Thread Rating:

Poll

30 votes (48.38%)
7 votes (11.29%)
15 votes (24.19%)
4 votes (6.45%)
6 votes (9.67%)

62 members have voted

Wizard
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January 6th, 2016 at 10:00:56 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Rollover. Initial estimate is $675M. It will probably get to $800M before the draw.



What is the record for the biggest jackpot of any US lottery -- before the split?

In other news, I'm waiting on http://lottoreport.com/powerballsales.htm to update the jackpot and sales for today's drawing for my analysis of the next one, on Jan 10.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
JB
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January 6th, 2016 at 10:56:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

What is the record for the biggest jackpot of any US lottery -- before the split?


Mega Millions paid a $656 million jackpot to 3 winners in 2012. The now $675 million Powerball jackpot will set the new record. (source)
ahiromu
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January 6th, 2016 at 11:39:15 PM permalink
250ish million after taxes and lump sum. You could buy a Bombardier 8000 ($65 million) and actually pay for upkeep indefinitely, within reason.
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kewlj
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January 7th, 2016 at 1:34:38 AM permalink
So....no winner. All you folks that dreamed of Wednesday being your last day of work, go back to work tomorrow. :)
Deucekies
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January 7th, 2016 at 2:03:47 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

250ish million after taxes and lump sum. You could buy a Bombardier 8000 ($65 million) and actually pay for upkeep indefinitely, within reason.



How much does it cost to keep up a Bombardier 8000 per year?

Personally, I like the ideas in this Wall Street Journal article. Just invest the money in municipal bonds and corporate bonds, and live off the millions in interest that come in each year without ever touching the prize money.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
JB
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January 7th, 2016 at 2:52:13 AM permalink
Here's some valuable advice from a "lottery expert" [sic] interviewed by ABC News. (source, WARNING: auto-plays video)

Quote: ABC News

If you play the lottery regularly, it is important to pick your own numbers and to stick to that same combination every time you play, lottery expert Richard Lustig said.

"Never ever, ever change those numbers," Lustig told ABC News.

Lustig knows a thing or two about successful lottery bids because he has won seven lottery game grand prizes in his lifetime. So he plays regularly and has theories about ways that people should research their numbers and determine whether their selections work.

But, for more infrequent players who are only drawn in with extreme jackpots, there is less of a science involved.

"The only advice I can really give people is buy as many tickets as you can afford," Lustig said.


GWAE
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January 7th, 2016 at 3:56:00 AM permalink
yay we get to dream for an extra few days before our dreams are crushed.

I didn't know they changed the number of balls until this thread. If I remember correctly the odds of jackpot got significantly worse. I assume this means the jackpot will grow to this level pretty frequently, I wonder if the masses will figure it out and not play until it hits 600+ instead of 400+.

I bet this goes to 725 before the draw because sales will be huge. 1 more rollover will get the drawing to 1B.
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Joeman
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January 7th, 2016 at 4:34:02 AM permalink
There were 2 winning numbers that weren't available before October of last year. I wonder if that made it more likely that there was not a jackpot winner, especially if people "never ever, ever change those numbers," like the 'lottery expert' suggests above.

They were also consecutive. I wonder if consecutive numbers also decreases the chance of a winner. Maybe it's just me, but I will tend to not pick consecutive numbers if I fill out my own card. I know there is no logical reason for this, as each number is equally likely, but my brain wants to see the numbers "spread out" a little. Maybe it's just me.

As for the poll question, I ended up not buying a ticket this time, but I just may do so for the next drawing. Wizard, with the expected jackpot nearer to your optimal amount for the best return, will you commute your push-up requirement per ticket purchased? Perhaps a discount based on a sliding scale?
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
MidwestAP
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January 7th, 2016 at 6:06:51 AM permalink
Quote: Face

Since you are not a member of DT and have missed my exploits, I will advise that I am familiar with Caribbean and have piloted large vessels around there a few times. I'm neat, clean, not scared of work, and quiet as a church mouse. I also know a bunch of hotspots, whether you're looking for diving, fishing, parties, R&R, scenic views, or contraband. If you need a captain, I'm the cheapest you'll ever find. I even defend from pirates! ;)



Contingent on winning the new jackpot this weekend (since the lottery gods obviously wish that I win more than a measly $500M), you are hired to captain my boat around the islands. We need a name for this vessel, I suggest "Debauchery"
TwoFeathersATL
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January 7th, 2016 at 6:24:19 AM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

