Wizard
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Wizard
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January 27th, 2015 at 9:02:07 AM permalink
Here is what the market has to say about the 2016 presidential election odds.

Party to win:

Democrat: 59.3%
Republican: 40.7%

Democratic Primary:

Hilary Clinton: 80%

Republican Primary

Name Odds
Jeb Bush 25.0%
Mitt Romney 13.7%
Scott Walker 12.5%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
Rand Paul 9.7%
Chris Christie 7.0%
Ted Cruz 5.8%
Rick Perry 4.9%
Mike Huckabee 4.2%
Paul Ryan 3.1%
Bobby Jindal 2.7%


I had to look up to see who Scott Walker was.

Looks like a Bush vs. Clinton rematch is looking like the most probable outcome.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Zcore13
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January 27th, 2015 at 9:08:21 AM permalink
What horrible choices.



ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
kewlj
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January 27th, 2015 at 9:26:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is what the market has to say about the 2016 presidential election odds.

Party to win:

Democrat: 59.3%
Republican: 40.7%

Democratic Primary:

Hilary Clinton: 80%

Republican Primary

Name Odds
Jeb Bush 25.0%
Mitt Romney 13.7%
Scott Walker 12.5%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
Rand Paul 9.7%
Chris Christie 7.0%
Ted Cruz 5.8%
Rick Perry 4.9%
Mike Huckabee 4.2%
Paul Ryan 3.1%
Bobby Jindal 2.7%


I had to look up to see who Scott Walker was.

Looks like a Bush vs. Clinton rematch is looking like the most probable outcome.



Don't even bother looking up Scott Walker. lol

From a strictly numbers angle, I would think a wager on republican presidential win at somewhere as close to +150 (even +140) as you can get would be a great wager. It is bound to tighten up once actual candidates win their party's nomination. At least to the point that you could wager the other way and guarantee a profit. Only problem is you would have to hold this wager for 2 years.
bigfoot66
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January 27th, 2015 at 9:29:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is what the market has to say about the 2016 presidential election odds.

Party to win:

Democrat: 59.3%
Republican: 40.7%

Democratic Primary:

Hilary Clinton: 80%

Republican Primary

Name Odds
Jeb Bush 25.0%
Mitt Romney 13.7%
Scott Walker 12.5%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
Rand Paul 9.7%
Chris Christie 7.0%
Ted Cruz 5.8%
Rick Perry 4.9%
Mike Huckabee 4.2%
Paul Ryan 3.1%
Bobby Jindal 2.7%


I had to look up to see who Scott Walker was.

Looks like a Bush vs. Clinton rematch is looking like the most probable outcome.



I'll buy Rand Paul and Chris Christie, and sell Romney and Bush.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
Twirdman
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January 27th, 2015 at 9:49:33 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Quote: Wizard

Here is what the market has to say about the 2016 presidential election odds.

Party to win:

Democrat: 59.3%
Republican: 40.7%

Democratic Primary:

Hilary Clinton: 80%

Republican Primary

Name Odds
Jeb Bush 25.0%
Mitt Romney 13.7%
Scott Walker 12.5%
Marco Rubio 11.2%
Rand Paul 9.7%
Chris Christie 7.0%
Ted Cruz 5.8%
Rick Perry 4.9%
Mike Huckabee 4.2%
Paul Ryan 3.1%
Bobby Jindal 2.7%


I had to look up to see who Scott Walker was.

Looks like a Bush vs. Clinton rematch is looking like the most probable outcome.



Don't even bother looking up Scott Walker. lol

From a strictly numbers angle, I would think a wager on republican presidential win at somewhere as close to +150 (even +140) as you can get would be a great wager. It is bound to tighten up once actual candidates win their party's nomination. At least to the point that you could wager the other way and guarantee a profit. Only problem is you would have to hold this wager for 2 years.



I don't know given demographic shifts and an improving economy among other factors I really don't see a Republican win especially given the current candidates who will be in the Republican primaries. Most likely if anyone remotely moderate like Jeb is to win he will need to or at least think he needs to shift super far right which will hurt him in the general.
Boz
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January 27th, 2015 at 9:54:56 AM permalink
Scott Walker is a huge success story in that the liberals and their Union Thugs went after him, even having a recall election, which he won easily. His no nonsense financial decisions helped everyone I the state, except the public service union members and the public agreed with his choices. That said, he isn't very well known outside the Midwest and faces a long uphill battle if he decides to run.
AZDuffman
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January 27th, 2015 at 10:17:42 AM permalink
Quote: Twirdman



I don't know given demographic shifts and an improving economy among other factors I really don't see a Republican win especially given the current candidates who will be in the Republican primaries. Most likely if anyone remotely moderate like Jeb is to win he will need to or at least think he needs to shift super far right which will hurt him in the general.



The "demographic shift" thing is overblown. Democrats have written off the white working-class vote. They are counting on other minorities to vote in lock-step like blacks, which is unlikely to happen. Democrats have not won 3 POTUS elections in a row since 1948.

Don't count on the economy to get much better, either. Remember, the economy was booming as late as early 2007. That the Democrats are counting on an old woman running on her husband's name and record as though we are Argentina should be a major worry.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AcesAndEights
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January 27th, 2015 at 11:18:46 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Democrats have not won 3 POTUS elections in a row since 1948.


Yes, and the "2012 election marked the first time since Franklin D. Roosevelt's last two re-elections in 1940 and 1944 that a Democratic presidential candidate won a majority of the popular vote in two consecutive elections." And "Obama was also the first president of either party to secure at least 51% of the popular vote in two elections since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956." (both from wikipedia).

Last election I saw a very long list of these stupid statistics that all predicted a Romney win; they were all just that, stupid. I can't seem to find the list now, which makes me sad.

I am not an Obama backer or Democrat, but calling out these factoids is pointless.

The fact of the matter is that the GOP's core constituency (old white dudes) is dying.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
bobsims
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January 27th, 2015 at 11:38:37 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Yes, and the "2012 election marked the first time since Franklin D. Roosevelt's last two re-elections in 1940 and 1944 that a Democratic presidential candidate won a majority of the popular vote in two consecutive elections." And "Obama was also the first president of either party to secure at least 51% of the popular vote in two elections since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956." (both from wikipedia).

Last election I saw a very long list of these stupid statistics that all predicted a Romney win; they were all just that, stupid. I can't seem to find the list now, which makes me sad.

I am not an Obama backer or Democrat, but calling out these factoids is pointless.

The fact of the matter is that the GOP's core constituency (old white dudes) is dying.



The facts are that whites, Asians and higher intellect legal hispanics of all ages are trending Republican by the day and the base of the Party Of Owe-blacks, anchor babies, naive college kids and welfare ho's are dispirited and disillusioned from 6 plus years of the Messiah during which they have gone nowhere but backwards. Hence the result of the election held 2 months ago.
rdw4potus
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January 27th, 2015 at 11:54:11 AM permalink
Sell Perry, sell Huckabee, short Clinton. 5% is too high for the GOPers. That's just free money. It's like betting against a safety in the superbowl! Clinton is high at 80%. She'll dip after the competition is known and before primary season starts. Sell her now & buy her back on the dip.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
terapined
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January 27th, 2015 at 12:33:22 PM permalink
Quote: bobsims

he facts are that whites, Asians and higher intellect legal hispanics of all ages are trending Republican by the day and the base of the Party Of Owe-blacks, anchor babies, naive college kids and welfare ho's are dispirited and disillusioned from 6 plus years of the Messiah during which they have gone nowhere but backwards. Hence the result of the election held 2 months ago.



I'm Asian, I voted Obama.
Last Presidential election, Newt came out and said "We lost the Asian vote" "This is the hardest-working and most successful ethnic group in America--they ain't into gifts"
Proud to be Asian, proud that I voted for Obama.
All my Asian friends and Family voted for Obama :-)
Will vote for Clinton

President Hillary Clinton
has a nice ring to it :-)
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
kewlj
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January 27th, 2015 at 3:42:44 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

That the Democrats are counting on an old woman running on her husband's name and record as though we are Argentina should be a major worry.



