onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 7999
March 22nd, 2017 at 9:56:00 PM permalink
I get email invitations to visit their Facebook page to enter a contest to win $20 in wagering credits. They have a specific race where you're supposed to 1) Choose the winner of the race, and 2) Choose the time of the race.

Is it better to pick the favorite(chalk) hoping to win on the tie breaker, pick someone less than favored hoping no tie breaker is needed, or does it matter. There is no way to know how many people have entered, but assumed, not many, because I usually only see just a few likes.

My tie breaker strategy, I look for any entrants' past results for the same furlong length race and randomly choose somewhere 1 second more or less of that time.

There is only one race in the contest.
Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on Mar 22, 2017
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 155
  • Posts: 2949
March 23rd, 2017 at 4:26:45 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle


My tie breaker strategy, I look for any entrants' past results for the same furlong length race and randomly choose somewhere 1 second more or less of that time.




For your original pick your choice should be the horse most likely to win the race regardless of odds based on your handicapping. If you don't want to handicap the entire field then you are probably best off picking the favorite IMO since you are not penalized by a skimpy payout on the favorite as a player often is with a normal bet. For your tie breaker strategy, which you seem to want to make a pick with a limited amount of handicapping, IMO you should add consideration of the competition level at which the horse performed well at the same distance, i.e. claiming, allowance or stakes. Often, but not always, the competition level can be learned from the size of the purse. If the entrants competed at the same track, then the purse size is a good indicator. If not, it's more difficult because casino payments to the track have often artificially inflated purse size. If the entered horses competed at different tracks then IMO the next best indicator is the speed figure earned by the horses you are considering at the same distance. This is bare bones handicapping. Intense horseplayers would go into much more depth. If you want to do no handicapping, the betting favorite wins in the long run about 33% of the time which is a higher percentage then any media tout can predict.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 23, 2017
𝘈 𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘺 𝘮𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘴.... ᴴᵉʳᵐᵃⁿ ᴹᵉˡᵛⁱˡˡᵉ
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 7999
March 23rd, 2017 at 7:11:13 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

For your original pick your choice should be the horse most likely to win the race regardless of odds based on your handicapping. If you don't want to handicap the entire field then you are probably best off picking the favorite IMO since you are not penalized by a skimpy payout on the favorite as a player often is with a normal bet. For your tie breaker strategy, which you seem to want to make a pick with a limited amount of handicapping, IMO you should add consideration of the competition level at which the horse performed well at the same distance, i.e. claiming, allowance or stakes. Often, but not always, the competition level can be learned from the size of the purse. If the entrants competed at the same track, then the purse size is a good indicator. If not, it's more difficult because casino payments to the track have often artificially inflated purse size. If the entered horses competed at different tracks then IMO the next best indicator is the speed figure earned by the horses you are considering at the same distance. This is bare bones handicapping. Intense horseplayers would go into much more depth. If you want to do no handicapping, the betting favorite wins in the long run about 33% of the time which is a higher percentage then any media tout can predict.

For the purpose of winning $20 wagering credits, I'm trying to spend as little time doing it as possible. I noticed someone tried entering I the comments, might be a good strategy commenting with a ridiculously off time to screw up the competition by setting a base number in their head. One problem with this thing in the first place, no way to tell how many entered because it's private. You make good points with your advice about class looking at similar races. The ballpark average time is not yet a shortcut in my head, just never pay attention to it.

I'm using equibase, looking at entrants in the race through a search, then looking at their results one by one. It's time consuming because I have to open a PDF every time.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 548
Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
March 23rd, 2017 at 8:10:41 PM permalink
What is the class of the race? If it's a Graded Stakes race, your probably fine picking the favorite, especially if it's got low odds. If it's a claiming 10,000 race, you're probably fine throwing a dart at a board, if you can't handicap it, and probably even if you can.

As for the time. Make sure you look at the winning times, or adjusting the time from the winning time, for horse finishing 2nd or higher. Probably easier to just look at winning times for the class, and guesstimate the winning time will be close to that. Without really handicapping the race, to tell if it's going to be run fast or slow, it will be hard to get a closer time, and if it rains or anything, your time will be way off the average. Plus you have to take into account the track the race is run at, sometimes tracks are much slower or faster than others.

So, if you can look for average class winning times at that particular track. And, check the weather at the racetrack the race will be held at. That will help get you a decent time.

Good luck.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 986
March 24th, 2017 at 8:33:10 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

For your original pick your choice should be the horse most likely to win the race regardless of odds based on your handicapping. If you don't want to handicap the entire field then you are probably best off picking the favorite IMO since you are not penalized by a skimpy payout on the favorite as a player often is with a normal bet. For your tie breaker strategy, which you seem to want to make a pick with a limited amount of handicapping, IMO you should add consideration of the competition level at which the horse performed well at the same distance, i.e. claiming, allowance or stakes. Often, but not always, the competition level can be learned from the size of the purse. If the entrants competed at the same track, then the purse size is a good indicator. If not, it's more difficult because casino payments to the track have often artificially inflated purse size. If the entered horses competed at different tracks then IMO the next best indicator is the speed figure earned by the horses you are considering at the same distance. This is bare bones handicapping. Intense horseplayers would go into much more depth. If you want to do no handicapping, the betting favorite wins in the long run about 33% of the time which is a higher percentage then any media tout can predict.



youre looking at old stats....favs win 37% these days
get second you pig

  • Jump to: