kobalj
kobalj
Joined: Jun 23, 2015
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October 18th, 2015 at 1:00:34 AM permalink
Hello everyone. I first posted you about my game a few months back but frankly gave you very limited info and rightfully got very little feedback. I believe I just sent the link to my app and that was about it. At any rate, I wanted to give you a more complete picture of Casino Over Under. Last time there were a few posts about counters being an issue so given who that came from I immediately had it looked at. Shipman Gaming did EOR analysis and determined the game is comparable to BJ as far as vunerability to card counting and also provided what modifications would make it a non-issue. Here's a few more things.

What makes this game different than the many other new games that have been unable to make it?

I feel that I was fortunate enough that one of the most familiar/popular gambling concepts in all the world was not presently being utilized successfully in a table game. It's huge and sports and even in life. We have all set all kinds of O/U's at the water cooler at work. I have a great IP law firm that has done a tremendous job. I feel confident in saying the exhaustive patent search that was conducted clearly confirms what I said above that there really is this O/U void in the table game market. I am patent pending but awaiting two non-provisionals to be approved and not worried in the slightest that they will not be. So I'm taking a familiar concept and filling that void. I'm hoping that will overcome the apparent dilemma I see of new games either being spin offs of existing games which I believe limits their potential or true originals which is always great but it's hard to do something that hasn't been done yet and at the same time have that sense of familiarity and understanding for people to want to lay their money down.

Other key points:
-Legendary Don Catlin figured the House Edge but in particular appreciated how we set it up for a casino to tell us what they want the HE to be then to look at Prof Catlin's chart to see how many decks is needed and what range to get as close to the number as possible. He feels it could be played anywhere from just under 1% to 7%. We prefer where the app is set at .98 as it leads to players winnings high % of hands which compensates for the limited challenging decisions to play optimally. Assuming people would rather win than have the need to be challenged.
- Owner of professional dealer academy with over 20 years experience at Harrah's as dealer/floor supervisor Wayne Jones has been instrumental in making our booklet for dealer training and playing methods. He feels the game is going to be particularly appealing to those slightly intimidated by BJ and also slot players which I found intriguing. He explained his reasoning and after hearing it I agreed. It's a fast paced game where there's a chance to win big and it plays fast enough to get you through the in between times when the action isn't as hot.
-The number of hands you can play in an hour is as fast as they come other than a few exceptions.
-The app has been a huge success. We've had thousands of downloads and great reviews. I get daily communications asking when and where it will be ran in a casino. The fan base grows more and more every passing day. The best part of that is once it's played for real I expect it to be even more appealing. I can't take credit for intentionally setting it up this way but for whatever reason the game has some intense swings and runs. I'm sure when those swings happen with real money instead of virtual the corresponding emotional response will be enhanced considerably.

How to play:
1. Place wager in either the ante spot and/or the bonus if you like.
2. After that, the first card is dealt and the player can do one of the following:
-Fold and forfeit all wagers placed and the hand is over or;
-The player may continue the game by matching the ante amount by placing an equal amount of chips in either the over spot or under spot.
3. The dealer deals the remains players their final two cards and the summation of the three cards determines the outcome for both the over/under and bonus.
4. To win an even money payout for an over play the total of the 3 cards much be greater than 23.
5. To win an even money payout for an under the 3 card total must be under 18.
6. There are no pushes.
6. To win the bonus the 3 card total must be between 6-12 or 27-33 and the payouts are paid according to the odds table. We are using payouts that range from eve money to 50 to 1.
In the app we are using those rules w 8 decks which yields the HE of .98% and here is where my phone is at after 1158 hands.
WINS 583
WIN % 50.35%
Longest win streak 8

Clearly that is just a hit streak and the more games I play the more it would inch towards the eventually surpass getting under that 50% win mark. But it's runs like this that can make a player happy he chose the seat he did. To each their own and I'm sure it's not for everyone but I agree there will be a vast number of people that will enjoy it quite a bit.

