Mega Millions
Poll
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27 members have voted
Quote: onenickelmiracleI see no reason to hate people buying lotto tickets. Lets not forget, the odds of the lottery are bad, but so are the odds for most of the people buying tickets. They don't have the talent, skills, and intelligence most of you have, so maybe they are smart knowing their lives are hopeless anyways, so they bet.
I’ve said this before, but I think it’s laughable that the same people here that poop on the lottery LOVE high stakes BJ trip reports and other similar things.
A two dollar lottery ticket is a 'fling' ... a trivial sum thrown to the wind. It doesn't have to be sensible.
Hop on a plane to Vegas and your gambling should at least start out being done sensibly.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI see no reason to hate people buying lotto tickets. Lets not forget, the odds of the lottery are bad, but so are the odds for most of the people buying tickets. They don't have the talent, skills, and intelligence most of you have, so maybe they are smart knowing their lives are hopeless anyways, so they bet.
Yeah, you sold me on it, ONM. I have a ticket for my birthday. I know it's going to hit. Yay me!
Anybody in a state that doesn't sell the megamillion want a piece? Must come in before the drawing tomorrow night.
Quote: 100xOddsthis Mathematician says take the annuity payments instead of lump sum because minimize your taxes?!?!
https://lifehacker.com/the-best-time-to-play-the-powerball-lottery-according-1484889171
even if you take the annuity on a $380M jackpot (which is what he's writing about), wont that still max you out at the top tax bracket?
The idea of taking the annuity to minimize tax liability is that the lotto (being an extension of the government) can invest the lump sum to achieve the annuity and pay 0 taxes on invested gains. Of course, once you get the income, you have to pay taxes on it. The idea is that the annuity is larger because the lotto doesn't pay taxes on capital gains.
The idea of taking the lump sum is that you can beat the lotto's ultra-conservative investment strategy even considering capital gains taxes. Also you don't have to wait 30 years to get your full payout.
I would take the cash and trust myself to beat the very conservative investments the lotto would use to grow the lump sum into the larger annuity.
Just one, so are you saying this lottery sucks ?Quote: WizardOkay, here is the bottom line on the Mega Millions.
Any questions?
ps: I'm asking for a friend.
Quote: NathanPlaying $500 in Blackjack game has much more chance of losing money than $50 in the Lottery.
If I was the board owner I'd ban you for this statement alone. Zuga refused my offer of 2.7 million by the way....
Quote: SOOPOOIf I was the board owner I'd ban you for this statement alone. Zuga refused my offer of 2.7 million by the way....
Let me explain. I was simply implying that losing $500 in Blackjack is worse than losing only $50 in Lottery.
The only reason I buy a ticket every now and then: the chance to win >$100,000,000 in a night. (I prob spend ~$20/year on MagaMillions - maybe less)
I know I could sit down, play 10 hands of $10 blackjack and win $100 (or more). That's great, and I would be happy. I could lose 10 hands in a row and be out $100. That would suck.
I could spend $3 on two MegaMillions tickets, and I'll be out $3. Meh. But....
Irrational? Yes. A waste of $3. Yes. But...
#taxationistheft
Quote: 100xOddseven if you take the annuity on a $380M jackpot (which is what he's writing about), wont that still max you out at the top tax bracket?
I agree. To keep things simple, I ignored that effect. It isn't like people who buy lottery tickets think about such things.
I think what would make me take the lump sum in lieu of an annuity is that who knows if the state will be able to pay in 30 years? We've already seen this in Illinois a few years ago where they didn't pay the jackpot winners. I think this type of thing will become more prevalent in the future.Quote: sodawaterQuote: 100xOddsthis Mathematician says take the annuity payments instead of lump sum because minimize your taxes?!?!
https://lifehacker.com/the-best-time-to-play-the-powerball-lottery-according-1484889171
even if you take the annuity on a $380M jackpot (which is what he's writing about), wont that still max you out at the top tax bracket?
The idea of taking the annuity to minimize tax liability is that the lotto (being an extension of the government) can invest the lump sum to achieve the annuity and pay 0 taxes on invested gains. Of course, once you get the income, you have to pay taxes on it. The idea is that the annuity is larger because the lotto doesn't pay taxes on capital gains.
The idea of taking the lump sum is that you can beat the lotto's ultra-conservative investment strategy even considering capital gains taxes. Also you don't have to wait 30 years to get your full payout.
I would take the cash and trust myself to beat the very conservative investments the lotto would use to grow the lump sum into the larger annuity.
Besides, who knows what the tax brackets will look like in 10, 20, or 30 years? It could be that, although unlikely, taking the annuity would carry a larger tax liability than taking the lump sum.
BTW, Wikipedia says the annuity is graduated, paying 5% more each year. If my math is right, that means your check on year 30 will be about 4x more than your year 1 payout.
Quote: JoemanBTW, Wikipedia says the annuity is graduated, paying 5% more each year. If my math is right, that means your check on year 30 will be about 4x more than your year 1 payout.
That's true. 4.12x to be more specific. The first check will be for only 1.5% of the jackpot amount.
Not that anyone asked, but the break-even interest rate, ignoring taxes and other factors, is 3.404%.
Quote: Nathan970 MILLION as of current time! WOW! I might even buy a ticket and I HATE Mega Millions! ;) :/
You only hate it because you haven't figured out the strategy yet. Once you figure it out, you will love winning hundreds of millions of dollars regularly.
Quote: DRichYou only hate it because you haven't figured out the strategy yet. Once you figure it out, you will love winning hundreds of millions of dollars regularly.
