In my opinion all of this has been way overdone. ASNA brought in close to 7 billion in revenue last year with gross profit at nearly 4 billion and operating cash flows have increased every year for the past 5 years. They also have hundreds of millions in free cash flow to steadily pay off their remaining 1.5 billion in debt until 2022. Even if sales were to decline 7% for the next 5 years(conservative estimate) you're still looking at a stock that is grossly undervalued. What these shorts and pessimists around the stock don't understand is although the CEO cut guidance in sales numbers, he also mentioned cutting capital expenditures and saving around 250-300 million a year compared to the previous 100-150 million. If you start getting into the valuation metrics as well, this stock has a book value of over $9.00, which probably will come down a bit after a couple more quarters of declining sales, but nonetheless will still be a lot higher than its current price of 1.83. Even when you look at the price/sales and forward P/E they are all vastly undervalued and when compared to their peers, all much lower.
My plan and recommendation is to wait for the earnings report to come out next week with reduced numbers and let people walk it down a bit more, let it consolidate and start buying this grossly undervalued stock on the cheap. Brick and mortar stores will always have a place in society. People will eventually get sick of ordering clothes online that don't fit and start filling up the department stores once again. I think these retail executives just need to make some adjustments and get some online promotions going on to get their sales back on track because millennials love everything online these days and the trajectory does seem to be heading online.
About 1 year later silver $ 17.62.Quote: MaxPenA lot of implied volatility priced into the options. Usually an indicator of expected big moves. Good luck.
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Quote: AxelWolfAbout 1 year later silver $ 17.62.
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Your problem is you are trying to measure insurance in dollars. Good luck with that. I've been clear on my stance regarding silver from the beginning. It is however, the most under valued and oversold commodity in the world right now. You can't fight the owners of the press.
Quote: MaxPenYour problem is you are trying to measure insurance in dollars. Good luck with that. I've been clear on my stance regarding silver from the beginning. It is however, the most under valued and oversold commodity in the world right now. You can't find the owners of the press.
"Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt (USD) is the money of slaves." Norm Franz
Good luck explaining to your wife why she can't take anything but silver to your bunker. If it comes down to that, I think guns, ammo, gas medicine, water, and food will be my top priorities. If someone came to me with silver to trade, I would laugh or shoot at them.Quote: MaxPenYour problem is you are trying to measure insurance in dollars. Good luck with that. I've been clear on my stance regarding silver from the beginning. It is however, the most under valued and oversold commodity in the world right now. You can't find the owners of the press.
Just messing with ya, it's good to diversify.
Quote: AxelWolfGood luck explaining to your wife why she can't take anything but silver to your bunker. If it comes down to that, I think guns, ammo, gas medicine, water, and food will be my top priorities. If someone came to me with silver to trade, I would laugh or shoot at them.
Just messing with ya, it's good to diversify.
Lighters! And lots and lots of booze.
I keep telling you, you can't smoke booze.Quote: RogerKintLighters! And lots and lots of booze.
Quote: AxelWolfI keep telling you, you can't smoke booze.
The hell I can't! Explosion.jpg
Sorry for dooking on yer thread zk. With all your algorithms and fancy numbers, and such yer for sure gonna AP the dickens out of the markets. Just be careful, I heard it's rigged.
Quote: AxelWolfGood luck explaining to your wife why she can't take anything but silver to your bunker. If it comes down to that, I think guns, ammo, gas medicine, water, and food will be my top priorities. If someone came to me with silver to trade, I would laugh or shoot at them.
Just messing with ya, it's good to diversify.
Would you like to sell your silver?😋
Guns and ammo covered. Enough for a fire team. Did you not know that?
My list of barterable items comes from observations of Argentina and Bosnia. Long shelf life Foods, water filtration devices, solar devices, medicines, toiletries, tools, and trade skills. Once you have that all covered metal is the store of wealth.
Have you stepped into a Dress Barn lately? There are never any customers.
How about a Lane Bryant? No customers. Even the targeted demo doesn't want to be seen inside a Lane Bryant. It's an insult to a girl to ask her if she shops at Lane Bryant. Lane Bryant is a toxic brand that's become a joke, and it's one of their better known brands.
But, good luck.
Quote: klimate10ZK,
Have you stepped into a Dress Barn lately? There are never any customers.
How about a Lane Bryant? No customers. Even the targeted demo doesn't want to be seen inside a Lane Bryant. It's an insult to a girl to ask her if she shops at Lane Bryant. Lane Bryant is a toxic brand that's become a joke, and it's one of their better known brands.
But, good luck.
No, I don't know anything about them, I'm just a numbers guy and I see a pathetic cheap valuation for the numbers they're producing. Let's see how bad the numbers are this quarter. Even if they're bad, the price is still not justified.
ASNA is a good speculative play, and the big risk is see is its 1.5 billion debt in this very tough retail environment.
