Mega Millions
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27 members have voted
Quote: djatcI can't imagine being bothered by people when they know you have millions
I'm getting bothered by random people when I hit for 2k on video poker
That's the beauty of the 1.6 billion being won in a smaller City that doesn't require the winner to come forward than say a bigger City like Los Angeles. They do give out the name of the winner, however but if you have a common first name and a common last name(Like Patrick Smith) you are still Golden as there are so many Patrick Smith's in the USA alone, it would be hard to figure out just which Patrick Smith won If your name is uncommon like Aziz Ansari, ;) you are royally screwed.
Quote: NathanI can't help but think,"What if the Florida Lottery PURPOSELY made sure no one would win until the 1.6 billion dollar Jackpot? I mean, the longer the wait, the more of a frenzy, right? And even people who don't usually play the Lottery and talk crap about it were playing right alongside Lottery fans. It isn't too far of a stretch to have Lottery Workers make sure no one wins until it is really large.
Oh wait I get it.
You’re impersonating ZenKing as a mega millions player
Quote: unJon
I do think there is an interesting discussion to be had about whether to measure the “foolishness” of a game by HE vs EV.
I'll always argue total expected loss, if not expected loss per hour.
Could be, we don't know for sure. Maybe there is a conspiracy for real, the winning ticket was sold in a state that hides the identity. The lotto is a program not a ball drawing, a billion and a half is enough for people to be bad. We live amongst Liars and thieves who knows.Quote: NathanI can't help but think,"What if the Florida Lottery PURPOSELY made sure no one would win until the 1.6 billion dollar Jackpot? I mean, the longer the wait, the more of a frenzy, right? And even people who don't usually play the Lottery and talk crap about it were playing right alongside Lottery fans. It isn't too far of a stretch to have Lottery Workers make sure no one wins until it is really large.
still waiting for that transparent government Obama said we were going to get. The flipside of paranoid is naive. I do not say anything afoul happened, I say the possibility for something afoul could have possibly happened. I do believe in the saying the appearance of impropriety is impropriety.Quote: michael99000Oh wait I get it.
You’re impersonating ZenKing as a mega millions player
Quote: 100xOddsand what if the person isn't buying the tix primarily for financial gain but rather for social value?
3 or 4days talking with friends/co-workers about the big jackpot.
Buying tickets for popularity points just isn't in my nature. Like me or hate me for who I am. However, everyone has to live his own life. All I can do is explain what a terrible bet the lottery is and watch no horses drinking the water.
Quote: WizardThis post will address some questions and challenges put to me since my last one.
Here is my strategy to parlay $3 into $1.6 million. The table shows the game, bet, probability of winning each bet, and your balance after the bet. These are realistic rules, which can be found at the top-end Vegas casinos. You start with $3 and make the first bet in the following table. Your balance, if you win, is in the right column.
Game Type of Bet Prob. Win Balance Double-zero roulette Single number 0.026316 $108 Single-zero roulette Single number 0.027027 $3,888 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $7,582 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $14,784 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $28,829 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $56,217 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $109,622 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $213,764 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $416,839 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $812,836 Baccarat Banker 0.506825 $1,585,031
The bottom right cell shows that after two winning single-number bets in roulette and nine on the Banker in baccarat, you'll have almost $1.6 million.
If you take the product of all those probabilities, you have 1 in 637,183. In other words, the expected return of this whole thing is (1583031/3)*(1/637183) = 82.92%.
As we know, the expected return in the lottery is about 50%.
To make a hypothetical lottery game that paid $1,585,031 on a $3 bet, to hold a house edge of 50%, the probability of winning would have to be 1 in 1,056,687.
Thus, your chances of turning $3 into $1.6 million are much better in the casino than the lotto.
This reminds me of the St. Petersburg paradox.
While most (all?) state lotteries have gone to computer programs to select the numbers, I'm pretty sure the big boys (Powerball & Mega Millions) still do a live televised drawing with ping-pong balls in a hopper.Quote: onenickelmiracleThe lotto is a program not a ball drawing
ETA: Hacking/cheating the computerized state lottery "drawings" has already been documented. No conspiracy theory necessary!
Quote: JoemanWhile most (all?) state lotteries have gone to computer programs to select the numbers, I'm pretty sure the big boys (Powerball & Mega Millions) still do a live televised drawing with ping-pong balls in a hopper.
