Betting the 2016 Election
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34 members have voted
Quote: MaxPenII would be more impressed if you could provide evidence that these betting odds have any relevancy to outcomes politically related.
What better indicator is there? If you think the odds are wrong -- then bet.
Quote: WizardThe lead balloon keeps sinking. Hours after debate 2:
Trump: 19.8%
Clinton: 78.4%
Do these translate into actual money line odds being offered by anyone? This would be something like Clinton -390 and Trump +410 if it was a fair bet, correct?
I'd like to offer my own money lines on election-related events:
Assuming Trump loses, he says the election was "rigged": -500,000*
* send me a million bucks via PayPal and you'll get a crisp $2 bill on Nov. 10!
Trump realizes he's left some people out, posts ethnic slurs against Eskimos on Twitter ("stupid seal-blubber eaters!") +1800
Number of times Trump mentions Hillary's emails between now and Election Day: 4,265 OV/UN -110
Number of Paul Ryan endorsements/unendorsements/re-endorsements/re-unendorsements/etc. of Trump between now and Election Day: 10 OV/UN -110
Live video available on YouTube of Republican Senator/Congressman/governor being asked if he/she still supports Trump and projectile vomiting instead of answering: +450
All bets will be handled using the Trump business model.
Quote: WizardThe lead balloon keeps sinking. Hours after debate 2:
Trump: 19.8%
Clinton: 78.4%
I give him a -99.73% chance.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikDo these translate into actual money line odds being offered by anyone? This would be something like Clinton -390 and Trump +410 if it was a fair bet, correct?
I'd like to offer my own money lines on election-related events:
Assuming Trump loses, he says the election was "rigged": -500,000*
* send me a million bucks via PayPal and you'll get a crisp $2 bill on Nov. 10!
Trump realizes he's left some people out, posts ethnic slurs against Eskimos on Twitter ("stupid seal-blubber eaters!") +1800
Number of times Trump mentions Hillary's emails between now and Election Day: 4,265 OV/UN -110
Number of Paul Ryan endorsements/unendorsements/re-endorsements/re-unendorsements/etc. of Trump between now and Election Day: 10 OV/UN -110
Live video available on YouTube of Republican Senator/Congressman/governor being asked if he/she still supports Trump and projectile vomiting instead of answering: +450
All bets will be handled using the Trump business model.
Betfair is a betting exchange. People put up odds and wait for someone to accept their action. So yes, it is a money line.
Currently Clinton is 1.27 to back 1.28 to lay which is -370 & -357 respectively. Pretty simple to convert to a percentage as Wizard has done.
Quote: ams288The comparisons of Trump to Brexit are so dumb I don't even know where to begin...
As far as betting goes, yes, not comparable in the slightest. As far as the phenomenon that drives/drove both, virtually identical: xenophobia combined with mass stupidity. An unfortunate and eminently avoidable flaw of democracy, letting the knuckle-draggers (or, as the Brits would say, the berks and wankers) have a vote.
It is worth noting that the immediate pre-Brexit polls showed that Brexit had a far better chance than Trump has now. Brexit passing was a mild surprise. Trump winning would be a (hideous) shocker.
I heard somebody say yesterday morning during my breakfast at the Old Men Bloviating Coffee Shop that he might as well bet all his money on Trump, because if Hillary wins, the country will be destroyed and money won't be worth anything anyway. I guess that if he really thinks that, there's no downside for him and he should grab those 4-1 odds while he can.
Political betting is interesting. Money is used to try and manipulate desired action from the public. This will fail just like BREXIT.
Quote: MaxPenA lot of money went on Hillary because people didn't think. They tried to grab a pussy and came up empty.
Political betting is interesting. Money is used to try and manipulate desired action from the public. This will fail just like BREXIT.
Well, this is the point where someone asks you to put your money where your mouth is. I'm sure that there are many people here, myself included, who would be happy to bet with you. Given your certainty, you should be laying 10-1 odds on Trump, but I'll be generous and offer you even money.
Of course, also given your certainty, I would expect that you've already emptied the savings account, mortgaged the farm, and bet every last nickel on Trump at those juicy 4-1 odds. I mean, wow--quadruple your net worth? How can you resist that siren song? Take advantage of the fact that you're the only one in the world who KNOWS that Trump's gonna win!
Quote: JoeshlabotnikWell, this is the point where someone asks you to put your money where your mouth is. I'm sure that there are many people here, myself included, who would be happy to bet with you. Given your certainty, you should be laying 10-1 odds on Trump, but I'll be generous and offer you even money.