Yep....she is old. ALMOST as old as Mitt Romney.
Twirdman
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January 27th, 2015 at 4:01:15 PM permalink
Quote: bobsims

Quote: AcesAndEights

Yes, and the "2012 election marked the first time since Franklin D. Roosevelt's last two re-elections in 1940 and 1944 that a Democratic presidential candidate won a majority of the popular vote in two consecutive elections." And "Obama was also the first president of either party to secure at least 51% of the popular vote in two elections since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956." (both from wikipedia).

Last election I saw a very long list of these stupid statistics that all predicted a Romney win; they were all just that, stupid. I can't seem to find the list now, which makes me sad.

I am not an Obama backer or Democrat, but calling out these factoids is pointless.

The fact of the matter is that the GOP's core constituency (old white dudes) is dying.



The facts are that whites, Asians and higher intellect legal hispanics of all ages are trending Republican by the day and the base of the Party Of Owe-blacks, anchor babies, naive college kids and welfare ho's are dispirited and disillusioned from 6 plus years of the Messiah during which they have gone nowhere but backwards. Hence the result of the election held 2 months ago.



Yeah Asians trending so much towards the GOP that 71% of them voted for Obama. Hispanics are in the high 60s I think. If we look at party identification 36% identify as democrats whereas 17% identify as Republicans. But you are right definitely trending towards Republicans.
bobsims
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January 27th, 2015 at 6:53:49 PM permalink
Quote: Twirdman

Quote: bobsims

Quote: AcesAndEights

Yes, and the "2012 election marked the first time since Franklin D. Roosevelt's last two re-elections in 1940 and 1944 that a Democratic presidential candidate won a majority of the popular vote in two consecutive elections." And "Obama was also the first president of either party to secure at least 51% of the popular vote in two elections since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956." (both from wikipedia).

Last election I saw a very long list of these stupid statistics that all predicted a Romney win; they were all just that, stupid. I can't seem to find the list now, which makes me sad.

I am not an Obama backer or Democrat, but calling out these factoids is pointless.

The fact of the matter is that the GOP's core constituency (old white dudes) is dying.



The facts are that whites, Asians and higher intellect legal hispanics of all ages are trending Republican by the day and the base of the Party Of Owe-blacks, anchor babies, naive college kids and welfare ho's are dispirited and disillusioned from 6 plus years of the Messiah during which they have gone nowhere but backwards. Hence the result of the election held 2 months ago.



Yeah Asians trending so much towards the GOP that 71% of them voted for Obama. Hispanics are in the high 60s I think. If we look at party identification 36% identify as democrats whereas 17% identify as Republicans. But you are right definitely trending towards Republicans.



Yes I am right. But you and terapined keep drinking that Kool-Aid. Sounds like it tastes good!
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/11/all-of-a-sudden-asian-americans-are-voting-more-republican.html
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/9/asian-vote-breaks-for-republicans-in-midterms/?page=all
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-05/republicans-courted-asians-and-it-paid-off
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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January 27th, 2015 at 7:18:07 PM permalink
Quote: bobsims



Yes I am right. But you and terapined keep drinking that Kool-Aid. Sounds like it tastes good!
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/11/all-of-a-sudden-asian-americans-are-voting-more-republican.html
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/9/asian-vote-breaks-for-republicans-in-midterms/?page=all
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-05/republicans-courted-asians-and-it-paid-off



Seriously? The Washington Times and Marginal Revolution? Gosh, I wonder what they're saying over at www.peoplewhosharemyviews.com.

edit: Here's the first sentence from the Bloomberg article: "Evidence from recent election cycles suggests Republicans have some distance to go in winning minority support in major elections."