ETA: Hacking/cheating the computerized state lottery "drawings" has already been documented. No conspiracy theory necessary!
Here's the video of the $1.6B draw:
https://www.wral.com/entertainment/lottery/video/6938100/
Quote: lildevilLucyWhoever won the lottery, he touched me inappropriately ten years ago
Reminds me of a poster on the guy who won 450 million. Something like,"Let's hope he never had sex with a girl in high school a few years ago(The guy was like 20) because now she can claim he raped her in high school a few years ago and sue the pants off of him. Thank God I'm still a virgin and won't be sued for alleged rape if I win the Lottery any time soon."
Quote: lildevilLucyWhoever won the lottery, he touched me inappropriately ten years ago
Now that's funny. Thanks for that.
Quote: NathanReminds me of a poster on the guy who won 450 million. Something like,"Let's hope he never had sex with a girl in high school a few years ago(The guy was like 20) because now she can claim he raped her in high school a few years ago and sue the pants off of him. Thank God I'm still a virgin and won't be sued for alleged rape if I win the Lottery any time soon."
Stay gold, Pony Boy.
Quote: michael99000Oh wait I get it.
You’re impersonating ZenKing as a mega millions player
Were the ping pong balls made in China?
Well, there you go.
Quote: AyecarumbaWere the ping pong balls made in China?
Well, there you go.
Wait a minute...
The Chinese invented the lottery....!
ZK was right all along....
That's pretty rare... winning the lottery jackpot.Quote: NathanReminds me of a poster on the guy who won 450 million. Something like,"Let's hope he never had sex with a girl in high school a few years ago(The guy was like 20) because now she can claim he raped her in high school a few years ago and sue the pants off of him. Thank God I'm still a virgin and won't be sued for alleged rape if I win the Lottery any time soon."
Quote: NathanYou really have no excuse to be blowing 1.6(650 million in cash after taxes) since the majority of USA doesn't know you won so most people aren't begging you for money. You should be investing in solid long time companies and saving that money
I disagree. If I had $650 million I would be blowing $640 million of it. Invest $10 million just in case I survive the spending of 640. My life expectancy is probably less than 15 years, why save it.
Quote: DRichI disagree. If I had $650 million I would be blowing $640 million of it. Invest $10 million just in case I survive the spending of 640. My life expectancy is probably less than 15 years, why save it.
Because in 16 years, they might discover a pill that will let you live for another twenty years.
Quote: DRichI disagree. If I had $650 million I would be blowing $640 million of it. Invest $10 million just in case I survive the spending of 640. My life expectancy is probably less than 15 years, why save it.
Lets say you have a really stupid advisor who can only get you 5% annual return on your $650 million. That means that in order to spend just the income from the money, you must spend $90,000 a day. I'm reasonably sure most people can manage to spend less than that.
Quote: billryanLets say you have a really stupid advisor who can only get you 5% annual return on your $650 million. That means that in order to spend just the income from the money, you must spend $90,000 a day. I'm reasonably sure most people can manage to spend less than that.
Yes, but if I allow myself to spend $90,000 a day my wife will also expect to get to spend $90,000 a day. Before you know it I will be broke. If I spend $640 million right away she will then have to learn to budget her Amazon spending. I am being selfless and doing it for her own good.
Quote: DRichI disagree. If I had $650 million I would be blowing $640 million of it. Invest $10 million just in case I survive the spending of 640. My life expectancy is probably less than 15 years, why save it.
Save it so that at least three generations after you are still living off of it!
Quote: NathanSave it so that at least three generations after you are still living off of it!
Why would you curse your descendants to be born rich? Don't you know its harder for a rich man to inherit the kingdom than it is to pass a camel through the eye of a needle?
Quote: billryanWhy would you curse your descendants to be born rich? Don't you know its harder for a rich man to inherit the kingdom than it is to pass a camel through the eye of a needle?
I would rather be born rich than be born poor. Face it, life is much sweeter when you are rich and not poor.
Quote: NathanI would rather be born rich than be born poor. Face it, life is much sweeter when you are rich and not poor.
I was born poor and I wouldn’t trade it. Life is sweeter when you work for it.
Quote: CrystalMathI was born poor and I wouldn’t trade it. Life is sweeter when you work for it.
