Betting the 2016 Election
Poll
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34 members have voted
Quote: WizardI don't. I predict he will not run in 2020. However I agree that Trump will not endorse Ryan. It could be a battle between Ryan and a Trump apprentice.
I still stand by the bet. I will say firmly that Paul Ryan will be president eventually. Maybe not 2020, but by 2028. That I would put even money on.
Agreed that Ryan looks good for '24... But so does Cruz. My conservative hopes are raised, as the President in '24/'28 will probably have some Supreme Court nominations to make.
Quote: DRichI don't think my bet of Hillary getting 50% of the popular vote is looking very good. Had this most recent email scandal not come out I think it would have been close.
Heck of a job, Comey!
Normally, the incumbent has an advantage, but I think it wanes when the same party is there too long, like with Bush 1. Hillary will have to overcome another, bitter primary challenge as well. And against someone like Ryan, she won't be able to run solely on how bad the opponent is.
Most agree, these two would lose to anyone but each other. Well, that is who the winner will face in 2020.
While Presidencies successes or failure are often blurred by the next administration or previous administration the 12 year mark won't really be debatable. The Democrats will live or die on what has occurred (at least from the POTUS position) at the point. The bleed over point is well passed. About the only thing they can do is point to congress for any problems.
If Trump wins, well, nuclear winter, zombie apocalypse. Dogs and cats living together.
Clinton: 79.05%
Trump: 20.62%
Quote: WizardI predict whoever wins will be a one-term president. Let me quote the betting odds one last time (I think):
Demographics are changing
Repubs have been living on the white vote
Reagan 56% of the white vote and 44 states
Rommney beat Reagan in the white vote category, 59% and more whites voted in 2012 then 1980
but
Rommney only took 24 states
The key demographic , Every four years the American electorate is two percentage points less white
There is zero value betting anything other than the generic D or R.
Betting on Paul Ryan or anyone to unseat whoever wins is like betting on Dak Prescott to make the Hall-of-Fame. There are certainly realistic scenarios where it might happen. The road is just too long with too many chances to fail along the way.
Ryan, Pence, Kasich all spent this election making their cases for 2020. Scott Walker was one of the leaders when he dropped out and could return. Maybe McMullin comes close in Utah and becomes an early favorite. Many current unknowns will emerge: Sandoval would have had my full support before he raised taxes by $1 billion. Hillary could prove to be hugely unpopular, but a third party candidate ends up handing her a second win. And of course Trump could still pull it out today and ruin any chance for any other R in four years.
Today's results also have a huge impact. If Hillary beats her poll numbers by a big margin, that means the D demographics will be very hard to overcome. If it's closer than expected it means the D hold on mid-west cities has been lost. The President may or may not have much influence over the economy and terrorism, but those things will have a huge impact on who wins four years from now.
Quote: TomGBetting the 2020 Election:
There is zero value betting anything other than the generic D or R.
Precisely. Look at the poll at the top of this thread: Donald Trump isn't even on it. No one could have predicted what a train wreck this election would be 3 years ago.
Anything can happen.
Quote: ams288Precisely. Look at the poll at the top of this thread: Donald Trump isn't even on it. No one could have predicted what a train wreck this election would be 3 years ago.
Anything can happen.
Hey now. I remind everyone of the dead Bulgarian prophet,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2012/11/08/fair-warning-bulgarian-prophet-says-obama-will-be-americas-last-president/
Back in 2012 it would have been interpreted as Obama declaring himself dictator. But like a true oracle prediction the meaning was not clear. Donald probably is going not accept defeat and declare himself President.
The Supreme Court will split 4/4 on the issue leaving us in limbo. (thanks Republicans for not giving us 9 judges)
Quote: rxwineBy the way, a serious question, doesn't leaving an even amount of judges leave us constitutionally at a dead end if a really really serious issue came up dividing the country and they split on it?
No. If there is a tie, the lower court ruling stands.
Quote: SOOPOOI think if Hillary loses she goes back to giving paid speeches, only change is that her asking price will likely double. I see no future for her in any elected position, or even appointed one. That is IF she loses. I expect her to be elected President. And with the changing demographics, I expect GWB to be the last Republican President for many a decade.
All the Republicans have to do to regain control of all parts of govt is dump the fringe priorities, both social and alt-right, and return to socially progressive, fiscally conservative platforms of the pre-Reagan era. They will represent about 60-65% of mainstream America.