It goes on to say that the GOP did in fact pick up a lot of Asian American support in 2014. They doubled their share from 2012 and got almost half of the Asian American vote. So, they're right back to the roughly 50/50 split that they had before their share started eroding in the 1992 cycle. Almost back to historical support levels isn't exactly great in a mid-term election that had historically low turnout.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
rxwine
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January 27th, 2015 at 8:12:55 PM permalink
It's still awful early for predictions to be accurate. 8 years ago, I believe Hillary was high on the radar, and Obama was the 50-1 longshot. (number only suppose to simulate horse racing not actual odds)
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Twirdman
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January 27th, 2015 at 8:27:18 PM permalink
Quote: bobsims

Quote: Twirdman

Quote: bobsims

Quote: AcesAndEights

Yes, and the "2012 election marked the first time since Franklin D. Roosevelt's last two re-elections in 1940 and 1944 that a Democratic presidential candidate won a majority of the popular vote in two consecutive elections." And "Obama was also the first president of either party to secure at least 51% of the popular vote in two elections since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956." (both from wikipedia).

Last election I saw a very long list of these stupid statistics that all predicted a Romney win; they were all just that, stupid. I can't seem to find the list now, which makes me sad.

I am not an Obama backer or Democrat, but calling out these factoids is pointless.

The fact of the matter is that the GOP's core constituency (old white dudes) is dying.



The facts are that whites, Asians and higher intellect legal hispanics of all ages are trending Republican by the day and the base of the Party Of Owe-blacks, anchor babies, naive college kids and welfare ho's are dispirited and disillusioned from 6 plus years of the Messiah during which they have gone nowhere but backwards. Hence the result of the election held 2 months ago.



Yeah Asians trending so much towards the GOP that 71% of them voted for Obama. Hispanics are in the high 60s I think. If we look at party identification 36% identify as democrats whereas 17% identify as Republicans. But you are right definitely trending towards Republicans.



Yes I am right. But you and terapined keep drinking that Kool-Aid. Sounds like it tastes good!
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/11/all-of-a-sudden-asian-americans-are-voting-more-republican.html
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/9/asian-vote-breaks-for-republicans-in-midterms/?page=all
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-05/republicans-courted-asians-and-it-paid-off



Even just going with your articles there is no reason to suspect that Asians will vote for a Republican given
The last time Republicans cracked the 50 percent mark in exit polling was 1996, when Sen. Bob Dole won more Asian-Americans than President Clinton. The GOP’s worst showing in a presidential election was two years ago, when President Obama won 73 percent in his re-election bid.

In midterm elections, though, the GOP has shown steady gains, winning 34 percent in 2002, 37 percent in 2006 and 41 percent in 2010.

So while they have had steady gains and 2010 was a markedly good year they got thoroughly trounced in 2012. The makeup of midterm election voters is different even within the same demographic group. Specifically they are more conservative.
bobsims
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January 28th, 2015 at 9:16:33 AM permalink
Quote: Twirdman

Quote: bobsims

Quote: Twirdman

Quote: bobsims

Quote: AcesAndEights

Yes, and the "2012 election marked the first time since Franklin D. Roosevelt's last two re-elections in 1940 and 1944 that a Democratic presidential candidate won a majority of the popular vote in two consecutive elections." And "Obama was also the first president of either party to secure at least 51% of the popular vote in two elections since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956." (both from wikipedia).

Last election I saw a very long list of these stupid statistics that all predicted a Romney win; they were all just that, stupid. I can't seem to find the list now, which makes me sad.

I am not an Obama backer or Democrat, but calling out these factoids is pointless.

The fact of the matter is that the GOP's core constituency (old white dudes) is dying.



The facts are that whites, Asians and higher intellect legal hispanics of all ages are trending Republican by the day and the base of the Party Of Owe-blacks, anchor babies, naive college kids and welfare ho's are dispirited and disillusioned from 6 plus years of the Messiah during which they have gone nowhere but backwards. Hence the result of the election held 2 months ago.



Yeah Asians trending so much towards the GOP that 71% of them voted for Obama. Hispanics are in the high 60s I think. If we look at party identification 36% identify as democrats whereas 17% identify as Republicans. But you are right definitely trending towards Republicans.





So while they have had steady gains and 2010 was a markedly good year they got thoroughly trounced in 2012. The makeup of midterm election voters is different even within the same demographic group. Specifically they are more conservative.



