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unJon
unJon
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May 9th, 2021 at 7:51:47 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Never mind that - who can forget Willie Shoemaker...at the 1957 Kentucky Derby, no less?



Speaking of the Derby, Medina Spirit tested positive for excess betamethasone. Further tests still need to be done before the horse can be disqualified. In case anybody wonders if bets on the second-place horse would be paid off, I assume the same rules apply now as in 1969, when Dancer's Image was DQed after the fact; since the race was declared official, win bets on the horse originally declared as second are not paid.



If this holds up, Baffert should be banned for life.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
billryan
billryan
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May 9th, 2021 at 5:15:06 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Never mind that - who can forget Willie Shoemaker...at the 1957 Kentucky Derby, no less?



Speaking of the Derby, Medina Spirit tested positive for excess betamethasone. Further tests still need to be done before the horse can be disqualified. In case anybody wonders if bets on the second-place horse would be paid off, I assume the same rules apply now as in 1969, when Dancer's Image was DQed after the fact; since the race was declared official, win bets on the horse originally declared as second are not paid.



If this holds up, Baffert should be banned for life.



Ban him retroactively. Strip him and his horses of their wins. How many of his drugged-up horses sold for inflated stud prices and are producing mediocre offspring that need performance enhancers to compete.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 10th, 2021 at 1:46:02 AM permalink
I'm still confused about what trainers even do with horses after all these years especially when what they're supposed to do sounds like the work of veternarians.
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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 10th, 2021 at 1:59:57 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I'm still confused about what trainers even do with horses after all these years especially when what they're supposed to do sounds like the work of veternarians.




I'm assuming you're only referring to the drug issue
obviously trainers have a great amount of work to do with the horse that doesn't involve drugs

vets are employed by trainers and are under their thumbs

and they don't have the scruples that most Doctors who deal with humans have






the internal policies and traditions of racing specify that the Trainer has total responsibility for the condition of the horse

if there is a problem he cannot blame someone else


*
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 10, 2021
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 11th, 2021 at 2:23:10 PM permalink
Are profit lines really real??? Sounds too good to be true. From what I see, it would seem like the tracks are handing you money if you get twice the true odds on a horse. I can see how maybe they're unreliable if horses are scratched, but I'm also not sure if they're constantly changing based on the current entries. I'm currently seeing 45/1 on a horse showing PL 12/1, 40 vs 18/1, 23 vs 9/1, and 11 vs 7/1. Who wouldn't bet these horses if they're showing the true odds?

2 horses 50 to 1 with PL odds 12 and 18 to 1 and neither looked like they had had a chance. Otherwise if this was real, you would kill it betting these horses.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 11, 2021
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lilredrooster
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
May 11th, 2021 at 3:10:05 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Are profit lines really real??? Sounds too good to be true.




no, they're not real - in fact they're a joke - a sales tactic - making it look like they're giving you something great

nobody can know for sure the true odds on a horse - it's all speculation - the best estimate on the odds comes from the final tote odds - the aggregate judgement of the bettors themselves

I've looked at this stuff and it looked way out of whack - like it was done by a child - the best policy is to completely ignore it


there are 2 great signals IMHO you can get from the tote itself:


1. a favorite made cold by the bettors - i.e. morning line 7/5 and going off at 5/2 - he will lose, I believe, more often than the odds indicate

2. an extreme bet down - i.e. - 8/1 on the morning line bet down to 7/5 - this is insider money that brought the odds on this horse down


bet downs on maiden specials for first time starters are also excellent clues - if a horse is even money who has never even run before - somebody knows something






and these clues are best at the very big tracks - not where the local yokels bet out in the woods somewhere with $3,200 in the win pool




*
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 11th, 2021 at 3:50:37 PM permalink
If they're bogus, they're bogus. The only way to know for sure is to keep track of them against the results. You have to imagine most people aren't seeing them when the races are going on though. Of course the odds can change drastically even if you made a bet right before the start. If just a few bet $300, the odds could be wrecked.

Quote:

What do the "Profit Line" odds under the red arrow represent?
Published 01/18/2013|Updated 01/09/2019
What do the "Profit Line" odds represent?
Profit Line odds represent each horse's estimated probability of winning based on a rigorous computer study encompassing thousands of races. Profit Line odds incorporate numerous handicapping factors (speed, class, pace, form, weight, distance, surface, trainer, jockey, pedigree, recency, etc.). Profit Line odds are provided for all North American thoroughbred races (not available for harness and foreign races). There are countless ways to use Profit Line to help you make winning bets.

The horse with the lowest Profit Line odds is deemed to be the most likely winner according to Profit Line.



Look for Profit Line "overlays" (noted in GREEN). Whenever the current odds of a horse is greater than (or equal to) the Profit Line odds, the Profit Line odds are displayed in GREEN. Profit Line deems these "overlays" because the current odds are greater than (or equal to) to the horse's estimated fair chances of winning which means that you will get a higher return on your wager based on live odds than the Profit Line program predicted based on the handicapping factors evaluated.

If those words are untrue, sounds a little serious.
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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 2nd, 2021 at 1:38:20 PM permalink
........................


the doggy liked the #4 horse - the 4 broke well and got the lead and then when the 4 started to fade in the stretch the doggy started saying the race was rigged



"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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July 18th, 2021 at 2:15:47 AM permalink
....................


star jock Paco Lopez took a terrible spill in a big race - the Haskell
it's hard to watch this
anyway he's okay - - I've bet on lots of Paco's mounts and I'm very glad he's okay
Secretariat's jock was paralyzed from a spill after starring on Big Red

.





.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 12th, 2021 at 2:18:30 AM permalink
_________


more bad news for Baffert - who some call "Bad Test Bob"

Churchill Downs warned owners that if they used him as a trainer their horses may not be eligible for the Derby

and NYRA made another move to try and suspend him

Baffert will no doubt exhaust every possible legal appeal and angle
the final word has not yet been written
.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2021-09-10/churchill-downs-bob-baffert-horses-points-policy


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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