Your baseball views
March 28th, 2011 at 10:56:50 PM
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I have a question about the baseball season. I love betting sports online but I am the worst when it comes to picking baseball games. I'm a big New York yankee fan. I think it would be a great idea if people shared there views on baseball games during the season. I never bet on the Yankees but i would be glad to give my opinion on the games. If you have a favorite team you watch daily, it would be great to get your view on the game. I'm in no way talking about selling baseball picks. I just thought that different views from people who follow a specific team could be helpful to people who bet online. I'm not even sure if something like this would be permitted on this site. If it is against the rules than just disregard this question. But if it is permitted, I would love to hear what people think about this idea.
March 28th, 2011 at 11:55:35 PM
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I don't think your idea is bad.
I do think that there aren't enough sports fans/bettors on this site to make this exercise useful.
I also think that there is no "secret" information about baseball that a fan knows that "vegas" doesn't know. Sometimes in college sports I think there might be ways to use information. Back to baseball - the Wizard has some interesting stuff on the odds site dealing with "fair" odds for run lines, and the whole home underdog thing that is pretty useful.
Finally, I've done real well with futures betting on baseball. I've made two "big" bets (For me, big is $100 or more, don't laugh) and two small "bets" of $50. I'm 2-0 in big bets, 1-1 on small bets.
If I had money/job, I'd love to put money on these wagers currently on Bodog:
$50 Minnesota Twins OVER 86 Wins
$100 N.Y. Mets UNDER 77 Wins
I also love betting on the player props. I know this sounds weird, but the last few times I've talked about why I like certain bets on Bodog, they've disappeared. So I'll put my picks out there, and not why. (I know, I'm probably paranoid...)
$100 Carlos Zambrano OVER 12 Wins
I do think that there aren't enough sports fans/bettors on this site to make this exercise useful.
I also think that there is no "secret" information about baseball that a fan knows that "vegas" doesn't know. Sometimes in college sports I think there might be ways to use information. Back to baseball - the Wizard has some interesting stuff on the odds site dealing with "fair" odds for run lines, and the whole home underdog thing that is pretty useful.
Finally, I've done real well with futures betting on baseball. I've made two "big" bets (For me, big is $100 or more, don't laugh) and two small "bets" of $50. I'm 2-0 in big bets, 1-1 on small bets.
If I had money/job, I'd love to put money on these wagers currently on Bodog:
$50 Minnesota Twins OVER 86 Wins
$100 N.Y. Mets UNDER 77 Wins
I also love betting on the player props. I know this sounds weird, but the last few times I've talked about why I like certain bets on Bodog, they've disappeared. So I'll put my picks out there, and not why. (I know, I'm probably paranoid...)
$100 Carlos Zambrano OVER 12 Wins
March 29th, 2011 at 12:46:44 AM
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Quote: duckston09I have a question about the baseball season. I love betting sports online but I am the worst when it comes to picking baseball games. I'm a big New York yankee fan. I think it would be a great idea if people shared there views on baseball games during the season. I never bet on the Yankees but i would be glad to give my opinion on the games. If you have a favorite team you watch daily, it would be great to get your view on the game. I'm in no way talking about selling baseball picks. I just thought that different views from people who follow a specific team could be helpful to people who bet online. I'm not even sure if something like this would be permitted on this site. If it is against the rules than just disregard this question. But if it is permitted, I would love to hear what people think about this idea.
Well, it would probably be +EV to bet against the Yankees every game, preferably five minutes before the opening pitch, given that so many ploppies bet on them regardless of the price they have to lay.
I think there's plenty of opportunities to exploit bad baseball lines but you have to be in Vegas in the summer, and trudge from book to book, to do it right. That would be like shoveling dirt in the gulag in winter.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
March 29th, 2011 at 4:48:12 AM
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I have done some analysis on it, but very basic. One thing to do is take a team who is terrible (cough--Pirates-cough cough) and look at their home/away disparity. Last year the Pirates lost over 100 games. But they were very near .500 at home. Look for them to break a home losing streak against say a west coast team traveling east and tired.
