Powerball at 400 Million
Poll
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62 members have voted
Quote: WizardEstimated jackpot up to 800M...
I reported this hours ago lol
Quote: DeucekiesVery well. I'll be sure to get one $10 ticket instead of five $2 tickets. Gotta increase my edge where I can.
Wait, I misspoke, it is 5 push-ups per play. However, I'll let you alone off easy with 5 per ticket.
Quote: vegaspeteHas anyone heard of the birthday thesis? The thesis that most people pick some derivative of a birthday and therefore the probability of multiple winners is higher for numbers under 32. My question is - does this strategy (picking only >32 for the white balls) change the odds of winning?
I believe that thesis. I'd still be very interested to see a distribution of how often each number is picked in any lottery.
Any given number has the same chance of being drawn. However, if you pick lots of birthday numbers, you will likely have to share the jackpot with more people if you win.
Quote: vegaspeteHas anyone heard of the birthday thesis? The thesis that most people pick some derivative of a birthday and therefore the probability of multiple winners is higher for numbers under 32. My question is - does this strategy (picking only >32 for the white balls) change the odds of winning?
I am a believer of the "ages-and-birthdays" theory - a significant number of tickets are bought by someone with a spouse and child, and the numbers played are their ages and birthdays.
Assuming you meant "change the odds of being the only winner" instead "change the odds of winning," I would say, "Yes, but not by any noticeable amount." I am also under the impression that, especially with a large jackpot, the vast majority of plays will be Quick Picks. That being said, stay away from any noticeable patterns. There are probably a number of Trekkies out there who play 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, and Powerball 13, because they saw Captain Picard tap out that sequence of numbers (as an attempt to show intelligence) in an episode once.
Quote: WizardEstimated jackpot up to 800M. That increases my estimate of at least one winner to 90% and the expected number of winners to 2.3.
Would you by chance have a standard deviation to add to that?
Quote: WizardWait, I misspoke, it is 5 push-ups per play. However, I'll let you alone off easy with 5 per ticket.
Thank you for your fairness. I'll split the difference with you and make it ten.
Quote: ahiromuWould you by chance have a standard deviation to add to that?
The variance is the same as the mean with the Poisson distribution, so the standard deviation is 1.517.
https://www.usamega.com/powerball-jackpot-annuity.asp?state=WA&d=
Why do the payments get progressively larger? are they hoping someone older wins and dies before they collect the winnings and by loading the back end they benefit even more?
I would appreciate any enlightenment.
Quote: WizardI believe that thesis. I'd still be very interested to see a distribution of how often each number is picked in any lottery.
Any given number has the same chance of being drawn. However, if you pick lots of birthday numbers, you will likely have to share the jackpot with more people if you win.
Better to share the pot and win, than to lose alone.
Quote: rainmanHere is a link to a payment schedule if one were to win the PB in WA which does not tax lottery jackpots.
https://www.usamega.com/powerball-jackpot-annuity.asp?state=WA&d=
Why do the payments get progressively larger? are they hoping someone older wins and dies before they collect the winnings and by loading the back end they benefit even more?
I know that in California, if a winner dies, the annuity goes to the estate, so I am assuming Washington works the same way. The increase each year is probably just to make a few extra dollars worth of interest over the years, or to get away with a smaller starting value (so the lump sum option would be lower).
Notice that each payment is 5% higher than the previous one. This is similar to how the NCAA spreads out the CBS basketball tournament contract money; the pool goes up 8% a year (at least, that's how it used to work; it may have changed with the new contract).
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyBetter to share the pot and win, than to lose alone.
What is your point? That birthday numbers have a better chance of winning?
Quote: ThatDonGuyI know that in California, if a winner dies, the annuity goes to the estate,
Can you provide a source?