Yeah look at 2006 midterms. The whole country, other than the base of millionaires, government workers, pimps, crackheads, ho's, never married welfare moms, high school dropouts and the like is trending Red. Plus the "base" is disillusioned and in no mood to vote since this administration has done she-it for them. Most people are slowly waking up and realizing that the trillion dollar annual deficits in the Democrat budget are simply unsustainable and will lead us to Greek style economic collapse next decade. Other than the base the majority of Americans see that the delusions of hope and change are chimerical. Recess is over; it's time for the adults.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/01/27/Dark-Shadow-Hanging-Over-Economic-Recovery
terapined
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January 28th, 2015 at 9:36:28 AM permalink
Quote: bobsims


Yeah Asians trending so much towards the GOP that 71% of them voted for Obama. Hispanics are in the high 60s I think. If we look at party identification 36% identify as democrats whereas 17% identify as Republicans. But you are right definitely trending towards Republicans.

Yes I am right. But you and terapined keep drinking that Kool-Aid. Sounds like it tastes good!
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/11/all-of-a-sudden-asian-americans-are-voting-more-republican.html
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/9/asian-vote-breaks-for-republicans-in-midterms/?page=all
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-05/republicans-courted-asians-and-it-paid-off



Your articles refer to a very very tiny sample of 126 Asians polled.
I'm just a hard working Asian , 40hr a week job, never took a hand out, middle class , voting for a Democrat for President.
I used to be a republican and am still registered as a republican but after Bush spent so much on Iraq war then bailed out Wall St with more tax payer money.
I cant vote Republican, cant trust them to stay in a budget. Cant trust them to give tax payer money to Wall St.
Cant trust them to start a war over fake weapons of mass destruction.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
thecesspit
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January 28th, 2015 at 10:26:39 AM permalink
Scott Walker steals the wrong music:

http://www.inquisitr.com/1785170/dropkick-murphys-order-scott-walker-to-stop-using-their-music-we-literally-hate-you/

Really odd choice for a Republican, Union buster from Wisconsin to use... words written by Woody Guthrie too.



Of course, I am sure our Republican fans don't care what a bunch of scruffy punks from Boston think about Walker, but I always find it laughable when politicians borrow music without checking where it comes from... and then failing to pay performing rights for it. I guess theft of intellectual property is fine if it's art.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Twirdman
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January 28th, 2015 at 10:35:29 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Scott Walker steals the wrong music:

http://www.inquisitr.com/1785170/dropkick-murphys-order-scott-walker-to-stop-using-their-music-we-literally-hate-you/

Really odd choice for a Republican, Union buster from Wisconsin to use... words written by Woody Guthrie too.



Of course, I am sure our Republican fans don't care what a bunch of scruffy punks from Boston think about Walker, but I always find it laughable when politicians borrow music without checking where it comes from... and then failing to pay performing rights for it. I guess theft of intellectual property is fine if it's art.



Sadly the Republicans even with all their stealing of music that doesn't fit them at all hasn't yet managed to capture the success of Reagan proclaiming Born in the USA as a pro-America song.
thecesspit
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January 28th, 2015 at 11:01:40 AM permalink
It's like using Green Day's 'Good Riddance (Time of your life)' as a wedding song... or 'Perfect Day' to advertise the BBC.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
MrWarmth
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January 28th, 2015 at 11:46:51 AM permalink
Scott Walker does seem somewhat nondescript, but hey, look where (supposed) charisma has taken us the last six years. We tend to choose, in our succeeding president, something we think is lacking in our previous one: Obama was well-spoken and charismatic; GWB was honest and forthright and not a sex predator; Clinton was not part of the establishment. Maybe the time is right for a nondescript and effective president.

Walker, running on an unabashedly conservative platform, won very-blue Wisconsin twice, survived a recall, held the state houses, and has turned Wisconsin around by, in large part, wresting it away from government unions. Union membership is way, way, down there, to the people's economic benefit, dues/memberships are no longer mandatory (pro-choice!) and ... more importantly ... union donations to Democrat candidates is way, way down.

Walker's plan and approach are working, and they appear to be the Republicans' best blueprint. Whether or not they'll follow it remains to be seen.

Other blue states appear to have taken notice in the form of electing Republican governors who ran on similar platforms (Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine and maybe you could shoehorn in Iowa and New Mexico). If those states follow the program of Wisconsin, I think there would be a jailbreak away from unions and the Democrats' donation-laundering.

