Super 4 Progressive Blackjack

So long story short. Do u guys thing this side bet is worth playing. Or is it just a sucker bet making it even harder to win by the time u leave the tables?

Quote: Laz

So long story short. Do u guys thing this side bet is worth playing. Or is it just a sucker bet making it even harder to win by the time u leave the tables?

This is an awful bet. Hit frequency terrible too.

Yea I agree. I feel that if ur not that lucky person hitting on it big then ur just making it harder to win from the bet. There have been a few times that I would have won 750 from three of a kind, but I wasn't playing it. I would have gave it all back anyways considering I was playing for hours on hours that day and was also playing two hands. I must have played well over 200 hands. If I played progressive I would be giving back 10 bucks each hand essentially just probably breaking even after hitting for 750. This side bet is for the gamblers that go everyday all day.

I have been counting and playing the side bet at true 5 or higher with some success (against six decks). I don’t keep a separate count of aces, but that would probably add to one’s odds of winning the side bet.

After about ten trips (5 hours per trip), I have hit the straight twice, the flush once; and the same color, pairs, dealer’s blackjack, and dealer’s ace up-no blackjack several times.
Since the count is high when I make the bet, the chances of my getting 20, or at least one 10 count, is good; which makes the possible matches with the dealer’s cards more likely.
I am fairly certain that I am ahead making the side bet at true 5 or higher. And I am playing at a casino where they pay $50 less than the chart on the big payouts, though they do pay $15 for any dealer’s ace (rather than $10).

At a true 5, I also bet two hands. While this means a loss of $10 each hand that I don’t hit, I do get paid on both hands if the dealer shows an ace. Also, when he shows an ace, and the count is 5 or higher, I take insurance; so, in addition to winning on the side bet, I don’t lose my initial bets. Today, for example, at a true 6, I made the side bets, and the dealer had a blackjack with an ace showing against my two hands of 17 and 15. I lost neither bet ($60 each) because I had taken insurance, and I won $75 on one hand that was the same color, and $50 on the other, which had a pair with the dealer’s 10.

I honestly don’t know the math on this side bet while card counting, but I know that I am not losing overall when making the bet at a true 5. And I am way ahead betting Lucky Ladies at a true 5.

Perhaps I'll have some help for you shortly. I've been working on a single page app[lication] that might answer some questions about this side bet. The questions I wanted answered is given a pay table and shoe content, what is the expected return? The "perfect deck" answer given by the Wizard of Odds write up for Super 4 is a great starting point, but nobody gets to make a bet against a perfect deck: a burn card is removed before play. Is it significant? Well, the table below shows what I've come up with for the Pay Table 2 - 6 Decks case given at the referenced link:

Burn Card	+EV=>
2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9	794,021.37
T	807,583.19
none	814,835.65
J,Q,K - S,H,C	821,032.32
A - S,H,C	877,028.58
J,Q,K - D	929,698.36
A - D	993,105.89

With the Envy Bonus and number of other players betting taken into consideration, the minimum meter needed for +EV varies by -5/+23% for the first deal of a new shoe in this case. I hope to have the app available next month. You will be able to use the pay table that applies to where you play. (The minimum meter needed for +EV drops to 770,944.44 with Envy Bonus 3000/1000 and all six players betting.)

The app is ready, I hope those interested in this side bet find it usefull. Enjoy!

Super 4 Blackjack Progressive Single‑Level Analysis

Can you explain the math?

I get "pay occurs" and probability, - there's a 1 in ~ 598,000 chance of hitting a diamond royal flush.

I also get that when the bonus is really high, placing a 1 chance in 598,000 times bet in order to win a million is a better than when it's $20,000.
I've heard of theories of betting every single powerball combination when the jackpot is millions.

Can you define the other columns in layman's terms? I get that deck composition will effect the probabilities, but the numbers change, without my knowing what they mean.

