Election Betting
Online offshore books I have seen -185.Quote: MDawgAt the peak what was the Trump line? Minus what?
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Supposedly a bit over -200 on Polymarket
however, there are some suspicions of market manipulation/wash trading.
Quote: EvenBobNate Silver has said that if people could see the sausage being made of how polling is done they would never trust another one. You can make a poll say anything you wan it to say and that's what they do, a lot of them. They are guns for hire and will do whatever they're paid to do. Not all of them but enough of them. This is why pollsters are always at each other's throats because they know what's going on and they do not trust each other.
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I read an article by a polling expert who said that there are three possible reasons why a poll can be significantly wrong:
1. Chance (we would call it variance)
2. Incompetence
3. Deception
And he said that "deception" must be on the list.
So, as voting totals come in what I will be looking for is: Which polls were buggered and in which direction? Like, the CNN poll recently released which has Harris winning Penn., Wisc. and Mich. by something like 5 points each. Maybe that will indeed be the correct result, but it is certainly an outlier - and it might be wrong. Or the recent Des Moines newspaper poll that has Harris winning Iowa by 3 points while another poll on the same day has Trump winning Iowa by 9 points. Huh?
Quote: gordonm888
I read an article by a polling expert who said that there are three possible reasons why a poll can be significantly wrong:
1. Chance (we would call it variance)
2. Incompetence
3. Deception
And he said that "deception" must be on the list.
So, as voting totals come in what I will be looking for is: Which polls were buggered and in which direction? Like, the CNN poll recently released which has Harris winning Penn., Wisc. and Mich. by something like 5 points each. Maybe that will indeed be the correct result, but it is certainly an outlier - and it might be wrong. Or the recent Des Moines newspaper poll that has Harris winning Iowa by 3 points while another poll on the same day has Trump winning Iowa by 9 points. Huh?
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Deception
With a 1% response rate
Wouldn't pollsters be tempted to use the same respondents over and over. Too these people, somebody responding is gold. Maybe pollsters share this info for money.
Polling is a business so there is an incentive to increase profits. Especially when the methodology is usually opaque
Quote: FinsRuleBovada had -210
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What if I were willing to put up money for a -250 Trump line. Would there be any takers here?
That is my line anyway.
I missed that since I'm no longer allowed to access Bovada.Quote: FinsRuleBovada had -210
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Quote: MDawgQuote: FinsRuleBovada had -210
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What if I were willing to put up money for a -250 Trump line. Would there be any takers here?
That is my line anyway.
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If you're saying you are betting Trump at -250, then yes I would take the other side of it with you.
Quote: MDawgWhat I meant is does anyone want to bet that Trump will win at -250 with me as the bookie.
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Ah. No thanks. Good luck.
Quote: terapinedAlso the biggest event in Iowa is a bike ride
RAGBRAI
The Wizard should participate
Registers (newspaper) annual great bike ride across Iowa
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Thanks. I have heard about this. Thank you for reminding me. Let me give serious thought to it.
Quote: WizardTime for a Saturday night update on the odds.
PredictIt:
Harris 55% = -122
Trump 45% = +122
Pinnacle:
Harris +108
Trump -126
I hope somebody smarter than me is arbing these bets.
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A day later, here are the Sunday lines as of 4:01 PM PST. Moderate movement in Trump's favor.
PredictIt:
Harris 53% = -113
Trump 47% = +113
Pinnacle:
Harris +119
Trump -136
I'm still looking to bet on Harris against trusted forum members.
Quote: gordonm888
So, as voting totals come in what I will be looking for is: Which polls were buggered and in which direction? Like, the CNN poll recently released which has Harris winning Penn., Wisc. and Mich. by something like 5 points each. Maybe that will indeed be the correct result, but it is certainly an outlier - and it might be wrong. Or the recent Des Moines newspaper poll that has Harris winning Iowa by 3 points while another poll on the same day has Trump winning Iowa by 9 points. Huh?
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Three Iowa polls were released yesterday and two of them, Emerson and AtlasIntel each had Trump up by 10 points. The Seltzer Des Moines Register has Harris up by three points. I've read at least four articles by people I trust say the Des Moines Register poll is totally wrong. There is no way that there would be a 13-point discrepancy this late in the game especially not with AtlasIntel who was the number one best pollster in 2020.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888
So, as voting totals come in what I will be looking for is: Which polls were buggered and in which direction? Like, the CNN poll recently released which has Harris winning Penn., Wisc. and Mich. by something like 5 points each. Maybe that will indeed be the correct result, but it is certainly an outlier - and it might be wrong. Or the recent Des Moines newspaper poll that has Harris winning Iowa by 3 points while another poll on the same day has Trump winning Iowa by 9 points. Huh?