Also the average win streak in MLB is about three games. Look for an average team at 4-5 wins who is an favorite. (<100) and bet agsainst them. If you are then right just half the time you are ahead.
I am trying to learn to bet baseball, can't get many good book reccomendations on it so please, let the thread continue!
Also the average win streak in MLB is about three games. Look for an average team at 4-5 wins who is an favorite. (<100) and bet agsainst them. If you are then right just half the time you are ahead.
I am trying to learn to bet baseball, can't get many good book reccomendations on it so please, let the thread continue!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
March 29th, 2011 at 5:57:16 AM
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If you plan on betting baseball, you will need an account with BetJamaica or 5dimes.
If you live in Vegas, frequent The M Casino on a regular basis.
If you live in Vegas, frequent The M Casino on a regular basis.
March 29th, 2011 at 7:19:24 AM
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Sorry. I know its something about a guy called a pitcher who throws things at a batter who is given a stick with which to defend himself and there is something about running around in a highly stylized manner accompanied by sliding and tagging and stuff like that. There are leagues and teams and probably conferences... there always seems to be conferences though I've not quite figured out where they confer or when. Oh... yeah... there also innings and chewing tobacco. I'm not quite sure what the betting is about though.
March 29th, 2011 at 8:49:30 AM
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And you forgot the scratching.
March 29th, 2011 at 9:12:50 AM
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Betting on baseball......has to beat watching it!
March 29th, 2011 at 10:21:06 AM
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Quote: dmBetting on baseball......has to beat watching it!
It can actually be pretty interesting if you appreciate the nuances. It can also be as boring as ironing a t-shirt. I much prefer to watch a game live, though the last game I attended--$45 for the ticket, $25 for parking--pretty much cured me of that.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
March 29th, 2011 at 10:26:40 AM
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I love baseball. I have to laugh at that Mets bet since they give my husband an ulcer every year. Maybe if he picked up some cash if they screw up again this year it would ease the pain of the losses a bit.
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
March 29th, 2011 at 10:51:09 AM
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Quote: FarFromVegasI love baseball.
Oh, why did you have to go and say that?
I was getting warmed up to a couple of days of baseball-bashing, and now I can't <pout>
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
March 29th, 2011 at 10:58:32 AM
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Quote: NareedOh, why did you have to go and say that?
I was getting warmed up to a couple of days of baseball-bashing, and now I can't <pout>
Bash away! I'm very thick-skinned, and it's not like it's personal, anyway. I realize baseball is a pathology.
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:02:16 AM
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One way to profit from baseball is to follow the overnight reports from the Swami.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:09:57 AM
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Quote: FarFromVegasBash away! I'm very thick-skinned, and it's not like it's personal, anyway. I realize baseball is a pathology.
Thank you, but I will decline. Part of the fun is watching the B-ball defenders squirm. I've no desire to see you squirm.
You don't also like soccer, do you? :)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
March 29th, 2011 at 11:15:25 AM
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Quote: NareedThank you, but I will decline. Part of the fun is watching the B-ball defenders squirm. I've no desire to see you squirm.
You don't also like soccer, do you? :)
I'm not a defender or a squirmer. Just a watcher.
As far as soccer goes, let's just say I'm glad my son plays baseball and not soccer so I don't have to sit in the stands and pretend to watch a soccer game. Actually, I'm already sick of baseball this year since he's playing on THREE teams this season and the weather has been too cold to make it fun to be there. So please go ahead and pick on baseball. At least you aren't a Red Sox fan--I'd start to question your intelligence. :P
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:19:14 AM
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Quote: FarFromVegasAs far as soccer goes, let's just say I'm glad my son plays baseball and not soccer so I don't have to sit in the stands and pretend to watch a soccer game.
That's good.
Quote:Actually, I'm already sick of baseball this year since he's playing on THREE teams this season and the weather has been too cold to make it fun to be there.
Well, you can ignore the game and focus on something mroe exciting, like watching the grass grow.
Quote:So please go ahead and pick on baseball. At least you aren't a Red Sox fan--I'd start to question your intelligence. :P
Please, do you know how hard it is to match red hosiery with anything?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
March 29th, 2011 at 11:22:47 AM
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Quote: Nareed
Please, do you know how hard it is to match red hosiery with anything?
