points that actually exist, in response to someone popping up yesterday promoting the purported financial genius of his buddy, the former member banned for what would charitably be described as extremely erratic behavior, doing so with no actual metrics of any sort other than his unquantified feelings from assorted selected recollections. Exactly the sort of thing that generally results in "seeing" what you feel you want to "find" and excluding "don't count" things. It is precisely as credible as some folk's description of spectacularly successful baccarat results. At best, it is called confirmation bias, combined here with an extreme case of Dunning-Kruger syndrome in which confidence becomes inversely proportional to knowlege & understanding. Really extreme. But snide on, its what you do, and it won't tend to mute anybody who isn't a newbie around here. Responses to the little "investing" infomercial have been very restrained, all things considered. "All things" that would be considered, are described here: DSM-V manual, more than in "investment" discussion, and it isn't the least bit subtle or a close call.

People grow and change. Picking good stocks isn't that hard, and it's very possible that the OP took a few hours and learned a bit more than they knew when they posted. Maybe he used COVID to learn how to beat the market. It isn't that hard.

People grow and change. Picking good stocks isn't that hard, and it's very possible that the OP took a few hours and learned a bit more than they knew when they posted. Maybe he used COVID to learn how to beat the market. It isn't that hard.

Quote: AxelWolf

Crazy ass ZenKinG had been the only one who has given his stock picks suggestions (and reasons why) that have done super well. Some as much as 500%.

By definition, "picks" are worthless. What has value is actually betting or investing on it. Did he really believe there was a big edge and bet anywhere close to Kelly on them? If yes, that's awesome. But a true rarity.

I used to mess around buying any individual stock that caught my attention when I first found the "high-frequency" Robinhood style apps. There were definitely bets that returned 200%+ in there. But never for a lot of money, and the losers dragged the total returns down to no better than the market as a whole. That's become a much more common result.

I think ZK has the added barrier of needing a big chunk of his money available for casino games, which limits what he can bet on financial markets.

Quote: billryan

You don't seem to understand how investment banking works. Having a 4.0 from Wharton doesn't mean you get to start as a fund manager. It gets you a seat on the back bench, doing menial research and being one of numerous assistants to those who matter to the firm.. Half the people who fail do so because they can't work the 70-100 hour weeks for years. Most of the rest lose their jobs because the people directly above them screwed the pooch and the team is let go. Unless you are a wunderkind, you will do research for someone who reports to someone who might report to someone who makes a decision. You mainly advance by attrition as those above you move up or move along.

You already noted this had degraded into trolling, so why keep doing it?

There may be some that do what you describe; and there are plenty of places that do the opposite. Places that believe if they aren't willing to throw someone into the fire right away, they aren't worth hiring. They'll be paid a moderate salary and if they can handle the working conditions and perform well enough they get their bonuses; if not they part ways. The bonuses are based on multi-year averages, so keep beating the market every year and it gets very high. Use that bonus money on bets that beat the market and it compounds into a huge number. I've crossed paths with a few people who have taken that route and done well for themselves. Not into the billion dollar range simply because they didn't beat the market consistently enough. But if they did, it absolutely would have got there.

"Unless you are a wunderkind"

Someone who can beat the stock market consistently qualifies as exactly that.

And even if that path starts in the late 20s instead of the early 20s, it still leads to the same place after enough years. What you said is analogous to saying how near impossible it is to get a big contract for hitting 50 homeruns per year because they'll have to start in the minors. Of course it's near impossible, but for the few people of each generation who can do it, they all get paid.