But you get the free ride by being born to a family whose great Ancestor made sure that at least 3 generations would be well taken care of all of their lives when he won 650 million in cash 60 years ago. :)
I cant help thinking in this day and age, they should be able to id exactly when the ticket was bought. Most places have video. It should be easy to id the winner.
define "easy"Quote: billryanI cant help thinking in this day and age, they should be able to id exactly when the ticket was bought. Most places have video. It should be easy to id the winner.
I am certain that after the 180 days goes by and no one comes forward with the winning ticket
the states will be happy. I would pay (to a fund) to find out if the ticket buyer could be identified
if no one claims the jackpot.
what would the excuse be?
"my dog ate the ticket"
"left ticket in pocket and washed the pants"
"left the ticket in glove box and sold the car. threw out all the junk in the glove box"
Quote: 7crapsdefine "easy"Quote: billryanI cant help thinking in this day and age, they should be able to id exactly when the ticket was bought. Most places have video. It should be easy to id the winner.
I am certain that after the 180 days goes by and no one comes forward with the winning ticket
the states will be happy. I would pay (to a fund) to find out if the ticket buyer could be identified
if no one claims the jackpot.
what would the excuse be?
"my dog ate the ticket"
"left ticket in pocket and washed the pants"
"left the ticket in glove box and sold the car. threw out all the junk in the glove box"
I’d been wondering if there was any financial reason for the winner to wait until the new year to claim it. Probably not though. Other than that I can’t see any reason to wait this long. If the winner knows they won , the ticket is most likely in a safety deposit box. But three months is plenty of time to get things organized
If the ticket is unclaimed after six months, the money is distributed back to the states. Each state gets to decide what to do with their unclaimed prize funds.
You might be in a legal dispute you want settled first. You might want to clean up your act before all the publicity.
Let's face it, the winners life as he knew it is over. In that circumstance, I might want to hold off for awhile.
Hopefully, it's a strategy.
Quote: billryanWhat happens if it unclaimed? Does it go back into the game or does the State keep it? I wonder if it affects the store? They get a nice reward for selling a winning ticket like that.
I cant help thinking in this day and age, they should be able to id exactly when the ticket was bought. Most places have video. It should be easy to id the winner.
The locals in SC absolutely know who has that ticket. For whatever reason, they're not telling.
I disagree about it not being claimed. It takes time to set up trusts, figure out what you're doing, who you want to cut in or protect against. Also maybe they did get counsel that 2019 would be a better tax year.
I agree with Bill & Babs above -- lotsa reasons why you might wait to cash the ticket. Gotta get those ducks aligned! Don't they have til mid-April before it expires? Too soon to hit the proverbial panic button.Quote: AyecarumbaIf it hasn't been claimed by now, I don't think it will be. That's too much money to not take immediate action on. You are losing thousands of dollars every day by not drawing interest on it.
This was years ago, before PB and MM, but for a (short) time, the Florida Lottery decided to seed their state Lotto jackpot with funds from unclaimed & expired winning tickets. IIRC, each jackpot (which, at the time, was usually $3-5M for the drawing after it was hit) was guaranteed to be at least $10M, with the unclaimed prizes making up the difference. This didn't last for long, and I haven't heard about it since.Quote:If the ticket is unclaimed after six months, the money is distributed back to the states. Each state gets to decide what to do with their unclaimed prize funds.
Quote: DRichHow long does it take to legally change my name so my wife and friends won't know that I hit it?
Won't you still have to claim under your original name that you bought the ticket from? For example, if your name is Leonardo DiCaprio, ;) and you bought it under Leonardo DiCaprio, and then decide to change it to Jack Dawson, ;) you would still have to claim it under Leonardo DiCaprio IINM(If I'm not mistaken)
Quote: NathanWon't you still have to claim under your original name that you bought the ticket from? For example, if your name is Leonardo DiCaprio, ;) and you bought it under Leonardo DiCaprio, and then decide to change it to Jack Dawson, ;) you would still have to claim it under Leonardo DiCaprio IINM(If I'm not mistaken)
South Carolina is not community property, I don't think. (Could be wrong). I was married there. Silly me, took a promotion to Florida, got divorced under their laws. Anyway, that would be the only impediment to any one person's rights to that money, if so. It's not like you have to sign your name when you buy it. It's a bearer instrument, payable on demand, until it's signed. No reason they couldn't change their name.
Ounce for ounce, that ticket would have to be about the most valuable thing in the world today. Maybe there's a prototype next-gen micro chip worth more somewhere.