Quote: 777Retail space is out of favor now because of recent BK filings and store closings from many retailers. Big retailers like JCP and SHLD are not doing well, and there is a big concern in the market whether Sears can survive.
ASNA is a good speculative play, and the big risk is see is its 1.5 billion debt in this very tough retail environment.
Just can't help but feel that ASNA is nearing the bottom. This company will not go bankrupt at least not in the next 3-5 years. I just think a huge reversal will aften a week or so after earnings once people sell off even more. If I had to pinpoint the bottom, I would say maybe 1.30 - 1.50 is the bottom. Then we can potentially see 2.50 - 3.00 in the coming months after. Good for about a 100% flip or more depending on the momentum and covering of the shorts who beat this down.
Quote: ZenKinGPeople will eventually get sick of ordering clothes online that don't fit and start filling up the department stores once again. because millennials love everything online these days and the trajectory does seem to be heading online.
are you aware of how many different businesses have mistakenly thought that they could overcome the online competition, thought it was just a fad and became toast? A s***load. the trend is way, way deeper than just change of habits due to millennials. amazon began its' ascent in 1994 before millennials were even in the game. right now amazon looks totally unstoppable. even if they can be slowed there is no sign that it will be done by brick and mortar. those that are doing well are using amazon's model and picking a niche. i read about a new startup doing very well. i forgot its name. the customer (women) send info on their measurements and then answer a few questions about their clothing preferences. then this business chooses the clothes for the customer based on the answers and ships the clothes direct to their homes. the customers are loving it.
Quote: lilredroosterare you aware of how many different businesses have mistakenly thought that they could overcome the online competition, thought it was just a fad and became toast? A s***load. the trend is way, way deeper than just change of habits due to millennials. amazon began its' ascent in 1994 before millennials were even in the game. right now amazon looks totally unstoppable. even if they can be slowed there is no sign that it will be done by brick and mortar.
There will always be a need for brick & mortal stores. The problem now is there are TOO many retailers & stores, which is very unhealthy because of the convenience & competitive pricing from online stores.
At some point retailers will consolidated, and only the strongest will survive, and retailers with big debts have bigger risk of BK. For example, BBY is doing well now because of the disappearance of many other traditional appliance and tech retailers. Although not relate to retailing, airline industry is another a good example of industry consolidation, and the consolidation in the airline resulted in fewer carriers that give them the monopolistic pricing power.
ASNA is a good SHORT term speculative play, and it can rise or fall big depends on its ability to generate cash flow to reduce its heavy debt load.
Edit to add this:
Consolidation in retails will not give the industry pricing power as in the case of airline industry because there still exist online retailing competition, but it certainly will increase customer traffic/volume that could greatly improve the retailers' financial bottom line.
What are you going to do? Tie up a quarter of your worth? A good rule of thumb is 3 to 5 percent of your portfolio in any one stock.
At some point, you stop working for money and let your money work for you.
Quote: billryanI don't gamble on stocks. I invest.
At some point, you stop working for money and let your money work for you.
XLP is probably the safest investment on the market then. But I don't mind taking a small risk right now and putting some capital on ASNA before I back up the truck on XLP
When one has less than $100K-200K, one can use more aggressive strategies to speed up the early money-making process (akin to overbetting Kelly).Quote: billryanSomeone with a net worth of $50,000 and no certain source of income shouldn't be speculating on junk stocks.
What are you going to do? Tie up a quarter of your worth? A good rule of thumb is 3 to 5 percent of your portfolio in any one stock.
At $200K, 10% annual growth is only $20,000/yr.
For many people the wealth from working a regular job or being an entrepreneur is much greater than $20,000/yr.
Regular savings every year can add more to net worth than investment growth.
However, after accumulating more wealth (or a larger bankroll), diversification is helpful.
At $1M, 10% annual growth is $100,000/yr. Most people can not save $100K/yr after taxes & expenses.
Note: Classic "max 3-5% in one investment" diversification does not work in market downturns where almost everything is correlated & heading south.
In these cases, one might need active insurance bets in the opposite direction.
The 2000 & 2007 market downturns were unlike any in the previous SHORT history of stock markets.
We don't know what will happen in future economic shocks.
...which is why many wealthy people keep an unusually high percentage of wealth in cash or cash-equivalents (compared to college endowment funds).
A lot depends on the psychology of wealthy people (which might have 5-7-10 main types).
Perhaps 1/4-1/3 of wealthy people are mainly "wealth preservation" types, and less concerned with growth of wealth than security.
ASNA + Macy's + XLP + Bitcoin = wealth
Quote: onenickelmiracleFor the longest time the internet had no tax, while maybe the internet should be taxed greater now than real life sales at stores. Ideally, but unlikely.
Macy's and brick and mortar stores are not going anywhere. The retail industry just needs to make some adjustments, that's all. This has all been way overblown. Retail will recover within next year or two. People that know this are buying heavily discount retail stocks at the moment.