Contingent on winning the new jackpot this weekend (since the lottery gods obviously wish that I win more than a measly $500M), you are hired to captain my boat around the islands. We need a name for this vessel, I suggest "Debauchery"

That might work. I'm forgetful, it was you that promised 'hookers and blow for all' right?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Wizard
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January 7th, 2016 at 6:24:34 AM permalink
Time to update my predictions. First, http://lottoreport.com/powerballsales.htm reports that there were $352,287,260 in sales, not counting the Power Play side bet. That is 176.1 million tickets sold (remember they cost $2 each). The jackpot increased by $195 million. So, the jackpot went up by $1.11 for each ticket sold. That is more than the figure I used before. I thought that half the money was supposed to go to state coffers, so I'm not sure I entirely trust that figure.

Given the current jackpot of $675 million, I predict 336 million tickets will be sold for the Jan 9 drawing. The probability of at least one winner is 68.3% and the expected number of winners is 1.15.

If there is no winner for the next drawing, then I predict a jackpot of 1.05 billion for the Jan 13 drawing.

Here is my updated graph of sales by jackpot size.

Last edited by: Wizard on Jan 7, 2016
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
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January 7th, 2016 at 6:35:54 AM permalink
LotteryUSA says that the Wednesday jackpot would have been $524.1 million, and the previous draw's would have been $355.8 million.

If CNN's report that 300 million tickets were sold is accurate, that's 56.1 cents per ticket going into the jackpot.

However, I have no idea where LotteryUSA gets its jackpot amounts from; for all I know, they take the announced number of tickets, multiply by 56 cents, and add that to their previously announced amount.

In California, one person had 5 numbers but not the Powerball, and won $1.4 million (rather than the fixed $1 million in other states) - and note that the full amount is paid as a lump sum. On the other hand, the 17 people with 4/5 and the Powerball each got only $21,300 instead of $50,000.
Wizard
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January 7th, 2016 at 6:50:13 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

On the other hand, the 17 people with 4/5 and the Powerball each got only $21,300 instead of $50,000.



The prize outside of California for hitting 4 out of 5 plus the Power Ball is $10,000. Were you applying the Power Play multiplier? Was it 2x yesterday?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
miplet
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January 7th, 2016 at 7:00:58 AM permalink
The 68.3 is added to the lump sum, not the annuity.
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Romes
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January 7th, 2016 at 7:04:04 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The prize outside of California for hitting 4 out of 5 plus the Power Ball is $10,000. Were you applying the Power Play multiplier? Was it 2x yesterday?

I believe it was 3x... I didn't know there was a "multiplier" with this (you can tell how often I play the lottery).

...Is this something we cal vulture? =)
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ahiromu
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January 7th, 2016 at 7:12:16 AM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

How much does it cost to keep up a Bombardier 8000 per year?

Personally, I like the ideas in this Wall Street Journal article. Just invest the money in municipal bonds and corporate bonds, and live off the millions in interest that come in each year without ever touching the prize money.



If memory serves, something a little north of $2m a year of fixed and variable costs, depending on how many flight hours. Mapping out operational costs is usually in the brochure.

Obviously this isn't a great way to spend money, but getting something a bit cheaper in the 1.5m/year range could let you travel the world in your very own private jet. Nonetheless, charter is probably the best way to go.
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Wizard
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January 7th, 2016 at 9:31:01 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

The 68.3 is added to the lump sum, not the annuity.



Thanks. That would explain the apparent 55.5% contribution rate.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ibeatyouraces
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January 7th, 2016 at 9:38:45 AM permalink
Currently at $700 million with a cash option of $428 million.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
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January 7th, 2016 at 9:51:13 AM permalink
For the benefit of those outside Vegas, when they show a huge line of people to buy tickets, it is invariably the convenience store in Primm, just feet from the California/Nevada border on the I-15, not far from the Wizard of Odds highway cleanup sign.

You would think Vegas locals would be jaded to a sucker bet, but I guess not.

Moneymaking idea: Go to Barstow and buy thousands of tickets and then sell them to those waiting in line at Primm at a profit, like $2.50 a ticket.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
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January 7th, 2016 at 10:04:59 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Moneymaking idea: Go to Barstow and buy thousands of tickets and then sell them to those waiting in line at Primm at a profit, like $2.50 a ticket.