That, coupled with sound economic performance, could be a death nell for liberalism. Well, at least in its current form, kind of like Socialism (National or otherwise) will never go away but will suffer repeated setbacks until humanity finally learns permanently. (Then again, if Stalin and Hitler couldn't make that imprint, I doubt Obama and Clinton will, either.)

Of course, my liberal friends here and elsewhere will take issue. But, as a converted liberal myself, I can say that liberals' electoral strategic advice for conservatives is ... ummm ... not intended or designed to help the conservative cause. We are best served by ignoring it.
thecesspit
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January 28th, 2015 at 12:43:33 PM permalink
I do hope liberalism doesn't die... that would be a great loss to world. Liberal Democracy was the heartbeat of the early republican party, and remains part of the constitution:

democratic elections, civil rights, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, free trade, and private property.

I do hope the American misappropriation of the word to be mean 'Centrist, Social Liberal' does die, and possibly there's good reason that that Corporatist Democracy that that Dems run could do with a kicking, as long as it's not replaced with a Centrist Republican Corporatism, that takes all the bad side of the former and removes any social justice.

Personally, anyone that removes mandatory membership of a Union (closed shops) is a good thing. Closed shop Unions are anti-liberal, bad for business and bad for the employees too, concentrating power into the hands of a few leaders... which might be fine politically, but not so good in a work environment. Just Mr Walker should choose better when it comes to the music...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
RonC
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January 28th, 2015 at 12:46:10 PM permalink
Quote: MrWarmth

Of course, my liberal friends here and elsewhere will take issue. But, as a converted liberal myself, I can say that liberals' electoral strategic advice for conservatives is ... ummm ... not intended or designed to help the conservative cause. We are best served by ignoring it.



I enjoy the posts that Liberals here make on how Conservatives should proceed if they want to win elections; they mostly show how much Liberals think they are so much smarter than everyone else. Of course none of them really want to help the Conservatives...so there is not much to be taken seriously.
Dalex64
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January 28th, 2015 at 1:29:13 PM permalink
I think if someone wants to win an election, they need to appeal to the moderates.
thecesspit
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January 28th, 2015 at 1:30:05 PM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

I think if someone wants to win an election, they need to appeal to the moderates.



In a two party system, this is doubly true.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
RonC
RonC
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January 28th, 2015 at 1:49:52 PM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

I think if someone wants to win an election, they need to appeal to the moderates.



That is important and it requires a message that appeals to the more conservative/liberal factions of the respective party (R/D) in order to win the nomination and then appeals to the moderates in order to win the general election.
Dalex64
Dalex64
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January 28th, 2015 at 3:04:22 PM permalink
That is the hardest part. You have to convince the primary voters that a less "ideal" candidate, for lack of a better word, has a better chance of winning the general election.

The way things seem to be going, with more and more candidates farther to the left and the right, is the people in the middle end up voting for the candidate that disgusts them the least. Imagine if the people in the middle actually found a candidate to be likable?

I think it is a mistake and pointless to try to appeal directly to the other party. If you do that, you end up fracturing your own vote, with the alienated members of your party voting for a more extreme 3rd party candidate, destroying the chances for either of them to win.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 28th, 2015 at 5:36:36 PM permalink
Hillary will be entertaining as a candidate. She's
not very bright and constantly puts her foot in
her mouth. She is real bad at thinking on her
feet.

Plus, who wouldn't want to see this on TV every
day:

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
terapined
terapined
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January 28th, 2015 at 5:54:54 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Hillary will be entertaining as a candidate. She's
not very bright and constantly puts her foot in
her mouth. She is real bad at thinking on her
feet.

