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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 7th, 2021 at 5:19:39 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

. Help me out here. Iím sitting with my computer (cell phone!) at Belmont. It says 1-2-3-4-5-6 should be 1000-1, but is presently paying 3,000-1. So I bet it. How does the NYRA stop me from walking up to a windows and placing the bet?




first of all - let me qualify myself - I'm not an expert on this stuff

having said that - first, you were giving me an impossible hypothetical - because neither Belmont or any other tracks post odds estimates for the Pick 6 wager

people making these types of bets make estimates of the payoffs based on the win odds - and they possibly also use the exacta probables as a base from which to calculate

their estimates can sometimes be way off - but for the pros that's okay - because sometimes it will pay less than they estimated but sometimes it will pay more - not knowing exactly doesn't really hurt them - again, because they're making thousands and thousands of bets in combinations

next - when they say computer wagering they don't mean Joe Blow making a wager from his desktop or cell

they are talking about a gigantic number of combinations of bets, and huge money coming from one source
or possibly more than one - the key thing is the gigantic number of combinations and amount of money all coming from a small number of sources

and they are coming in lightning fast because that is what CAW (computer assisted wagering) is all about

that is how they know that it is syndicate betting




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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 7, 2021
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 21st, 2021 at 2:46:26 AM permalink
............................


𝐃𝐔𝐓𝐂𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆


this is a strategy I'm using more and more in my betting
it means betting more than one horse to win - usually 3 or 4
I use it to bet against a fave when I think he is weak
an invalid criticism of this strategy is that if you bet on 4 horses to win you must lose at least 3 of your bets
obviously you will win more often
the player who bets $100 on one number at roulette has the exact same long run expectation as a player who makes 20 $5 bets
yes, I know that horse racing is not roulette - it doesn't matter - the same principle applies
the benefit of this strategy is that compared to betting one horse to win at 5/1 - if you consider your dutched bet as one bet - you have greatly reduced variance
if a punter likes betting horses who are 5/1 and he can score about one in 5 times - if he has a bad run he can easily lose 35 or 40 times in a row - that's rough - although some can sit thru that - I can't
here is an example of dutching at this race at Aqueduct if I thought the #1 horse at 3/5 is weak and I want to bet against him - (and BTW NYRA tracks have a slightly lower takeout than most other tracks making it a very good track to do this)

spreading - dutching - $100 this way:

$45 on the #4 at 3.40/1...............payout if wins......$198.............net profit............$98
$30 on the #2 at 4.70/1................payout if wins......$171............net profit............$71
$25 on the #3 at 5.50/1.................payout if wins ...$162.50........net profit..........$62.50



𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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February 21st, 2021 at 10:45:55 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

............................


𝐃𝐔𝐓𝐂𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆


this is a strategy I'm using more and more in my betting
it means betting more than one horse to win - usually 3 or 4
I use it to bet against a fave when I think he is weak
an invalid criticism of this strategy is that if you bet on 4 horses to win you must lose at least 3 of your bets
obviously you will win more often
the player who bets $100 on one number at roulette has the exact same long run expectation as a player who makes 20 $5 bets
yes, I know that horse racing is not roulette - it doesn't matter - the same principle applies
the benefit of this strategy is that compared to betting one horse to win at 5/1 - if you consider your dutched bet as one bet - you have greatly reduced variance
if a punter likes betting horses who are 5/1 and he can score about one in 5 times - if he has a bad run he can easily lose 35 or 40 times in a row - that's rough - although some can sit thru that - I can't
here is an example of dutching at this race at Aqueduct if I thought the #1 horse at 3/5 is weak and I want to bet against him - (and BTW NYRA tracks have a slightly lower takeout than most other tracks making it a very good track to do this)

spreading - dutching - $100 this way:

$45 on the #4 at 3.40/1...............payout if wins......$198.............net profit............$98
$30 on the #2 at 4.70/1................payout if wins......$171............net profit............$71
$25 on the #3 at 5.50/1.................payout if wins ...$162.50........net profit..........$62.50



I suggest you to pick a horse to bet on place or show. better return.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 21st, 2021 at 11:15:52 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

suggest you to pick a horse to bet on place or show. 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧.




a statement like that just can't stand
it would require an enormous amount of data to prove that as well as an enormous amount of analysis