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Three Iowa polls were released yesterday and two of them, Emerson and AtlasIntel each had Trump up by 10 points. The Seltzer Des Moines Register has Harris up by three points. I've read at least four articles by people I trust say the Des Moines Register poll is totally wrong. There is no way that there would be a 13-point discrepancy this late in the game especially not with AtlasIntel who was the number one best pollster in 2020.
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As far as I can see, there was no R +10 AtlasIntel poll of Iowa yesterday.
Prove me wrong with a link.
Quote: ams288Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888
So, as voting totals come in what I will be looking for is: Which polls were buggered and in which direction? Like, the CNN poll recently released which has Harris winning Penn., Wisc. and Mich. by something like 5 points each. Maybe that will indeed be the correct result, but it is certainly an outlier - and it might be wrong. Or the recent Des Moines newspaper poll that has Harris winning Iowa by 3 points while another poll on the same day has Trump winning Iowa by 9 points. Huh?
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Three Iowa polls were released yesterday and two of them, Emerson and AtlasIntel each had Trump up by 10 points. The Seltzer Des Moines Register has Harris up by three points. I've read at least four articles by people I trust say the Des Moines Register poll is totally wrong. There is no way that there would be a 13-point discrepancy this late in the game especially not with AtlasIntel who was the number one best pollster in 2020.
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As far as I can see, there was no R +10 AtlasIntel poll of Iowa yesterday.
Prove me wrong with a link.
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link to Iowa polls showing yesterday's Emerson poll with Trump +10
I don't know anything about an Atlas Intel Poll of Iowa that EvenBob referred to.
What is the max you will take, and will you put that amount up in escrow?Quote: MDawgWhat I meant is does anyone want to bet that Trump will win at -250 with me as the bookie.
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Obviously since you can probably get him at -130 right now if you looked hard.Quote: unJonQuote: MDawgWhat I meant is does anyone want to bet that Trump will win at -250 with me as the bookie.
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Ah. No thanks. Good luck.
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Quote: WizardQuote: WizardTime for a Saturday night update on the odds.
PredictIt:
Harris 55% = -122
Trump 45% = +122
Pinnacle:
Harris +108
Trump -126
I hope somebody smarter than me is arbing these bets.
link to original post
A day later, here are the Sunday lines as of 4:01 PM PST. Moderate movement in Trump's favor.
PredictIt:
Harris 53% = -113
Trump 47% = +113
Pinnacle:
Harris +119
Trump -136
I'm still looking to bet on Harris against trusted forum members.
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If that is right shouldn't one mortgage the house to get both positive moneylines and get at least 13% return in a few days? On Wall St you would get a killer bonus for that!
Quote: gordonm888Quote: ams288Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888
So, as voting totals come in what I will be looking for is: Which polls were buggered and in which direction? Like, the CNN poll recently released which has Harris winning Penn., Wisc. and Mich. by something like 5 points each. Maybe that will indeed be the correct result, but it is certainly an outlier - and it might be wrong. Or the recent Des Moines newspaper poll that has Harris winning Iowa by 3 points while another poll on the same day has Trump winning Iowa by 9 points. Huh?
link to original post
Three Iowa polls were released yesterday and two of them, Emerson and AtlasIntel each had Trump up by 10 points. The Seltzer Des Moines Register has Harris up by three points. I've read at least four articles by people I trust say the Des Moines Register poll is totally wrong. There is no way that there would be a 13-point discrepancy this late in the game especially not with AtlasIntel who was the number one best pollster in 2020.
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As far as I can see, there was no R +10 AtlasIntel poll of Iowa yesterday.
Prove me wrong with a link.
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link to Iowa polls showing yesterday's Emerson poll with Trump +10
I don't know anything about an Atlas Intel Poll of Iowa that EvenBob referred to.
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I don’t think anyone other than Evenbob knows about the nonexistent AtlasIntel Iowa poll.
Quote: ams288Quote: gordonm888Quote: ams288Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888
So, as voting totals come in what I will be looking for is: Which polls were buggered and in which direction? Like, the CNN poll recently released which has Harris winning Penn., Wisc. and Mich. by something like 5 points each. Maybe that will indeed be the correct result, but it is certainly an outlier - and it might be wrong. Or the recent Des Moines newspaper poll that has Harris winning Iowa by 3 points while another poll on the same day has Trump winning Iowa by 9 points. Huh?