Plus, who wouldn't want to see this on TV every
day:



I think EB really wants Hillary to win.
He's walking right into the Angela Merkel playbook that Clinton is using.
Merkel dominated the women vote in Germany.
Merkel got women voters from the other side of the aisle because of males like EB.
I can only hope more republicans follow EB's example to insure a Clinton Presidency :-)
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
BoulderDamIt
BoulderDamIt
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January 28th, 2015 at 6:55:03 PM permalink
Looks like the closest thing to a Libertarian they have is Rand Paul.
bobsims
bobsims
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January 28th, 2015 at 7:06:31 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Your articles refer to a very very tiny sample of 126 Asians polled.
I'm just a hard working Asian , 40hr a week job, never took a hand out, middle class , voting for a Democrat for President.
I used to be a republican and am still registered as a republican but after Bush spent so much on Iraq war then bailed out Wall St with more tax payer money.
I cant vote Republican, cant trust them to stay in a budget. Cant trust them to give tax payer money to Wall St.
Cant trust them to start a war over fake weapons of mass destruction.



Nobama was a prime mover behind the Wall Street bailouts (most Republicans voted NO) and we are STILL at war in Iraq and Afghan.-along with Syria, Somalia, Yemen, the Congo, Uganda, etc.
The trashy, geriatric Clintons supported Iraq from the start and have been fellating Wall Street and the banks for decades.
The trillion dollar deficits of the Party of Owe will sink this country faster than the Titanic.
Recess is over; it's time for the adults.
bobsims
bobsims
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January 28th, 2015 at 7:10:08 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

I think EB really wants Hillary to win.
He's walking right into the Angela Merkel playbook that Clinton is using.
Merkel dominated the women vote in Germany.
Merkel got women voters from the other side of the aisle because of males like EB.
I can only hope more republicans follow EB's example to insure a Clinton Presidency :-)



Merkel got 41.5% of the vote.
LOL
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 28th, 2015 at 7:15:33 PM permalink
Quote: terapined


He's walking right into the Angela Merkel playbook )



Except Merkel is brilliant. Hillary is a
doofus. Bill is her claim to fame. She
has no other accomplishments to point
to. She was senator and SoS solely
because she was Mrs Bill Clinton. Her
book tour was a disaster because
she's another Obama, she cannot
speak off the cuff without saying the
wrong thing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ams288
ams288
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January 29th, 2015 at 10:53:05 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Except Merkel is brilliant. Hillary is a
doofus. Bill is her claim to fame. She
has no other accomplishments to point
to. She was senator and SoS solely
because she was Mrs Bill Clinton. Her
book tour was a disaster because
she's another Obama, she cannot
speak off the cuff without saying the
wrong thing.



Obama won twice. Easily. Saying she is "another Obama" means absolutely nothing, unless you mean she's going to win (which you don't).

The right wingers have already shown their hand: paint her as old and ugly.

Good luck with that one! It will surely rub female voters the right way!
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
terapined
terapined
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January 29th, 2015 at 11:06:35 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

cannot
speak off the cuff without saying the
wrong thing.



Rick Perry?
He wants to cut 3 depts but cant name them LOL
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
bobsims
bobsims
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January 30th, 2015 at 4:15:11 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Obama won twice. Easily. Saying she is "another Obama" means absolutely nothing, unless you mean she's going to win (which you don't).

The right wingers have already shown their hand: paint her as old and ugly.

Good luck with that one! It will surely rub female voters the right way!



Nobama was re-elected by the skin of his teeth with 51% and losing 24 states. If one fifth of one percent of the people had changed their votes in 4 states he would have lost-Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire.
bobsims
bobsims
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January 30th, 2015 at 4:31:16 PM permalink
Quote: ams288



The right wingers have already shown their hand: paint her as old and ugly.



Nobody needs to "paint" her as old and ugly-she is!
Her and her felonious husband remind me of the statue of that trashy couple at Harrah's -http://www.tripadvisor.com/LocationPhotoDirectLink-g45963-d553027-i17565269-Casino_at_Harrah_s_Las_Vegas-Las_Vegas_Nevada.html

The pathetic part is that if these corporate/Wall Street/Zionist/militarist whores manage to squeak into a third term they will CUT THE GUTS out of their most ardent supporters-the extreme left.

The left is in a "heads you win tails we lose" relationship with that sociopathic couple.
ams288
ams288
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January 30th, 2015 at 5:20:22 PM permalink
Quote: bobsims

Nobama was re-elected by the skin of his teeth with 51% and losing 24 states. If one fifth of one percent of the people had changed their votes in 4 states he would have lost-Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire.



