Wizard
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Wizard
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May 16th, 2013 at 3:57:32 PM permalink
From previous discussions about Megabucks and Powerball, I've stated that demand has an exponential relationship with the jackpot size. Based on the current jackpot size of $550 million, I estimate 1.32 winners in the next draw, on Saturday. However, it will certainly grow by then, inducing even more demand.

I find that the optimal jackpot size to play is $475 million. After that the hysterical demand increases the competition, lowering value.

At a jackpot of $550 million I find the value of a $2 ticket to be $2.11, before considering taxes and annuity. If we assume that 50% of the jackpot is lost to taxes, and another 50% to the annuity, then the value of that $2 ticket I show to be $0.80.

I must say that I'm hoping nobody wins on Saturday. If this happens, I think a jackpot exceeding a billion would be possible for May 22, which would be interesting to see.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:02:52 PM permalink
That would be insane. I wish there was a way to do it so that 550 winners could win 1 million rather than one winner winning 550 million. 1 million to 550 people would be life changing and probably a huge boost to the local economy. 550 million to one person is overkill and seems like a waste to me. I'd even prefer 1010 winners of $500,000

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Nareed
Nareed
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:06:14 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I must say that I'm hoping nobody wins on Saturday. If this happens, I think a jackpot exceeding a billion would be possible for May 22, which would be interesting to see.



How about buying Powerball tickets as a WoVCon ]I[ activity, if th ejackpot reaches $1 billion? I seem to recall it can be bought in Arizona, which is about a very loud shout away from the Strip, right? ;)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
rainman
rainman
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:08:30 PM permalink
I always prefer to win more than less. Am I mistaken or is Wizard rooting against me winning?
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:13:09 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I'd even prefer 1010 winners of $500,000


They wouldn't sell as many tickets though. $500K just doesn't sound as 'sexy' as $500 million.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:21:12 PM permalink
I'm not so sure about that. Advertise that 1,000 people will win $500,000 and you'd probably have a frenzy.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Nareed
Nareed
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:22:45 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

That would be insane. I wish there was a way to do it so that 550 winners could win 1 million rather than one winner winning 550 million. 1 million to 550 people would be life changing and probably a huge boost to the local economy. 550 million to one person is overkill and seems like a waste to me. I'd even prefer 1010 winners of $500,000



Be careful what you wish for.

In this interview with ER physician Doctor Doug McGuff, winning the lottery is listed as a risk for winding up in the ER:

http://www.philosophyinaction.com/archive/2013-05-08.html

Here's a text lisitng from Dr. McGuff's blog: http://www.bodybyscience.net/home.html/?p=740

Briefly:
Quote:

12. Don’t play the lottery…you might win. Any unearned wealth, or wealth that is disproportionate to the objective value you provide will destroy you. Lottery winners and Sports/Movie stars share a common bond of disproportionate rates of depression, addiction, and suicide.



Yes, I know I proposed buying lotto tickets.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:27:41 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

That would be insane. I wish there was a way to do it so that 550 winners could win 1 million rather than one winner winning 550 million. 1 million to 550 people would be life changing and probably a huge boost to the local economy. 550 million to one person is overkill and seems like a waste to me. I'd even prefer 1010 winners of $500,000



That is, of course, very logical. However, the average lottery player can't conceive of the difference in odds between the 1 in 175,223,510 of winning the current Powerball and something more attainable, like 1 in one million. However, it is easy to visualize the difference between one million dollars and 550 million. One million would be nice, don't get me wrong, but lots of people have a worth over a million. However, anything in the 9 figures is really rich. So, I think your way would definitely result in more happiness, but less ticket sales.

Quote: Nareed

How about buying Powerball tickets as a WoVCon ]I[ activity, if th ejackpot reaches $1 billion? I seem to recall it can be bought in Arizona, which is about a very loud shout away from the Strip, right? ;)



Count me OUT. Before considering the bad value, the lines at the places near the Nevada border can take hours to wait through.

Quote: rainman

I always prefer to win more than less. Am I mistaken or is Wizard rooting against me winning?



Give me a new ivory back-scratcher if you win and I'll pull for you, and only you, to win.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:28:29 PM permalink
I'm ok with that risk. It's a form of natural selection.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Nareed
Nareed
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May 16th, 2013 at 4:36:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Count me OUT. Before considering the bad value, the lines at the places near the Nevada border can take hours to wait through.



Sure, but it's a holiday. People will be vacationing in Vegas. Oh, wait...

How about Tuesday 28th early in the morning after the holiday?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal

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