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Three Iowa polls were released yesterday and two of them, Emerson and AtlasIntel each had Trump up by 10 points. The Seltzer Des Moines Register has Harris up by three points. I've read at least four articles by people I trust say the Des Moines Register poll is totally wrong. There is no way that there would be a 13-point discrepancy this late in the game especially not with AtlasIntel who was the number one best pollster in 2020.
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As far as I can see, there was no R +10 AtlasIntel poll of Iowa yesterday.
Prove me wrong with a link.
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link to Iowa polls showing yesterday's Emerson poll with Trump +10
I don't know anything about an Atlas Intel Poll of Iowa that EvenBob referred to.
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I don’t think anyone other than Evenbob knows about the nonexistent AtlasIntel Iowa poll.
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Weird fact
Atlasintel ain't even based in the USA
It's a Brazilian company
They also do polling for all the elections in South America of course being a Brazilian company
Sometimes they are on the money, sometimes they are way off. They use social media to find likely voters. Their track record in the US is one presidential election. A sample of 1 ain't much of a sample. If you include all elections in South America, their track record is not very impressive
British "mega" poll (Folcdata) predicts a Harris win but only by the barest of margins
they used large scale online polling of more than 31,000
they use a technique which they and others claim is more accurate than U.S. polling
it is called MRP which stands for multi level regression and post-stratification
their data showed Trump winning throughout the campaign and it has only moved towards Harris in the final update
they also claim that the election may not be close as almost everybody says it will be
.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/swing-state-mrp-mega-poll-00186941
.
The polls tend to err as a group in one direction or the other, so a fairly decisive win by either candidate is still possible.
In the history of modern polling, there’s never been a race where the final polls showed such a close contest. If the poll averages are exactly right down to the decimal (they will not be), Harris would barely need to outperform the polls to prevail.
In this interesting chart from the NYT today, the polls are extrapolated to run in two different ways - inaccurate the way they ran in 2020, or inaccurate the way they ran in 2022.
Latest polling averages
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: WizardQuote: WizardTime for a Saturday night update on the odds.
PredictIt:
Harris 55% = -122
Trump 45% = +122
Pinnacle:
Harris +108
Trump -126
I hope somebody smarter than me is arbing these bets.
link to original post
A day later, here are the Sunday lines as of 4:01 PM PST. Moderate movement in Trump's favor.
PredictIt:
Harris 53% = -113
Trump 47% = +113
Pinnacle:
Harris +119
Trump -136
I'm still looking to bet on Harris against trusted forum members.
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If that is right shouldn't one mortgage the house to get both positive moneylines and get at least 13% return in a few days? On Wall St you would get a killer bonus for that!
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I understand there may be some trouble getting that much down.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat is the max you will take, and will you put that amount up in escrow?Quote: MDawgWhat I meant is does anyone want to bet that Trump will win at -250 with me as the bookie.
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My line is -250, in your next post you seem to be saying no to that?
I am not around right now but we'll be back from this two month or so trip shortly before F1 and then in Vegas for F1. At that time I can either collect whatever is deposited for this action with Wizard if you lose, or pay whatever is due, to Wizard to give to you. Since Wizard would be holding your funds you take no risk.
This is assuming Wizard would be willing to handle this, but I do not see why not.
I'm not dumb enough to take that bad of a line since I could get way better. For now, I am not betting on the election, I haven't heard convincing evidence either way for me to believe there's a known advantage. Arbing seems like a pain in the ass.Quote: MDawgQuote: AxelWolfWhat is the max you will take, and will you put that amount up in escrow?Quote: MDawgWhat I meant is does anyone want to bet that Trump will win at -250 with me as the bookie.
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My line is -250, in your next post you seem to be saying no to that?
I am not around right now but we'll be back from this two month or so trip shortly before F1 and then in Vegas for F1. At that time I can either collect whatever is deposited for this action with Wizard if you lose, or pay whatever is due, to Wizard to give to you. Since Wizard would be holding your funds you take no risk.
This is assuming Wizard would be willing to handle this, but I do not see why not.
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However, I know people who made bets long ago and they are looking to hedge off for large amounts, and they might be willing to take a bad line if they can get enough down. That's why I asked how much you are willing to take, and if you would put it in escrow.
Why ask how much I am willing to take, if you are not willing to put up anything to begin with?
Quote: MDawgThis is assuming Wizard would be willing to handle this, but I do not see why not.