Of course, also given your certainty, I would expect that you've already emptied the savings account, mortgaged the farm, and bet every last nickel on Trump at those juicy 4-1 odds. I mean, wow--quadruple your net worth? How can you resist that siren song? Take advantage of the fact that you're the only one in the world who KNOWS that Trump's gonna win!
I do have a significant amount of money where my mouth is. Very little of the total action pays even money. Certainly, not candidate vs. candidate. Hillary supporters are being way to kind.
Quote: Wizard
Let's have another look. As of Oct 12:
Clinton: 83.7%
Trump: 15.4%
I wonder how this would translate to expected electoral votes. I'm sure that Betfair and its ilk haven't been around long enough for there to be a usable data set.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikI wonder how this would translate to expected electoral votes. I'm sure that Betfair and its ilk haven't been around long enough for there to be a usable data set.
Betfair has some point spread props on the electoral college but they buy and lay prices are pretty far apart, meaning nobody is agreeing on a bet.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikI wonder how this would translate to expected electoral votes. I'm sure that Betfair and its ilk haven't been around long enough for there to be a usable data set.
An 83% chance "should" give a fair over/under on Clinton to be about 338. Not sure how that should be adjusted based on a 2016 map compared to other years
(I would bet over, but I also like Hillary at -450 right now)
Quote: WizardBetfair has some point spread props on the electoral college but they buy and lay prices are pretty far apart, meaning nobody is agreeing on a bet.
Also, based on your reported 15% Trump chances, if the two candidates were football teams, Hillary would be about a 14-point favorite, correct?
lolQuote: JoeshlabotnikJourney: "Don't stop...belieeeeevin'..."
Quote: JoeshlabotnikAlso, based on your reported 15% Trump chances, if the two candidates were football teams, Hillary would be about a 14-point favorite, correct?
Not quite. More like 13.
I've bet every election since 1996 pretty big. Most of the time I favor laying odds on the favorite. This is one of those times. It is easy to say that I wish I had bet more when I had to lay only 2 to 1 on Clinton, but I can't go back in time. Even if you have to lay 5 or 6 to 1 now, I think it is a good bet. There is no just no viable road Trump has to win. It seems from recent statements that he is going to go down in a blaze of glory. I predict by election day it will look similar to Obama/McCain, where you have to pay a ridiculous price, like laying 12 to 1, on the favorite.
Just a prediction. I could be wrong. Just laid -560 on Clinton this morning, so I am putting my money where my mouth is.
Quote: WizardNot quite. More like 13.
I've bet every election since 1996 pretty big. Most of the time I favor laying odds on the favorite. This is one of those times. It is easy to say that I wish I had bet more when I had to lay only 2 to 1 on Clinton, but I can't go back in time. Even if you have to lay 5 or 6 to 1 now, I think it is a good bet. There is no just no viable road Trump has to win. It seems from recent statements that he is going to go down in a blaze of glory. I predict by election day it will look similar to Obama/McCain, where you have to pay a ridiculous price, like laying 12 to 1, on the favorite.
Just a prediction. I could be wrong. Just laid -560 on Clinton this morning, so I am putting my money where my mouth is.
Will you be running an "Electoral College Prediction Contest" for this election?
Quote: FDEAD3709Been about 3 weeks without a post from the leader EvenBob. Anybody else expect him not to post until after the votes are counted?
Maybe he's taking his self-induced months long exile early this election? He took Mitt Romney's loss hard in 2012 and disappeared for a while.
Quote: FDEAD3709Been about 3 weeks without a post from the leader EvenBob. Anybody else expect him not to post until after the votes are counted?
He is pretty active over at DT. However, I haven't seen a prediction there either. I don't blame him after he didn't too to well with Obama/Romney.
Quote: IbeatyouracesLet's be realistic here, Trump has ZIP, ZERO, NADA, chance!
Well, that's why the Wizard is willing to lay heavy odds against him. -560 is a good price when you're betting against the impossible.
My only question is, why was this race EVER remotely close? Shouldn't Clinton have been -5000 from the get-go, running against an insane fraud?
Quote: IbeatyouracesLet's be realistic here, Trump has ZIP, ZERO, NADA, chance!
I hope you're taking advantage of your belief and betting the other way.
Quote: WizardYes. If you feel the odds have moved, I'll let you back out. It might be better to text me so that there are no arguments about time lag. Agreed to pay with a $2 bill.
The odds have moved. But the bet is booked. I would consider the $100 I'd need to give you the best C note I've ever spent!
Quote: SOOPOOThe odds have moved. But the bet is booked. I would consider the $100 I'd need to give you the best C note I've ever spent!
You're a gentleman and a scholar. Thank you.