I'm not willing to do that and neither are you

what I stated represents my opinion that what I posted can be an effective strategy
you have a different opinion
fair enough
but I suggest you not make statements that cannot be backed up with data


if your show horse or place horse comes with the 3/5 fave the payouts going to shrink dramatically on a 4/1 horse because the fave got so much of the show and place pool that there's not a lot left in the pool(s) to pay on the other horse(s)


as you can see in the example shown the #2 at 4.70/1 paid only $2.40 to show
the #4 at 3.40/1 paid only $2.30 to show
because they came with the 3/5 fave -


also, you can only make a raw guess at what a place and show payout will actually be
win bets are also an estimate because the odds can change late after you've made your bet


𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐬



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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 21, 2021
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
speedycrap
speedycrap
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February 22nd, 2021 at 8:00:58 AM permalink
Dear Lilredrooster:
Please, take it easy. That statement was just an expression. I like to bet on place/show because I am not good at picking the winner. Also, I like to collect my hard earned money on every bet. Thanks.
Regards
Speedy
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 5th, 2021 at 4:41:20 AM permalink
..............................


my favorite strategy is to bet on a horse that has received an exceptional comment in his last race which was a stakes event
this is a horse who responds when asked - not a dullard
chart writers are stingy in their praise of horses
exceptional comments include "closed fast, closed with a rush, surged, going away, with authority, good energy, wore down rivals, came flying late"
then I will watch the replay to verify the comment - although chart writers are usually very good
I then need to make sure the horse is not stepping up into tougher competition and is not overmatched
finally, I need to see that he's not bet down unrealistically to the point where the bet is not worthwhile
of course, many others see these comments and they can affect the odds
but if it's a large field and/or the competition is keen a bettor can fairly often get decent odds on such a horse


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 5, 2021
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
billryan
billryan
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March 5th, 2021 at 8:43:56 AM permalink
I'm reading an early 20th Century dime novel about the rivalry between Domino and Henry of Navarre, which seems to have been the first great racing rivalry.
Domino was considered the fastest horse to ever run at this point, but Henry upset him in the Belmont which set up the most anticipated race in American history- a match race between the two. According to the story, Domino leads most of the race but Henry passed him at the top of the stretch with Domino pulling up at the last moment to finish in a dead heat.
Three weeks later, Henry beat Domino in a race where two other horses appeared to conspire to box Domino in.

Domino retired to stud, but produced only twenty horses before he died under mysterious circumstances. His foals had a spectacular record and many of today's champions can be traced back to him. Two triple Crown winners are direct descendants of Domino.

Henry of Navarre proved to be a dud at stud for horse races and eventually was gifted to the US Army where he was able to produce hundreds of future US Calvary.

Among the various characters in the book are a father and son named Keene. I'm going to guess they are the Keene's in Keeneland.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 5th, 2021 at 9:10:38 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'm reading an early 20th Century dime novel about the rivalry between Domino and Henry of Navarre, which seems to have been the first great racing rivalry.
Domino was considered the fastest horse to ever run at this point, but Henry upset him in the Belmont which set up the most anticipated race in American history- a match race between the two. According to the story, Domino leads most of the race but Henry passed him at the top of the stretch with Domino pulling up at the last moment to finish in a dead heat.
Three weeks later, Henry beat Domino in a race where two other horses appeared to conspire to box Domino in.

Domino retired to stud, but produced only twenty horses before he died under mysterious circumstances. His foals had a spectacular record and many of today's champions can be traced back to him. Two triple Crown winners are direct descendants of Domino.

Henry of Navarre proved to be a dud at stud for horse races and eventually was gifted to the US Army where he was able to produce hundreds of future US Calvary.

Among the various characters in the book are a father and son named Keene. I'm going to guess they are the Keene's in Keeneland.




thanks for that - that was very interesting - I didn't know about that race
I'm sure you know about the famous match race between Seabiscuit and War Admiral that was made into a book and a movie
I searched a little about your story and found this - an actual pic of the fans and the race and the 2 horses - although it's not all that clear - still interesting - it looks like it was a sloppy track - they're throwing back a lot of water


𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
billryan
billryan
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March 5th, 2021 at 9:52:46 AM permalink
It's a dime novel so I imagine it plays fast and loose with the facts.

Doing just a bit of research, it was amazing how many racing legends came from Domino.
War Admiral, Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Bold Ruler,Zenyatta, etc, etc.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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