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I'm willing to escrow the money. However, Trump -250 is a terrible bet, so doubt anyone will take it.
If you had a four-state parley, all at even odds, and you only needed to win one, would you be considered the favorite?
I think a broom may be in order. All my signs indicate women are going to make a big difference in the election, and they are trending in a way that I don't think election-day numbers can offset.
Quote: billryanAfter far too much research and listening over the last few months, my final election map has Harris at 269, and four states being tossups. She needs to win one, while Trump needs to win all.
If you had a four-state parley, all at even odds, and you only needed to win one, would you be considered the favorite?
I think a broom may be in order. All my signs indicate women are going to make a big difference in the election, and they are trending in a way that I don't think election-day numbers can offset.
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Harris has as big gender gap to overcome. I have heard “year of the woman” multiple times since 1984. I don’t see it this year. Women already vote in numbers similar to men.
Quote: WizardI'm feeling good about my earlier prediction that the only flips from 2020 will be Arizona and Georgia.
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I think Trump wins Nevada by a whisker, but Rosen wins, and the Ds keep the Senate.
Quote: FinsRuleHow exactly do the D’s keep the senate? Are they flipping one? Or is Montana going to somehow stay D?
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I'm unsure how to answer that in a way that concerns election betting, but that is what I see in my crystal ball.
Quote: FinsRuleHow exactly do the D’s keep the senate? Are they flipping one? Or is Montana going to somehow stay D?
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The Senate is currently 51-49 Dems. If I understand it correctly, blue seats in Texas and Florida are likely to flip, making it 51-49 the other way. A blue Ohio seat could go either way. If that flips, it will be 52-48 Reps. Of course, there are other close races, but those are the three closest.
More information from 538.
Quote: WizardQuote: FinsRuleHow exactly do the D’s keep the senate? Are they flipping one? Or is Montana going to somehow stay D?
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The Senate is currently 51-49 Dems. If I understand it correctly, blue seats in Texas and Florida are likely to flip, making it 51-49 the other way. A blue Ohio seat could go either way. If that flips, it will be 52-48 Reps. Of course, there are other close races, but those are the three closest.
More information from 538.
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That is simply wrong. Republicans hold the seats in Texas and Florida and most likely will retain them. I expect Sherrod Brown to win in Ohio, as voters split their tickets. Another round of horrible non-politician candidates will cost the GOP another election cycle.
On the other hand, a victory by one party may cause a Senator or two to switch parties or at least who they caucus with.
An interesting note: Gov. Justice should win the Senate seat in West Virginia. Getting him to vote may be the problem. He is the wealthiest man in WV and routinely changes his schedule to suit his desires. Senate rules say he must be present to vote, and I'll wager he misses more votes than any other Senator for the next four years. He hasn't moved to DC, or even said he would. As Governor, he rarely was in the state capital and spent more time coaching his high school basketball team than at Executive duties. His constant companion is an old bulldog that won't be allowed on the Senate floor. He's also a former Democrat who switched parties for convenience sake.
Oddly specific. lol
Quote: billryanQuote: WizardQuote: FinsRuleHow exactly do the D’s keep the senate? Are they flipping one? Or is Montana going to somehow stay D?
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The Senate is currently 51-49 Dems. If I understand it correctly, blue seats in Texas and Florida are likely to flip, making it 51-49 the other way. A blue Ohio seat could go either way. If that flips, it will be 52-48 Reps. Of course, there are other close races, but those are the three closest.
More information from 538.
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That is simply wrong. Republicans hold the seats in Texas and Florida and most likely will retain them. I expect Sherrod Brown to win in Ohio, as voters split their tickets. Another round of horrible non-politician candidates will cost the GOP another election cycle.
On the other hand, a victory by one party may cause a Senator or two to switch parties or at least who they caucus with.
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Montana and West Virginia will in all likelihood be flipping from D to R. No idea which seats are expected to flip the other way. But the calendar worked to the extreme advantage of D the past two cycles and just by math that could only happen 3 times in a row by absurdly unrealistic scenarios, so there are way more D seats being contested than R this year and that will also be the case in 2026.
BTW- three weeks ago, I expected a GOP sweep
The Montana seat held by a Democratic senator is up for re-election and the republican candidate leads by something like 6.5 points in the polls. And,after all, it is Montana.
Those two seats are highly likely to switch giving the Republicans 51 seats, unless they lose one of their three senatorial seats in elections that the media have labeled as "battlegrounds." One of those is Ted Cruz, who leads by 4 points in Texas. I think the other two Republican seats are in Florida and Missouri and RCP labels both of them as likely for the Republicans.