To download the app for free:
https://appsto.re/us/ZbTL6.i

First ever felt that just arrived.
IMG_1820.JPG

Let me know your thoughts. Thanks in advance for any feedback.

Jason
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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October 18th, 2015 at 5:08:34 AM permalink
Do aces only count as eleven or can they count as one also?
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
kobalj
kobalj
Joined: Jun 23, 2015
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October 18th, 2015 at 11:54:26 AM permalink
Aces are always 11. I have no clue why I failed to mention that.
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
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October 18th, 2015 at 1:08:50 PM permalink
Quote: kobalj

Legendary Don Catlin figured the House Edge but in particular appreciated how we set it up for a casino to tell us what they want the HE to be then to look at Prof Catlin's chart to see how many decks is needed and what range to get as close to the number as possible. He feels it could be played anywhere from just under 1% to 7%. We prefer where the app is set at .98 as it leads to players winnings high % of hands which compensates for the limited challenging decisions to play optimally. Assuming people would rather win than have the need to be challenged.


Kobalj, when you offer the game, DO offer it with multiple house edge options covering < 1% to 5%; it may need to be adjusted, and having them at the ready helps. Also, different casinos want tighter or looser games as per their needs. Give them a choice, and they will select one, and in the process, select your game.

Best of Luck!
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
kobalj
kobalj
Joined: Jun 23, 2015
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October 18th, 2015 at 1:24:36 PM permalink
Thank you. I will definitely follow that advice. It's what I was thinking but seeing it confirmed here eliminates the doubt. That's nice to see too as I have more than enough moments of uncertainty being outside my comfort zone of practicing law.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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October 21st, 2015 at 5:20:01 AM permalink
I vaguely remember seeing a similar game at a Coventry showcase a few years ago, although I can't find my notes on it. I'm guessing it was a shoe based game where it was an even money game (House Edge comes out at about 2.1% for six decks) - sadly the strategy (Raise=x1) is to never fold, so I suspect it might have been one bet where you just make a decision whether to bet Hi or Lo.

Personally I should prefer to see "24 or higher" rather than "higher than 23".
The game seems susceptible to counting the high cards, for instance an excess of 10s means 30 is more likely.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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October 21st, 2015 at 9:38:46 AM permalink
Good luck to you with your new game.



ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
kobalj
kobalj
Joined: Jun 23, 2015
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October 22nd, 2015 at 9:01:58 AM permalink
Thank you Charlie. I had a pretty exhaustive patent search done so I feel confident about the IP. Nonetheless, if you find your notes and its at all similar please forward it to me and I will immediately send it to my IP lawyer. There are a lot of games so I am sure it is possible. I suppose it could be outside the USA too.

For the range it is set at now folding is not optimal play but when I am imagining large amounts of money being placed in the ante spot then a five comes up it sure is tempting.

As far as the 24 or or higher thing that was a mental back and forth battle up in my wacky head that finally ended but now after seeing you say that I may be in for another go.

I had Joel SHipmann do an EOR report b/c someone here had expressed that the first time I joined. I immediately had that done and he said it is as susceptible to counting as blackjack and then gave instructions on how to make it a non-issue. I know Buzz in here thinks that is a bad thing but I thought it was alright. However, I have a tendency to see only the positive sometimes and this thing is so personal to me that sometimes in a situation like that I will fall victim to seeing what I want to see instead of what truly is.

I said this when I first joined and I will say it again. I have never seen a forum like this. It appears to have the best of the best in the industry and most of you are active. Every bit of feedback will be appreciated so keep it coming. Also, I've got thick skin so lay it on good if need be.
jopke
jopke
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October 29th, 2015 at 11:33:50 AM permalink
Just a thought, but if you wanted to get more hands in per shoe you could just deal the 2nd card as a single community card instead of having to give every player a 2nd card.
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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November 11th, 2015 at 12:54:57 AM permalink
Been playing this on my phone. Of course I had to do my own analysis.
Basic Strategy
2-5 Low
6 - A Hi