Baker is much closer and usually doesn't have the long lines.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Mooseton
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January 7th, 2016 at 10:09:08 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Moneymaking idea: Go to Barstow and buy thousands of tickets and then sell them to those waiting in line at Primm at a profit, like $2.50 a ticket.



Haha. You could also sell cigs and chips from your backpack 👀
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
Romes
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January 7th, 2016 at 10:29:56 AM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

Haha. You could also sell cigs and chips from your backpack 👀

...and bottles of bath tub water... LOL
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ayecarumba
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January 7th, 2016 at 11:12:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

...Moneymaking idea: Go to Barstow and buy thousands of tickets and then sell them to those waiting in line at Primm at a profit, like $2.50 a ticket.



That's a lot of push-ups. hehe
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Coastal
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January 7th, 2016 at 11:26:13 AM permalink
I'm in for the office pool and a couple on the side. A fun read for those who need some more warnings and advice about what to do if you win. (some language NSFW).
Ayecarumba
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January 7th, 2016 at 1:00:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba



Two of the column headers on the, "California Prize Allocation" table need to be corrected. They should read "White Balls Match" and "Power Ball Matches", instead of "Multiplier" and "Weight"

Quote: Wizard

Thanks; I fixed that.



FYI, I just scanned the table on the WoO site, and the incorrect column headers on the California Prize Allocation table are still in place.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
MidwestAP
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January 7th, 2016 at 1:17:02 PM permalink
Quote: Coastal

I'm in for the office pool and a couple on the side. A fun read for those who need some more warnings and advice about what to do if you win. (some language NSFW).



Interesting article. If I won, there are a couple steps I'd take even before retaining an attorney.

1) As suggested, don't tell anyone, the attorney should be the first
2) Sign the ticket front and back
3) Photo copy the signed ticket, front and back
4) Take a picture of yourself holding the signed ticket
5) Secure the ticket in a fireproof location outside of your house, a safe deposit box in a non flood zone would work.
6) Seek an attorney
GWAE
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January 7th, 2016 at 1:55:52 PM permalink
My luck I would go to photocopy it and my copier would combust and destroy the ticket.
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Romes
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January 7th, 2016 at 2:12:16 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

My luck I would go to photocopy it and my copier would combust and destroy the ticket.

I wouldn't do that... Photocopy machines keep soft-copies of everything they copy (wow the word copy was said a lot there). I don't think without the "original" ticket someone else could claim it, but they could certainly make trouble for you and/or publicize the fact that you won.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
MidwestAP
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January 7th, 2016 at 2:39:19 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I wouldn't do that... Photocopy machines keep soft-copies of everything they copy (wow the word copy was said a lot there). I don't think without the "original" ticket someone else could claim it, but they could certainly make trouble for you and/or publicize the fact that you won.



I wouldn't do it at a public copier, but definitely copy in on my own machine. The intent isn't to do anything with that copy other than keep it as a way to dispute a forged ticket, or stake a claim in case the original is stolen/lost. I think the safety measure outweighs any potential trouble.
TwoFeathersATL
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January 7th, 2016 at 3:39:34 PM permalink
Step 1 - buy a copy machine
Step 2 - photocopy your butt and Fed-Ex to Boss, he'll have to sign for it ;-)
Step 3 - Same as #2, except include ex-wives etc...

then photocopy the ticket....

Then shoot the photocopier, just cause you never met a copy machine you didn't eventually want to shoot....
Last edited by: TwoFeathersATL on Jan 7, 2016
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
MidwestAP
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January 8th, 2016 at 8:17:02 AM permalink
This guy has the right idea how to spend the winnings!
Wizard
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January 8th, 2016 at 8:36:37 AM permalink
The reporting on any lottery makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up. Take today's advice on the Powerball lottery at Today.com. I will say that point number one is a good one. However, let me address the rest of their advice:

Quote: Today Show

2. Hope the computer picks these numbers. The most frequently drawn numbers for Powerball are 26, 41, 22 and 16, according to LottoNumbers.com.



This is just the gambler's fallacy in reverse. Each trial is independent and each ball has the same chance.

Quote: Today Show

Buy your tickets in Pennsylvania. In the past 13 years, 16 winning Powerball tickets have been sold in the Keystone State, the most of any state in the country.



Again, the gambler's fallacy in reverse.

Quote: Today Show

4. You don't need to buy a bunch of tickets. The odds are so long that even buying a hundred or a thousand tickets is not going to dramatically increase your chances. If you want to go big and buy every possible number combination at $2 a ticket, that would cost $584 million, so you might want to skip that strategy.