The Ohio seat currently held by Casey-D is very tight with the Republican candidate shown to have an 0.4% advantage on RCP. If that seat goes Red that would create the possibility that the Republicans will hold 52 Senate seats.
Quote: billryanThat is simply wrong.
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I'll lay 2 to 1 Republicans win the Senate, with 50-50 being a push. Do you accept?
Quote: WizardQuote: billryanThat is simply wrong.
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I'll lay 2 to 1 Republicans win the Senate, with 50-50 being a push. Do you accept?
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You were wrong when you said the two Democrat Senators from Texas and Florida would lose. They don't exist.
I'm not betting on the fate of my country. I think it is in very poor taste.
Quote: billryanQuote: WizardQuote: billryanThat is simply wrong.
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I'll lay 2 to 1 Republicans win the Senate, with 50-50 being a push. Do you accept?
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You were wrong when you said the two Democrat Senators from Texas and Florida would lose. They don't exist.
I'm not betting on the fate of my country. I think it is in very poor taste.
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You’re posting in an election betting thread!
Quote: WizardQuote: billryanThat is simply wrong.
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I'll lay 2 to 1 Republicans win the Senate, with 50-50 being a push. Do you accept?
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Want to make sure I’m interpreting this correctly. I win $100 if Republicans get 51 senators? You get $200 if Dems get 51 senators? If it’s 50-50, push? If those are the terms, I am definitely in.
Quote: billryanQuote: WizardQuote: billryanThat is simply wrong.
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I'll lay 2 to 1 Republicans win the Senate, with 50-50 being a push. Do you accept?
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You were wrong when you said the two Democrat Senators from Texas and Florida would lose. They don't exist.
I'm not betting on the fate of my country. I think it is in very poor taste.
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Maybe off topic, but I don’t think someone really believes something unless they are willing to wager on it. If they aren’t willing, they may think they believe something but really they are just wishing it were so.
Quote: billryanThe Democrats do not have a 51--49 edge right now. The Republicans have a 49-47 edge, but four Independent Senators caucus with the Democrats. It is not at all beyond the realm of possibility that some non-MAGA Sentors choose not to caucus with the Republicans.
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Good point, all you guys betting with one another probably should clarify what exactly you mean by these party labels, that several senators avoid applying to themselves despite who they informally caucus with.
Quote: FinsRuleQuote: billryanQuote: WizardQuote: billryanThat is simply wrong.
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I'll lay 2 to 1 Republicans win the Senate, with 50-50 being a push. Do you accept?
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You were wrong when you said the two Democrat Senators from Texas and Florida would lose. They don't exist.
I'm not betting on the fate of my country. I think it is in very poor taste.
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You’re posting in an election betting thread!
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I post in this thread also and I'm not betting
EB never bets here and he's the forums most prolific poster
What's your point?
Quote: unJonQuote: billryanQuote: WizardQuote: billryanThat is simply wrong.
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I'll lay 2 to 1 Republicans win the Senate, with 50-50 being a push. Do you accept?
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You were wrong when you said the two Democrat Senators from Texas and Florida would lose. They don't exist.
I'm not betting on the fate of my country. I think it is in very poor taste.
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Maybe off topic, but I don’t think someone really believes something unless they are willing to wager on it. If they aren’t willing, they may think they believe something but really they are just wishing it were so.
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That's absurd
I believe there was a conspiracy to kill JFK
How do I lay a bet on that ROTFL
Quote: unJon
Maybe off topic, but I don’t think someone really believes something unless they are willing to wager on it. If they aren’t willing, they may think they believe something but really they are just wishing it were so.
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Quite a broad brush. There are certain things that are inappropriate to bet on. Someone dying, injury, illness, war, committing crimes. For a winning bettor is right to celebrate and these are things that should only be mourned.
Being politics has consequences that include these things, considering politics itself inappropriate to bet on is a reasonable extension and I respect it.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: billryanThe Democrats do not have a 51--49 edge right now. The Republicans have a 49-47 edge, but four Independent Senators caucus with the Democrats. It is not at all beyond the realm of possibility that some non-MAGA Sentors choose not to caucus with the Republicans.
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Good point, all you guys betting with one another probably should clarify what exactly you mean by these party labels, that several senators avoid applying to themselves despite who they informally caucus with.
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A proper bet would be whether a Democrat would be the Senate Majority Leader.
I hope we can return to the Days of the Gang of Fourteen.