More than anyone else here! I lived through the 80's...
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
March 29th, 2011 at 11:45:30 AM
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When it comes to betting baseball I have just two words to say -- HOME UNDERDOGS.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 29th, 2011 at 11:47:25 AM
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Quote: WizardWhen it comes to betting baseball I have just two words to say -- HOME UNDERDOGS.
Don't you use these same two words for football?
March 29th, 2011 at 11:49:13 AM
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Quote: PapaChubbyDon't you use these same two words for football?
I remember that. But maybe that was just for playoff games.
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:25:33 PM
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Quote: PapaChubbyDon't you use these same two words for football?
No. In football I believe any underdog will do.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 29th, 2011 at 12:27:37 PM
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Quote: FarFromVegasMore than anyone else here! I lived through the 80's...
Patti Smith of Scandal wore a red dress with sheer, red pantyhose in the "Goodbye to You" video. I never did buy the red hose, sheer or not.
Take a red jacket, black skirt, sheer stockings and red pumps, with a black purse, and at least you're doing something a bit different. But red is not an easy color to match. And good luck figuring out how to wear the red pumps ever again!
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
March 29th, 2011 at 12:42:55 PM
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Quote: FarFromVegasMore than anyone else here! I lived through the 80's...
Hey!, I was 14 to 24 through the eighties, so that is MY decade. It captures perfectly my high school and college years. Not to say you are not a product of the eighties as well, but I'll take you on in eighties trivia any day! I have the 80s edition of Trivial Pursuit.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
March 29th, 2011 at 12:46:47 PM
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Quote: WizardHey!, I was 14 to 24 through the eighties, so that is MY decade. It captures perfectly my high school and college years. Not to say you are not a product of the eighties as well, but I'll take you on in eighties trivia any day! I have the 80s edition of Trivial Pursuit.
I think you, Nareed, and I are all contemporaries.
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
March 29th, 2011 at 12:47:56 PM
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Quote: FarFromVegasI think you, Nareed, and I are all contemporaries.
Where's the beef?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
March 29th, 2011 at 12:51:13 PM
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Quote: NareedWhere's the beef?
Oh, I had to deal with that in high school! The "hot and juicy" was worse, though.
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
March 29th, 2011 at 5:15:16 PM
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Quote: FarFromVegasOh, I had to deal with that in high school!
I can't say for certain I ever saw the actual ad. But it was everywhere else.
Quote:The "hot and juicy" was worse, though.
I don't even know what that is.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
March 29th, 2011 at 6:34:30 PM
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Quote: WizardNo. In football I believe any underdog will do.
Admission of a losing sportsbettor?
March 29th, 2011 at 8:38:51 PM
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Quote: NareedPatti Smith of Scandal wore a red dress with sheer, red pantyhose in the "Goodbye to You" video. I never did buy the red hose, sheer or not.
I had a big crush on her during Scandal's window of popularity in the early 80's. If you look closely on one of their early videos, you'll see Jon Bon Jovi playing guitar. Sadly, then she married John McEnroe & disappeared for 15 years.
FYI - Her name is Patty Smyth, not Patti Smith. There is a Patti Smith who's an older songwriter & is actually in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. I've seen people get them confused before.
Baseball - Bet on the Cardinals when they are at home, with Chris Carpenter pitching, especially if they are in the middle of a losing streak. He's got an excellent history of winning in those situations.
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
March 30th, 2011 at 11:10:35 AM
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Seems crazy to me that folks place bets on season win totals...having to wait 6 months to resolve an even money bet.
March 30th, 2011 at 11:38:25 AM
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Quote: slytherSeems crazy to me that folks place bets on season win totals...having to wait 6 months to resolve an even money bet.
That's actually part of the fun for me. When I had money, or when I get money again, it's fun to put a sizable chunk of money on something, follow it for a few months, and by the time it's resolved, it's like found money.
March 31st, 2011 at 2:31:27 PM
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Quote: Toes14FYI - Her name is Patty Smyth, not Patti Smith. There is a Patti Smith who's an older songwriter & is actually in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. I've seen people get them confused before.