LMAO! :D
Quote: Wizard
Not that anyone asked, but the break-even interest rate, ignoring taxes and other factors, is 3.404%.
In other words, if the interest rate is above 3.404%, take the lump sum? Of course, today's interest rate (Fed): 2.25%
Also, these analysis forget to take into account the odds I'll be above ground in 30 years.
Quote: Nathan970 MILLION as of current time! WOW! I might even buy a ticket and I HATE Mega Millions! ;) :/
The secret strategy is pick your own numbers not let the computer do it. Since they want the jackpot to grow they are unlikely to give out the winning numbers.
Quote: Nathan970 MILLION as of current time! WOW! I might even buy a ticket and I HATE Mega Millions! ;) :/
The wining numbers
are
4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42
It worked for Hurley, it may work for you
Quote: terapinedThe wining numbers
are
4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42
It worked for Hurley, it may work for you
They may hit. And it’s a great way to insure a jackpot split of more than 10 ways.
Quote: unJonThey may hit. And it’s a great way to insure a jackpot split of more than 10 ways.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1344539/How-26-000-fans-Lost-actually-WON-copying-lottery-numbers-used-TV-series-cash-Mega-Millions-draw.html
Quote: IndyJeffreyIn other words, if the interest rate is above 3.404%, take the lump sum?
That's right.
Quote: TigerWuI need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?
Need more info on your wife.
Probably more fun than what's his name's mother.Quote: FinsRuleNeed more info on your wife.
Quote: TigerWuI need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?
Hmm, the classic “bird in the hand or two in the bush” dilemma...
Quote: TigerWuI need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?
You are a lucky man. My wife's wine costs four lottery tickets.
Quote: TigerWuI need to make plans for tonight, so what will give me the most bang for my buck: spending the $2 on a Mega Millions ticket, or a cheap bottle of wine for my wife?
Maybe give your wife the lottery ticket. When I'm out of state and the jackpot is large, Mrs. Wizard makes me buy some tickets. I must say, I am very ashamed of myself making the purchase. I'm sure there are other math wizards in the store shaking their heads and feeling sorry for me.
Quote: beachbumbabsYeah, you sold me on it, ONM. I have a ticket for my birthday. I know it's going to hit. Yay me!
Anybody in a state that doesn't sell the megamillion want a piece? Must come in before the drawing tomorrow night.
Tick tock. Offer expires at 6pm Vegas time tonight.
I can dream for a few hours; then my dreams will come crashing down.
Sort of. But there are many interest rates so you should probably look at the whole yield curve and match duration of payments through mixing short, medium and long term treasuries, etc.Quote: WizardThat's right.
Wow.Quote: terapinedhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1344539/How-26-000-fans-Lost-actually-WON-copying-lottery-numbers-used-TV-series-cash-Mega-Millions-draw.html
Though I have a very strong feeling that they will come up sometime in the next 300 million drawings.
Quote: gamerfreakI didn’t win.
No one did. 1.6 bil
Here is a tax calculator for you so you can start spending your money:
https://www.usamega.com/mega-millions-jackpot.asp
Oh, wait...I am going to win!
Quote: gamerfreakI didn’t win.
To everyone who lost -- I told you so.
Quote: WizardTo everyone who lost -- I told you so.
Thank you!
Here's hoping you need to go out of town this week and buy your wife tickets
I can hear the whispers...
...that guy...that one...over there...he's the math genius know as the Wizard of Odds...he always talks about not buying lotto tickets, but there he is...
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
Quote: WizardTo everyone who lost -- I told you so.
I hit 3 numbers last drawing, and 3 numbers this drawing, so I'm ahead $8.
Quote: scolistSo if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
I'd put it with my investment guy, whose eyes would be bugging out of his head.
Quote: scolistSo if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
I think the best process has been found to be setting up a trust account to handle the assets with a financial manager. They have accountability that extends above the FDIC threshold, because they handle assets like retirement accounts and portfolios that routinely exceed that.
But I don't know much about that for obvious reasons...lol. perhaps Paradigm could give some insight. He does that sort of thing.
Quote: WizardTo everyone who lost -- I told you so.
Lucky me... I decided to go with the bottle of wine.
Quote: unJonCan’t find with a quick google the fraction of ticket sales that adds to jackpot. Saw that overall 60% of Mega Millions revenue returned to players. At a guess 50% in jackpot and 10% in other prizes? Not sure if that’s anywhere near accurate. But assuming so, $600m bump in jackpot would mean $1.2b in expected ticket sales. Next unknown is how many spend the extra dollar for multiplier. Let’s call it 16.7% with jackpot so high as I think most new players don’t do that (and makes math easy)? And just the jackpot looks like a small option so we can ignore it. So that would be 500 million in numbers picked.
It seems to be less than that, at least on this jackpot, who play the extra $1 for the multiplier. 11-12%. (Megaplier winners is a subset of total winners in the chart.) * is for California winners, which are parimutuel there, but fixed amounts the other 43 states.
Quote: scolistSo if you were to take the lump payment after taxes, where do you put that kind of money for safe keeping?
Last I knew the FDIC was set at 250k.
Amazon gift cards.
I show that for every dollar spent on tickets, 60.2 cents gets added to the jackpot. However, don't forget the annuity. They only pay out about 56.5% of the jackpot whether or not the player chooses the lump sum. So, about 34.37% of money bet gets paid out to jackpot winners, before deducting for taxes. Thus, the overall return is about 12.35% + 34.37% = 46.72%.