I'm fairly confident there is some very fine print on the payout of Powerball jackpots as an annuity that are part of the game itself. Best guess is you could hire three different very competent legal counselors and get at least 4 different rational sounding interpretations about what that fine print actually means. That would be before you run into various state regulations that limit and/or amend or otherwise alter the original intent even if you could, or anyone could, come to some consensus of what the original intent was intended to define.Quote: WizardCan you provide a source?
I know I will not win.
My advice to the winner(s), just MOHO, take the cash settlement and run.
Run fast, run hard.... Don't look back, it will slow you down.....
As a hedge against inflation?Quote: rainmanWhy do the payments get progressively larger?
After all, in 20 years, you're gonna say, "$800mil ain't what it used to be..."
What catches my eye in that article is the 25% tax. Is that the standard for lottery wins or annuities? I thought the highest tax bracket, which $12m would certainly put you in, was 35%.
Quote: DeucekiesI like the theory of smaller payments early in order to hold the cash and earn more interest better.
What catches my eye in that article is the 25% tax. Is that the standard for lottery wins or annuities? I thought the highest tax bracket, which $12m would certainly put you in, was 35%.
The top federal income tax bracket is 39.6%. Just because they withhold only 25%, doesn't mean you don't owe the difference next April, plus additional taxes on dividend and capital gains income on the winnings you invested.
Quote: WizardIt doesn't pass the smell test with me that an annuity winner couldn't leave it to an heir. Sounds like a Big Brother conspiracy theory that the government would seize it. Then again, I've been wrong before. Please, anybody, prove me wrong if you think I am.
This article says it goes to the estate/heirs and also provides a link to the lottery website where they obtained the info.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/national/what-happens-to-your-powerball-winnings-if-you-die-while-receiving-annual-pay
Quote: DJTeddyBearAs a hedge against inflation?
After all, in 20 years, you're gonna say, "$800mil ain't what it used to be..."
If at any time I seem concerned about inflation after winning 800mil it would be
your duty as my WoV brother to find me a nice place to stay where they serve
Thorazine for breakfast.
Quote: rainmanThis article says it goes to the estate/heirs and also provides a link to the lottery website where they obtained the info.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/national/what-happens-to-your-powerball-winnings-if-you-die-while-receiving-annual-pay
So if the lottery winner dies....well, that might certainly give some family members motive to off the winner. People have been killed for much smaller insurance proceeds, much less half a billion dollars.
Quote: rainmanThis article says it goes to the estate/heirs and also provides a link to the lottery website where they obtained the info.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/national/what-happens-to-your-powerball-winnings-if-you-die-while-receiving-annual-pay
This backs up what I wrote -- that it is a conspiracy theory that the money goes back to the state.
Quote: WizardWhat is your point? That birthday numbers have a better chance of winning?
Don't be afraid to play birthday numbers because of the higher probability and lower EV, as you state, of sharing the pot.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyDon't be afraid to play birthday numbers because of the higher probability and lower EV, as you state, of sharing the pot.
They don't have a higher probability, just a lower EV. I would want the whole 800 million for myself -- to hell with sharing.
Quote: GWAEWould gambling loses be able to offset some of lottery winnings?
Yes.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ronald-l-wasserstein/chances-of-winning-powerball-lottery_b_3288129.html
is almost three years old and I don't remember when I first bookmarked it, but I do remember bookmarking it because I enjoyed it. I too, thought "you have a better chance of being hit by lightning" (than winning the Powerball lottery) was a very bad analogy.
I enjoyed the author's way to visualize how rare an event of 1 in 175 million really is. (Note: This article was written when the odds of winning were 1 in 175 million, and not 1 in 292,201,338 as they are now. With the new odds, I believe you now have enough dollar bills to lay them end-to-end three and a half times around the country!)
I'd be interested in hearing about other neat ways to visualize 1 in 292.2 million. Getting bit by a shark and getting hit by lightning don't do it for me.
Quote: WizardThe variance is the same as the mean with the Poisson distribution, so the standard deviation is 1.517.