I believe I'm phonetically right all the same :P
About Scandal, I remember just two songs by them "Goodbye to You" and "The Warrior." Both came in a short span of time and then they just vanished.
Quote:Baseball - Bet on the Cardinals when they are at home, with Chris Carpenter pitching, especially if they are in the middle of a losing streak. He's got an excellent history of winning in those situations.
How about when Tomorrow's pitching and Today's catching?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
April 6th, 2011 at 5:18:04 PM
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Quote: AZDuffmanAlso the average win streak in MLB is about three games. Look for an average team at 4-5 wins who is an favorite. (<100) and bet agsainst them. If you are then right just half the time you are ahead.
For the 2010 MLB season I show an average win and lose streak of 2.017
The distribution below. Data from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/
| length | EV | W streaks | relative freq | or less | length | EV | L streaks | relative freq | or less |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 607.750 | 608 | 50.456% | 50.456% | 1 | 607.750 | 608 | 50.456% | 50.456% |
| 2 | 303.813 | 286 | 23.734% | 74.191% | 2 | 303.813 | 301 | 24.979% | 75.436% |
| 3 | 151.875 | 156 | 12.946% | 87.137% | 3 | 151.875 | 140 | 11.618% | 87.054% |
| 4 | 75.922 | 80 | 6.639% | 93.776% | 4 | 75.922 | 72 | 5.975% | 93.029% |
| 5 | 37.953 | 39 | 3.237% | 97.012% | 5 | 37.953 | 44 | 3.651% | 96.680% |
| 6 | 18.973 | 13 | 1.079% | 98.091% | 6 | 18.973 | 14 | 1.162% | 97.842% |
| 7 | 9.484 | 9 | 0.747% | 98.838% | 7 | 9.484 | 13 | 1.079% | 98.921% |
| 8 | 4.741 | 7 | 0.581% | 99.419% | 8 | 4.741 | 6 | 0.498% | 99.419% |
| 9 | 2.370 | 3 | 0.249% | 99.668% | 9 | 2.370 | 3 | 0.249% | 99.668% |
| 10 | 1.185 | 1 | 0.083% | 99.751% | 10 | 1.185 | 3 | 0.249% | 99.917% |
| 11 | 0.592 | 3 | 0.249% | 100.000% | 11 | 0.592 | 0 | 0.000% | 99.917% |
| 12 | 0.296 | 0 | 0.000% | 100.000% | 12 | 0.296 | 1 | 0.083% | 100.000% |
| 13 | 0.148 | 0 | 0.000% | 100.000% | 13 | 0.148 | 0 | 0.000% | 100.000% |
| 14 | 0.074 | 0 | 0.000% | 100.000% | 14 | 0.074 | 0 | 0.000% | 100.000% |
| 15 | 0.037 | 0 | 0.000% | 100.000% | 15 | 0.037 | 0 | 0.000% | 100.000% |
| 1215.25 | 1205 | 100.000% | 1215.25 | 1205 | 100.000% |
I come up with slightly under 2 games for the "average" win streak in MLB.
My stats for win streaks during the 2000s almost matches perfectly the theoritical numbers for streaks.
Win streaks are also related to a teams winning percentage. As are losing streaks related to a teams losing percentage. It is true that both percentages change during the year but as in a random walk they both converge very quickly as do the number of streaks to their ending percentages.
Not really any difference between streaks of a 162 game season and the earlier 154 game season.
162 game MLB season
% avg
0.25 1.331
0.33 1.495
0.4 1.660
0.45 1.809
0.5 1.988
0.55 2.206
0.6 2.477
0.66 2.963
0.7 3.286
0.75 3.927
154 game MLB season
% avg
0.25 1.330
0.33 1.495
0.4 1.659
0.45 1.809
0.5 1.987
0.55 2.205
0.6 2.476
0.66 2.962
0.7 3.284
0.75 3.924
A .500 team has ,on average,
streaks of exactly 1, 20.5 or about 50.31% of the expected total win streaks (40.75)
streaks of 2 or more, 20.25 or about 49.69% of the expected total win streaks
streaks of 3 or more, 10 or about 24.69% of the expected total win streaks
streaks of 4 or more, 5 or about 12.27% of the expected total win streaks
A soon to be entry in my Blog will have more fun MLB stats. I have so many interesting stats, I should write a book.