By the skin of his teeth. If you say so.

Is Costco having a sale on bulk Kool-Aid this month or something?
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Keyser
Keyser
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January 30th, 2015 at 8:04:01 PM permalink
Hillary is terrifyingly unqualified.

"Don't let anybody tell you that, you know, it's corporations and businesses that create jobs."

And the mess that she created for the men to clean up in Libya was quite troubling.


It's not because she's a woman, but perhaps the dems could find a male candidate that's more qualified and capable of dealing with the stress. Furthermore, I don't believe that she would be well respected by other nations.

Being first lady is one thing, but president? I don't think so.

-Keyser
Twirdman
Twirdman
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January 30th, 2015 at 8:28:43 PM permalink
Quote: bobsims

Nobama was re-elected by the skin of his teeth with 51% and losing 24 states. If one fifth of one percent of the people had changed their votes in 4 states he would have lost-Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire.



Skin of his teeth? Really? He won Florida by almost a full percent, Virginia by 4%, Ohio by 3%, and 5% for New Hampshire. The smallest of those is 5% sor hardly 1/5 of 1% which would be .2%.

Also elections aren't like horseshoes its not a matter of well I was close so I get a prize. Romney was defeated handily but even if it was as close as you pretend it is he still lost and everyone who knew anything about polling and data knew he was going to lose. Romney was one of the few people delusional enough to think he was going to win.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 30th, 2015 at 8:29:10 PM permalink
Quote: ams288



The right wingers have already shown their hand: paint her as old and ugly.



Can she be painted any other way? She's
an old hag! She would have work done,
but she can't take the chance she won't
look more hideous than she already does.
And she has another year to age even
more. She's under wraps right now because
they know the more we have to look at her,
and listen to what comes out of her empty
head, the more her ratings go down. She's
the most popular when nobody has seen
her for 3 months.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Twirdman
Twirdman
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January 30th, 2015 at 8:43:48 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Can she be painted any other way? She's
an old hag!



And yet she is roughly the same age as Romney is now and if she ran in 2016 would be roughly the same as as Reagan was when he ran and significantly younger then McCain when he ran. So keep going on about how she is somehow too old but all those people were exactly the right age.
kewlj
kewlj
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January 30th, 2015 at 8:56:26 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

She's an old hag!



Isn't she younger than you?


Anyway, I don't see why you need to call names. If you think she is unqualified, or even are against her policies, that is fine, but why do you need to call names like a third grader?

I, myself voted for Hillary in 2008 primary. And my history has been mostly voting democratic, due mostly to social issues. As we head to 2016, the social issue of Gay marriage is pretty much a done deal and I can weight some other issues that are important to me. I would very much like to not vote for Hillary. I hope the republican's give me that choice by putting someone up that I can take a real look at and maybe vote for. Jeb Bush, could be such a guy. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, definitely not such guys.
Keyser
Keyser
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January 30th, 2015 at 9:05:32 PM permalink
Hillary isn't attractive enough to become president.

If she looked more like Palin then she'd stand a better chance.


It would help if she maybe wore more makeup and grew out her hair.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 30th, 2015 at 11:29:32 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Isn't she younger than you?
Anyway, I don't see why you need to call names. .



She's older than even me. I've had a bitter
dislike for this woman since the early 90's.
She's shrill, she's mean, she's a harpy who
attached herself to a successful man like
a blood sucking leech and has ridden on his
back the whole way. She has done nothing
on her own, she's not bright enough.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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January 30th, 2015 at 11:35:16 PM permalink
Please tell us something you don't have a bitter dislike for.
Keyser
Keyser
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January 31st, 2015 at 12:04:49 AM permalink
Hillary simply isn't attractive enough to become president.


If she looked more like Sara Palin she'd stand a better chance.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 31st, 2015 at 12:29:28 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Please tell us something you don't have a bitter dislike for.



My dog, my kids, my car, my friends, my cats,
my brother, my Harley, my John Deere, my
Ninja slow cooker. I love the Ninja..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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