Once in office,.they would have to collaborate and cooperate where possible while protecting core values and picking their battles. Not.such a stretch, as they proved for decades before Gingrich / Hastert / Boehner /McConnell made it policy to be obstructionist party hacks over the best interests of responsible governance.
Good government finds a way to serve the people while providing as few new laws and restrictions as possible. Which is why we have bad government; they lost sight of their true purpose a long time ago.
Quote: AyecarumbaNo. If there is a tie, the lower court ruling stands.
That slipped my mind. Well, what if everyone else was dead? (ok nevermind)
Quote: WizardI predict whoever wins will be a one-term president. Let me quote the betting odds one last time (I think):
Clinton: 79.05%
Trump: 20.62%
Sorry, it won't be the last one. Betfair is still taking action. Here is the latest as of 10:50 AM Vegas time:
HC: 82.3%
DT: 17.7%
hehe.. Don't worry... Kiefer Sutherland's got it under control...Quote: rxwineThat slipped my mind. Well, what if everyone else was dead? (ok nevermind)
Quote: WizardSorry, it won't be the last one. Betfair is still taking action. Here is the latest as of 10:50 AM Vegas time:
HC: 82.3%
DT: 17.7%
2:50 PM Vegas time
HC: 85.1%
DT: 14.9%
HC: 69.7%
DT: 28.6%
Quote: Wizard6:15 PM Vegas time
HC: 69.7%
DT: 28.6%
Should have bet thru Paddy Power, I heard they paid on Hillary 2 weeks ago.
Quote: Wizard6:15 PM Vegas time
HC: 69.7%
DT: 28.6%
Virtually dead even a moment ago. Decimal odds 1.99 Clinton 2.02 Trump.
Over $250m bet on this market.
I'm preparing my apology speech to all those who may have followed my advice.
Most people don't care about abortion either way and see bad sides to each side. If it comes off the table, you're really going to have to grab the middle to be a ruling party. Abortion has been a hostage of both parties and used as a tool to ignore the majority of the population. This might wind up destroying the Republican party and the Democratic party and I'm fine with that.Quote: beachbumbabsAll the Republicans have to do to regain control of all parts of govt is dump the fringe priorities, both social and alt-right, and return to socially progressive, fiscally conservative platforms of the pre-Reagan era. They will represent about 60-65% of mainstream America.
Once in office,.they would have to collaborate and cooperate where possible while protecting core values and picking their battles. Not.such a stretch, as they proved for decades before Gingrich / Hastert / Boehner /McConnell made it policy to be obstructionist party hacks over the best interests of responsible governance.
Good government finds a way to serve the people while providing as few new laws and restrictions as possible. Which is why we have bad government; they lost sight of their true purpose a long time ago.
Quote: WizardDT 78.4%.
I'm preparing my apology speech to all those who may have followed my advice.
Your sig line doesn't imply you will win every time. Hope you practiced good money management. That's what's important when you don't win every time.
And that's my advice!
Quote: rxwineYour sig line doesn't imply you will win every time. Hope you practiced good money management. That's what's important when you don't win every time.
And that's my advice!
Yes, thanks, that's true. I'm going to lose waaaaaaaaay more in the market than my bets.
Stick a fork in it -- the night is over. Congratulations Donald. Pass the crow and the humble pie.
You don't owe anyone an apology.Quote: WizardDT 78.4%.
I'm preparing my apology speech to all those who may have followed my advice.
Quote: onenickelmiracleYou don't owe anyone an apology.
Agree. Secret Trumpers owe pollsters an apology.
Hillary is the one who owes an apology for running and cheating Bernie Sanders knowing she and Bill had so much baggage.Quote: 777Agree. Secret Trumpers owe pollsters an apology.
Quote: WizardYes, thanks, that's true. I'm going to lose waaaaaaaaay more in the market than my bets.
The difference being your market losses tomorrow will recover. Do you really think the US Economy rolls over and dies with a Trump Administration? Wake up, this country's economic engine is way bigger than Trump or Clinton. Stay the course, your equity investments will be just fine...at least your US Equity Investments!!
Quote: ParadigmThe difference being your market losses tomorrow will recover. Do you really think the US Economy rolls over and dies with a Trump Administration? Wake up, this country's economic engine is way bigger than Trump or Clinton. Stay the course, your equity investments will be just fine...at least your US Equity Investments!!