For now, how about those 1927 Yankees. Since this post is about win streaks here are the win/lose streaks for the '27 Yanks.
110 wins/44 losses .7143 win pct. World Series champs. The Babe hit 60 home runs.
The Yankees also played to a tie (game #3) that did not break a winning streak.
Avg expected win streak 3.44 / actual 3.33
| total win | total lose | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| streak | streaks | length | streaks | streak |
| 6 | 10 | 1 | 23 | 2 |
| 1 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 33 | Total | 32 | 2 |
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 4 | |||
| 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | total losses | 44 | ||
| 110 | total wins |
Some fun stats:
Expected number of win streaks: 31.938 / Actual 33
Expected number of win streaks of exactly 1: 9.27 / Actual 10
Expected number of win streaks of 2 or more: 22.67 / Actual 23
2 or more broken down.
2/ 6.58
3/ 4.67
4/ 3.31
5/ 2.35
6/ 1.67
7/ 1.185
8/ 0.841
9/ 0.597
10/ 0.423
Season Batting averages, hits, home runs and pitching stats are very close to theoretical numbers as though we were dealing with a biased coin toss instead of a game with many skills from many players.
April 6th, 2011 at 5:37:54 PM
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Who's wife gets the first baseman's paycheck ? Naturally, why shouldn't she !
April 7th, 2011 at 3:17:40 PM
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Current MLB streaks.
1) Astros 0-5 vs. Reds 5-0
Gambler's Fallacy says Reds will lose and Astros will win
Hot Hand Fallacy says Reds will win and Astros will lose.
Astros won 3-2. Both streaks BUSTED.
2) Boston 0-5 winless! Ouch Bean Town!
Boston LOST. Now 0-6. Ouch Ouch
Will their lose streak continue? and if yes, for how long???
Tomorrow: Home Dog?
3) Tampa Bay 0-5 winless! (The Manny curse?)
Tampa Bay LOST. Now 0-6.
Will their streak continue? and if yes, for how long???
4) Cleveland current win streak at 4.
5) Texas 6-0 Perfect! They are off to Baltimore where the Orioles just had their 4 game win streak BUSTED.
6) Colorado current win streak is at 4.
7) Seattle has a nice 4 game losing streak currently.
This streak stuff is a lot of work. But fun BUSTING streaks both ways.
1) Astros 0-5 vs. Reds 5-0
Gambler's Fallacy says Reds will lose and Astros will win
Hot Hand Fallacy says Reds will win and Astros will lose.
Astros won 3-2. Both streaks BUSTED.
2) Boston 0-5 winless! Ouch Bean Town!
Boston LOST. Now 0-6. Ouch Ouch
Will their lose streak continue? and if yes, for how long???
Tomorrow: Home Dog?
3) Tampa Bay 0-5 winless! (The Manny curse?)
Tampa Bay LOST. Now 0-6.
Will their streak continue? and if yes, for how long???
4) Cleveland current win streak at 4.
5) Texas 6-0 Perfect! They are off to Baltimore where the Orioles just had their 4 game win streak BUSTED.
6) Colorado current win streak is at 4.
7) Seattle has a nice 4 game losing streak currently.
This streak stuff is a lot of work. But fun BUSTING streaks both ways.
April 7th, 2011 at 3:19:01 PM
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Now Boston hosts the Yankees in what has to be the strangest home opener ever at Fenway.
April 7th, 2011 at 3:53:22 PM
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Not picking on Seattle fans but... they were almost at the bottom of every list last year. How about their losing streaks being longer than the average team.
7 times last year (6 was the expectation) they had longer losing streaks than their current 4 in a row.
They also settled into their 38% win percentage quite quickly.
7 times last year (6 was the expectation) they had longer losing streaks than their current 4 in a row.
| total win | total lose | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| streak | streaks | length | streaks | streak |
| 1 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 4 |
| 1 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5 |
| 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5 |
| 1 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4 |
| 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 7 |
| 1 | 35 | total | 35 | 2 |
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | |||
| 1 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 5 | |||
| 61 | total wins | total losses | 101 |
They also settled into their 38% win percentage quite quickly.