Quote: DRichHow long does it take to legally change my name so my wife and friends won't know that I hit it?
Probably not a good idea... especially if you get caught.
excerpt:
http://articles.latimes.com/1999/nov/17/news/mn-34537
Quote:During his 25 years of marriage, Thomas Rossi never saw a marriage counselor, never strayed and never doubted a relationship so close that he shared an electric toothbrush with his wife, he said.
Then Denise Rossi shocked him by demanding a divorce. And she wanted it in a hurry.
Now he knows why: On Dec. 28, 1996--just 11 days before she filed for divorce--Denise Rossi won $1.3 million in the California Lottery.
She told no one in her divorce case, and Monday her secret caught up with her. A Los Angeles family court judge ruled that she had violated state asset disclosure laws and awarded her lottery winnings to her ex-husband. Every penny.
Quote: beachbumbabsThe locals in SC absolutely know who has that ticket. For whatever reason, they're not telling.
I disagree about it not being claimed. It takes time to set up trusts, figure out what you're doing, who you want to cut in or protect against. Also maybe they did get counsel that 2019 would be a better tax year.
The only reason for waiting in my mind would be that the ticket was bought by a pool, and now they are having a struggle to decide how to divvy it up, and what to do about Jeb, who usually puts in every time, but missed that round since he was on vacation.
If the winner got advice that 2019 would be a better tax year, they should sue for negligence. By not cashing in, they missed the opportunity to by Apple at a historic low. They could have made 14% in one day.
The winner also risks theft, destruction, or some other loss of the winning ticket. They could be gravely injured in a car accident, or slip and fall down some stairs. Why take the chance?
It’s as if they have been going to the bank every day, withdrawing 90k and mailing it to the Lottery. The States are happy to draw interest on the float, with no compensation to the winner(s).
Quote: HullabalooProbably not a good idea... especially if you get caught.
I would say it is only a bad idea if you get caught.
Quote: HullabalooProbably not a good idea... especially if you get caught.
excerpt:
http://articles.latimes.com/1999/nov/17/news/mn-34537
Wow! She tried to make sure that she wouldn't have to share her Lottery winnings with her husband so she pulled that stunt and now he gets all of her Lottery Winnings. She is a prime example of a Smart Idiot. Hope she enjoys throwing away 25 years of a GOOD marriage for money she doesn't even get a penny of. {<:(
Quote: wizard
I asked this before, but if anyone has suggestions of financial instruments that accept in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars with clearly defined rules, I'm all ears.
Look no farther than CNBC. The stock market has been a game for big players for over a hundred years and very often the player's expectation is positive. The simile was suggested in the book Wall Street The Other Las Vegas by Nicholas Darvas. There are 7,000 stocks traded on American exchanges but I look at only the 2,000 most actively traded ones. I think I could place $100 Billion within three days.
Edward O. Thorp, the same one who discovered advantage play in blackjack, became a hedge fund manager and realized a return of 20% a year using a strategy involving arbitrage. He describes this in his new book A Man For All Markets. With your mathematical skills I think you could do quite well with a little instruction and I would be willing to provide it.
I play the stock market with $100,000 chips and get good executions with market orders. I could play with $1,000,000 chips if I were willing to wait fifteen minutes for a fill. There are also block trading desks that large mutual funds use. Because of the size of my account I pay only $2 per trade commission regardless of the size of the trade.
There is a technique called short selling that isn't used by ordinary investors, but can be profitable when the market goes down. Jesse Livermore made $100 Million in the crash of October 1929 when other traders were losing their shirts. One advantage of stocks sold short is that you don't have to pay for them. All you need is margin money, which can be kept earning interest.
For smaller players there are stock options and futures contracts. These are highly leveraged investments offering large gains (or losses) with a small bet, but they are not so attractive for high rollers because of large commissions.
I have read all of the books on investments but fail to see how Warren Buffett could have made all of his money following his own advice, so all I can learn from Warren Buffett is that I can learn nothing from Warren Buffett.
The Mega Millions jackpot is at $830 million at the time, of this writing. The next drawing is at 11PM EST today.
Using my Lottery Ticket Sales Calculator, I predict 0.66 winners and a probability of 48.06% of at least one winner.
I hope there isn't a winner as it will mean more suckers buying tickets for the next drawing, which means more revenue for the government.