Thanks!
Agreed, good article, very good visualization of the odds. If you could run this circuit of bills as fast as Hussain Bolt, I wonder how long it would take to make it. Once around.Quote: EdCollinsThis article
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ronald-l-wasserstein/chances-of-winning-powerball-lottery_b_3288129.html
I enjoyed the author's way to visualize how rare an event of 1 in 175 million really is.
Quote: WizardCan you provide a source?
The California Lottery FAQs for MegaMillions and the California-only Lotto game say this, although it's not on the Powerball FAQs page for some reason.
P.S. I have no problem with a "free" shot at losing the Powerball :-)
Quote: IbeatyouracesDamn, I missed out on a FREE ticket. Greektown gave away 1000 of them this morning. I missed out.
P.S. I have no problem with a "free" shot at losing the Powerball :-)
Missed out on a free shot at... $900,000,000!
(Minus one pallet)
Quote: ThatDonGuyThe California Lottery FAQs for MegaMillions and the California-only Lotto game say this, although it's not on the Powerball FAQs page for some reason.
For the benefit of others:
Quote: MEGA MillionsIf a winner dies before receiving all annual payments, MEGA Millions will continue to pay the annual payments, as scheduled, to the winner's designated beneficiary or to the winner's estate.
Quote: SuperLottoIf a winner dies before receiving all annual payments, SuperLotto Plus will continue to pay the annual payments, as scheduled, to the winner's designated beneficiary or to the winner's estate.
I continue to maintain it is a myth that the state/lottery will pocket all unpaid payments if the winner dies.
In the spirit of awful reporting on the Powerball, a so-called expert on the Today show today perpetuated this myth.
In other news, the estimated jackpot is up to 900 million. This causes me to update my estimates to 4.0 winners and a probability of at least one of 98.2%.
Quote: WizardThis causes me to update my estimates to 4.0 winners and a probability of at least one of 1.8%.
I'm assuming you mean 98.2%
Quote: JohnnyQAgreed, good article, very good visualization of the odds. If you could run this circuit of bills as fast as Hussain Bolt, I wonder how long it would take to make it. Once around.
Given an average of 23mph, which is reported for Usain Bolt, I get 738.27 running hours to run the length of 175,223,510 dollar bills.
Since you said one trip around that loop, it would be half that.
Quote: SOOPOOI'm assuming you mean 98.2%
Ooops. Yes.
Get a lifetime haircut pass at supercuts
Buy a $500 million visa gift card
Throw dice at craps max bet until i throw 18 yos
Buy cars, houses and property in my momma name
Be hood rich
Hire rob singer as my vp, and life coach
Pay wizard $3 million to permaban rs
Start grinding out 8/5 ddb $100 with the rob singer system
Season tickets for seahawks
Pay square enix people tons of overtime so they can put out the best ffvii remake of all time
$5 ten play ux just because
Set aside 100 years of wsop main event buyins
Learn to fly
Pay mike tyson to teach me how to box
Buy an authentic lightsaber used in the movie, preferably the red one darth vader used
Go to disneyland
Get a new phone
Play blackjack with aos
Bet so much money on the other side when the seahawks play so people get good odds on seattle
I hope there is a winning ticket so the hoopla dies down. I'm getting tired of people telling me how many tickets they bought. And I'm sure they're getting tired of me telling them they are not going to win.
Feds gotta be loving this.
16, 19, 32, 34, 57, PB 13
Quote: djatcif i won the lottery, i would
If I win, I'm going to take the lump sum, get all the cash in heavy metal box and self-record a video of me burying it in some non-descript location, then post the video on the Internet. Think I'll wear some Joker makeup and laugh hysterically during the whole thing.
Why? I don't know. Why not. It'd get me a Wikipedia page!
In keeping with the Alan 18yo Mendelssohn thread
I wonder what the probability is of getting the same quick pick numbers all six - twice on the same ticket