April 7th, 2011 at 3:59:55 PM
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Quote: buzzpaffWho's wife gets the first baseman's paycheck ? Naturally, why shouldn't she !
"When you pay the first baseman every month who gets the money?"
"Every dollar of it. After all the man earns it."
"So who gets it?"
"Why shouldn't he? He's entiteld to it. Sometimes his wife comes down and colelcts it."
"Whose wife?"
"Absolutely."
"All I want to know is what's the guy's name on first base!"
"Oh, no! What's on second."
"I'm not asking you who's on second!!"
"Who's on first."
Sorry. I've really listened to it too much.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
April 8th, 2011 at 5:46:33 AM
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I have re-read the WoO site and cannot find this, if I missed it please let me know.
What % of MLB games are decided by exactly ONE run? Reason I ask is I am trying out my streak system with cheapo bets and saw that if I took the Pirates on the moneyline I could get +110 and if I took the Rockies on the run-line I could get +135. Only way to lose would be a 1 run Rockies win. (All lines Bodog.)
I do not consider this "hedging" but rather arbitrage or like playing a middle in the NFL.
I see the "average" runs WIz has up there but I'm not sure that can be directly used. Or can it?
What % of MLB games are decided by exactly ONE run? Reason I ask is I am trying out my streak system with cheapo bets and saw that if I took the Pirates on the moneyline I could get +110 and if I took the Rockies on the run-line I could get +135. Only way to lose would be a 1 run Rockies win. (All lines Bodog.)
I do not consider this "hedging" but rather arbitrage or like playing a middle in the NFL.
I see the "average" runs WIz has up there but I'm not sure that can be directly used. Or can it?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
April 8th, 2011 at 9:15:06 PM
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Quote: AZDuffmanI have re-read the WoO site and cannot find this, if I missed it please let me know.
What % of MLB games are decided by exactly ONE run? Reason I ask is I am trying out my streak system with cheapo bets and saw that if I took the Pirates on the moneyline I could get +110 and if I took the Rockies on the run-line I could get +135. Only way to lose would be a 1 run Rockies win. (All lines Bodog.)
I do not consider this "hedging" but rather arbitrage or like playing a middle in the NFL.
I see the "average" runs WIz has up there but I'm not sure that can be directly used. Or can it?
Check out http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
I have also not seen those numbers at the WoO site.
For season 2010 MLB that average was 48.8-1 run games or ~30.12% of the 162 games
average was 29.3-2 run games or ~18.48% of the 162 games
freq diff % or less
1464 1 30.12%
898 2 18.48% 48.60%
596 3 12.26% 60.86%
570 4 11.73% 72.59%
400 5 8.23% 80.82%
352 6 7.24% 88.07%
168 7 3.46% 91.52%
154 8 3.17% 94.69%
90 9 1.85% 96.54%
62 10 1.28% 97.82%
40 11 0.82% 98.64%
34 12 0.70% 99.34%
12 13 0.25% 99.59%
10 14 0.21% 99.79%
4 15 0.08% 99.88%
0 16 0.00% 99.88%
2 17 0.04% 99.92%
2 18 0.04% 99.96%
0 19 0.00% 99.96%
2 20 0.04% 100.00%
3.41 average
April 8th, 2011 at 9:39:53 PM
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Current MLB streaks.
3 more 4+ streaks BUSTED today.
1) Boston 0-6 winless! Ouch Bean Town! Losing streak of 6 BUSTED. now 1-6
2) Tampa Bay 0-6 winless! Losing streak of 6 BUSTED, with 5 in the 9th. now 1-6
3) Cleveland current win streak at 4. Continues to 5 with a win over Seattle.
4) Texas 6-0 Perfect! They are off to Baltimore where the Orioles just had their 4 game win streak BUSTED. Postponed!
5) Colorado current win streak is at 4. BUSTED. Pirates win in 14 innings 4-3. A 1 run difference.
6) Seattle has a nice 4 game losing streak currently. Continues to 5 with a loss to Cleveland.