Quote: WizardI hope there isn't a winner as it will mean more suckers buying tickets for the next drawing, which means more revenue for the government.
You are wrong on both counts.
(1) Spending $2 on a ticket is not being a "sucker":
(a) If you get ≥$2 worth of enjoyment out of it. When you spend money on movies, bowling, or shows you don't get any of that money back, but nobody calls it being a "sucker".
(b) Because the total loss in other games is even more, which I've told you many times, but which you always ignore. According to the video below, in one state lottery players lost an average of $106/year, while slots/VP players lost $2564.
Incidentally, this means you've wrongly insulted every person on this forum who buys a lottery ticket.
(2) Lotteries don't generate extra money for the government, especially for education. Once a state passes a lottery, they reduce taxes in other areas so their education budget isn't any higher than it was pre-lottery.
Quote: MichaelBluejayYou are wrong on both counts.
(1) Spending $2 on a ticket is not being a "sucker":
(a) If you get ≥$2 worth of enjoyment out of it. When you spend money on movies, bowling, or shows you don't get any of that money back, but nobody calls it being a "sucker".
When I go to the movies or bowling, I am paying for a service. Nobody calls those who do suckers, because the service costs money to provide. However, if someone gets >=$2 worth of fun playing the lottery, then good for them. However, I've asked many people why they buy lottery tickets and they never say it's for the fun, but for the money, as if it is an educated risk.
Quote:(b) Because the total loss in other games is even more, which I've told you many times, but which you always ignore. According to the video below, in one state lottery players lost an average of $106/year, while slots/VP players lost $2564.
I don't condone playing slots recreationally either. However, at least machine players get much more time playing than lottery players.
Quote:Incidentally, this means you've wrongly insulted every person on this forum who buys a lottery ticket.
Per forum rules, one can make insulting generalizations as long as they don't single out particular people. However, if you wish to press charges, please do with with another moderator and I will accept their ruling
Quote:(2) Lotteries don't generate extra money for the government, especially for education. Once a state passes a lottery, they reduce taxes in other areas so their education budget isn't any higher than it was pre-lottery.]
All other things being equal, lotteries bring in additional revenue. If lotteries mean taxes are reduced in other areas, which I don't dispute, then good for me and the others who don't play.
By the way, you didn't format your YouTube clip correctly. With your permission, I will fix your post.
A bit of interesting tax trivia...for UK citizens, lottery winnings, if won in the UK or in a country with which the UK has a tax treaty (the US is one), are tax free income.Quote: WizardSorry to wake up a sleeping thread, although I'm really not sorry.
The Mega Millions jackpot is at $830 million at the time, of this writing. The next drawing is at 11PM EST today.
Using my Lottery Ticket Sales Calculator, I predict 0.66 winners and a probability of 48.06% of at least one winner.
I hope there isn't a winner as it will mean more suckers buying tickets for the next drawing, which means more revenue for the government.
link to original post
This would seem to imply that for a UK citizen, MegaMillions at this level would be a fair bet.
Quote: Wizard
When I go to the movies or bowling, I am paying for a service. Nobody calls those who do suckers, because the service costs money to provide. However, if someone gets >=$2 worth of fun playing the lottery, then good for them. However, I've asked many people why they buy lottery tickets and they never say it's for the fun, but for the money, as if it is an educated risk.
I bought a $2 ticket and I definitely get $2 worth of entertainment from it just "planning" on how I will spend it.
Quote: UP84This would seem to imply that for a UK citizen, MegaMillions at this level would be a fair bet.
link to original post
I'm not a tax expert, but I would interpret that to mean you would still have to pay US taxes, but not get hit again in the UK.
Quote: WizardQuote: MichaelBluejay
(2) Lotteries don't generate extra money for the government, especially for education. Once a state passes a lottery, they reduce taxes in other areas so their education budget isn't any higher than it was pre-lottery.]
All other things being equal, lotteries bring in additional revenue. If lotteries mean taxes are reduced in other areas, which I don't dispute, then good for me and the others who don't play.
link to original post
I don't think that's what he meant by "reduce taxes in other areas." I think he meant to say that they reduce tax spending in other areas.
Case in point: when California started its lottery in 1984 or so, it was stressed that about 1/3 of the revenues would go to education. However, the money in the state budget that went to education in previous years was reduced by about the same amount; for all intents and purposes, the lottery money went into the state's general fund.