A big reason the otherwise-not-an-idiot-investor loses money in the stock market is that the average Joe usually needs the money just as the stock market goes down.
Quote: ZenKinGMacy's and brick and mortar stores are not going anywhere. The retail industry just needs to make some adjustments, that's all. This has all been way overblown. Retail will recover within next year or two. People that know this are buying heavily discount retail stocks at the moment.
Investors just reacted to Macy's warning of its reducing gross margin outlook for rest of the year. Macy at $21.90/share would yield an annualized dividend of 7%, which is pretty good providing that its business outlook will be improved...
Real estate is only worth what you can sell it for, not what you paid for it. Drive by most strip malls and there are empty " anchor stores" everywhere.
As someone who has been buying stocks for 52 years, I almost offered some advice, but then realized that the OP is probably as well versed on the market as he is on advantage play.
Edit for Quote: $1.22. Check history of FTR... BIIIIIIGGGG Loser since 2014.
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Quote: SkepticNote to self: short ASNA.
Won't work, fundamentals and technicals scream buy.
Every time the RSI hits these levels historically over the last 5 years, it shoots up whether its a month or two months etc it goes UP.
Fundamentally, its just a pure bargain.
I do think it will go down a bit more as I have said before due to earnings report, but once that settles, that's when it will take off to +3.00
Dressbarn. Maurices. Justice (Tween Brands). Lane Bryant. Catherines (for the plus sized woman). Ann Taylor. Loft and Lou Grey.
Not the strongest line-up of stores and very little internet presence. It will not survive.
Quote: SkepticASNA is a retailer of "specialty apparel". They'll be lucky to still be in business a year from now.
Dressbarn. Maurices. Justice (Tween Brands). Lane Bryant. Catherines (for the plus sized woman). Ann Taylor. Loft and Lou Grey.
Not the strongest line-up of stores and very little internet presence. It will not survive.
Its still bringing in 1.5 billion a quarter though? Someone's buying and this is during a horrible time in retail. Management will make adjustments such as doing more with ecommerce as you mentioned. I don't even care anyway, I'm in it to make a quick flip after it hits 3.00 - 3.50 even though book value is around 9 bucks, I'll be happy with a 75 - 100% flip
Umm yeah, but with $800 million in costs of goods sold plus another $990 million in operating expenses (among other things) leaves...
... a $32 million loss for the quarter.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498301/000149830117000015/asna10q-q2fy17.htm
Quote: Skeptic"Its still bringing in 1.5 billion a quarter though? "
Umm yeah, but with $800 million in costs of goods sold plus another $990 million in operating expenses for the quarter leaves...
... a $35 million loss for the quarter.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498301/000149830117000015/asna10q-q2fy17.htm
Well 1.5 billion was an estimate. They had 6.9 billion in revenue last year so its more around 1.75 billion. They also will be cutting capex by about 250 million and also closing stores. Analysts and management still expect a positive EPS. They have lots of free cash flow and operating cash flow. They just got to make some adjustments.
Either way I'm going to just try and flip it anyway for hopefully a good gain as I know this will bounce back up once this retail environment negativity scales off a bit. Fundamentally its still worth a lot more than 1.80 a share even with declining sales and a tough retail environment. Book value is over 9 a share. The negativity around the stock is the debt they took to acquire Ann taylor but I already discussed why that won't be a problem. They won't be going bankrupt anytime soon so should still be good for a good flip, but long term it could still rise even higher based off its fundamentals.
I found him erratic at best on his other posts.
It seems to me zk is a all or nothing person. No in between. Either he is your friend or he is your worst enemy.
Asna might have a dead cat bounce due to short covering. Long term prospect is bleak.
If the stock is still around 1.2 at the beginning of July. I might throw in 2-3k to GAMBLE. Don't we all in a Vegas site.
Good luck to him and me and all of us.
Quote: speedycrapZenking screamed about a Useless university education in business. Now he is using what he learned at university trying to make a buck. Or doubling his bucks
I found him erratic at best on his other posts.
It seems to me zk is a all or nothing person. No in between. Either he is your friend or he is your worst enemy.
Asna might have a dead cat bounce due to short covering. Long term prospect is bleak.
If the stock is still around 1.2 at the beginning of July. I might throw in 2-3k to GAMBLE. Don't we all in a Vegas site.
Good luck to him and me and all of us.
ASNA price check anyone? LOL. Listen to the king
Quote: ZenKinGASNA price check anyone? LOL. Listen to the king
You made that post when ASNA was at $2.58. Anyone buying then is already down 20%. Barely holding $2 now. Looks like it'll be below your initial buy recommendation this week.
Let me guess, you miraculously sold at the very top.
FTR after a 1 to 15 reverse split.... $13.81 thats about $0.92 pre-split. A loss of 0.3/1.22. Must be off 70% for the year.
Losers are NEVER undervalued, they're just losers. Until a turnaround happens, like AAPL.
I do see new management team headlines. Must be ready for the Shark Tank.
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