After tonight, I'm going to go silent on the political and economic predictions for a while. All I'll say is that I'm going to just do nothing and hold my position.
Quote: onenickelmiracleHillary is the one who owes an apology for running and cheating Bernie Sanders knowing she and Bill had so much baggage.
There is no evidence of Hillary's cheating. Hillary and Bill's so called "baggage" is nothing compare to Trump's racist, bigot, sexist behaviors.
Applying your logic, then one can also reasonably claim that those who vote for Trump owns the nation an apology for putting a racist, bigot, sexist and rapist to a POTUS position.
Quote: WizardAfter tonight, I'm going to go silent on the political and economic predictions for a while. All I'll say is that I'm going to just do nothing and hold my position.
I think the stock market will recover and you will be fine in the long term.
Quote: MaxPenI'm offering CLINTON +500. Any takers?
Do you have $10,000? Call Mitt Romney if you do.
I asked you 2 times if I should load up, I think you avoided that question. I couldn't make up my mind because everything Max was saying. I didn't want to bet anything significant.Quote: WizardDT 78.4%.
I'm preparing my apology speech to all those who may have followed my advice.
However I think we do have a bet. I know I have a bet with someone other than Max. However I won that bet.
Quote: AxelWolfI asked you 2 times if I should load up, I think you avoided that question. I couldn't make up my mind because everything Max was saying. I didn't want to bet anything significant.
However I think we do have a bet. I know I have a bet with someone other than Max. However I won that bet.
You have 20 % of Mike's action on a 2-1 bet.
Quote: WizardWilliam Hill is now accepting bets on the 2016 Election. Here are the odds.
Name Pays Hillary Clinton 2 Marco Rubio 6 Jeb Bush 9 Chris Christie 10 Andrew Cuomo 12 Paul Ryan 16 Condoleeza Rice 20 Deval Patrick 20 Elizabeth Warren 20 Mark Warner 20 Martin O'Malley 20 Rahm Emmanuel 20 Rand Paul 20 Bob McDonnell 25 Cory Booker 25 Rob Portman 25 Jon Huntsman 28 Joe Biden 33 Michael Bloomberg 33 Mitt Romney 33 Sam Graves 33 Susana Martinez 33 Amy Klobuchar 40 Scott Walker 40 Bobby Jindal 50 David Petraeus 50 Mike Huckabee 50 Rick Santorum 50 Sarah Palin 50 Mike Pence 66 Dennis Kucinich 100 Eric Cantor 100 Evan Bayh 100 Herman Cain 100 John Kasich 100 John Thune 100 Julian Castro 100 Kathleen Sebelius 100 Kay Hagan 100 Mia Love 100 Michelle Obama 100 Newt Gingrich 100 Rick Perry 100 Tim Kaine 100
I'd like to keep this thread focused on betting the election, as opposed to the election itself. Let me start by saying that they are taking a lot of juice out of these odds. The overall house advantage is 42.3%.
The question for the poll is who do you THINK is the best bet at these odds?
And nowhere on this list was Trump. I wonder what his odds were at the time?
Quote: AxelWolf@RS Start at Home Depot, Lowes or U-hall?
Is the idea is so we can sell construction products to Team Trump in efforts of building the Great Wall, while supplying workers for the job, too?
They can Build the wall on the way out.Quote: RSIs the idea is so we can sell construction products to Team Trump in efforts of building the Great Wall, while supplying workers for the job, too?
Quote: AxelWolfI asked you 2 times if I should load up, I think you avoided that question. I couldn't make up my mind because everything Max was saying. I didn't want to bet anything significant.
Yes, that was pretty much my position. I thought HC was the better bet and personally lost about $7,000 on her. In fact, here are is a screenshot of my bets at 5 dimes:
Click image for larger version.
I bet almost every dollar of the $9,500 in my account. Of that, I lost $5085. I also lost about $2,000 to friends. If it is of any consolation to myself, I've bet much more in past elections and am still way up on election betting. I've bet them all, big, since Clinton/Dole in 96. One thing that held me back from betting huge this election is what I've said many times -- Since the first televised debates, of Nixon/Kennedy in 1960, the more charismatic candidate has won every time. I thought that trend would end this time. It didn't.
One consolation is that S&P futures are not down as much as when I went to bed. While I slept, I made more there than I lost on the election.
To anyone who bet HC because of me, I apologize. Hopefully there wen't many. I don't know of a single one for sure.
Now, let me get back to licking my wounds.