I can enter the composition of the deck in the "Shoe" tab, but I'll need to take some time to figure out the composition of a TC +4 deck, vs. +3, and so on. I'm not going to keep track of aces when I'm playing, so all I'll have in my head during a shoe is the TC, not the composition of the deck.

If I could plug in a "+4" TC along with the variable paytable amounts, and get back numbers that I understand, that would be better.

I do like the part where you;ve put in all this work, and the results are available for free. I'm reminded of that gift horse...

If however, you do make these changes, continue to provide the fruits of your labors for free, and then I bet the progressive and win...

You'll have my undying gratitude.

Thank you for your kind words, racquet. Before I address you questions, I'd like to inform the forum in general that the Super 4 Blackjack Progressive Single‑Level Analysis web application was not available for several days due to a hosting service issue. That is corrected and the application is available. No installations necessary, no ads, no graphics.

I would also like to mention that the Super 4 Progressive meter at Mohegan Sun was at $950,000+ when I left there on Saturday. That made the side bet about +7% EV. You don't often find a bet in a casino with a value like that without "cheating." Sweet!

Here's a quick explanation of 5 columns for the main Analysis table. By the way, the same 5 table columns are given in the Wizard's write up on Super 4, only with different names.

Hand - The paying hands for the side bet, plus entries for non-paying and total.

Pays - The current values supplied from the Pay Table tab for each hand.

Pay Occurs - Based on the current shoe composition supplied from the Shoe tab. For each hand, the value given is the permutations for that hand less the permutations that will be classified as and paid at a higher value. For example, the "All Same Color" value is the permutations for that hand less what will be paid as "Two Pair," "Flush," "Straight," "Three of a Kind," and "Royal Flush."

Probability - The probability of the hand occurring based on shoe composition. For each hand, this is the "Pay Occurs" value divided by the "Total Permutations" value.

Bet x Return - The "x" will be the wager entered on the Pay Table tab. The return is the "Pays" value times the "Probability" value, less the wager since the wager is not returned. The total for this column is the overall expected return for the wager. The wager divided by that total is the expected value.

Your interest in a TC "Easy Button" analysis is understandable. I wish it were an easy thing to do. The difficulty starts with nailing down what counting method you want to use. No matter which one you select, a particular TC value represents millions of possible shoe compositions if not more. The application I designed works with one shoe composition that you can vary. So, what you request is pretty much a different application altogether that this application might provide a first step for.

Finally, TC values are an indicator for winning blackjack hands and blackjack-value hands are only part of that. I think that the meter value for Super 4 is a far better indicator of when to place the side bet than TC. I further speculate that an ace count might be the way to go to further refine when the side bet is a good value. I might be doing some further work on that speculation.

It's obvious (now that you point it out... DUH!) that TC alone doesn't make it a good bet. If five of the six Aces of diamonds have gone by, a TC of +10 does nothing for you. I have tried to keep count of aces, but can't think up or read about an added advantage of knowing it. And it's not as easy as I thought, especially if it interferes with a Hi-Lo counting rhythm that I have grown used to and can do in my sleep.

Absent filling in all the blanks under the Shoe tab, I wonder if a TC of "+x" could presume an "average occurrence" of cards in a remaining shoe of "y" decks. Although a deck of the highest "plus" value imaginable could still be full of 7s 8s and 9s. For a royal flush in any suit, those cards get in the way, whereas they might be okay for a winning set of pairs, same color, or flushes.

I swim out to the deep end of the math pool now and then and sooner or later realize I am in way over my head. I'm there now.

I don't bet Match the Dealer, and I don't play Super 4. But I do buy $10 worth of Powerball tickets when they start advertising a pot of a few hundred million bucks. So I guess I'll throw $5 at this now and then when it gets over 1 million. But only on a positive TC. Who knows...

I think Hi-Opt II with Ace side count is probably the perfect system to count this. If Ace saturation is 50% higher than normal it's already breakeven without the jackpots considered. Anyone have info on what the HE/PE is with Hi-Opt 2 ace side count?