Sky bet has this as a landslide
Clinton at 1/9
They have Trump at 11/2
on the flip side
Net Bet has things closer
Clinton 2/11
Trump 3/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
Quote: WizardLet's have another look. As of Oct 12:
Clinton: 83.7%
Trump: 15.4%
Time for an update. As of Oct 17:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 15.9%
Trump has shown slight improvement in the last five days. I still say it is a good time to bet Clinton.
Quote: WizardTime for an update. As of Oct 17:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 15.9%
Trump has shown slight improvement in the last five days. I still say it is a good time to bet Clinton.
Are you basing that advice on the premise that Trump's chances will, that recent blip notwithstanding, continue to decline as Election Day approaches?
I would expect that the third debate will push the line in one direction or the other. What I don't know is which way--but my own personal anti-scientific biased data say that Clinton will be a prohibitive favorite in a very few days. I think that Trump's crew viewed the debates as his last chance to get back in the race, and when he explodes onstage (again) on Wednesday, I expect whatever uncommitted money is out there to land on Clinton, much in the same way that a team losing by five touchdowns on Monday Night Football tends to get shunned by bettors the next week.
Quote: WizardTime for an update. As of Oct 17:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 15.9%
Trump has shown slight improvement in the last five days. I still say it is a good time to bet Clinton.
I must say that I thought Trump put in his best performance on the third debate. Will it change anything? 35 minutes after it ended here are the Betfair odds:
Clinton: 83.7%
Trump: 15.9%
So, not much difference. After tonight I tend to think the odds will stay about the same until the election, but I could be wrong.
Quote: WizardI must say that I thought Trump put in his best performance on the third debate. Will it change anything? 35 minutes after it ended here are the Betfair odds:
Clinton: 83.7%
Trump: 15.9%
So, not much difference. After tonight I tend to think the odds will stay about the same until the election, but I could be wrong.
That probably reflects the perception that at this point, just about every voter has made up his/her mind. Also, the debate was pretty standard stuff--Trump's insults and false statements, Hillary's gamely trying to actually discuss policy. I didn't see anything that would change anyone's mind. I think this was Trump's best debate because he wasn't quite so Trump this time.
What I would like to bet is against the electoral college spread, like Hillary -65 or something like that. That would at least have me watching the election results into the wee hours :)
Quote: JoeshlabotnikThat probably reflects the perception that at this point, just about every voter has made up his/her mind. Also, the debate was pretty standard stuff--Trump's insults and false statements, Hillary's gamely trying to actually discuss policy. I didn't see anything that would change anyone's mind. I think this was Trump's best debate because he wasn't quite so Trump this time.
What I would like to bet is against the electoral college spread, like Hillary -65 or something like that. That would at least have me watching the election results into the wee hours :)
Trump +74.5 3.3 to back, 3.45 to lay
Clinton -74.5 1.41 to back 1.44 to lay
Also have +/- 24.5, 49.5 & 99.5 markets.
Not much liquidity in these markets yet though which is why you see the big differences between back & lay prices. Wait till the days before the election for a better market.
Quote: AussieTrump +74.5 3.3 to back, 3.45 to lay
Clinton -74.5 1.41 to back 1.44 to lay
Also have +/- 24.5, 49.5 & 99.5 markets.
Not much liquidity in these markets yet though which is why you see the big differences between back & lay prices. Wait till the days before the election for a better market.
Thanks. I'd be curious as to what the number would be for prices closer to even money, though.
I'd be willing to bet Clinton -65 electoral votes at even money.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikThanks. I'd be curious as to what the number would be for prices closer to even money, though.
I'd be willing to bet Clinton -65 electoral votes at even money.
To get even money I extrapolate that you would have to go Clinton -115 or so. At +99.5 you still get plus odds to bet on Trump.
Quote: SOOPOOTo get even money I extrapolate that you would have to go Clinton -115 or so. At +99.5 you still get plus odds to bet on Trump.
They just put up a +/- 124.5 market in the last few hours. This will take some time to get more liquidity and settle around a stable price but is likely to be even money or just under.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikThanks. I'd be curious as to what the number would be for prices closer to even money, though.
I'd be willing to bet Clinton -65 electoral votes at even money.
I'd consider that action, but I want the Clinton -65 side. Are you interested? If not, how many votes do you want to take the Trump side?
Quote: AyecarumbaI'd consider that action, but I want the Clinton -65 side. Are you interested? If not, how many votes do you want to take the Trump side?
After the events of the last two nights, I might want Trump +471. I had thought that while Trump was a virtual certainty to butcher the debate, it wouldn't make much difference. Apparently, I was wrong--the debate hurt him in the polls. And now he went all nasty at a comedy roast dinner. People were watching that, too.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikAfter the events of the last two nights, I might want Trump +471. I had thought that while Trump was a virtual certainty to butcher the debate, it wouldn't make much difference. Apparently, I was wrong--the debate hurt him in the polls. And now he went all nasty at a comedy roast dinner. People were watching that, too.