HE 1.9612004%
EoR 0.9806002%

Effects of different strategies

Folding 5
HE 3.5245553%
EoR 1.8327688%

Folding 6
HE 3.0370758%
EoR 1.5792794%

Low 6
HE 4.1962275%
EoR 2.0981137%

Main Bet
1st CardHiLowOtherHi EVLow EVBest EVFinal ReturnBest Play
21587215565121176576-1.976904720.2648739890.2648739890.020374922Low
314694413271361274880-1.786182411-0.068890053-0.068890053-0.005299235Low
443980810870081222144-1.36003725-0.418299284-0.418299284-0.032176868Low
56036488269121318400-1.121634364-0.796763867-0.796763867-0.061289528Low
67833605836801381920-0.860136197-1.150689715-0.860136197-0.066164323Hi
79748484546561319456-0.581502823-1.338431989-0.581502823-0.044730986Hi
811853123425281221120-0.275257552-1.501588965-0.275257552-0.021173658Hi
9141264024422410920960.055526454-1.6446306970.0555264540.004271266Hi
10662336065126437212160.409405739-1.7630871310.4094057390.125970997Hi
A1915936972807357440.787870322-1.8584482860.7878703220.060605409Hi


Side Bet
HandWaysProbabilityPaysReturn
6148800.000416381500.020819062
7476160.00133242100.0133242
8952320.0026648450.0133242
91608000.00449960440.017998415
102411520.00674806230.020244187
113394560.00949886520.01899773
124526400.01266604910.012666049
2717751360.04967293910.049672939
2815098880.04225060820.084501216
2912687360.03550254530.106507636
3014649600.04099340540.16397362
318279040.02316691550.115834576
321904640.00532968100.053296799
33148800.000416381500.020819062
13-26273327360.764841305-1-0.764841305
Total357364801-0.052861614
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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November 11th, 2015 at 10:36:27 AM permalink
^ I agree with your figures for eight decks - I had used six decks for my 2.099686% earlier. What I find slightly worrying is, as you always raise, a fairer House Edge would be half this (hence your EoR).
kobalj
kobalj
Joined: Jun 23, 2015
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November 11th, 2015 at 11:41:00 AM permalink
Forgive me for the late response. I got caught up a bit. Instead of even attempting to talk math with you guys I will save myself the embarrassment and simply share with the group my two reports I had done. As you will see both reports were done extremely well by both of these legends within the industry. I don't know if I could have picked a better two.

Joseph Shipman's Report

Donald Catlin's Report
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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November 11th, 2015 at 2:52:13 PM permalink
Interesting documentation. The game you described matches 23 1/2 and 17 1/2 and you'll see we both come up with never folding and the same figures.

As to countability there is a measure (teliot created it) which essentially says how profitable a game or side-bet is. It is based on sitting out unprofitable situations, flat betting ($100) when things are good and seeing how much profit can be gained per 100 hands seen. The advantage of this is that it gives a numerical value, that can be compared with Blackjack (or other well-known games). As one of your reports says, usually this can typically be reduced by using more decks and/or having less penetration - i.e. shuffling earlier. However sometimes, while there is a possible profit, it's so low that it's not worth the bother.

As a comparison, it seems your game might be countable based on being able to bet 1 unit and 5 units when favourable (strategy 5) coming out as nearly 3% for 75% penetration. These figures are for UK Blackjack (based on some 10m-shoe simulations using infinite deck strategy)
DecksPenetrationProfit using 1 to 5 spread$ / 100 hands
466% 0.63%$26.75
483% 1.13%$39.21
666% 0.25%$18.36
683% 0.60%$27.20
6CSM-0.42% $1.75
kobalj
kobalj
Joined: Jun 23, 2015
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November 13th, 2015 at 3:27:20 PM permalink
Thanks Charliepatrick. I am in the process of getting GLI certified and specifically paid extra for them to do a separate report on counting. As you can see, I don't mind sharing and I will gladly share that when completed unless GLI has issue with me doing so. I am passionate about my game and want to know every potential issue there can be so I can see if the issue can be rectified.

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