Ultimate X Keno

I first noticed Ultimate X Keno today at the Suncoast and then saw it at VideoPoker.com. I think you need to be a Gold member to play it there. The gist is exactly the same as Ultimate X video poker. I hope that comparison is helpful. At least this game is much easier to analyze, with no skill component.

I started on a Ultimate X Keno page. For now, it just has the pay tables and a rudimentary analysis. The pay tables shows are based on VideoPoker.com. The Suncoast is not as generous, with an average return of 91.45%.

For now, I welcome the other math wizards on the site to do your own analysis. Feel free to challenge me, or better yet, agree with me.

The question for the forum is would you play Ultimate X Keno?

Quote: Wizard

. . . . I think you need to be a Gold member to play it there with an average return of 91.45%.

Okay. Most slot machines screw you royally, this machine screws you a bit less. And you have to have gold status to play at almost ten percent house edge even though you don't need Gold status to place the six or eight at 0.8 percent house edge at a craps table.

I made many improvements to my Ultimate X Keno page. Please have another look.

The next step would seem to me to analyze the expected value of each game state. In other words, how many multipliers do you need to vulture? (shut up Wiz!)

unless I'm missing it... the Suncoast paytable and multiplier table is identical to the VP.com multiplier and paytable.

Quote: rsactuary

unless I'm missing it... the Suncoast paytable and multiplier table is identical to the VP.com multiplier and paytable.

You're right. Copy and paste error, which I just fixed. Multiplier for catching 3 out of 3 in the VP.com multiplier table should be 7. Thank you for the correction.

I'm already working on a vulturing strategy for the pick-3 game and Suncoast rules.

I find that the player should play if the total abandoned multipliers is 7 or more. Keep in mind that what seems like no multiplier is really a multiplier of 1x.

At first this surprised me, because the player needs combined multipliers of 8.779732 to break even the NEXT game. So why play if it's only a total of 7? I figure that's because while the next play is moderately negative EV, it has a chance to win a lot of multipliers the next game. If it doesn't, then walk away. So, it's taking a gamble -- loss the next game for a chance of greater wins after it.

Does this make any sense to the experienced Ultimate X video poker vultures?

Quote: Wizard

You're right. Copy and paste error, which I just fixed. Multiplier for catching 3 out of 3 in the VP.com multiplier table should be 7. Thank you for the correction.

Something still isn't right. Now, the Suncoast multiplier table is better than the VP,com multiplier table and the paytables are indentical. Yet the return for Suncoast is about 4% less than VP.com

Quote: rsactuary

Something still isn't right. Now, the Suncoast multiplier table is better than the VP,com multiplier table and the paytables are indentical. Yet the return for Suncoast is about 4% less than VP.com

Thanks, another copy and paste error. I fixed it. As you can see, the VideoPoker.com has a higher base pay table than the Suncoast.

Quote: Wizard

I find that the player should play if the total abandoned multipliers is 7 or more.

I find this to be the case with the pick-4 game Suncoast rules as well.

I find with the pick-5 game you need 8 in multipliers to be +EV. It's impossible to have a total of seven.