MSM and SuperPac funded polls are meaningless. Paying attention to polls intended as tools to sway public opinion is a waste of time. Carter was smoking Reagan in the polls and look what happened there. To bad Hillary got so flustered at the dinner and outed Obama as a Muslim. He has tried hard to keep that in the closet.
Quote: MaxPenMSM and SuperPac funded polls are meaningless. Paying attention to polls intended as tools to sway public opinion is a waste of time. Carter was smoking Reagan in the polls and look what happened there. To bad Hillary got so flustered at the dinner and outed Obama as a Muslim. He has tried hard to keep that in the closet.
Polls that report results that MaxPen doesn't like are meaningless. All 22 of them. And apparently Max doesn't understand what a joke is. Maybe he still thinks that Obama is a secret Muslim??? Wow...
Discarding Max for the moment, it may come down to the point where ANY bet on Trump would be a bad idea. it's beginning to look like he could lose all but a few redneck flyover states. Certainly, the electoral college map will give us all valuable information--a list of places to avoid.
Quote: WizardAccording to Betfair, Trump is still holding steady at 15.9% chance of winning. I don't see how they are even that high and recommend laying the odds on Clinton.
interesting thought, though--if Betfair is a British site, wouldn't you be wagering in pounds, and therefore get paid in pounds, which will probably be worth less just after Election Day than they are now?
Quote: Joeshlabotnikinteresting thought, though--if Betfair is a British site, wouldn't you be wagering in pounds, and therefore get paid in pounds, which will probably be worth less just after Election Day than they are now?
You wager and are paid in whatever currency you register with. I use AUD for example. They hedge so there is no currency risk so it doesn't make any difference that someone using AUD is matching a bet with someone using GBP.
I don't know enough about betting elections. I have bets on this and and I can't even remember what they are now.Quote: WizardAccording to Betfair, Trump is still holding steady at 15.9% chance of winning. I don't see how they are even that high and recommend laying the odds on Clinton.
How much can you get down at that price? Would you suggest loading up? Can someone bet 30k with a reputable casino at that price?
What if Trump gets a dam safety?
Can I blame you if I lose money betting on her?
Quote: JoeshlabotnikAfter the events of the last two nights, I might want Trump +471. I had thought that while Trump was a virtual certainty to butcher the debate, it wouldn't make much difference. Apparently, I was wrong--the debate hurt him in the polls. And now he went all nasty at a comedy roast dinner. People were watching that, too.
I'm curious what it means people were 4x more interested in what trump had to say about Hillary than vice versa.
https://m.youtube.com/channel/UChLtXXpo4Ge1ReTEboVvTDg
Quote: AxelWolfI don't know enough about betting elections. I have bets on this and and I can't even remember what they are now.
How much can you get down at that price? Would you suggest loading up? Can someone bet 30k with a reputable casino at that price?
What if Trump gets a dam safety?
Can I blame you if I lose money betting on her?
Currently you can get approx US$70k at that price (1.21). Then you can get another approx $130k on at 1.2. Pretty much ask to bet as much as you want and eventually it will get matched.
Quote: WizardI must say that I thought Trump put in his best performance on the third debate. Will it change anything? 35 minutes after it ended here are the Betfair odds:
Clinton: 83.7%
Trump: 15.9%
Time for an update. As of late 10/24/16:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 16.4%.
The prices have been holding steady for a while. While the polls all point to an easy Clinton victory, I think Trump is counting on his legions voting in greater percentages than Clinton's. I must say, I can remember every election back to Carter/Ford and have never seen such a devoted fan base as Trump's, that that includes Reagan both times.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm curious what it means people were 4x more interested in what trump had to say about Hillary than vice versa.
https://m.youtube.com/channel/UChLtXXpo4Ge1ReTEboVvTDg
Word spread pretty quick about Trumps performance. For example, I was at a beer tasting and the main guy came in a few minutes late. He told how Trump had gotten booed at the dinner. I'd wager most people at the tasting went home and watched him. I know I did.
Load up on Clinton?Quote: WizardTime for an update. As of late 10/24/16:
Clinton: 83.0%
Trump: 16.4%.
The prices have been holding steady for a while. While the polls all point to an easy Clinton victory, I think Trump is counting on his legions voting in greater percentages than Clinton's. I must say, I can remember every election back to Carter/Ford and have never seen such a devoted fan base as Trump's, that that includes Reagan both times.