Fun BUSTING streaks over 3 both ways.
april 9th Texas streak BUSTED
3 more 4+ streaks BUSTED today.
1) Boston 0-6 winless! Ouch Bean Town! Losing streak of 6 BUSTED. now 1-6
2) Tampa Bay 0-6 winless! Losing streak of 6 BUSTED, with 5 in the 9th. now 1-6
3) Cleveland current win streak at 4. Continues to 5 with a win over Seattle.
4) Texas 6-0 Perfect! They are off to Baltimore where the Orioles just had their 4 game win streak BUSTED. Postponed!
5) Colorado current win streak is at 4. BUSTED. Pirates win in 14 innings 4-3. A 1 run difference.
6) Seattle has a nice 4 game losing streak currently. Continues to 5 with a loss to Cleveland.
Fun BUSTING streaks over 3 both ways.
april 9th Texas streak BUSTED
April 10th, 2011 at 10:59:26 AM
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Current MLB streaks worth noting.
Longest current streaks
Cleveland 6 wins in a row
Seattle 6 losses in a row
They again play each other today.
Both teams streaks started on the 3rd game of the season for each team. Cleveland was 0-2 before their current 6 game win streak and Seattle was 2-0 before their current 6 game lose streak.
American League ALL other streaks are at 1.
Either a win or a loss. I do not know if I have ever seen that before.
National League. No streaks over length 4.
Longest current streaks
Cleveland 6 wins in a row
Seattle 6 losses in a row
They again play each other today.
Both teams streaks started on the 3rd game of the season for each team. Cleveland was 0-2 before their current 6 game win streak and Seattle was 2-0 before their current 6 game lose streak.
American League ALL other streaks are at 1.
Either a win or a loss. I do not know if I have ever seen that before.
National League. No streaks over length 4.
April 10th, 2011 at 11:40:19 AM
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Quote: guido111Current MLB streaks.
3 more 4+ streaks BUSTED today.
1) Boston 0-6 winless! Ouch Bean Town! Losing streak of 6 BUSTED. now 1-6
2) Tampa Bay 0-6 winless! Losing streak of 6 BUSTED, with 5 in the 9th. now 1-6
3) Cleveland current win streak at 4. Continues to 5 with a win over Seattle.
4) Texas 6-0 Perfect! They are off to Baltimore where the Orioles just had their 4 game win streak BUSTED. Postponed!
5) Colorado current win streak is at 4. BUSTED. Pirates win in 14 innings 4-3. A 1 run difference.
6) Seattle has a nice 4 game losing streak currently. Continues to 5 with a loss to Cleveland.
Fun BUSTING streaks over 3 both ways.
april 9th Texas streak BUSTED
Only Cleveland is killing me right now.
Take a 3rd or lower place team (use last years place until game 16 this year) and bet against their wins when they have a 3 game or more winning streak.
BEWARE betting against a losing streak. It is easier to keep losing than winning.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
April 10th, 2011 at 12:17:56 PM
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Quote: AZDuffmanOnly Cleveland is killing me right now.
Take a 3rd or lower place team (use last years place until game 16 this year) and bet against their wins when they have a 3 game or more winning streak.
BEWARE betting against a losing streak. It is easier to keep losing than winning.
FYI: I updated my 1st post on page 4 showing all win and lose streaks from MLB 2010 season.
April 10th, 2011 at 12:32:53 PM
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Quote: guido111FYI: I updated my 1st post on page 4 showing all win and lose streaks from MLB 2010 season.
Where were you last month when I built my spreadsheet? :-)
Actually one thing has me wondering is when there is value in the run-line. I found an interesting method where you bet the moneyline with part of your bet and the run line with another, the other being the amount you win from the money line. I'm so new to betting baseball I have not looked at those numbers yet. Any advice appriciated.
One thing is betting even microstakes at first keeps me interested in MBL for the first time since the Pirates were good. Looking at sports betting I figre MLB betting has a few things going for it:
1. No matter your strategy there is almost always a bet available
2. No ties, no spread (except run line.) So you are just picking up or down
3. If you want to make any side-income or more at sports you cannot do so w/o betting MLB.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