I'm all in favor of playing the lottery in moderation, preferably not at all. However, if you buy 1,000 tickets your odds are 1,000 greater of winning (barring the very unlikely event of two tickets having the same numbers). Whether you buy one ticket or 1,000, your odds of winning are still very remote, but comparing the odds to each other, buying more tickets does help your chances pretty much in proportion to the number purchased. I think I agree with their point, but I don't like the way they phrased it.

If NBC should need a fact checker for any future piece they do on any lottery, I would be happy to help for free.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ibeatyouraces
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:07:43 AM permalink
Now $800 million.

I'm still not buying any.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ayecarumba
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:22:50 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Now $800 million.

I'm still not buying any.



There are reports on the news that 1 billion is in range. I don't think there is enough time to sell the tickets to hit that mark.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Romes
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:24:53 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Now $800 million.

I'm still not buying any.

$800 million? It's worth $2 to me for entertainment value at that point. I'll take one.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ahiromu
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:30:57 AM permalink
I posted without thinking again, nevermind.
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TwoFeathersATL
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January 8th, 2016 at 9:59:36 AM permalink
I'm a cheap bastard, I bought 1 ticket a few minutes ago, and a 4 pack of beer/ale.
Wonder which was the better investment?

<edit > And grabbed a 20 lb case of Blue Point oysters while I was out, now that $38.00 was money well spent..;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Joeman
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:03:47 AM permalink
I bought one ticket last night. Actually, Mrs. Joeman & I got some scratchers for Christmas from other family members. I took the winners and converted them into a few more scratchers and one Powerball ticket. Because, hey, we're playing with house money now! :P

Edit: Just did my 5 push-ups. Although, I probably owe more for the scratch-off tickets... and the "house money" comment.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
DMSCR
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:08:34 AM permalink
Now if there are no winners this weekend imagine this thing hits the 1 billion mark.

All these office pools will be like a bunch of seals fighting over a grape.

Human greed at its very finest.
Ibeatyouraces
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:13:02 AM permalink
Even if this were to be +EV after factoring in 3 winners, I STILL wouldn't buy any. The variance is just too great.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
GWAE
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:18:10 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Even if this were to be +EV after factoring in 3 winners, I STILL wouldn't buy any. The variance is just too great.



So what. $2 is worth the shot and dream.

I am splitting it with a buddy but I am buying 1 of each power number.
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TwoFeathersATL
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January 8th, 2016 at 10:22:00 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

So what. $2 is worth the shot and dream.

I am splitting it with a buddy but I am buying 1 of each power number.

I already got Powerball #1 covered ( yes, #1, how lame is that?) so save your $2 on that one....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
CrystalMath
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January 8th, 2016 at 11:27:13 AM permalink
In the second powerball return table, it should state that the return includes the likelihood of splitting the jackpot.
I heart Crystal Math.
Wizard
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January 8th, 2016 at 11:55:11 AM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

In the second powerball return table, it should state that the return includes the likelihood of splitting the jackpot.



Thanks. I often forget to update my title tables after a copy and paste.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Boz
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January 8th, 2016 at 12:44:34 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I'm a cheap bastard, I bought 1 ticket a few minutes ago, and a 4 pack of beer/ale.
Wonder which was the better investment?

<edit > And grabbed a 20 lb case of Blue Point oysters while I was out, now that $38.00 was money well spent..;-)



4 pack? Must be something of quality? Perhaps Terrapin Moo Hoo or Wake & Bake?
chaunceyb3
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January 8th, 2016 at 3:38:03 PM permalink
Alright, sign me up. I know Wizard only stipulated 5 push-ups per ticket purchased, but I'm in for 50.



Here you go, Chris Christie. Enjoy my money.
Wizard
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January 8th, 2016 at 4:56:13 PM permalink
Estimated jackpot up to 800M. That increases my estimate of at least one winner to 90% and the expected number of winners to 2.3.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Deucekies
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January 8th, 2016 at 5:05:53 PM permalink
Just to be sure, the push-up penalty is per ticket, not per play, correct?
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Wizard
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January 8th, 2016 at 5:07:13 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Just to be sure, the push-up penalty is per ticket, not per play, correct?



That is correct.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Deucekies
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January 8th, 2016 at 5:11:17 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That is correct.



Very well. I'll be sure to get one $10 ticket instead of five $2 tickets. Gotta increase my edge where I can.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
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