AP BEEEEEEEENGO?

I've been wondering about this for some time. I like to infiltrate bingo halls in the wee hours, when the places are all but empty and the little old ladies are home resting up for tomorrow's combat. It seems obvious that at some point, the purchase of a bingo card becomes +EV. It also seems obvious that as more people play, and the more cards are purchased, each person's EV goes down, as the prizes do not increase while everyone's individual chances get worse. For example, if everybody bought a $10 bingo card and the prize was $100, the game would be +EV if there were nine players or fewer. A person could not improve on things by buying additional cards. For example, if there were ten players, buying one additional card would increase a person's winning chances from 1/10 to 2/11--a doubling of the investment, but without a doubling of one's chances to win. It seems obvious that this effect would hold true regardless of the number of players or the number of games, as long as the prizes remained constant. In other words, the players who purchase more than the minimum degrade everyone else's EV without increasing their own EV proportionately. Therefore, the urge to buy more bingo cards is a "tragedy of the commons" situation.

Probably due to this effect, I've read that bingo is a "loss leader" for the casinos, returning 104% last time I checked. It seems obvious to me that that EV would be worse in a crowded hall and better in a near-deserted hall. So I'm wondering how one estimates the tipping point. When (as in, with how few cards in action) does bingo become +EV?

An obvious situation would be in the games where any color card is eligible for the same coverall jackpot. This makes buying any denomination of card other than the lowest a spectacularly dumb idea. But you can't buy a whole truckload of blue cards (the cheapest, usually) in such a situation and come out ahead, for the reason noted above: the additional investment in the additional cards isn't properly compensated for by added EV.

So my question is: is it at all worthwhile to seek +EV opportunities in uncrowded bingo games? Also, is my idea of buying in for the minimum in any-color-card-eligible coverall games the best for an AP approach, or is there something even better?

(Also, I assume that there is some point at which the "hot ball" progressives and/or any coverall progressives go positive, but how does one calculate that?)

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

I've been wondering about this for some time. I like to infiltrate bingo halls in the wee hours, when the places are all but empty and the little old ladies are home resting up for tomorrow's combat. It seems obvious that at some point, the purchase of a bingo card becomes +EV. It also seems obvious that as more people play, and the more cards are purchased, each person's EV goes down, as the prizes do not increase while everyone's individual chances get worse. For example, if everybody bought a $10 bingo card and the prize was $100, the game would be +EV if there were nine players or fewer. A person could not improve on things by buying additional cards. For example, if there were ten players, buying one additional card would increase a person's winning chances from 1/10 to 2/11--a doubling of the investment, but without a doubling of one's chances to win. It seems obvious that this effect would hold true regardless of the number of players or the number of games, as long as the prizes remained constant. In other words, the players who purchase more than the minimum degrade everyone else's EV without increasing their own EV proportionately. Therefore, the urge to buy more bingo cards is a "tragedy of the commons" situation.

Probably due to this effect, I've read that bingo is a "loss leader" for the casinos, returning 104% last time I checked. It seems obvious to me that that EV would be worse in a crowded hall and better in a near-deserted hall. So I'm wondering how one estimates the tipping point. When (as in, with how few cards in action) does bingo become +EV?

An obvious situation would be in the games where any color card is eligible for the same coverall jackpot. This makes buying any denomination of card other than the lowest a spectacularly dumb idea. But you can't buy a whole truckload of blue cards (the cheapest, usually) in such a situation and come out ahead, for the reason noted above: the additional investment in the additional cards isn't properly compensated for by added EV.

So my question is: is it at all worthwhile to seek +EV opportunities in uncrowded bingo games? Also, is my idea of buying in for the minimum in any-color-card-eligible coverall games the best for an AP approach, or is there something even better?

(Also, I assume that there is some point at which the "hot ball" progressives and/or any coverall progressives go positive, but how does one calculate that?)

I don't think you're going to get an

AP

answer to your questions. This is one of those things you have to puzzle out for yourself. Maybe someone will advise you via PM if they think you won't go giving their info up on a public board like this one. Jmho.

There's a reason you won't find many APs writing about this online (publicly). Good plays have been ruined in the past because people gave out too much valuable information. Thanks.

AP bingo = finding that rich old lady that's about to croak and marry her. :-)

Quote: RS

There's a reason you won't find many APs writing about this online (publicly). Good plays have been ruined in the past because people gave out too much valuable information. Thanks.

Yeah, but you're overlooking one thing. A bingo prize is like a progressive slot jackpot. The casino doesn't care who wins it. And as far as other APs flooding Arizona Charlie's at 3 in the morning and ruining someone's play, I doubt very much that that's going to happen. Also, since the amounts involved are nominal--it's likely that at best, buying $10 worth of bingo cards is worth $15 or something like that--I doubt that any such info would draw the APs away from the $5 VP machines, nor would it cause a mass casino shutdown of late night bingo.

I doubt that there's actually much money in this. That's probably why there isn't any online information out there. I was just curious whether this was actually a positive EV approach of any significance. God knows, Brunhilda's fleas, or somebody like them, would be all over this play if it was worth $10 an hour.

Bingo is a woman's game. Men suck at hunting and pecking. This might not seem true, but it is, and why bingo is dominated by women. Accuracy is too important in bingo, so if you're not very good, you have to buy less cards to keep on top of things. If there is computerized bingo, maybe worth playing just to compete.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

AP bingo = finding that rich old lady that's about to croak and marry her. :-)

I witnessed that once when I tried playing free bingo cards for my birthday and it was gross.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

So my question is: is it at all worthwhile to seek +EV opportunities in uncrowded bingo games? Also, is my idea of buying in for the minimum in any-color-card-eligible coverall games the best for an AP approach, or is there something even better?

This is a topic I could talk a long time about. However, it is not of much value to talk in generalities as the bingo rules and conditions will vary for every location. Certainly one part of it is choosing uncrowded places and times. A good time to avoid crowds is when a cashball jackpot is low. However, you tend to look at more than just a lack of competition. There are sometimes sessions were between the prize pool, competition, and special kinds of cards you can gain an edge. You have to know your local scene.